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Both Trump’s Iran war and the closely connected Israeli war for Jewish hegemony across the Middle East are unravelling fast.

Both Trump’s Iran war and the closely connected Israeli war for Jewish hegemony across the Middle East (termed ‘Permanent Security’ in Israeli military vernacular) are unravelling fast.

Iran is standing defiant in the face of Trump and Israel’s threats, leaving Trump gambling the entire U.S. economy and its global strategic standing on conjuring up a decisive ‘win’ over Iran — however deceitful and Pyrrhic that ‘win’ might prove to be.

Trump has now arrived for the summit in China (reportedly with little groundwork preparation ahead of the visit). Possibly he relies on his usual hubristic notion — that China needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs China — and he will tell Beijing that ‘you (Xi) have to instruct Iran’ that time is moving on, and that it should capitulate to the U.S..

Well that’s not going to happen. China supports Iran’s fight for sovereignty and shares with Russia the Iranian objective of seeing the U.S. gone from the Middle East. They want instead a Gulf-led security architecture to replace the American one. Moscow concurs.

Maybe Xi — in politest of language, of course — will tell Trump, rather, that it is Washington that should concede to Iran. The longer he delays, the harder any U.S. course correction will prove to be.

In any event, despite the innate Trumpian hubris, the U.S. President arrives in Beijing bereft of ‘big wins’ (if Venezuela is counted as a gimmick, rather than a strategic victory). Contrarily and more significantly, Beijing understands that the U.S. hovers at the brink of an economic inflationary catastrophe, whereas China largely is insulated from the coming global energy shock and is in price deflation, rather than experiencing inflation.

Put bluntly, there is almost nothing that Xi wants from the U.S., but in the interests of harmony, they may buy some soya beans (to save U.S. farmers) and perhaps some airplanes. (Even though soya beans are not really required by China which has been purchasing them easily from Brazil).

Trump has taken with him to China an entourage of U.S. oligarchs — presumably in the expectation that China will give him business valued in several ‘billions’; but China’s response may be somewhat scant. They are angry, reportedly, at the games the U.S. Treasury Secretary has been playing with sanctions on Chinese firms, the seizure of Chinese oil tankers, and the obvious attempt by Trump to squeeze China out from the Western Hemisphere.

What looms in the backdrop however, is darker: America’s collapsing standing as the unipolar hegemon — and the consequential global instability. The Iran war has provided the world with an object lesson of a major world power stuck in a conceptual rut from the Cold War era. One that refused to see the writing on the wall of a tectonic change that required it to ‘move on’ from its ‘end of history’ complacency, though all the signs of a shift to another ‘way of war’ had been present since early this century.

The turning point came with the abundance of cheap and easily available tech components.

The U.S., as the Cold War began, chose a strategy of outspending the USSR – by going for high-end, high-cost weaponry – with a main focus being on air-power and mass aerial bombardment.

That approach, at the time, had seemed justified by the subsequent Soviet implosion. This collapse was presumed to have been triggered by the American maximal spend that had over-stretched the USSR (though the collapse is now well understood to have been more a matter of a more complex internal corrosion from within).

The paradigm of western reliance on a preponderance of air power delivered by hugely expensive airframes has been blown apart and demonstrated to be ineffective by Iran’s asymmetric missile and naval warfare using weapons costing a few hundred dollars versus U.S. defence interceptors costing tens of millions.

The entire world can see the main lessons emerging from the Iran war: Firstly, that the western defence posture is as outdated as the dodo. The Establishment fell asleep, believing that the ever more billions of dollars ploughed into the Military Industrial Complex would give the U.S. a military edge that crucially would also provide the underpinning to its dollar hegemony to print more money for more weapons.

In practice however, it yielded massive corporate corruption and functionally poor, yet hugely expensive, armaments.

Of course, it is horses for courses — but up against more revolutionary adversaries, it is the latter who are out-innovating and out-manoeuvring western powers. All can see it, and are already adjusting.

China can see how small, fleeter Iranian naval assets ran rings around the large lumbering naval vessels of the U.S. Navy. The lessons naturally will be applied to Taiwan, should the U.S. seek to exert naval pressure on China in the Taiwan context.

Russia too will have noticed how a carefully graduated and selectively targeted missile offensive provided Iran with deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. Moscow likely will be thinking in these terms in respect to missiles of British, French and German origin that have been striking deep into Russia, whilst using NATO airspace and intelligence facilitation.

The accelerating global perception of the U.S.’ decline however, rests on more than just its failure to adapt to Iran’s asymmetrical war. More significant even than the sense of cognitive dissonance reigning in the White House is the perception that Trump is a full partner to Israel’s predations across the region.

The U.S. bequeathed Israel the same doctrine of air war dominance, underpinned by ultra expensive U.S. air frames that were intended to give Israel a ‘qualitative edge’ in maintaining its regional primacy. Israel’s failure in Iran, of its flailing conflict with Hizbullah, and of the unfinished war in Gaza, are the evidence of the failure of the approach — not of success.

It is worth noting that before the Israeli shift toward the U.S. ‘way of war’, the founder of the Israeli state and its first PM, Ben Gurion’s defence doctrine for Israel was different.

Ben Gurion emphasised that Israel was geographically a small state; with a small population and limited economic resources. In such circumstances, it would not be able to afford a large standing professional army. It would need a small professional army, supported when necessary by a large cadre of reservists.

Ben Gurion grounded his argument on the need for Israel to have, as well as a defence force, a strong economy to provide for the community and the state — all of which reinforced the need for a small army. He also assumed the Clausewitzian stance that ‘war is the continuation of politics by other means’ and not an end in itself, but a part of the political game.

 

A U.S. carrier no longer induces fear as once it might have; It now radiates vulnerability.

Although the Iran war largely has been viewed through the lens of conventional western warfare, its lessons are anything but conventional. They are in fact insurrectionary.

The post-war western approach (especially in the Cold War context) relied on the ability to outspend any military adversary through the acquisition of high-end, over-engineered and costly manned aircraft and munitions. Dominance of airspace and heavy reliance on aerial bombardment, i.e. air-war, was the doctrinal end.

The expenditure overmatch (as well as an imputed technical innovation) was viewed as the crucial element in the confrontation with the USSR.

Similarly, the impulse in naval warfare was toward investment in ever bigger carriers and their associated tiers of naval support vessels.

In ground warfare, the weighting in the Iraq War’s ‘Desert Storm’ was on tanks ‘punching’ and thrusting through the adversaries’ defence lines – though this approach was dropped by the West in Ukraine following the turn to 21st century drone-led ‘trench warfare’ on the front line.

