General principles of human cognition can help to explain why languages are more likely to have certain characteristics than others: structures that are difficult to process or produce will tend to be lost over time. One aspect of cognition that is implicated in language use is working memory—the component of short‐term memory used for temporary storage and manipulation of information. In this study, we consider the relationship between working memory and regularization of linguistic variation. Regularization is a well‐documented process whereby (...) languages become less variable (on some dimension) over time. This process has been argued to be driven by the behavior of individual language users, but the specific mechanism is not agreed upon. Here, we use an artificial language learning experiment to investigate whether limitations in working memory during either language learning or language production drive regularization behavior. We find that taxing working memory during production results in the loss of all types of variation, but the process by which random variation becomes more predictable is better explained by learning biases. A computational model offers a potential explanation for the production effect using a simple self‐priming mechanism. (shrink)

This article is an axiomatic approach to the problem of ranking game forms in terms of the predictability they offer to individuals. Two criteria are proposed and characterized, the CardMin and the CardMax. Both compare game forms on the basis of the number of distinct outcomes that can result from the choice of a CardMin (resp. CardMax) strategy. The CardMin (resp. CardMax) strategy is defined as a strategy leading to the smallest (resp. highest) number of different outcomes. In both (...) cases, the lower these numbers the better the game form. (shrink)

The aim of the article is to formulate a proposal for the conceptual analysis of the notion of predictability of law, in order to make clear its theoretical and practical implications. To achieve this goal, I will explain the theoretical (what conceptual implications it has) and practical (what decisions it requires us to make) commitments that this conceptualization requires. Specifically, I analyze the commitments to the types of receivers of predictions and issuers of predictions; then I identify what kinds (...) of relationship can be assumed between the predictability of law and its effectiveness; next I indicate what the use of predictions as a means of assessing the degree of satisfaction of legal certainty commits us. Finally I indicate what commitments must be made in adopting a methodology for making predictions. (shrink)

Scriven’s paradox of predictability arises from the combination of two ideas: first, that everything in a deterministic universe is, in principle, predictable; second, that it is possible to create a system that falsifies any prediction that is made of it. Recently, the paradox has been used by Rummens and Cuypers to argue that there is a fundamental difference between embedded and external predictors; and by Ismael to argue against a governing conception of laws. The present paper defends a new (...) diagnosis of the roots of the paradox. First, it is argued that the unpredictability has to be understood in the light of Turing’s famous results about computability, in particular his proof that there is no solution to the ‘halting problem.’ This allows us to see that previous analyses of the paradox were either mistaken or not fully adequate. Second, the sense of paradox that nevertheless remains is traced to the idea that rational behaviour is not dependent on contingent environmental circumstances: that it is always up to us to engage in activities such as rational prediction or rational belief. The paradox of predictability teaches us that this idea, natural though it may be, is mistaken. (shrink)

Suppose someone who claims to have full knowledge of the scientific laws and the initial conditions of the universe predicts some voluntary action of yours, and that the prediction is made known to you before you act. Now make it your policy to act counterpredictively. Can you do this? And if you can make it your policy to decide contrary to whatever prediction is made, is there anything keeping you from carrying it out? Most of us would answer yes to (...) the first question and no to the second. An argument adapted from Michael Scrivens’s Paradox of Predictability is presented in this chapter to show that this kind of freedom is compatible with the existence of deterministic laws and it is suggested that the ability to act contrary to what anyone tells us they think we are going to do provides a concrete, practical sense in which our actions are free. (shrink)

With two eye movements tracking experiments, present study sought to establish whether predictability of target words facilitate characters processing in Chinese reading. Target Words embedded in sentences in both experiments were composed by 2 Chinese characters. Predictability of target words were manipulated in both experiments, beyond that, frequency of targets' first characters were manipulated in Experiment 1, frequency of targets' second characters were manipulated in Experiment 2. Pervasive predictability effects were observed on almost all of eye movement (...) measures in both experiments. It also yield reliable characters frequency effect in Experiment 1 & 2, on some measures. None reliable interaction effects of predictability and first character frequency were observed in Experiment 1, but predictability and second character frequency interactively impacted on some measures of eye movement. Theoretical implications of the data are discussed. (shrink)

There has been a long-standing debate about the relationship of predictability and determinism. Some have maintained that determinism implies predictability while others have maintained that predictability implies determinism. Many have maintained that there are no implication relations between determinism and predictability. This summary is, of course, somewhat oversimplified and quick at least in the sense that there are various notions of determinism and predictability at work in the philosophical literature. In this essay I will focus (...) on what I take to be the Laplacean vision for determinism and predictability. While many forms of predictability are inconsistent with this vision, I argue that a suitably restricted notion of predictability, consistent with the practice of physicists, is implied by the Laplacean notion of determinism. It is argued that limitations on predictability are of an in principle nature in the Appendix. (shrink)

