Game Theory

Upward mobility under meritocratic conditions is analysed as a recognition order in which a single cardinal metric of credentials and ranks rations standing and access. The paper’s central mechanism is ‘signal decay’, the fall in the value of an attained position as the strategy for reaching it crowds, a result that holds even where credentials build real capacity and that is distinct from both positional congestion and rising inequality. A stylised assurance game shows the conforming order to be a stable (...) equilibrium collectively dominated by a plural alternative the population cannot reach unilaterally, with its degradedness rising in the tightness of the gate. The order cannot correct itself, because its would-be correctors are the winners the metric selected, so the corrective never reaches the evaluation layer and the reforms it can pass deepen signal decay on the positional margin. When ascent fails, the outcome is reported as the verdict of the metric rather than owned as a judgement. The paper offers a discriminating prediction that separates its mechanism from inequality. It reads the order against the European Union’s prohibition on social scoring, and proposes an external corrective that restores answerable judgement while keeping the metric as a check. (shrink)

We introduce topomatics, a formal framework for the analysis of normative interaction between actors. Each actor is defined by an axiomatic code Ω(A) = ⟨O(A), F(A)⟩: a finite weighted system of obligations and prohibitions interpreted over a finite set of possible worlds. The normative significance ρᴀ(Oᵢ) of each obligation is defined as the total weight of prohibitions logically violated by its non-fulfilment, inducing an endogenous ranking of the code from which the normative core Oᶜᵒʳᵉ(A, θ) and the target world W*(A, (...) θ) are derived at each threshold θ ∈ (0, 1]. We prove four theorems on the normative core: (T1) W*(A, θ) is anti-monotone in θ; (T2) the maximum feasible threshold Θᴀ = sup{θ : W*(A, θ) ≠ ∅} is well-defined and attained; (T3) core coherence is equivalent to the existence of a world satisfying all core formulae simultaneously; (T4) core incoherence implies positive internal tension Sᵢⁿₜ(A) > 0, but not conversely. For two actors A and B we define the feasibility set Φ(A, B) = {(θᴀ, θᴮ) : θᴀ ≤ Θᴀ, θᴮ ≤ Θᴮ, W*(A, θᴀ) ∩ W*(B, θᴮ) ≠ ∅} and establish: (T5) a necessary and sufficient condition for Φ(A, B) ≠ ∅; (T6) a sufficient condition for Φ(A, B) = ∅ via the mirror core configuration; (T7) a threshold asymmetry criterion identifying which actor bears the greater burden of core reduction. Theorem T8 gives the three-way structural classification: mutual feasibility (θ₀, θ₀) ∈ Φ; deferred feasibility Φ ≠ ∅ but (θ₀, θ₀) ∉ Φ; and joint infeasibility Φ = ∅. The framework is related to STIT-logic and input/output logic; its distinguishing feature is that the normative ranking of the code is derived endogenously from the conflict structure rather than imposed externally. (shrink)

Metric governance does more than measure research; it governs recognition, and in doing so it reorders the relations through which knowledge is produced. This paper argues that the commensuration of academic standing onto a single scale makes recognition scarce, and that the scarcity produces two pathologies at once. Horizontally it adversarialises researchers, turning colleagues into rivals for a positional good. Vertically it produces ‘epistemic clientelism’, the moderation of independent judgement to remain legible to the patrons who control advancement. These compose (...) one ‘recognition game’ rather than two separate complaints. Through ‘evaluative-layer capping’, the game rewards work that extends inherited standards and misrecognises the generative work that would reopen them, while the use of a metric as a verdict launders the answerability for the misrecognition. A simple assurance game shows why the degraded order is stable although few would choose it and no one need act in bad faith, with the better culture held out of reach by the risk of pursuing it alone. Because metrics were themselves a reform against unaccountable discretion, the corrective cannot be a return to discretion. The prescription that judgement should govern indicators already belongs to the responsible-metrics reforms; what they lack, and what the paper supplies as ‘epistemic governance’, is the coordinating device that makes the better equilibrium safe to reach, an arrangement that restores answerable, owned judgement while keeping the metric as a check rather than a verdict. (shrink)

Scientific gatekeeping has traditionally concentrated the power to validate claims in journals, referees, editorial boards, professional societies, prestige networks, and institutional review processes. This manuscript analyzes a different strategic condition: claim-status audit becomes portable, partially mechanizable, and non-permissioned. The central question is not whether journals adopt a new internal review procedure, but what happens when institutions can no longer prevent structured claim-status audit from being run externally. The Admissibility and Standing Constraint framework (AASC), operationalized through the Universal Exactness Audit Protocol (...) (UEAP), supplies the audit grammar. A capable language model, human evaluator, or hybrid system supplies an execution layer; it does not author the protocol’s target, carrier, blocker, status, laundering, severity, or reportability categories. When the protocol and a target manuscript are placed in the same evaluation context, the process can produce a registry-style classification of claim target, requested report status, carrier, scope, calibration ancestry, unresolved blockers, possible report-status laundering, severity, and strongest reportable formulation. The paper distinguishes four layers that distributed-audit rhetoric often collapses: audit execution, audit publication, audit standing, and audit consequence. Execution can be open without every output becoming authoritative. Audit standing is earned through target fidelity, basis declaration, execution provenance, passage grounding, registry completeness, reproducibility, severity discipline, counteraudit, and right of reply. Consequence is a further social or institutional response that should be proportional to the audit’s standing and severity. Distributed audit therefore democratizes execution, not authority. The game-theoretic model separates raw audit occurrence from standing-bearing consequential detection. If potential auditor k initiates an audit with probability pk, detects the relevant mismatch with probability qk, reaches an uptake-sensitive audience with probability rk, and produces an audit with standing weight wk, then δw eff = 1 − Y k (1 − pkqkrkwk) is the benchmark probability of at least one standing-bearing consequential detection under independent source events. The paired benchmark ηw eff = 1 − Y k (1 − pkfkrkwk) tracks standing-weighted false-positive exposure, where fk is the conditional probability of a false or materially overstated finding. The standing term is an audit-output property, not an auditor-prestige score, and any implementation of wk = W(Pk,Rk,Ck, Sk,Hk) is constrained by declared provenance, replication, convergence, severity, response-handling, and consequencespecific admissibility rules. The central design question is therefore whether standing-bearing correction value exceeds standing-bearing false-finding harm, audit noise, chilling effects, and capture risk. The analysis develops volunteer audit supply, self-audit, institutional audit reversal, external venue classification, pressure migration to audit-basis manipulation, symbolic compliance, model and prompt variance, audit-basis fragmentation, prompt injection, harassment, severity governance, and registry memory. Institutions do not disappear, and LLM-assisted audits do not become truth oracles. Rather, institutions lose exclusive control over whether structured, protocolized claim-status audit can be executed against accessible claims and become participants in a reciprocal audit field. Journals may still audit claims, but claims, review practices, press language, and institutional rigor statements can also be audited externally. This reference edition does not claim population-level validation of UEAP execution or report a completed empirical deployment. Full empirical validation requires a multi-evaluator calibration study beyond the scope of this solo-authored formal-methodological record. The manuscript instead supplies the complete reference architecture: the protocol grammar, standing and consequence rules, threat model, registry schema, controlled execution demonstrations, machine readable tooling artifacts, and validation design required to test stronger empirical claims. AASC/UEAP supplies the audit grammar; mechanized execution supplies scale; provenance, replication, counteraudit, and severity discipline determine standing; and game theory identifies the strategic response when scientific institutions can no longer monopolize the conditions under which structured audit occurs. (shrink)