The high-end outspend-approach both favoured the U.S.’ Military Industrial Complex, and together with U.S. dollar hegemony, provided America with the unique advantage of allowing the U.S. effectively to ‘print’ those high-end overmatch supplementary expenses.

Then came the Iran war of 2026, whose asymmetric model upended conventional doctrines.

Instead of dominance of the air space, Iran pursued not aerial supremacy, but rather advanced missile dominance of air space.

Instead of surface-situated military infrastructure, missile armouries, launch facilities and much missile production were dispersed across Iran’s huge geographic areas and buried deep within underground missile cities and mountain ranges.

The key transformation to the asymmetric approach, however, was the advent of easily available cheap tech components. Whilst the West was spending millions of dollars for each interceptor, Iran and allies were spending hundreds.

The advantage of dollar hegemony has thus slipped away and turned instead to liability – the inflated cost of U.S. munitions and their high-end engineering has resulted in sclerotic supply-lines, long production cycles and minimal weapon inventories.

The supposed tech superiority of U.S. weapons is being surpassed too, by ‘garage’ and ‘workshop’ gigs using cheap tech components. They generate innovation which is then picked-up and scaled after informal testing by ‘military authorities’.

This trend is particularly evident in the Russian army, where initial ‘garage’ tech has been trialled and then implemented across the military structures. This applies to both tech hardware and to internet AI innovation.

In the same vein, Hezbollah’s innovation of its fibre-optic controlled drones has transformed the war in south Lebanon – imposing severe losses on Israeli tanks and troops, to the point to which the IDF may be compelled to withdraw from the south.

Likewise, asymmetry and innovation in the seaways are upending the traditional western reliance on large heavy naval vessels and carriers. The latter have become ‘white elephants’ of the Persian Gulf ‘war’ as they are driven so far off from Iranian coastline by drone swarms and threats of anti-ship missiles that their deck-based strike-aircraft are limited in their attack capabilities by the requirement to re-fuel from tankers over target.

To see a literal ‘swarm’ of many tens of armed fast speedboats approaching a lumbering conventional naval vessel only serves to underline their vulnerabilities. In any event, Iran has other anti-ship weapons at its disposal.

In short, a U.S. carrier no longer induces fear as once it might have; It now radiates vulnerability.

Iran’s new sea warfare, however, also includes loitering high-speed submersible drones (or torpedoes) that can loiter for up to four days and which are equipped with AI targeting capabilities. These drones can be launched from underwater tunnels running beneath the Hormuz surface.

Iranian innovation admittedly has been long-planned and developed. Its’ effectiveness has been demonstrated during the conflict with Israel and the U.S. Iran has withstood the Israeli and American carpet-bombing (albeit whilst incurring heavy damage and casualties), yet Iran continues to have control of the Strait, plentiful missile inventories, and destroyed,unusable U.S. military bases in the Gulf.

That is the Iran war experience. But the wider strategic point is that it has demonstrated that the western ‘way of war’ has been eclipsed by cheap innovative tech and careful asymmetrical planning.

The western model can provide devastating damage – of that there is no doubt – but its lack of surgical application is also counter-productive in an age of mass media and smartphone photography that testify to civilian death, destruction and suffering.

The second point is that the West remains a cumbersome giant that has failed to understand – let alone anticipate – the new asymmetric war. Innovation has been stymied by the consolidation of the Military Industrial Complex into a few bureaucratic monopolies.

The western way of war is a bust model when ranged against a sophisticated asymmetric opponent.

But others have indeed noticed the lessons from the Iran war. Russia is one; China is another. There will be more. The West can expect to see the lessons surface in different garbs in the West’s other wars.

The European élites may find that their facilitation of Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russia may draw a different (kinetic) response in the near future. The warnings have been issued. Will they be heard?


Video Link

 
• Category: Foreign Policy, History • Tags: American Military, Donald Trump, Iran 

Trump today seems torn between the prospect of ‘heavy’ military escalation and an extended Hormuz blockade.

Putting two sides together — let alone three — who have wildly diverse chronicles of their histories and even less commonality in charting their future national trajectory was innately unlikely to reach an agreed settlement. More likely in such ill-prepared encounters is often an ill-tempered recapitulation of the general lack of congruence.

This was the case in last month’s Islamabad ‘talks’ between the U.S. and Iran — with Israel acting as third-party proxy for ‘collective forces’ trying to ‘force the end’ (a Greater Israel regional hegemony) — by demanding effectively massive (and unrestricted) regional territorial control for Israel.

For such talks to serve a purpose, they would have to concretise an underlying level of agreement between the parties — if such can be found. Otherwise, the best that may emerge will be informal arrangements that are never formalised, but may, in the instant, suit the interests of the parties involved. Such understandings last as long as they last. That’s it.

Esmail Baqaei, spokesman of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, noted that over these 47 years, deep distrust and suspicion have accumulated with the U.S.:

“You should not expect that within a short period of time, after an extraordinarily bloody war, in which … Iran, having fought two regimes armed with nuclear weapons, two exceptionally ruthless regimes, whose brutality we witnessed over the past two and a half years in the crimes of Gaza and Lebanon, would quickly reach a settlement [with us]”.

Aurelien succinctly outlines the impasse:

“The U.S. (present) and Israel (present by proxy) want to damage and if possible, destroy Iran as a functioning state. For the U.S., this is revenge for nearly fifty years of humiliation, dating from the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the disastrous failure of the subsequent rescue mission – as well as for Iranian attempts to frustrate U.S. policies in the Levant. For Israel, the objective is to destroy the only country standing between them and their domination of the region. (The U.S. also represents this objective vicariously). The Iranians obviously want to prevent all this, but they also want an end to sanctions and isolation”.

Esmail Baqaei adds:

“Our central concern is that we reach a point as soon as possible where we can say with confidence that the threat of war [against Iran] no longer exists”.

The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, expands on the Iranian objectives by stating explicitly:

‘A new era has begun in the Strait of Hormuz, and American hegemony has come to an end’.

In short, Iran is determined to achieve a ‘breakout’ from the ‘cage’ of 74 years of U.S. military encirclement — sanctions, siege and political isolation — and by so doing, as the Supreme Leader noted, to radically change the geopolitical complexion of the entire region.

