The 450
33 provincial districts
Latest update: August 12, 2026
Seat and vote projections — The 450
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The 450
33 provincial districts
Latest update: August 12, 2026
Methodology note.
Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Methodology note.
Seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. Brackets indicate the current range of outcomes. Values near the mean are more likely than extremes.
Quebec Projection | The 450
Quebec Seat Projection | The 450
List of districts | The 450
Latest update: August 12, 2026
| Electoral districts | Current party |
Projection |
|---|---|---|
Claude Reid
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
Mario Laframboise
|
Leaning PQ | |
Simon Jolin-Barrette
|
Leaning CAQ | |
Jean-François Roberge
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
Marie-Belle Gendron
|
Safe LIB | |
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
|
Safe LIB | |
Benoit Charette
|
Likely PQ | |
Alice Abou-Khalil
|
Safe LIB | |
Éric Girard
|
Leaning PQ | |
François Legault
|
Likely PQ | |
Linda Caron
|
Safe LIB | |
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
|
Safe LIB | |
Céline Haytayan
|
Safe LIB | |
Lucie Lecours
|
Likely PQ | |
Shirley Dorismond
|
Safe PQ | |
Mathieu Lemay
|
Likely PQ | |
Virginie Dufour
|
Safe LIB | |
Sylvie D’Amours
|
Leaning PQ | |
Nathalie Roy
|
Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
Pascale Déry
|
Likely PQ | |
Jean-Bernard Émond
|
Safe PQ | |
Louis-Charles Thouin
|
Likely PQ | |
Louis Lemieux
|
Safe PQ | |
Christopher Skeete
|
Safe LIB | |
Christine Fréchette
|
Likely PQ | |
Marilyne Picard
|
Safe LIB | |
Lionel Carmant
|
Likely PQ | |
Catherine Gentilcore
|
Likely PQ | |
Ian Lafrenière
|
Likely PQ | |
Marie-Claude Nichols
|
Safe LIB | |
Suzanne Roy
|
Likely PQ | |
Valérie Schmaltz
|
Safe LIB |