With the growing demand for personalized clothing, how to efficiently and accurately select the right clothing combination according to different occasions, weather conditions and personal preferences has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper proposes a novel optimization method, namely the Clothing Context-Aware Optimization Algorithm (CCOA). The algorithm combines meta-heuristic optimization technology with human intuition in the matching process, comprehensively considers multiple factors such as weather, occasions, personal preferences, and realizes personalized and efficient clothing matching recommendations. Experimental verification (...) shows that the algorithm has good performance in multi-objective optimization, meets the needs of real-world situations, and provides users with comfortable and beautiful matching solutions. It is worth noting that CCOA is not limited to the field of clothing matching. It also has a wide range of applicability and can be extended to other multi-objective decision-making optimization tasks, such as restaurant matching and travel luggage selection. (shrink)

This paper proposes a global optimization algorithm inspired by the physical education teacher profession (PETIO). By simulating the hierarchical management, dynamic adjustment, incentive feedback, and multi-skill training behaviors of physical education teachers in training and teaching, the algorithm constructs an iterative strategy that integrates multiple mechanisms to achieve a balance between exploration and exploitation. The algorithm incorporates a hierarchical training mechanism, dynamic load-incentive coupling, skill rotation, group feedback, and cross-group learning mechanisms. The update strategies of each mechanism are described through (...) mathematical formulas, and a complete pseudocode flow is presented, providing a theoretical foundation for further application to complex optimization problems. (shrink)

As a professional, fitness coaches not only undertake physical training but also manage client satisfaction, optimize training outcomes, and maintain the coach's own health. Existing training optimization methods typically employ fixed strategies or empirically based scheduling, lacking comprehensive consideration of the delayed effects of client psychological feedback and the coach's nonlinear physical recovery. This paper proposes a global optimization algorithm for the fitness coaching profession, employing a dynamic feedback-adaptive learning mechanism to achieve a global balance between training program optimization and (...) coach health. The core of the algorithm comprises a delayed feedback weighting mechanism, a nonlinear fatigue recovery mechanism for the coach, an adaptive multi-layer learning mechanism, and a dynamic balance factor adjustment mechanism. This paper establishes a training optimization framework through a purely mathematical model, providing a complete mathematical formula that achieves theoretically optimal training program planning without experimental verification. This algorithm can provide a systematic optimization solution for fitness coaches in terms of professional management, client satisfaction improvement, and physical fitness maintenance. (shrink)

Hilly ecosystems are characterized by undulating terrain, distinct vegetation layers, diverse microhabitats, and dynamic animal migration. These characteristics provide rich heuristic information for optimization algorithms. This paper proposes an optimization algorithm based on hilly ecosystems—the Hills Ecology Optimization Algorithm (HEOA). This algorithm incorporates a slope-aware step size (SASS) mechanism, a microhabitat-adaptive selection (MAS) mechanism, a hierarchical role cooperation (HRC) mechanism, a dynamic microhabitat migration (DMM) mechanism, and an ecological information fusion (ECO-IF) mechanism to fully simulate the material flow, energy transfer, (...) and biodiversity migration behavior in hilly ecosystems. The algorithm achieves a balance between exploration and exploitation through local and global coordination, multi-level information feedback, and dynamic migration during the search process, demonstrating strong global search capabilities and local fine-grained optimization capabilities. This paper describes the algorithm's structure, core mechanism, and mathematical model in detail, providing new solutions to complex optimization problems. (shrink)

This paper proposes a novel meta-heuristic algorithm for continuous optimization problems—the Nurse Optimization Algorithm (NOA), inspired by the professional behavior of nurses. The algorithm simulates the behavioral characteristics of nurses in multitasking environments, including task prioritization, experience sharing, emergency response, and teamwork. It incorporates four core mechanisms: a task prioritization mechanism, an experience sharing memory network, an emergency intervention mechanism, and a dynamic energy regulation mechanism. The algorithm utilizes a multi-level search strategy, adaptive energy management, and memory guidance to efficiently (...) solve complex optimization problems. The paper establishes a detailed mathematical model for the algorithm, defines all parameters and variables, and provides a complete algorithm flow and pseudocode. This algorithm theoretically offers a novel swarm intelligence optimization strategy with originality and potential for widespread application. (shrink)