Israeli military sociologist Yagil Levy, writing in Haaretz however, argues that Israel’s behaviour notably altered in the wake of the 7 October attacks, and in its aftermath is defined by the

“adoption of a ‘hard’ version of Permanent Security … The latter was [in fact], perceived as already having been achieved [through] military superiority and of international tolerance”.

“Relative permanent security, the ‘soft’ version, was [contrasted] to a remnant of the security concept that made the [7 Oct] Hamas attack possible – even if the attack was caused by an Israeli omission and did not constitute a new real threat”.

“Permanent Security” — a concept originally coined by historian Professor Dirk Moses — was seen in Israel, post-7 October, as not only offering the the elimination of immediate threats, but also future ones:

“Striving for a permanent solution does not allow for compromise, whether political or deterrent, but rather involves the extermination, expulsion, or control of a population perceived as a threat to the security of the state”.

(Professor Dirk Moses has outlined that the term ‘permanent security’ in fact originates from Otto Ohlendorf,

“a Nazi war criminal, who before being hanged … at Nuremberg by the Americans, [said that] … Jewish children would have grown up to become partisan enemies … [and that we] had to understand that the Germans didn’t just want regular security but permanent security: they were building a thousand-year Reich”).

Meron Rapoport and Ameer Fakhoury outline how the latest war on Iran,

“elevated the concept of “permanent security” to yet another level. It was no longer enough to strike hard at leaders, nuclear facilities, and military targets, as Israel did in June 2025. This time the objective was regime change— not merely neutralizing a perceived threat, but reshaping the political environment itself”.

Jewish historian and scholar, Gershom Scholem, we know had already predicted that religious Zionism operates as a “militant,” “apocalyptic” and “radical” messianic movement that tries to “force the end” [i.e. Redemption] by demanding the State engage in, for example massive territorial control.

In short, Scholem, widely regarded as a leading expert on Messianic Judaism, was predicting in effect Israel’s turn toward Permanent Security, not as a security measure alone, but as a tool of militant Zionist messianism.

At the present time, by any standards, Iran, America and Israel’s ‘deeper interests’ are about as distant from each other as one can imagine. Both Israel and Iran seek to transform fundamentally the political complexion of the Middle East. All that is in the realm of possibility with talks therefore is short-term, limited measures that might temporarily suit the U.S. and Iran, but almost certainly will not be acceptable to Israel (nor to its lobbyists and mega-donors in the U.S.).

The U.S. desperately needs an exit-ramp — and negotiations would seem to be the normal mechanism for this. But negotiations in the traditional sense would lead effectively to a perceived U.S. surrender, and if protracted, to a catastrophic economic disaster resulting from the consequences of Iranian control of the Hormuz.

Trump today seems torn between the prospect of ‘heavy’ military escalation (advocated by the Israeli-First faction) in the hope of securing an Iranian capitulation, and an extended Hormuz blockade (albeit porous), advocated by Secretary Bessent, speaks to the notion of yet another ‘forever war’. Neither option is without profound consequences.

 

Washington will not be able to think straight about Iran, and will opt for the wrong tactics.

Some fifteen years ago I wrote that western reliance on its lens of secular rationality was no longer adequate as a means to understand the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was becoming obvious — even then — that the future of the region would be one of wars increasingly defined by religious symbols: i.e. Al-Aqsa versus the Third Temple.

Since then, things have moved on: In Israel, national elections in November 2022 brought a new leadership committed to founding Israel on the ‘Land of (Greater) Israel’; displacing the non-Jewish population and implementing Halachic law.

The new government’s platform was an expression of an eschatological and messianic purpose with a teleology of pursuing a path toward messianic Redemption. It was not secular, nor couched in Enlightenment tones.

My point then — and still is — that Western secular mechanistic ways of thinking will misunderstand these fundamental shifts. The West insists to apply its westernised conceptual precepts to something — Messianism and the pursuit of Redemption — that lies outside the frame of today’s post-modern western consciousness. We understand well enough power politics, but eschatology largely is a closed-book to most western seculars.

The bottom line is that no purpose is served in trying to convince those absorbed by a messianic vision that their solution consists of a two-state political structure in historic Palestine. The former actually welcome Armageddon and the defeat it would portend for non-Jews.

Nor can this be viewed as a passing phase, or a whim. Messianism has been a prominent, yet fluctuating, impulse in Judaism since Sabbatai Zevi (1660s) and Jacob Franks (18th century). (Some of its thinking filtered into European notions too, during the later Enlightenment period).

Jewish historian and scholar, Gershom Scholem, correctly predicted that religious Zionism — which in recent decades has aligned with Likud and the settler movement — operates as a “militant,” “apocalyptic,” and “radical” messianic movement that tries to “force the end” by demanding that the state engage in, for example, massive territorial control — i.e. they demand territorial conquest for end-of-times reasons.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, western mechanistic rationality however, has proved to be as much at a loss in its grasp of what motivates Iran as it is in understanding today’s Israel. The literal approach simply amputates any awareness of Iran’s deeper resistance and revolutionary anima.

Rather, we choose to project onto Iran our image of the 19th century nation-state – – the concept of a state ruled by top-down, centralised government as the dominant, sometimes autocratic, vehicle of rule over which wider polities once were governed through other principles of legitimacy.

In an interview in 1979 with Richard Falk, Ayatollah Khomeinei said plainly that the Revolution was a civilizational rather than a national triumph. He stressed that he felt that the basic community for all people in the Islamic world was civilizational and religious – – and not national and territorial. Khomeini explained that territorial sovereign states built around national identity did not form a natural community in the Middle East in the way they did in Europe.

His insistent theme was to express the view that a government consistent with Islamic values could not be reliably established on democratic principles without it being subject to unelected religious guidance from top Islamic clerical scholars as the source of highest political authority.

The repression of Islam (forced secularisation) and the destruction of the Caliphate pursued by Mustafa Kamal in the early 1900s had led Seyyed Qutub to preach revolutionary vanguardism until his execution in 1966. Qutb’s writings, but more particularly his Social Justice in Islam — coinciding with mass protests throughout the Muslim world at the partition of Palestine in 1947 — laid the principal groundwork for the revolutionary thinking that would emerge in Iran.

For Iranians, this was a call to a return to an earlier way-of-being, with a storied lineage, reaching far back — one that reflects a more spiritual and inward transformation of the human: A world of hierarchical modes of consciousness and a disposition to fight against oppression, and to care for the dispossessed.

Thus, to view Iran through the nation-state lens is to misread Iran. The limits of mechanistic thinking make it impossible for outsiders to grasp or predict the way ahead for Iran. Today, young Iranians are returning enthusiastically to the ethos encompassed in the 1979 Revolution. There is a new energy apparent in Iran — and it is radical. And its reverberations are spreading well beyond the borders of Iran.

