So at Farthing Party this year, I was on a panel about the (relative) lack of young award-winners in the SF field. I'm not going to talk about the panel particularly, as if people have read Rene Walling's
stastics posts on Tor.com re: ages of winners and nominees, you've heard most of the relevant information that was presented there. Rene minimized the upwards trend in terms of nominees and winners, but there is one, and what significance people attribute to that is mostly a question of where they're coming at the question from.
What I want to talk about here is instead something that I noticed while preparing for the panel, to wit: The degree to which the 'Big Three' (Analog, Asimov's, and F&SF) have (until very recently) utterly dominated the short fiction Hugos (i.e.
short story,
novelette, and
novella).
This is something which is probably obvious to people who've been paying attention, but over the course of my lifetime, there has been
one year that non Big 3 markets held under 50% of the Hugo nominations for short fiction, and that year was 2010, with 3 nominations from
Asimov's and 14 from everywhere else. 2011 was evenly split between Big 3 and non-Big 3 markets, and there are only 4 other years (1986, 2005, 2006, and 2009) when over 2/3rds of the nominations didn't come from the Big 3. (All of those were a 9-6 split in favor of the Big 3, except for 2006, which was 8-7.)
There are several things one can learn from this, especially if you take a closer look at the data, but the first is this:
If you wanted to be nominated for a Hugo, it really helped to be published in Analog, Asimov's, or F&SF.Oh, and did I mention that the editors for those magazines have (respectively) been in their posts for 33, 7, and 15 years, and that the 7-year veteran (Sheila Williams) has worked for
Asimov's since 1982?
I don't have anything against any of those editors. But when you realize that two of the markets that used to get a reasonable number of non-Big 3 nominations in the '80s, '90s, and '00s were
Omni &
Scifiction (both edited by Ellen Datlow), it starts to become painfully obvious that for much of the last 30+ years, if you wanted to be recognized as a standout writer of short fiction, you were more or less required to try to tailor your material to the tastes of several specific editors. And if they didn't like your work? Unless your name was Rachel Swirsky (whose first nominations were stories from Tor.com), you had to have a career as a novelist if you wanted to win anything.
The results in recent years are somewhat heartening, I will confess, though I feel the seeming diversity of nomination sources in 2010 is misleading (a lot of stories were original to well-established authors' collections, or out of anthologies of much the same stature as
Starlight back in the day). The data set is too small to draw any real conclusions from it, but it looks like the ranks of the magazines Hugo nominators deem as award-worthy now include Clarkesworld, Tor.com, and Lightspeed - and maybe Subterranean, but that's more their line of original novellas than the magazine. Strange Horizons isn't on the list, despite one nomination back in 2007 (Benjamin Rosenblum's "The House Beyond Your Sky"). Jim Baen's Universe, Science Fiction Age, Omni and Scifiction were, but they're all dead now. Realms of Fantasy, Beneath Ceaseless Skies, Fantasy, IGMS, Apex, or Daily Science Fiction? Not on the nominators' radar, to all appearances. Interzone barely is, with 4 nominations since 1989.
Part of this is a question of which markets actually publish Novellas and Novelettes. Pretty much all the pro-rate online magazines except BCS and IGMS (and Tor.com, I guess) cap stories at 10,000 words or less, giving the Big 3 a huge boost because they publish multiple stories at that length each year. Another factor is genre - Analog only publishes SF, Asimov's skews heavily towards it, while F&SF is about 50/50 - and SF has consistently proven to be more popular with the Hugo votership than fantasy. As such, it's not surprising that Realms of Fantasy, Fantasy, and BCS haven't gotten Hugo nominations, while Lightspeed got them in its very first year of existence.
Another part of it is obviously what large portions of the nominating pool are reading. There have never been more than 1000-odd people who submitted nominations for the Hugo, and it's important to note that from 2007 onward (the years for which I have easily accessed stats, via
this page) 30 nominations almost always got works onto the short fiction ballots. Up until very recently, being published in the Big 3 was the best way to get past that nomination threshold.
I'm personally hoping that in years to come, word of mouth about stories in other online venues will spread the net wider, so I can't just point to six or seven markets* where there used to be three, and be able to say with confidence, "The majority of nominees will come from these sources, and will be authors who are already well-known."
But I wouldn't bet on it.
*: It's too early to draw conclusions, especially because 2010 had neither Analog nor F&SF on the Hugo ballot, but F&SF had no stories nominated for a Hugo in 2011. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in 2012.