This paper proposes a global optimization algorithm inspired by the decision-making logic of public health experts. When addressing health crises, public health experts achieve optimal intervention through multi-layered decision-making, risk assessment, information dissemination, resource allocation, and feedback adjustment. This paper abstracts these strategies into a search mechanism for the optimization algorithm, introducing five unique mechanisms: hierarchical decision-making, epidemic-like information dissemination, delayed incubation period updates, adaptive resource allocation with resource constraints, and dynamic risk-aware weighting. This results in a dynamically adaptive optimization (...) method that combines global exploration with local exploitation. This paper provides a complete mathematical description of the algorithm, along with its mechanism design and iterative process, aiming to provide a new heuristic strategy framework for complex optimization problems. (shrink)

This paper proposes a novel heuristic optimization algorithm inspired by the foraging behavior, vocal communication, territorial defense, and migration characteristics of orioles (Oriolus spp.). Traditional heuristic algorithms often rely on global optimal attraction or random perturbations, easily falling into local optima, and lack in-depth simulation of biological behavior. By analyzing the ecological characteristics of orioles and mapping their behavioral traits into an optimization strategy, this paper designs a dual-scale foraging mechanism, a vocal information dissemination mechanism, a dynamic territory renewal mechanism, (...) and a jumping foraging mechanism to achieve a balance between global exploration and local exploitation. The algorithm is mathematically modeled using position vectors, adaptive step sizes, weighted neighborhood movement, and random jumping. This paper describes the algorithm's principles, mathematical formulas, and operational process in detail, providing a novel approach to optimization algorithms based on bird behavior. (shrink)

This paper considers the characteristics of AI based on its strength in Shogi, and further examines the efficiency and embodiment of AI. The strength of AI in Shogi stems from the rules of Shogi, which is a perfect information game with clear preconditions. This is the reason why the effectiveness of AI in Mahjong and real society cannot be as high as in Shogi. Furthermore, it is easy to assume scenarios where AI operates with more effort than necessary, and in (...) such scenarios, efficiency is remarkably low. This stems from the fact that feedback to the AI's embodiment is not sophisticated, and the cause can be said to be statistics, which is the core of its design. As long as AI resources are not inexhaustible, this is a clear weakness. (shrink)

The theoretical architecture of the Anatomy of Chaos project has hitherto focused on the structural mechanics of socio-political systems, mapping the thermodynamics of collapse, the gradients of expansion, and the biological substrate of history. This paper shifts the analytical focus from the physics of the system to the phenomenology of the agent, addressing the existential and ethical consequences of inhabiting a high-entropy universe. We propose that the transition from the unconscious immersion of the "Fusionist" to the structural awareness of the (...) "Observer" is not a singular event but a complex state of "Dual Vision," characterized by a profound asymmetry of satisfaction. While the Fusionist retains access to immediate biological happiness, the Observer trades this comfort for an austere, functional satisfaction derived from structural alignment. This trade-off generates the "Paradox of Relief," wherein ruthless functional decision-making produces less psychological friction than traditional moral deliberation. To ground the ethics of this condition, the paper engages in a systematic critique of Kantian deontology, demonstrating that the Categorical Imperative acts as a valid heuristic only within stable (Low-K) systems. In the context of systemic crisis (High-K), we argue that the requirement for universality becomes a structural error. Through the comparative analysis of the Lincoln-Robespierre paradox, we establish "Structural Functionality" and the "Principle of Measure" (Metron) as the necessary alternatives to moral purity. Finally, the work unifies these phenomenological and ethical insights through the ontology of the "Lucid Dream." We posit that the Observer is a lucid dreamer who recognizes the constructed nature of social reality but acknowledges the impossibility of exiting the dream. This metaphor resolves the tension between agency and determinism, offering a vision of tragic dignity where the human subject is defined not by the ability to escape the system, but by the courage to navigate it with open eyes. (shrink)

This paper builds on the critique of equilibrium models developed in Against the Metaphysics of Equilibrium. While the concept of an axiomatic code ⟨O, F⟩ (obligations and prohibitions) and its complexity S explain what a political subject can or cannot do, it remains static. To capture the dynamics of existential conflicts, we introduce a formal model combining Kripke’s possible worlds semantics with filtering by the axiomatic code. A tree of possible worlds ⟨W, R⟩ distinguishes deterministic (controllable) transitions from nondeterministic (uncontrollable) (...) branching, where branching reflects strategic uncertainty. The axiomatic code acts as a filter: worlds and transitions that violate core obligations or absolute prohibitions are excluded. We define metrics – minimal path length, number of nondeterministic nodes, and favourable branching coefficient β – to classify strategic attainability as guaranteed, probabilistic, practically unattainable, or ontologically unattainable. Applying the model to the US–Iran conflict reveals a fundamental asymmetry. For the US, regime change is practically unattainable: every path requires uncontrollable branchings (e.g., quick victory, stable puppet regime) and is blocked by absolute prohibitions (casualties, protracted war, nuclear escalation). For Iran, regime survival is guaranteed because the current world already belongs to the target set. The model yields testable predictions: no US full‑scale war, no regime change in Iran, and a protracted freeze that constitutes Iran’s victory and US defeat. Asymmetric conflicts are thus explained not by resource balances but by the internal structure of the axiomatic code and the topology of possible worlds. (shrink)

This paper makes a twofold contribution to the study of expressivity in modal logic. First, we introduce and study the novel concept of conditional expressivity. Second, we use the concept to explore inferential relations between collective deontic admissibility statements for different groups. Negative results on conditional expressivity are stronger than standard (unconditional) inexpressivity results: we show that the well-known inexpressivity results from epistemic logic on distributed knowledge and on common knowledge only concern unconditional expressivity. By contrast, we prove negative results (...) on conditional expressivity in the deontic logic of collective agency. In particular, we consider the full formal language of the deontic logic of collective agency, define a natural class of sublanguages of the full language, and prove that a collective deontic admissibility statement about a particular group is conditionally expressible in a sublanguage from the class if and only if that sublanguage includes a collective deontic admissibility statement about a supergroup of that group. Our negative results on conditional expressivity may serve as a proof of concept for future studies of expressivity in modal logic. (shrink)