If we in the West want to hear and understand, then it would be wise to first hold up a mirror to ourselves. Are we truly so secular and rationally strategic as we believe?

U.S. military historian Michael Vlahos, in a long essayAmerica is a Religion — points out that the U.S. itself is far from unaffected by the currents of messianic idealism, millenarianism and Manichaeism – – “This is an enduring theme whose deep current flows into Christianity”:

“Since its founding, the United States has pursued, with burning religious fervour, a higher calling to redeem humanity, punish the wicked, and christen a golden millennium on earth. America has steadfastly hewed to its unique vision of divine mission as “God’s New Israel”.

Of course, American ‘Civil Religion’ is inextricably linked with the Reformation, Calvinist Christianity, and Protestantism. “Although its scriptural reading became secular in the Progressive era, the American religion still remained tethered to its formative roots”, Vlahos argues.

“Hence, America is not only “messianic” in character — as in, “possessed by passion and zeal” — but manifests an implicitly biblical vision proclaiming its faith in the predestined nature of its passage. A “chosen nation” divinely elected to act in the name of Providence as the world’s Redeemer”.

However, as Vlahos tells it — like with the Zionists in Israel, in the last election — the U.S. had its moment of metamorphosis: It was triggered by 60 years (1963-2023) of repeated and unrequited battlefield débâcles:

 

Trump’s tariff war will be seen in retrospect to be peanuts to the threatened strike on China’s supply lines.

We are entering upon a new stage to this war on Iran. It may not be what many expect (especially in financial markets). Yesterday Trump said inter alia that Hormuz was open and that Iran had agreed never to close Hormuz again; that Iran, with the help of the U.S., has removed, or is removing, all sea mines, and that U.S. and Iran would work together to extract Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU). Trump wrote:

“We’re going to get it together. We’re going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery … We’ll bring it back to the United States very soon”.

The President said earlier on Friday that Iran had agreed to hand over Iran’s HEU stockpile.

None of these claims were true. Either Trump was confabulating (holding to fantasies, albeit believing them to be true); or he was manipulating markets. If the latter – it was a success. Oil fell and markets soared. Reportedly, 20 minutes before the claim that the Strait of Hormuz was open and would never close again, a $760 million short on oil was placed… Someone ‘made a pile’.

All this turbulence created much confusion. Trump also said a new round of talks and an likely agreement with Iran would happen very soon — even during this weekend. The likelihood of talks is false. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reports that “the American side has been informed via the Pakistani mediator that we [Iran] do not agree to a second round [of talks]”.

From the beginning of the mooted Pakistani-mediated ceasefire, Iran was supposed to allow the daily passage of a limited number of ships. However, this was always subject to Iranian conditions for transit passage.

The net result of Trump’s manipulations has been to make Iran re-assert its existing conditions on Hormuz, on its stocks of HEU, and on its ‘right to enrich’ in tighter, less flexible definition.

The Islamabad talks had already showed Iran that its 10-point framework — initially affirmed by Trump to form a “workable basis” for beginning of direct negotiations with Iran — was no such thing. The Iranian framework was brushed aside towards the end of the day, as the U.S. pivoted to its key touchstones for its intended victory roll: Iran abandoning uranium enrichment in perpetuity; relinquishing to the U.S. its stock of 430kg of 60% enriched uranium, and the opening of Hormuz — free of tolls.

In short, the U.S. position was simply a continuation of Israel’s long-established demands. This added experience of Friday’s U.S. deceit will only have served to confirm Iran’s conviction to be continually on their guard and to view the contrived confusion as a possible U.S. diversion from planned military escalation.

Iran, in refusing these key demands, triggered the U.S.’ sudden, end of day, pulling of the plug on Islamabad, and thus pointed up the pivotal context behind the U.S. ‘walk out’: Netanyahu was frustrated. Very frustrated. “As [Netanyahu] tells it, ‘the media’, that convenient all-purpose ‘villain’, has managed to cement the narrative that Israel lost the [Iran] war”, Ravit Hecht has written in Haaretz:

“Not many people understand the power of short, sharp and unequivocal messaging – better than Netanyahu … With time running short and his international standing eroding – Netanyahu is desperate to deliver at least one unequivocal success story from the ambitious goals he proclaimed in the first week of the war – when hubris and adrenaline still seeped into every government briefing”.

“Regime change in Tehran? No longer on the table. The vague goal of “creating conditions” for such a change has evaporated. Ending Iran’s ballistic missile program now seems wildly unrealistic; Netanyahu’s ministers acknowledge that as well. As for Iran’s network of regional proxies, its influence may become subtler, but few believe it can be dismantled altogether”.

“That leaves one card still in play: uranium”.

“Netanyahu’s circle hopes that, as in past crises, mounting pressure might compel Iran to export its enriched uranium stockpile. Netanyahu is staking everything on that outcome – or, on the possibility that renewed war could still destabilise the regime”.

This is why Vice-President Vance — who was almost hourly taking instruction from the White House or Tel Aviv— wound up the talks prematurely. A short sharp victory messaging on which Netanyahu’s future depends clearly was not about to emerge from the talks.

U.S. Constitutional U.S. lawyer, Robert Barnes (who is a friend of Vance), reports in an interview that:

“Trump began exhibiting signs of early dementia in September 2025 … He frequently confabulates, he routinely loses his temper and unleashes screaming rants and he is incapable of doing critical thinking. And – according to Barnes, in this state – Trump genuinely believes that the U.S. has vanquished Iran and does not comprehend the massive economic damage that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is doing to the global economy”.

In short, Barnes says that Trump’s delirium that Iran is at the point of capitulation reflects his impaired mental state — an impairment of understanding ‘reality’ (a panglossian interpretation that Secretary Pete Hegseth does his best to reinforce).

Like Netanyahu, Trump likely believes too, that pressure and more pressure on Iran could yield the triumphantVictory trophy of (figuratively) waving aloft 430 Kg of enriched uranium — either compelled to be given up by economic pressure, or alternatively dramatically seized on the ground by U.S. forces.

In the face of this crisis at the heart of the White House, Vice-President Vance reportedly (Barnes again) has been working feverishly behind the scenes to arrange a new meeting with Iran in Islamabad – despite the political process being deliberately impaired through massive Israeli air and ground attacks in Lebanon killing and injuring up to 1,000 persons (almost all civilians) during the ceasefire negotiations, as well as continued attacks since Trumpsupposedly “prohibited” Israel from attacking Lebanon at the start of the Lebanon ceasefire two days ago.