This paper examines commonly offered arguments to show that human behavior is not deterministic because it is not predictable. These arguments turn out to rest on the assumption that deterministic systems must be governed by deterministic laws, and that these give rise to predictability "in principle" of determined events. A positive account of determinism is advanced and it is shown that neither of these assumptions is true. The relation between determinism, laws, and prediction in practice is discussed as a (...) question in scientific epistemology. (shrink)

Studies of word predictability in context show that words in English tend to be shorter if they are predictable from the next word, and to a lesser extent, if they are predictable from the previous word. Some studies distinguish function and content words, but otherwise have not considered grammatical factors, treating all two-word sequences as comparable. Because function words are highly frequent, words occurring with them have low predictability. Highest predictability occurs within bigrams with two content words. (...) Using the Buckeye corpus, we show that content word bigrams from different constructions vary widely in predictability, with adjective–noun and noun–noun sequences (content words within a noun phrase) having the highest scores. It is known that in adjective–noun sequences, the vowel of the adjective is shorter than in other positions. We study noun–noun sequences within the noun phrase and show that the first noun is shorter than in other contexts. It follows that the shorter duration of the first word when it is predictable from the second in many cases is due to the noun phrase construction and not necessarily the regulation of duration corresponding to predictable versus unpredictable information. We conclude that predictability studies must consider the constructions words occur in. (shrink)

Ratio Juris, Volume 35, Issue 1, Page 38-54, March 2022.

Temporal regularities in speech, such as interdependencies in the timing of speech events, are thought to scaffold early acquisition of the building blocks in speech. By providing on-line clues to the location and duration of upcoming syllables, temporal structure may aid segmentation and clustering of continuous speech into separable units. This hypothesis tacitly assumes that learners exploit predictability in the temporal structure of speech. Existing measures of speech timing tend to focus on first-order regularities among adjacent units, and are (...) overly sensitive to idiosyncrasies in the data they describe. Here, we compare several statistical methods on a sample of 18 languages, testing whether syllable occurrence is predictable over time. Rather than looking for differences between languages, we aim to find across languages (using clearly defined acoustic, rather than orthographic, measures), temporal predictability in the speech signal which could be exploited by a language learner. First, we analyse distributional regularities using two novel techniques: a Bayesian ideal learner analysis, and a simple distributional measure. Second, we model higher-order temporal structure—regularities arising in an ordered series of syllable timings—testing the hypothesis that non-adjacent temporal structures may explain the gap between subjectively-perceived temporal regularities, and the absence of universally-accepted lower-order objective measures. Together, our analyses provide limited evidence for predictability at different time scales, though higher-order predictability is difficult to reliably infer. We conclude that temporal predictability in speech may well arise from a combination of individually weak perceptual cues at multiple structural levels, but is challenging to pinpoint. (shrink)

In The Poverty of Historicism, Popper claimed that because the growth of human knowledge cannot be predicted, the future course of human history is not foreseeable. For this reason, historicist theories like Marxism are unscientific or untrue. The aims of this article are: first, to reconstruct Poppers argument, second, to defend it against some critics, and third, to show that it is itself based a weak form of historicism.

Considers whether rule‐consequentialism is undermined by the unpredictability of the consequences of whole codes of rules. Argues that, where we can calculate that some alternative is better than the status quo, we press forward with reform, and that where we cannot calculate that some alternative code is better than the status quo, we should stick with the status quo. Concludes by considering how ideal codes have to compromise with extant conventions, and how rule‐consequentialism can support public goods.

The paper argues that machines cannot duplicate human linguistic creativity because linguistic meaning is context dependent in a way that eludes any machine.

Apparently inconsistent with the CLASH model, animal research relates predictable environments to rigid routine behaviors and aggression. However, our work on evolutionary and neural adaptations to (un)predictable environments may be able to reconcile the CLASH model with the animal research, but also suggests complexities beyond the dichotomous approach of CLASH.

On semiotic predictability: Tartu Summer School of Semiotics 2015.

A potentially new interpretation of quantum mechanics posits the state of the universe as a consistent set of facts that are instantiated in the correlations among entangled objects. A fact (or event) occurs exactly when the number or density of future possibilities decreases, and a quantum superposition exists if and only if the facts of the universe are consistent with the superposition. The interpretation sheds light on both in-principle and real-world predictability of the universe.