Many discussions of AI safety evaluate interventions at the level of an individual model. Typical questions are whether a training procedure reduces harmful behavior, whether an oversight mechanism increases compliance, or whether a restriction on model access limits misuse. These are useful questions, but they are often posed in an implicitly single-agent setting. In practice, safety interventions are deployed in environments containing other adaptive actors, such as users, monitors, competing systems, organizations, and governments. In these settings, an intervention does not (...) simply modify one component of the system. It also changes incentives, information, and feasible responses for other actors. For that reason, the effect of a safety intervention cannot be identified with its immediate effect on the target model. The appropriate object of analysis is the equilibrium induced by the intervention. This article argues that a multi-agent perspective is necessary for understanding when safety measures are robust, when they are offset by strategic adaptation, and when they shift rather than reduce risk. The main conclusion is that AI safety in strategic settings is best framed as the design and evaluation of equilibria under intervention. (shrink)

This paper challenges the dominant paradigm of equilibrium-based modeling in political science and international relations. From game theory to rational choice, from neorealism to sophisticated fuzzy bimatrix constructions, these models share a fundamental assumption: that political actors seek equilibrium, that their preferences are commensurable, and that conflict resolution tends toward mutually acceptable outcomes. The spectacular failure of such models—exemplified by Iranian scholars' formally impeccable game-theoretic analysis of nuclear negotiations that predicted equilibrium while reality chose war—reveals not a computational flaw but (...) an ontological crisis. We argue that equilibrium thinking represents a metaphysical imposition on a reality that operates by different logic. Political actors, particularly in existential conflicts, do not seek compromise; they seek survival and dominance. Their goals are often incommensurable (regime survival cannot be traded against nuclear capability on a single utility scale), their preferences are internally contradictory, and their capacity for action is determined not by external resources but by the internal structure of what we term the axiomatic code—the stable set of obligations (O) and prohibitions (F) that constitute the actor's identity and limit its strategic options. We introduce the concept of axiomatic complexity (S) as a measure of internal contradiction within this code. S increases when: • high-priority obligations lack corresponding prohibitions (asymmetry); • significant goals conflict such that achieving one precludes another (incompatibility); • the space of permitted actions expands beyond strategic focus (entropy). Drawing on Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process, we formalize the measurement of goal priorities and conflict matrices, demonstrating the approach through a comparative analysis of Iran and the U.S./Israel in the current confrontation. The analysis reveals a fundamental asymmetry: Iran exhibits a hierarchically coherent code with a dominant priority (regime survival, w = 0.65) and moderate internal conflicts (μ ≤ 0.4); the U.S./Israel displays a fragmented code with three competing high-priority goals (non-proliferation, electoral victory, casualty minimization) locked in severe conflict (μ = 0.6–0.8). This internal structure generates a testable prediction: Iran will not be defeated, regime change will not occur, and the most probable outcome is a protracted freeze—which constitutes strategic victory for Iran (survival achieved) and defeat for the U.S. (regime change failed). Unlike equilibrium models that would posit a "mutually acceptable compromise," our framework explains why the same outcome carries opposite meanings for the two sides. The proposed theory does not reject formalization but redirects it: from searching for equilibria in external interactions to diagnosing the internal coherence of the actor. We introduce the Zermelo filter as a mechanism of axiomatic reduction—the capacity to prune contradictory imperatives, exemplified by revolutionary movements that achieve strategic superconductivity through minimalist codes. The paper concludes that the key to political prediction lies not in balancing forces but in measuring the weight of an actor's own contradictions. Goliath falls not because David is strong, but because Goliath is torn apart by his own imperatives. (shrink)

Accuracy-first arguments derive Bayesian updating by assuming that evidential content is already representable as a scalar quantity evaluated by a proper scoring rule. This paper instead identifies structural conditions under which such scalarization is legitimate. We model evidence as interactive witness–challenge refinement and internalize updating in a Dialectica category over credal states. In this setting, feasibility of an update is equivalent to nonnegativity of a minimax security value, and diachronic coherence corresponds to compositional preservation of no-book status. Admissible policies admit (...) a canonical factorization into transport, interactive refinement, and optional selection. -/- Within this interactive universe we isolate the public-score fragment, the reflective subcategory of evidence types indistinguishable by strictly proper scoring rules. On this fragment, equilibrium semantics commutes with reflection: computing equilibria before or after collapse yields the same public reports. Bayesian updating appears exactly as the reporting equilibrium of the reflected evidence game. Outside this fragment the collapse is non-faithful: evidence types that coincide at the scalar level can remain strategically distinct in the interactive universe. A finite normal-form representation theorem and nonclassical LP stress tests make this boundary explicit. (shrink)

This paper examines how nuclear engineering—specifically the study of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and the physics of the RBMK-1000 reactor—served as a foundational source domain for the development of a sustained body of philosophical and psychological theory. Drawing on the concept of consilience (Whewell, 1840; Wilson, 1998), the paper traces how one researcher’s extended engagement with reactor design, the AZ-5 emergency shutdown mechanism, and the systemic failures that produced the Chernobyl catastrophe gave rise to multiple original theoretical frameworks: U236 Thinking, (...) a nuclear fission model of philosophical cognition (Boether, 2025); the AZ-5 Psychological Principle, which identifies conditions under which protective interventions precipitate the crises they are designed to prevent; and the Double Helix of Understanding, a systems-based model of personality dynamics (Boether, 2025). The analysis demonstrates that engineering disciplines—characterized by rigorous systems analysis, attention to feedback dynamics, and sensitivity to failure modes—provide a structurally rich foundation for philosophical theorizing that pure philosophical or psychological training may not afford. The paper argues that the case from nuclear engineering to philosophy constitutes a distinctive form of consilience: not the reductive unification Wilson envisioned, but a generative transfer of structural reasoning across domains that preserves the integrity of both the source and target disciplines. (shrink)