 

It seems likely that the negotiations will not produce an agreement.

The temporary cessation of hostilities across West Asia very much hangs in the balance. Originally, there was to be a cessation of military actions across “all fronts” including Lebanon — that being one of the ten Iranian preconditions to negotiations towards a permanent ceasefire. Trump duly affirmed that Iran’s 10-point framework provided a “workable basis” to begin direct negotiations with Iran.

For Iran, the points were seen as pre-conditions, rather than starting points from which negotiations would flow.

CBS has reported that Trump had been told that Iran’s terms, that he accepted on Thursday, would apply to the Middle East region as a whole – and he agreed that would include Lebanon. Mediators reported that the ceasefire would include Lebanon, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s announcement included it. Foreign Minister Araghchi also confirmed that Lebanon was included.

Trump’s position however reversed itself following a phone call from Netanyahu. According to Israeli correspondent, Ronan Bergman, writing in Yediot Ahoronot, Netanyahu suddenly and belatedly exploded the situation: In Israel, both echelons — military and political — were instructed to prove that there was no ceasefire for Hizbullah by mounting a huge attack on crowded residential neighbourhoods in Lebanon – killing and wounding over 1,000 persons, largely civilians.

And at the same time as the attacks on Lebanon were taking place, Israel announced that it sought to open a political initiative – direct talks with the Lebanese government centred on the disarmament of Hizbullah and on Lebanon’s normalisation with Israel – in order to buttress Netanyahu’s demand “for a short window of time for additional attacks against Hezbollah, before the Americans try to roll the same spirit of calm to Lebanon”, Anna Barsky writes in Ma’ariv.“Assessments in Israel speak of a partial American understanding of this need; but this is by no means assured”.

Alon Ben David, a prominent Israeli military correspondent, noted that the PM’s initiative might result in civil war in Lebanon, adding in parenthesis that ‘this had always been the objective’.

The Iranian equation however, runs counter to the ‘revised’ U.S. position that Lebanon was never integral to the ‘all fronts’ demand. For Tehran, it is ‘ceasefire for all, or ceasefire for no one’. It is that simple.

The negotiations were only going to take place if Trump was capable of imposing a veto on Netanyahu’s thirst for further rounds of blanket bombing in Lebanon. Has Trump effective agency to control Netanyahu — who (together with some Gulf states reportedly) still wants Trump “to go all the way, until the overthrow of the evil regime”, Ronen Bergman emphasises.

Yet the U.S. reality is stark:

“The U.S. has lost its naval presence and military bases in the Persian Gulf region; its entire inventory of stand-off munitions has been nearly exhausted, along with its air defences, which have been proven woefully ineffective”.

“This is what decisive strategic defeat looks like”.

As Ben Rhodes, former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor, put it: “It’s hard to lose a war this short: this comprehensively”.

What took Trump from a Tuesday night posting that “a whole civilization will die tonight”, to acquiesce a few hours later to negotiations on the basis of Iran’s 10-point plan is for conjecture. But perhaps the juxtaposed images of the crashed helicopter from President Carter’s ill-fated attempt to rescue U.S. hostages from Iran in 1980, together with the wreckage of U.S. aircraft near Isfahan from the abandoned Saturday (4 April) attempt to seize enriched uranium from a tunnel at Isfahan, tells its story.

As one commentator notes, the only thing missing from the later 1980 scene is the presence of the assassinated Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. President Carter, of course, became the political casualty from that event.

Let us recall too, that this current war was launched by a snap strike to kill the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamanei – and was expected to be a short war of days’ duration only. The NY Times report of the 11 February 2026 meeting at which Netanyahu persuaded Trump to join with an assault on Iran confirms that “the President appeared to think it would be a very quick war … (and) at no point during the deliberations did the Chairman [General Caine] directly tell the President that war with Iran was a terrible idea … [General Caine] would constantly ask, “And then what? But Mr. Trump would often seem to hear only what he wanted to hear”.

And what Trump chose to hear at the 11 February briefing dovetailed closely with Netanyahu’s own deep longings: “Iran stood apart” for Trump, as for Netanyahu. “He [Trump] regarded Iran as a uniquely dangerous adversary and was willing to take great risks to [fulfil] his desire to dismantle the Iranian theocracy”, the NY Times reported.

Neither Trump nor Netanyahu — despite the three-hour official briefing on 11 February — at all anticipated the strong Iranian response of immediate attacks on U.S. bases in the Gulf that swiftly ensued upon the killing of the Supreme Leader, though this prospect had been clearly prefigured in earlier Iranian warnings.

The entire 11 February strike plan that was green-lighted in the White House Situation Room meeting hinged on decapitation strikes, stand-off air bombardment, and a visceral (rather than evidence-based) conviction that an internal uprising surely would follow — one that would topple the state.

It is no surprise then, that Trump should now be desperately seeking an exit from the Israeli débacle that was set for him. Like Carter, he is on the rocks politically, as well as militarily. But any meaningful off-ramp will require of him to make major concessions — concessions that will grate painfully with his rancorous feelings toward Iran and Iranians.

It seems likely that the negotiations will not produce an agreement. Iran is engaged in exploding a 70 year-old paradigm through forcing — by threat of economic and market pain — a U.S. acquiesce to Iran’s ‘release’ from the panopticon of U.S. and Israeli repression. Will this involve more pain and death (more war), or less. That is the question.


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Trump now realises the war is lost – it may be lost, but it is not over. It may last for some time.

Bloomberg: “It is arguably Iran that has secured the most significant strategic victory … There is every sign that Tehran’s ability to control the Strait is increasing”

The defeats which the West keeps on having “[are] above all … intellectual”. And “not being able to understand what they are seeing – means that it’s impossible to respond effectively to it”. So Aurelien has argued. But “the problem goes beyond the fighting on the battlefield, to seeing and understanding the nature of asymmetric wars and their economic and political dimensions”.

“This is particularly the case for Iran, where… Washington appears to be incapable of understanding that the ‘other side’ does have a strategy with economic and political components – and is implementing it”.

“[In line with the western obsession with trivia], all the media concentration recently has been on the movement of U.S. troops to the region and their possible uses, as though that, in itself, was going to decide something. Yet in fact, the real issue is the development and deployment by the Iranians of a new concept of warfare, based on missiles, drones and defensive preparations, and the inability of the West, with its platform-centric mentality, to understand and process these developments [i.e., fully assimilate the strategy behind asymmetrical warfare]”.