Groove—defined as the pleasurable urge to move to a rhythm—depends on a fine-tuned interplay between predictability arising from repetitive rhythmic patterns, and surprise arising from rhythmic deviations, for example in the form of syncopation. The perfect balance between predictability and surprise is commonly found in rhythmic patterns with a moderate level of rhythmic complexity and represents the sweet spot of the groove experience. In contrast, rhythms with low or high complexity are usually associated with a weaker experience of (...) groove because they are too boring to be engaging or too complex to be interpreted, respectively. Consequently, the relationship between rhythmic complexity and groove experience can be described by an inverted U-shaped function. We interpret this inverted U shape in light of the theory of predictive processing and provide perspectives on how rhythmic complexity and groove can help us to understand the underlying neural mechanisms linking temporal predictions, movement, and reward. A better understanding of these mechanisms can guide future approaches to improve treatments for patients with motor impairments, such as Parkinson’s disease, and to investigate prosocial aspects of interpersonal interactions that feature music, such as dancing. Finally, we present some open questions and ideas for future research. (shrink)

Theoretical determinism, as it is usually ascribed to Laplace, is neither verifiable nor falsifiable and has therefore no real content. It is not the same as predictability of actually observable phenomena. On the other hand, predictability is not an abstract principle; rather it is true to a certain degree, depending on the phenomena considered. It can be discussed only by examining the scientific state of affairs. This is done in some detail for classical statistical mechanics. Much of a (...) recently published debate on determinism (Amsterdamski et al. 1990) is thereby obviated. (shrink)

In this discussion note we argue, contrary to the thrust of a recent article by Jenann Ismael, that resolving the paradox of predictability does not require denying the possibility of a natural oracle, and thus stands in no need of the response that she proposes.

We present a theoretical and an empirical challenge to Cushman's claim that rationalization is adaptive because it allows humans to extract more accurate beliefs from our non-rational motivations for behavior. Rationalization sometimes generates more adaptive decisions by making our beliefs about the world less accurate. We suggest that the most important adaptive advantage of rationalization is instead that it increases our predictability as potential partners in cooperative social interactions.

Theoretical determinism, as it is usually ascribed to Laplace, is neither verifiable nor falsifiable and has therefore no real content. It is not the same as predictability of actually observable phenomena. On the other hand, predictability is not an abstract principle; rather it is true to a certain degree, depending on the phenomena considered. It can be discussed only by examining the scientific state of affairs. This is done in some detail for classical statistical mechanics. Much of a (...) recently published debate on determinism (Amsterdamski et al. 1990) is thereby obviated. (shrink)

This book aims to identify the sociological reasons that resulted in the perceived lack of authority of precedents in civil law systems, starting from the premise that common law systems rely on precedents, while civil law systems do not. The reasoning is based on the sociology of law, mainly on Max Weber's theory, legal theory, and constitutional law. English common law, seen by Weber as a law devoid of formal rationality mainly because it does not allow for generalization and comprehensiveness, (...) became a predictable system through stare decisis. This serves to highlight not only that it is not to be confused with common law but especially to clarify that "binding precedents" are necessary as the law moves away from calculability. The transformation of civil law due to the impact of constitutionalism, the increasingly widespread use of general clauses, and the evolution of the theory of interpretation eliminated the pretensions of logical positivism and, consequently, the predictability upon which it would be achievable. However, if the law contemplated by Weber ceased to exist and the new law came to depend largely on the subjectivity of the judge, this does not mean that society could remain helpless and devoid of guarantees of predictability and equality, as the new profile of civil law could not be compatible with a coherent legal order and a rational distribution of justice. In the end, the book seeks to demonstrate the fundamentality of precedent for the unity and development of law, clarity and generality, promotion of equality, institutional strengthening, limitation of state power, predictability, economic rationality, respect for the law, and increased personal responsibility. (shrink)

The processing of words in sentence reading is influenced by both information from sentential context and information from previewing upcoming words, but how both effects interact during online reading is not clear. In this study, we tested the interaction of predictability effect and the preview effect in predicting reading processing. In the experiment, sentence constraint was controlled using all high-constraint sentences as materials. We manipulated both the predictability of the target word in the sentence and the semantic relationship (...) between the preview word and the target word as predictors of the semantic preview effect. The results showed that the semantic preview effect was present only when the target word had low-predictability in the sentence but was not observed when the target word had high-predictability in the sentence. The results suggest that contextual information in reading can modulate the pre-activation of words and thus influence whether the preview word has a priming effect. The results of this study provide further evidence that reading comprehension involves an interactive system of processing multiple sources of information at multiple levels. (shrink)