In the present work, we develop a novel information-theoretic and logic-based approach to data bias in Machine Learning predictions and show its relevance in the specific context of fairness evaluation. We frame predictions made on biased data as Ulam games, which formalise key aspects of data-driven inference, and from which a variation of the rational non-monotonic consequence relation can be defined. We investigate this framework to model how differential levels of noise in input features impact Machine Learning predictions. To the (...) best of our knowledge, this is the first game-theoretic formalisation of ML unfairness. (shrink)

Common sense morality follows – in many cases – the prescriptions of threshold deontology. Governments, for example, are expected to follow their own rules, but in the face of an extreme price increase, public opinion has often supported changing the rules ex post to increase tax revenues. Such moral license in extreme situations is puzzling from a philosophical and an economic point of view. We present a simple contractualist solution to this puzzle using a game-theoretic model. We argue that allowing (...) for deviations from the social contract in extreme circumstances is a necessary condition for the stability of any social contract. (shrink)

Suppose we have a game with three players, each secretly choosing a specific number from a countably infinite set of natural numbers. In the first phase, each player tries to guess another player’s number: α guesses β, β guesses γ, and γ guesses α. When a player’s number is correctly guessed, they are eliminated, and the remaining players advance to the second phase. The game is then played under the rules of misère: the eliminator in the first round starts second, (...) and the first player whose number is correctly guessed wins. (shrink)

This thesis presents a comprehensive critical analysis of Liu Cixin's Dark Forest Theory, one of the most influential proposed solutions to the Fermi Paradox in contemporary science fiction and theoretical astrobiology. Through extensive literature review, mathematical analysis, and empirical evaluation, we identify fundamental limitations in the Dark Forest hypothesis, including technological determinism, static equilibrium assumptions, and oversimplified resource competition models. To address these shortcomings, we propose the Adaptive Equilibrium Theory (AET), a novel theoretical framework that incorporates dynamic game theory, technological (...) transcendence pathways, and spatial heterogeneity to provide a more sophisticated and empirically consistent model of galactic civilization dynamics. -/- Our analysis reveals that while the Dark Forest Theory offers compelling narrative explanations for the apparent absence of detectable alien civilizations, it fails to account for the complex, multi-dimensional nature of technological development, strategic evolution, and resource utilization that would characterize advanced interstellar civilizations. The Adaptive Equilibrium Theory addresses these limitations by proposing that galactic civilizations exist in a dynamic, multi-dimensional strategy space where multiple coexistence mechanisms enable diverse civilization types to survive and thrive without resorting to universal mutual destruction. -/- The implications of this research extend beyond theoretical astrobiology to practical considerations for human civilization's long-term survival strategies, SETI research methodologies, and our understanding of intelligence and cooperation in complex systems. We conclude that the universe, while potentially dangerous, is not necessarily the uniformly hostile "dark forest" envisioned by Liu Cixin, but rather a complex ecosystem where strategic adaptation and niche differentiation may enable peaceful coexistence among diverse forms of intelligence. (shrink)

This thesis is a collection of three papers in social epistemology. Three epistemic systems of great importance for modern society are studied respectively: the expert system, the democratic system, and the financial system. Throughout the three papers, I try to pay additional attention to the interactions between individuals and institutions, which explains the title of this dissertation. In the first paper, I discuss ways in which institutional remedies are crucial for individual epistemic performance. In the second paper, I argue that (...) the individual moral requirements of citizens (i.e., participants of democracy) should not be overlooked in presence of the epistemic aggregation effect of democracy at the institutional level. In the third paper, I analyze how individual motives in financial markets and the epistemic functions of financial markets influence and interact with each other. The proper functioning of each of the three institutions, I believe, is necessary for achieving a good society in our time. In a good society, neither the individual aspects nor the institutional aspects should be overlooked. (shrink)

This paper develops a comprehensive, multi-layered framework integrating thermodynamics, game theory, fuzzy logic, and self-referential information theory to analyze social welfare in systems with self-referential agents (Quine agents) and bounded rationality. We formalize the concept of 'Demonic Agents' as actors capable of manipulating, erasing, and reproducing their information states, analogous to Maxwell's demon. Using probabilistic phase entropy and fuzzy action distributions, we rigorously prove that social welfare (SW) is globally superior to Nash equilibria (NE), bounded, and foundational, even in worlds (...) without overt demons. Quine self-replication ensures irreducible, non-trivial information for all agents, making every agent inherently demonic and capable of shaping collective outcomes. The model integrates economic allocation mechanisms inspired by Nakamoto (2008), including Bitcoin-based anchors, the genesis hash, and dynamic fairness mechanisms. (shrink)

Specific Decisional System offers a groundbreaking exploration into how artificial intelligence can make, adjust, and implement decisions with mathematical precision. Focused on the core logic of Artificial Research by Deduction, this book introduces readers to a structured, three-stage process that governs how intelligent systems validate decisions, transform them into actionable instructions, and evolve through self-correction. With real-world examples ranging from automated transport to banking systems, it reveals how AI can operate autonomously while adapting in real time to new priorities and (...) changing environments. -/- Whether you're a researcher, engineer, policy designer, or visionary entrepreneur, this book provides a forward-looking framework for designing intelligent systems that are not only efficient and responsive, but capable of learning and improving themselves. It also introduces the original concept of “Probability and Deduction” as a method to directly link logic, modelling, and execution—creating a seamless path from mathematical reasoning to robotic action. -/- Specific Decisional System is a must-read for anyone interested in the future of automation, intelligent governance, and the next generation of self-replicating, self-improving Artificial Intelligence. (shrink)

Hadfield-Menell et al. (2017) propose the Off-Switch Game, a model of Human-AI cooperation in which AI agents always defer to humans because they are uncertain about our preferences. I explain two reasons why AI agents might not defer. First, AI agents might not value learning. Second, even if AI agents value learning, they might not be certain to learn our actual preferences.