Iran’s security concept and model was planned more than 20 years ago. The trigger for the move to an asymmetric paradigm came from the U.S.’ utter destruction of Iraq’s centralised military command in 2003, as a result of a 3-week massive air assault on Baghdad.

The issue for Iran that arose in its wake was how the country might build a deterrent military structure when it did not have (and could not have) anything resembling peer air capability. And when too, the U.S. could look down upon the extent of Iran’s military infrastructure from its high-resolution satellite cameras.

Well, the first answer simply was to have as little of its military structure out in the open to be observed from above. Its components had to be buried – and buried deeply (beyond the reach of most bombs). The second answer was that deeply buried missiles could indeed, in effect, become Iran’s ‘air force’ – i.e. a substitute for a conventional air force. Iran thus has been constructing and stockpiling missiles for more than twenty years. The third response was to divide Iran’s military infrastructure into autonomous provincial commands – to decentralise command centres, with each having separate stockpiled munitions, separate missile silos, and where appropriate, their own naval forces and militia.

In short, Iran’s military machine – in the event of a decapitation strike – was designed to operate as an automated, decentralised retaliation machine that cannot be easily stopped or controlled.

When unable to understand what is before our very eyes, the easiest thing is to reach for that which one knows – a build-up of troops – and to continue doing what hasn’t worked in the past.

In an earlier incarnation, a younger Trump – desperate to be admired as a star in the world of Manhattan real estate – took New York Attorney Roy Cohen to be his personal mentor. “The latter notably was also the lawyer for the city’s five big crime families – who had, with connections such as these, earned for himself the reputation as someone not to be messed with”, Israeli military commentator, Alon Ben David relates:

“In most cases, all Trump needed to do was to introduce Cohen to the other side of the deal, so that the latter would agree to his terms. Sometimes Trump was also forced … to drag the other side to court, where Cohen would bare his teeth to the judges and win. But that was always Trump’s bottom line: win. Not to make the pie bigger, not a win-win for both sides, but a victory for him alone – and preferably with the other side’s surrender”.

Time moves on, and today, as Ben David writes, the U.S. military juggernaut serves as Trump’s ‘Roy Cohen’. He presents the American military might for display to the Iranians in the expectation that they readily will capitulate; else he, Trump, will let go of the leash. Trump complained to Witkoff after the armada of U.S. naval vessels had been assembled off the Persian coast that he was ‘puzzled and confused’ as to why the Iranians had not already capitulated on sighting the collective naval power assembled.

“[The cause for Trump’s puzzlement is that] this time he faces an opponent different from any he has ever known. These are not Manhattan real estate moguls or Atlantic City mobsters, they are Persians, members of a 3,000-year-old culture, and they have different concepts of time and what victory is”.

Trump doesn’t now know what to do: he is confused and at a loss as to how to extricate himself from this predicament. He has threatened Iran, but they don’t capitulate. And as might be expected, Netanyahu, fearing that Washington might enter into negotiations with Iran before Iran’s military capabilities have been completely dismantled, “is pressuring the Trump administration to carry out a short, high-intensity operation that could include ground forces”, Israeli commentator Ben Caspit writes in Ma’ariv.

Whilst Trump is sending mixed messages about the prospects for talks with the Islamic Republic, Israeli officials believe he is considering three options: First to escalate the war by attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure on Kharg Island and at its South Pars gas field, with a second option being a ground operation to eliminate Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.

A third option being considered would be to negotiate an agreement with Iran – but such a prospect would be seen by Israeli leadership circles as a “clear Iranian victory, opening the path for the Iranian Republic to survive”, Caspit writes. “Israel is focused on weakening the regime to the point where it cannot recover – thus it hopes, maybe encouraging future mass protests. This argument is also being used to convince Washington to continue the war”, Caspit emphasises.

A fourth option could be that Trump just declares victory and walks away.

What, realistically, might Trump hope to accomplish if he expands the war?

First, both Israeli and U.S. military officials now consider that toppling the Iranian State is nigh impossible to achieve through airstrikes alone. It has never worked in the past.

Secondly, statements of faith by the U.S. Administration in say the ultimate military seizure of the Strait of Hormuz should be seen more as battle-cries and descriptions of fantasies which reveal a deeper problem–that of strategic lacunae —

“They are not deduced from the facts of the situation, nor do there have to be actual processes capable of making them happen. The truth is what we want it to be; the truth is what makes us comfortable, we prefer the myth to the reality”.

 

The short answer is ‘no’. Trump was confabulating when he said that he was already in negotiations with ‘important’ Iranians.

There is a back history to the U.S.’ ‘negotiations narrative’. In earlier rounds of ‘negotiations’ centred on the Ukraine conflict, Trump regularly would suggest that political negotiations with Russia were ongoing, when in practice, Witkoff and Kushner were simply engaging in a series of endless talks with the Europeans about establishing a ceasefire and the putative European-led ‘peacekeeping’ role that the Europeans were demanding. In fact, these ‘peace plans’ were never shared, or shown to Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

A prolonged ‘ceasefire’ then was seen by the White House as the bypass strategy to trying to resolve the entrenched security architecture issues between NATO and Russia’s sphere of security interests. Russia simply said ‘no’ to Trump’s attempt to ‘kick the security architecture can down the road’.

The same pattern of dissimulation was evident in the Gaza ceasefire talks: Ceasefires were proposed without specifying any details of what might follow in Phase Two of the ceasefire.

Last weekend, Witkoff and Kushner drew up their wish-list for yet another ceasefire — in Iran this time — with more ‘cans’ to be kicked along for later discussion. Same story. Same confabulation. A fifteen-point peace plan, drawn up by Witkoff and Kushner, was put to the client mediators — with its demands being hailed by Trump as “very good, and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of hostilities” — and with Iran “desperately wanting a deal”.

Iran, to Trump’s chagrin, said ‘no way’ to the proposal: Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson for the Iranian military said, “Our first and last word has been the same from day one, and it will stay that way”.

Iran has no interest in a compromise at this point as it has not achieved its (audacious) strategic ambition to overturn the long-standing U.S.-Israeli military and financial dominance of the Gulf region — and to remake it as a wide Iranian economic and military sphere of interest (‘hemisphere’, if you will).

