A Machine Learning Approach to Understanding the Genetic Role in COVID-19 Prognosis: The Influence of Gene Polymorphisms Related to Inflammation, Vitamin D, and ACE2

Jaurrieta-Largo et al., International Journal of Molecular Sciences, doi:10.3390/ijms26167975, Aug 2025
Vitamin D for COVID-19
8th treatment shown to reduce risk in October 2020, now with p < 0.00000000001 from 138 studies, recognized in 18 countries.
No treatment is 100% effective. Protocols combine treatments.
6,600+ studies for 220+ treatments. c19early.org
Retrospective 338 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Spain showing that genetic polymorphisms in inflammation, vitamin D, and ACE2-related genes can predict COVID-19 pneumonia, mortality, and rehospitalization with high accuracy.
Reviews covering vitamin D for COVID-19 include1-44.
Jaurrieta-Largo et al., 18 Aug 2025, Spain, peer-reviewed, 9 authors. Contact: joseluis.perez@uva.es (corresponding author), sofia.jaurrieta@uva.es, jpmiramontes@uva.es, luis.corral@uva.es, miriam.gabella@uva.es, sofia.perez.arroyo@estudiantes.uva.es, ana.torres@uclm.es, jorge.mateo@uclm.es, ricardo.usategui@uva.es.
A Machine Learning Approach to Understanding the Genetic Role in COVID-19 Prognosis: The Influence of Gene Polymorphisms Related to Inflammation, Vitamin D, and ACE2
Sofía Jaurrieta-Largo, José Pablo Miramontes-González, Luis Corral-Gudino, Miriam Gabella-Martín, Sofía Pérez-Arroyo, Ana M Torres, Jorge Mateo, José Luis Pérez-Castrillón, Ricardo Usategui-Martín
International Journal of Molecular Sciences, doi:10.3390/ijms26167975
The genetic background influences the outcomes of COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of polymorphisms in genes linked to the RAAS system, cytokine production, and vitamin D on COVID-19 severity, with the goal of gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic etiology related to COVID-19. This study involved 338 COVID-19 patients and employed machine learning methods to identify the genetic variants that most significantly affect COVID-19 severity. The results revealed that polymorphisms in the IL6, IL6R, IL1α, IL1R, IFNγ, TNFα, CRP, VDR, VDBP, and ACE2 genes are the most significant genetic factors influencing COVID-19 prognosis, particularly in terms of the risks of COVID-19 pneumonia, mortality, rehospitalization, and associated mortality. The machine learning methods achieved an AUC of 0.86 for predicting COVID-19 pneumonia, mortality, and mortality related to rehospitalization, as well as an AUC of 0.85 for rehospitalization within the first year. These results confirm the crucial role of genetic background in COVID-19 prognosis, facilitating the identification of patients at increased risk. In summary, this research demonstrates that genetics-driven machine learning models can pinpoint patients at heightened risk by primarily focusing on genetic variants associated with ACE2, inflammation, and vitamin D.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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DOI record: { "DOI": "10.3390/ijms26167975", "ISSN": [ "1422-0067" ], "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijms26167975", "abstract": "<jats:p>The genetic background influences the outcomes of COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of polymorphisms in genes linked to the RAAS system, cytokine production, and vitamin D on COVID-19 severity, with the goal of gaining a deeper understanding of the genetic etiology related to COVID-19. This study involved 338 COVID-19 patients and employed machine learning methods to identify the genetic variants that most significantly affect COVID-19 severity. The results revealed that polymorphisms in the IL6, IL6R, IL1α, IL1R, IFNγ, TNFα, CRP, VDR, VDBP, and ACE2 genes are the most significant genetic factors influencing COVID-19 prognosis, particularly in terms of the risks of COVID-19 pneumonia, mortality, rehospitalization, and associated mortality. The machine learning methods achieved an AUC of 0.86 for predicting COVID-19 pneumonia, mortality, and mortality related to rehospitalization, as well as an AUC of 0.85 for rehospitalization within the first year. These results confirm the crucial role of genetic background in COVID-19 prognosis, facilitating the identification of patients at increased risk. 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