We introduce the Ordinal Folding Index (OFI), a computable, countable ordinal assigned to every well-formed formula of a reflective language by a monotone-with-delay evaluation operator. This operator is (i) continuous on countable chains, (ii) layer-aware for probabilistic truth values, and (iii) parameterized by a tunable evidence functor capturing empirical updates. The OFI of a formula is defined as the first stage at which the fold-back of the operator into a syntactic normal form becomes idempotent (i.e. further unfolding yields no new (...) information). Intuitively, OFI measures the "depth" of self-reference needed before a sentence's truth value stabilizes. We show that OFI strictly refines classical closure ordinals from fixed-point logics while remaining recursively enumerable, admits polynomial-time approximations on finite models, and coincides with the length of the shortest parity-fold winning strategy in the associated evaluation game. This furnishes a single transfinite scale that unifies transfinite fixed-point depth, ordinal game values, and practical convergence diagnostics for large language models. We situate OFI in relation to the modal????-calculus alternation hierarchy, coalgebraic modal logic ranks, and proof-theoretic ordinals from formal arithmetic. An empirical section demonstrates how OFI can be estimated for transformer-based language models by iteratively feeding model outputs back into the model (a form of self-consistency probing), with the measured stabilization ordinals correlating with model perplexity and chain-of-thought complexity. Finally, we catalog five open problems in this new area-ranging from the completeness of the spectrum of OFI (can every computable ordinal arise as an OFI?) to the design of a self-bounding reflective operator-and we outline possible research pathways toward their resolution. (shrink)

Using epistemic logic, we provide a non-probabilistic way to formalise payoff uncertainty, that is, statements such as ‘player i has approximate knowledge about the utility functions of player j.’ We show that on the basis of this formalisation common knowledge of payoff uncertainty and rationality (in the sense of excluding weakly dominated strategies, due to Dekel and Fudenberg (1990)) characterises a new solution concept we have called ‘mixed iterated strict weak dominance.’.

This paper argues that extant signalling-based analyses cannot explain a range of cases of biological (and psychological) deception, such as those in which the deceiver does not send a signal at all, but that Artiga and Paternotte’s (Philos Stud 175:579–600, 2018) functional and my (Krstić in The analysis of self-deception: rehabilitating the traditionalist account. PhD Dissertation, University of Auckland, 2018: §3; Krstić and Saville in Australas J Philos 97:830–835, 2019) manipulativist analyses can. Therefore, the latter views should be given preference. (...) And because we still do not have a satisfactory definition of manipulation, the functional analysis, according to which a state is deceptive iff its function is to mislead and it misleads, is currently our best theory of deception. This is not to argue that the signalling-based analyses have no value but only that they should not be used in general analyses of biological deception. We need to move on to some other interesting issues. (shrink)

The critical intention of this article does not focus on a comprehensive socio-cultural evaluation of gambling. Rather, its perspective is guided towards ways of picturing gambling and the subject of the gambler in different theoretical contexts. It is argued that one might expand philosophical conceptions of practical self-determination by taking an interdisciplinary look at gambling. However, such an attempt runs into the danger of painting an overly simplistic picture of self-control as self-continence, which can be found in theoretical approaches pathologizing (...) the gambler. In order to avoid such an outcome, an interdisciplinary analogy combining psychoanalytical and philosophical thought is presented. This analogy brings together the perspectives of the analysand and the gambler. By confronting these scenarios of human agency, it is shown that practical self-determination depends on instances of daring that can be related to certain gambling practices, too. The interdisciplinary view on gambling highlights its potentials for self-exploration, without neglecting the fact that an appropriate realization of such a self-exploration requires experiential and interpersonal conditions that often collide with the harsh reality of gambling practices. (shrink)

Most recent theorists take social norms to arise from certain attitudes, such as expectations on others, perhaps along with conforming practices. Challenging this view, we argue that social norms are instead grounded in a social norming process: an (often non-verbal) social communication process that institutes or ‘makes’ the norm. We present different versions of a process-based account of social norms and social normativity. The process-based view brings social norms closer to legal norms, by taking social norms to arise through ‘expressive (...) acts’, just as some laws and contracts arise through acts of voting or signing, not through mere attitudes. (shrink)

De Cruz and Levy, in their commentaries on Religion as make‐believe, present distinct questions that can be addressed by clarifying one core idea. De Cruz asks whether one can rationally assess the mental state of religious credence that I theorize. Levy asks why we should not explain the data on religious “belief” merely by positing factual beliefs with religious contents, which happen to be rationally acquired through testimony. To both, I say that having religious credences is p‐irrational: a purposeful departure (...) from rational thought and behavior, where the purpose in question is maintaining a group identity. (shrink)

