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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: August 12, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection14.1% ± 2.2%
Current number of MNA's1
Current seat projection11 [7-15]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 12, 2026 20 15 10 5 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% [7-15] 14% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 12, 2026

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 11.9% ▼ 2022 12.9% 14.1% ± 2.2% ▼ Max. 16.3% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ August 12, 2026

Seat projection | August 12, 2026

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 7 ▼ 11 ▼ Max. 15 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ August 12, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 1 BEAN 2. Bellechasse PCQ safe 2 BELL 3. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 3 BEAS 4. La Peltrie PCQ likely 4 LAPE 5. Portneuf PCQ likely 5 PORT 6. Chauveau PCQ likely 6 CHAU 7. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 7 LOTF 8. Montmorency PCQ likely 8 MOMO 9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 9 CHCH 10. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 10 VALR 11. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 11 LEVI 12. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CPQ 12 CHAR 13. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CPQ 13 CÔDS 14. Mégantic Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ 14 MEGA 15. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 15 NICO 16. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 16 LHEB 17. Jean-Lesage QS leaning 17 JLES 18. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ 18 ARTH 19. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 19 CHPN 20. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 20 CXCB 21. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 21 DRUM 22. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 22 LVSM 23. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ 23 MLGL 24. Richmond Leaning LIB 24 RCHM 25. Chomedey Safe LIB 25 CHOM 26. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 26 CHIC 27. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 27 DAMC 28. Nelligan Safe LIB 28 NELL 29. Maskinongé Likely PQ 29 MASK 30. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 30 BALD 31. Daniel-Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 31 DAJO 32. Rousseau Likely PQ 32 ROUS 33. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 33 JTAL 34. Fabre Safe LIB 34 FABR 35. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 35 StLR 36. Trois-Rivières Leaning CAQ 36 TRIV 37. Acadie Safe LIB 37 ACAD 38. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 38 MARG 39. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 39 VAUD 40. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 40 TASH 41. LaFontaine Safe LIB 41 LAFO 42. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 42 LASJ 43. Duplessis Safe PQ 43 DUPL 44. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 44 JACA 45. Papineau Toss up LIB/CAQ 45 PAPI 46. Soulanges Safe LIB 46 SOUL 47. Berthier Safe PQ 47 BRTH 48. Sanguinet Likely PQ 48 SANG 49. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 49 IBER 50. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 50 BELF 51. Huntingdon Likely LIB 51 HUNT 52. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 52 VIMO 53. Les Plaines Likely PQ 53 LPLA 54. Argenteuil Safe PQ 54 ARGE 55. Marquette Safe LIB 55 MARQ 56. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 56 RDLT 57. Mirabel Leaning PQ 57 MIRA 58. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 58 JMVI 59. Roberval Safe PQ 59 ROBV 60. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 60 CHAP 61. Jonquière Safe PQ 61 JONQ 62. Dubuc Safe PQ 62 DUBU 63. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ 63 ABIE 64. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 64 GRBY 65. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 65 NODG 66. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 66 WSTL 67. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 67 MROU 68. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 68 BROM 69. Châteauguay Safe LIB 69 CHAT 70. Saint-François Toss up LIB/PQ 70 STFR 71. Gatineau Likely LIB 71 GATI 72. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 72 StRO 73. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 73 ABIO 74. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 74 BEAU 75. Blainville Leaning PQ 75 BLAI 76. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 76 BOUS 77. Prévost Safe PQ 77 PREV 78. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 78 MILI 79. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 79 LVDR 80. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 80 ANLR 81. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 81 DMON 82. Vachon Likely PQ 82 VACH 83. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 83 RENE 84. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 84 StJR 85. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 85 StHY 86. La Pinière Safe LIB 86 LAPI 87. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 87 LAPR 88. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 88 PATR 89. Bertrand Safe PQ 89 BERT 90. Groulx Leaning PQ 90 GROU 91. Richelieu Safe PQ 91 RCHL 92. L’Assomption Likely PQ 92 LASS 93. Labelle Safe PQ 93 LABL 94. Masson Likely PQ 94 MASS 95. Pontiac Safe LIB 95 PONT 96. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 96 ROUY 97. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 97 CHBY 98. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 98 UNGA 99. Viau Safe LIB 99 VIAU 100. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 100 StJN 101. Joliette Safe PQ 101 JOLI 102. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 102 CAML 103. Borduas Leaning CAQ 103 BORD 104. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 104 MAMA 105. Hull Safe LIB 105 HULL 106. Verchères Likely PQ 106 VERC 107. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 107 MVIC 108. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 108 LAUD 109. Repentigny Likely PQ 109 REPE 110. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Leaning LIB 110 SHSA 111. Verdun Safe LIB 111 VERD 112. Taillon Likely PQ 112 TAIL 113. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 113 LAPO 114. Gaspé Safe PQ 114 GASP 115. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 115 SHER 116. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 116 HOMA 117. Bonaventure Safe PQ 117 BONA 118. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 118 MAUR 119. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 119 ROSE 120. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 120 SMSJ 121. Rimouski Safe PQ 121 RIMO 122. Orford Safe LIB 122 ORFO 123. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 123 MTRV 124. Mercier QS safe 124 MERC 125. Gouin QS safe 125 GOUI 126. Terrebonne Likely PQ 126 TERR 127. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 127 IDLM 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 12, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ safe
2.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
3.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ safe
4.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
5.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
6.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
7.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ likely
8.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ likely
9.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ leaning
10.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
11.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
12.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
13.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
14.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
15.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
16.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
17.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS QS leaning
18.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Likely PQ
19.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
20.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Safe PQ
21.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Likely PQ
22.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Leaning PQ
23.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Toss up PQ/CAQ
24.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Leaning LIB