In any event, Iran possesses the escalatory dominance in this conflict – through dint of decades-long preparation and planning. Iran has already demonstrated that it controls the twenty percent of global oil exported via the Hormuz Strait. It has therefore the tools (regulation of passage of vessels through the waterway) to manage the volume of oil exported, and, as significant, if not more so, the ability to influence its globally sensitive pricing (once the sole prerequisite of the U.S.).

More than just having one major component of the global economy under its thumb (oil), Iran effectively has much of the world’s supply lines and commodity production under its thumb too: Helium; fertiliser; food and Sulphuric acid all are to one extent or another dependent on Hormuz, and its closure for more than three weeks would create crippling shortages that would be unlikely quickly to disappear.

Manipulation of the oil economic lever, plus Iran’s insistence that vessels transiting the Straits both pay a fat fee and prove that their cargoes were purchased in Yuan, strikes also at the heart of Trump’s political vulnerability – the U.S. economy, in the run up to the U.S. Midterm Elections.

One regional report cautions:

“Iran has a permanent plan for checkpoints in the Strait of Hormuz to offset losses. Should the attacks that Trump threatens materialize, Iran will choke the Strait of Hormuz, close the Red Sea routes, and the Yemeni front will act to seal Bab al-Mandeb. Iran is also prepared to reclaim Bahraini ports if the situation demands”.

Trump once said that to lose dollar hegemony would be worse for America than losing a major war. Yet this is precisely what is in play in this ‘game of chicken’ which Trump started with Iran, but where he is now at a loss for how to exit, without damaging humiliation.

Washington is in shock”, Anna Barsky, chief political correspondent of (Hebrew language) Ma’ariv wrote in response to the Wall Street Journal outlining the list of counter demands that Iranian representatives have conveyed through mediators to the Trump team as Iran’s pre-conditions to a settlement:

“White House officials described the demands as “a wish list un-connected to reality on the ground””.

With these economic cards already in Iran’s hands, and with its readiness to match Israeli-U.S. bombardment escalation with its own retaliatory missile strikes on Gulf States’ infrastructure, pari passu, it seems inherently unlikely that Trump will get any plausible exit from war — not least because ‘Israel has a vote’ in this matter, and Israel has now shifted from the hope of ‘regime change’ to insistence that the U.S. seize Kharg Island in the Hormuz.

Israel has acknowledged that its hoped-for regime change objective in Iran has failed, write leading Israeli commentators (Ronen Bergman and Anna Barsky). So it is recalibrating its objectives – “Jerusalem [now] believes that the path to [an Israeli] victory runs through control of Kharg Island”, writes Barsky.

“According to this line of thought, if the [U.S.-Israeli] campaign does not lead to the overthrow of the regime, a much more tangible move is required – one that will deprive Iran of both the ability to export oil on a normal scale and its ability effectively to threaten maritime traffic”.

“This discussion leads to another conclusion: Without a physical presence at a key point, it is very difficult to prevent Iran from repeatedly returning to the same pattern … To change reality, actual control must be created. In this context, Kharg is presented as a target whose takeover could simultaneously deprive Iran of both strategic income and room for action”

But, notes Barsky, “It is estimated however, that the real difficulty is not on the operational side … It is in Washington”:

“The question is not whether the U.S. can reach Kharg and take control of the island. The question is whether Trump is willing to maintain a force there for a long time, with the possibility of casualties among American forces”.

Ex-CIA officer, Larry Johnson, writes that U.S. intervention in Hormuz likely is imminent and would be disastrous (i.e. lead to many American casualties):

 

Should Iran be able to maintain its choke-hold on the Hormuz, the geo-politics of Asia would be recast in a new strategic reality.

As we’re now in the fourth week of war, where next?

Firstly, although Iran has been subjected to intensive bombardment, the latter’s military effectiveness is far from evident. Iran’s ability to strike back at U.S. and Israeli interests in Gulf States continues with increasing power; its leadership operates effectively in its deliberately-chosen opaque mode (called mosaic); and Iran persists with regular missile and drone volleys, whilst incrementally elevating the sophistication of its missile barrage. Popular support for the Iranian State is consolidated.

The U.S. and Israeli barrages are causing heavy damage to Iran, but there is little evidence that these strikes have found – or destroyed – Iran’s dispersed and deeply buried missile ‘cities’ spread across the extent of the country. The evidence suggests rather, that in failing to destroy Iran’s hidden military infrastructure, the U.S. and Israel has turned its attention to civil targets aimed at demoralising the people – as we have seen deployed in the Lebanese and Palestinian arena.

Yet what seems incontrovertible is that Iran has a carefully thought-through strategy that is unfolding in distinct phases. Trump however, is without a plan. It changes daily. Israel does have a plan, which consists in assassinating as many of the Iranian leadership as their U.S.-provided AI can detect. Beyond that, Israel’s design is for Iran to be dismembered; divided into ethnic and sectarian statelets; and reduced to weak anarchy (on the Syrian model).

For now, the U.S. stated objectives show up as punctuated threats of escalation ranging from attacks on economic infrastructure (South Pars gas facilities) to two meaningful hits in the very near vicinity to Iranian nuclear sites (Nantaz and the joint Iranian-Russian operated Bushehr nuclear plant). Presumably these near missile strikes are intended as ‘messages’ to imply the possibility of a U.S. or Israeli escalation to the nuclear level. (Iran, however, responded in kind with a missile strike on Dimona town – in close proximity to Israel’s Dimona nuclear facility).

After the Dimona strikes that caused heavy damage, Iran made a significant and pointed statement: It claimed it had achieved “missile dominance”. This assertion was based on the fact that Israel had been unable to launch any air defence interceptors in the face of Iran’s strike against one of its most heavily guarded strategic state sites.

Mohammad Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Parliament and military leader, warned that the war has entered “a new phase”:

“Israel’s skies are defenseless … It seems the time has come to implement the next phase of our pre-designed plans …”.

There is little doubt, according to military commentator Will Schryver, that U.S. magazine depth (the U.S.’ storage sites) is approaching exhaustion and sortie generation has collapsed due to maintenance backlog and logistical sustainment incapacity. U.S. manned aircraft still do not penetrate deeply into Iranian airspace. Iran however, claims that their own magazine depth is plentiful.

Trump in the last days has upped the ante – giving Iran an ultimatum: ‘Open Hormuz within 48 hours or your civilian power plants will be progressively destroyed – starting with the biggest first’. (Iran’s biggest plant happens to be the joint Iranian-Russian operated Bushehr plant). It seems that Trump still looks to a quick Iranian capitulation. However, Iran has already rejected the ultimatum and has responded with one of its own.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s ultimatum to Trump

In a tightly structured 12-minute address, Ayatollah Imam Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei moved from familiar rhetoric into something far more consequential. The opening half of his address followed the expected script, but as reported by Lebanese commentator Marwa Osman:

“[M]idway through, the tone shifted from retrospective to strategic. Sayyed Khamenei outlined three concrete demands, each with a defined timeline: A rapid U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East: a full rollback of sanctions within 60 days, and long-term financial compensation for economic damages”.