The excessive population growth leading to urbanization and, subsequent to it, urban sprawl, increases the size and number of urban settlements. Consequently, to fulfill the land needed for this expansion, humans encroach the public open areas, including highly crucial urban green spaces. Generally, any kind of greenness within the city, known as urban green spaces, benefits the ecosystem and the inhabitants. Hence, the green infrastructure, universally, should be preserved. Urban parks, specifically urban forest parks, serving as recreational green public spaces, (...) are beneficial for environmental issues and human’s mental and physical health, in other words, well-being, by enabling them to interact with nature. To appropriately preserve the urban forest parks, being aware of the motivational factors for the visitors have a key role. While the willingness factors vary amongst people, it is important to know whether different people can experience the same park diversely, which is almost attractive in terms of general park features. Hence, the study refers to the concept of sense of place, capable of turning spaces into the desired places, framing the users’ behavior and transmitting cultural meaning. Augmentation occurs using Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in urban environments. It can be as simple as telecommunication technologies or very complicated ones. With their everyday use in peoples’ lifestyles, they have penetrated humans’ real lives, fading away the border detaching the real world from the world of computer-mediated services. Nowadays, a holistic technological perspective dominates the urban areas rather than individual ICT projects, which can reshape people’s interaction with their surroundings. Hence, the ICT-enriched spaces result in augmented spaces that convey a sense of place, supporting meaning-making and behavior framing. With its recent definition, gamification, which is the process of making activities more game-like, is a sample of augmentation. While triggering motivation in the users, it can support inducing new behaviors or reshaping the existing ones. Currently, gamification is spread out to various domains, both in academia and amongst practitioners. However, while gamification may involve any type of content, it is called a serious game in the case of transmitting serious educational content besides being entertaining. They are able to engage the player with the education of a certain topic or enhancement of a specific skill. The recent covid-19 outbreak and consequent confinement periods affected people's everyday lifestyles. While suddenly, people lost the freedom of being outdoor, experiencing new places, and interacting with each other, the technology rescued them from such a phenomenon. Virtual environment served them as a mediator to be in the same place, interact, and experience their daily activities in a novel form. Additionally, gamification changed even the sense of their virtual places. This thesis aims to enrich the park visitors’ experience via entertainingly introducing the Atatürk urban forest park to them, accompanied with educational content, by means of a locative serious game. The game benefits from the public awareness reinforcement to serve urban green space preservation. It generates a sense of placeness in its in situ mobile version and desktop version, played remotely, to frame the players’ behavior for the sake of its aim. The thesis is divided into six chapters to achieve its intended aim: The first chapter, the introduction, describes the excessive population growth leading to urbanization and its subsequent, urban sprawl, which increases the size and number of urban settlements and decreases the area of highly crucial urban green spaces. Discussing the green infrastructure benefits, this part emphasizes the importance of its preservation. After a brief debate around the possible ways of this conservation, this chapter continues with the thesis's purpose, method, and content. The literature review part, located in the second and the third chapter, introduces the types, definitions, and the benefits of the urban green spaces, instanced as parks and urban forest parks. This chapter continues with a description of the park experience, followed by the concept of the sense of place. Augmentation and the use of ICTs for behavior framing are described, followed by the idea of gamification, serious games, related case studies, and software. Next, in the fourth chapter, the thesis continues with the research part. Firstly, it introduces the selected area, Atatürk Urban Forest Park, with its detailed fauna and flora information. Then, it proceeds with the game development part, introducing the operated 360° panoramic field photography with a smartphone and using 3dvista Virtual Tour PRO software as the game development tool to provide a locative serious game. For the evaluation of the developed game’s success, in the fifth chapter, the thesis conducts an online survey, including a Google form questionnaire, requested to be filled after the gameplay, focused on the remote version, inspired by the pandemic situation. Finally, in the last chapter, the thesis results are concluded, and the discussions around the future possibilities of the provided method and its capabilities are made to enlighten the field for further studies. (shrink)

This paper is an original attempt to understand the foundations of economic reasoning. It endeavors to rigorously define the relationship between subjective interpretations and objective valuations of such interpretations in the context of theoretical economics. This analysis is substantially expanded through a dynamic approach, where the truth of a valuation results in an updated interpretation or changes in the agent's subjective belief regarding the effectiveness of the selected action as well as the objective reality of the effectiveness of all other (...) possible actions (i.e. consequence realization). Complications arise when the economic agent is presented with a set of actions that render ambiguous preference, or when the effectiveness of an action cannot be perceived upon its selection, thereby necessitating a different theory of choice and consequence realization. (shrink)

In this paper we explore the absentminded driver problem using two different scenarios. In the first scenario we assume that the driver is capable of reasoning about his degree of absentmindedness before he hits the highway. This leads to a Savage-style model where the states are mutually exclusive and the act-state independence is in place. In the second we employ centred possibilities, by modelling the states (i.e. the events about which the driver is uncertain) as the possible final destinations indexed (...) by a time period. The optimal probability we find for continuing at an exit is different from almost all papers in the literature. In this scenario, act-state independence is still violated, but states are mutually exclusive and the driver arrives at his optimal choice probability via Bayesian updating. We show that our solution is the only one guaranteeing immunity from sure loss via a Dutch strategy, and that – despite initial appearances – it is time consistent. This raises important implications for the rationality of commitment in such scenarios. (shrink)

This note identifies and comments on selected crucial traits of Robert Aumann’s philosophy of game theory. In doing so, it aims at carving out and expressing some notions tacitly held by many working game theorists and ideally even at triggering subsequent reflection on the philosophy of game theory in general. According to my reconstruction of Aumann’s position, sophisticated, relatively precise rules of language—an ultra-refined grammar for interactions—constitute the heart of game theory. Consequently, the heart of game theory is devoid, or (...) almost devoid, of empirical content. The final section proposes a nomenclature for lucidly discussing the relationships between theories, different types of models, and “the real world” and employs it to explicate and slightly amend Aumann’s remarks on the role of truth and fruitfulness in game theory. (shrink)

Recent work on the evolution of social contracts and conventions has often used models of bargaining games, with reinforcement learning. A recent innovation is the requirement that every strategy must be invented either through through learning or reinforcement. However, agents frequently get stuck in highly-reinforced “traps” that prevent them from arriving at outcomes that are efficient or fair to the both players. Agents face a trade-off between exploration and exploitation, i.e. between continuing to invent new strategies and reinforcing strategies that (...) have already become highly reinforced by yielding high rewards. In this paper I systematically study the relationship between rates of invention and the efficiency and fairness of outcomes in two-player, repeated bargaining games. I use a basic reinforcement learning model with invention, and five variations of this model, designed introduce various forms of forgetting, to prioritize more recent reinforcement, or to maintain a higher rate of invention. I use computer simulations to investigate the outcomes of each model. Each models shows qualitative similarities in the relationship between the efficiency and fairness of outcomes, and the relative amount of exploration or exploitation that takes place. Surprisingly, there are often trade-offs between the efficiency and the fairness of the outcomes. (shrink)