“Then came the ultimatum: Fail to comply, and Iran escalates, economically, militarily, and potentially nuclearly. Not hypothetically, but operationally: Closing the Strait of Hormuz, formalizing defence ties with Russia and China, and moving from ambiguity to declared nuclear deterrence”.

The timing of external reactions was just as telling. Within hours, both Beijing and Moscow issued statements aligning in a carefully worded, yet unmistakable way, with the new Supreme Leader’s framing, suggesting coordination.

The war is entering a new phase. Trump has an eye on how the war is and will ‘play’ at home in the run-up to the November mid-term elections. U.S. minds on how, or whether, to vote tend to be made by September/October. His team is searching wildly to find the exit from the war that, by the summer, might project a plausible ‘win’ for Trump – if such a thing is even possible.

Simplicius suggests “that Trump’s potential coming attacks against Iran’s energy grid is to be a destabilizing and distracting effect meant to allow U.S. Marines and 82nd Airborne to take Kharg Island, or other Iranian islands. “Senior official” sources continue to claim that the boots-on-ground operation is still highly probable”.

Iran evidently is ready to match Trump on the escalatory ladder. Iran’s leadership style plainly has changed with the new Supreme Leader: He is no longer interested in incremental ‘toing and froing’. Iran’s leadership is going for decisive outcomes that will change the West Asian geo-strategic landscape.

And Iran believes that Hormuz represents the leverage with which to do this.

Iran has established a select and safe shipping corridor for approved and IRGC vetted vessels to transit the Hormuz Strait – provided that the cargo is paid in Yuan and subject to a fee. It is estimated that Iran potentially could earn $800 billion a year in fees from such a Suez Canal-type regulatory regime.

This, in theory, allows the energy market to be supplied, but with the proviso that Iran would simply close the Strait completely were Trump to implement his ultimatum.

 

Americans urgently need to discuss how to recover the elements that could lead to a recovery of a state governed by Americans’ own interests.

Western propaganda machinery – the West’s most powerful strategic weapon – has repeatedly asserted that U.S. forces have been winning a swift and sweeping victory over Iran. In tandem, Israeli intelligence officials are briefing western media saying they see increasing signs of disarray and chaos” within the regime in Tehran, adding that the Iranian chain-of-command has become marred by serious breakdowns.

And why not make such claims of sweeping victory? Trump presumably went into the war sublimely confident in America’s military prowess to obliterate the Iranian state structure, its command network and its military capacity. His generals seemingly endorsed the general proposition of destructive potential – adding however, several ‘buts’ that likely did not penetrate the Trumpian mental workings.

And that’s what Trump duly did – sweeping ‘obliteration’; continuous waves of stand-off bombing. To doubters of his success in collapsing Iran’s state structure, he retorts simply that we’ll obliterate all the more. ‘We’ll kill more of their leaders’.

Western (including Israeli) media, in wake of the 28 February strikes, in companion reports hailed too the devastating nature of the blow struck against Iran’s political and military leadership.

No attempt was made to critically think through the effect on a State that had been preparing an asymmetric response to this coming war for 20-40 years. No effort was made to think through the real impact of bombing a State that has taken all its military infrastructure (including its ‘air force’) off its land-surface, only to bury it in deep underground ‘cities’.

No effort was made to judge the impact of assassinations of Iran’s political and military leaders on the public mood. No understanding was made of how the Iranian de-centralised leadership ‘mosaic’ might provide a fast-reaction, pre-planned response to leadership decapitation. Nor was it considered that such a diffused leadership structure would allow Iran to pursue a long war of attrition against the U.S. and Israel – in contrast to the U.S.-Israeli insistence on short wars that do not strain popular resilience.

All mainstream reporting, by contrast, was focused on the scale of damage inflicted on Tehran and its people – carrying the implicit presumption that the civic demolition and high civilian deaths would, in itself, create the opposition that would ‘rise up’ and ‘seize’ the reins of national leadership.

That so little of this conflict was properly considered reflects the fact that the U.S. increasingly has modelled its war-fighting way-of-thinking on those long employed by Israel – with far-reaching consequences for the West’s future, perhaps.

Of course, there are professional U.S. military officers who repeatedly have warned of the short-comings of mass bombardment as a stand-alone strategic tool, arguing that it has never brought the expected results; but their cautionary messages have had little impact against the prevailing ‘obliteration’ zeitgeist.

The very language used by Trump and his team to describe Iranians as ‘evil’ and ‘murderous baby-killing’ sub-humans plainly is designed to polarise the clash to the point of excluding military strategies other than yet further ‘obliteration’.

Trump told New York Times journalists “that he did not feel constrained by any international laws, norms, checks or balances”, and the “only limits on his ability to use American military might” were “my [his] own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me”.

He reportedly expressed surprise that America’s sneak attack on the Iranian leadership had produced an immediate riposte of counter-strikes on American bases in the Gulf: ‘We hadn’t expected that’, Trump said; nor did he anticipate the subsequent selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although the Iranians explicitly warned that they would do exactly that. He knew the risk, yet still went ahead, saying he ‘did not think’ that the Iranians would assume control over the Hormuz choke point.

SOURCE: lloydslist.com

The terms by which the world trades in oil and gas

The consequence of Iranian control of the approximate 20% of global oil and a similar volume of gas that transits Hormuz gives Iran unique leverage over the whole dollar-based economic sphere. Yet it poses a special threat to Gulf States – for Hormuz also serves as the corridor for fertiliser, food supplies and much else too.

Hormuz’s selective closure therefore carries second and third-order global economic consequences for the world. As Lloyd’s Intelligence noted yesterday:

“Several governments — including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China — are in direct talks with Tehran, coordinating vessel transits via an emerging IRGC-run registration and vetting system … Lloyds … understands [that] the IRGC is expected to establish a more formalised vessel approval process in the coming days”.

So, why did Israel escalate so strategically in attacking Iran’s terminals receiving gas from the South Pars gas field that it shares with Qatar? Israel insists that Trump gave them a green light for the attack. Trump replied that “Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field earlier today without informing the United States or Qatar”.

 
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