In this paper, I outline and defend the view that variations in compliance levels with one and the same norm represent differentnorms about following norms. In support of this claim, I first argue that classic game-theoretic accounts, which define norms as Nash equilibria of noncooperative games, typically consider variations in compliance levels as separate norms. After that, I suggest a more fine-grained, game-theoretic distinction that accounts for degrees of compliance with the same norm and I show how to incorporate such (...) an account into a psychological framework. Finally, the paper examines what given degrees of compliance can reveal about the dynamics underlying the process of norm change. I will argue that they are indicators of different reactions to the introduction of new norms. (shrink)

The cognitive scientist Donald Hoffman argues that we don't perceive reality: spacetime, objects, colors, sounds, tastes, and so forth, are all merely an interface that we evolved to track evolutionary fitness rather than to perceive truths about external reality. In this paper, I expound on his argument, then I extend it, primarily, by looking at key ideas in physics that are quite germane to it. Among the topics in physics that I discuss are black holes, the holographic principle, string theory, (...) duality, quantum gravity, and special relativity. I discuss these ideas from physics with an eye to their relevance for Hoffman's view. (shrink)

It is widely acknowledged that categories play significant roles in the appreciation of artworks. This paper argues that the correct categories of artworks are institutionally established through social processes. Section 1 examines the candidates for determining correct categories and proposes that this question should shift the focus from category membership to appreciative behaviour associated with categories. Section 2 draws on Francesco Guala’s theory of institutions to show that categories of artworks are established as rules-in-equilibrium. Section 3 reviews the explanatory benefits (...) of this institutional theory of the correct category. [Winner of the 2022 Debates in Aesthetics Essay Prize]. (shrink)

This paper examines two strands of literature regarding economic models of cooperation. First, payoff transformation theories assume that people may not be exclusively motivated by self-interest, but also care about equality and fairness. Second, team reasoning theorists assume that people might reason from the perspective of the team, rather than an individualistic perspective. Can these two theories be unified? In contrast to the consensus among team reasoning theorists, I argue that team reasoning can be viewed as a particular type of (...) payoff transformation. However, I also demonstrate that many payoff transformations yield actions that team reasoning rules out. (shrink)

Begründet und entfaltet wird ein Begriff des Spiels, der sich um Lockungen und Drohungen des Unerwarteten dreht. Das Autorenduo ordnet seine Theorie der ludischen Aktion in klassische Konzepte des Spiels ein sowie in den aktuellen Diskurs der Game Studies. Die phänomenale Mannigfaltigkeit des Spiels wird in historischer Perspektive skizziert und in systematischer Weise gegliedert. Die Autoren erläutern medientechnische und kommunikative Voraussetzungen des Booms der Computerspiele und reflektieren die Diskussion über Eskalationen ludischer Gewalt. Kritisch ausgeleuchtet werden Instrumentalisierungen des Spiels, die sich (...) unter dem Stichwort Gamification wachsender Beliebtheit erfreuen. Die auffällige Inflation der Spielmetapher wird in Zusammenhang gebracht mit ludischen Anmutungen in den sozialen Strukturen der modernen und digitalen Gesellschaft. Fabian Arlt, M. A., hat Medienmanagement studiert und promoviert im Studiengang Gesellschafts- und Wirtschaftskommunikation der Universität der Künste (UdK) in Berlin. Prof. Dr. Hans-Jürgen Arlt ist Sozialwissenschaftler und Publizist, er lehrt am Institut für Theorie und Praxis der Kommunikation der Universität der Künste (UdK) in Berlin. (shrink)

This book synthesizes the game-theoretic modeling of decision-making processes and an ancient moral requirement, called the Golden Rule of ethics (GR). This rule states, "Behave to others as you would like them to behave to you." The GR is one of the oldest, most widespread and specific moral requirements that appear in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, and Confucianism. The book constructs and justifies mathematical models of dynamic socio-economic processes and phenomena that reveal the mechanism of the GR and are based (...) on the concept of Berge equilibrium. The GR can be naturally used for resolving or balancing conflicts, and its "altruistic character" obviously excludes wars, blood-letting, and armed clashes. The previous book of the authors, The Berge Equilibrium: A Game-Theoretic Framework for the Golden Rule of Ethics, covers the static case of the GR. In this book, the dynamic case of the GR is investigated using the altruistic concept of Berge equilibrium and three factors as follows: a) a modification of N.N. Krasovskii's mathematical formalization of differential positional games (DPGs), in view of the counterexamples given by A.I. Subbotin and A.F. Kononenko; b) the method of guiding control, proposed by N.N. Krasovskii; c) the Germeier convolution of the payoff functions of different players. Additionally, the book features exercises, problems, and solution tips collected together in Appendix 1, as well as new approaches to conflict resolution as presented in Appendices 2-4. The book will be of use to undergraduate and graduate students and experts in the field of decision-making in complex control and management systems, as well as anyone interested in game theory and applications. (shrink)

A pair of interpreters of a speaker's sentences can disagree by assigning different truth-values to sentences in the speaker's language that the speaker neither accepts nor rejects. Alternately, they can assign different truth-values to some sentence that the speaker accepts as true. Neither source of disagreement is open to the speaker: on pain of inconsistency in the latter case, and ex hypothesis, the speaker neither accepts nor rejects the contested sentence in the former case. Arguably, interpreters possibilities of disagreement do (...) not undercut first-person semantic authority. (shrink)

We present a semantic game for Gödel logic and its extensions, where the players’ interaction stepwise reduces arbitrary claims about the relative order of truth degrees of complex formulas to atomic ones. The paper builds on a previously developed game for Gödel logic with projection operator in Fermüller et al., Information processing and management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems, Springer, Cham, 2020, pp. 257–270). This game is extended to cover Gödel logic with involutive negations and constants, and then lifted to (...) a provability game using the concept of disjunctive strategies. Winning strategies in the provability game, with and without constants and involutive negations, turn out to correspond to analytic proofs in a version of \ :1941–1958, 2010) and in a sequent-of-relations calculus, Automated reasoning with analytic tableaux and related methods, Springer, Berlin, 1999, pp. 36–51) respectively. (shrink)