Real Estate

Over the last year, nearly every FMCG executive I’ve spoken to whether sitting in Chicago, Paris, or São Paulo has echoed the same challenge: “We need to get closer to the consumer, faster.” Global brand, local nuance the future of FMCG growth depends on how well your leadership understands the street, not just the spreadsheet. It’s no longer enough to run a global playbook and hope for local resonance. Why? Because the center of gravity in FMCG has shifted. 84% of FMCG companies are now increasing local decision autonomy in key growth markets. (Bain FMCG Operating Model Report, 2023) → That means your CMO can’t be the only one with a finger on the pulse. → Your regional GM can’t just execute HQ strategy. → And your global leaders can’t lead with assumptions they need cultural fluency and operational humility. In other words: local-for-local is not just a supply chain shift. It’s a leadership shift. The most successful candidates weren’t those who had rotated through five global hubs. They were the ones who could… → Read the cultural nuances of consumer behavior in that specific region → Navigate the regulatory quirks that could derail a product launch → Influence global teams while building trust with local retailers → Speak the language literally and commercially They understood the street not just the spreadsheet. And they had the rare ability to connect what’s happening on the ground with what needs to be shifted at the center. These are the leaders FMCG needs now. → Strategists who don’t just adapt to the market, they anticipate it. → Operators who don’t wait for HQ they build and test in-market. → Connectors who know when to push back and when to align. Because in today’s world, speed and relevance win. And that doesn’t come from waiting for global sign-off. It comes from empowering the right local leaders. Here’s where I see many companies trip up: They treat “local” as junior. As operational. As reactive. The truth? Your next competitive edge may be a GM in Manila, a Marketing Director in Lagos, or a Commercial Lead in Warsaw who’s trusted enough to build strategy from the ground up. That’s what global FMCG companies are starting to understand and what we’re helping them solve for in every executive search we run. Not just global leaders who can work across regions…but local leaders who can lead across functions, cultures, and expectations while driving growth with urgency and empathy. This is the new face of global FMCG. Not centralized, but coordinated. Not rigid, but responsive. Not top-down, but built from the middle out. #ExecutiveSearch #FMCGLeadership #GlobalGrowth #ConsumerGoods #TalentStrategy #LeadershipHiring

The Missing Middle is Still Missing: Why I Believe We Need More Than Just Luxury and LIHTC In most cities, we have two dominant housing models: -Luxury apartments with rooftop decks and garage parking, funded by private capital, marketed at the highest rent the market will bear. -Affordable housing financed through Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), often restricted to those earning 30%–60% of Area Median Income. What’s missing is everything in between. What is “Missing Middle Housing”? Missing Middle Housing refers to the types of homes that used to be common but have largely disappeared from new construction: -Duplexes -Fourplexes -Bungalow courts -Walk-up apartments above corner stores -Small multi-family homes in walkable neighborhoods -Creative infill developments These housing types fill a crucial need for working-class people, teachers, firefighters, baristas, social workers, and young families who don’t qualify for LIHTC housing but also can’t afford luxury rent or a down payment on a single-family home. Why It’s Still Missing The reason we don’t see more of this is not because there’s no demand. It’s because our systems actively work against it. Zoning laws that ban multi-family housing in most neighborhoods Parking requirements that inflate costs and reduce feasibility Financing models that favor large-scale over small-scale development Public resistance to change, often rooted in misinformation or exclusion Developers aren’t incentivized to build Missing Middle housing. Cities rarely streamline it. And when we talk about housing policy, this middle tier gets lost in the noise between high-end and deeply affordable. What We Need to Change *We need zoning that allows for gentle density. *We need capital that supports small-scale, context-sensitive development. *We need public conversations that value housing diversity as a community strength. We also need to stop pretending that LIHTC alone can solve our affordability crisis. It’s one tool. A powerful one, yes. But it cannot be the only strategy on the table. It’s Time to Build the Middle When we build only for the top and the bottom, we leave out the majority of our communities. We erode economic mobility. We undermine walkability. We disconnect our neighborhoods from the people who hold them together. If we’re serious about equitable cities, we have to bring back the middle. Not just in price point, but in form, in access, and in who gets to live where.

Apartment rents always rise in the summer ... except not in 2025. For the first time since the GFC era, apartment rents declined over the June-July-August months. Is it a sign of the economy cracking? Maybe not. Read what the leading data providers are saying about apartment demand: CoStar: "Demand for U.S. apartments remains robust this summer." RealPage: "Apartment demand is gaining steam." Yardi: "Multifamily demand has remained strong." Additionally, the summer earnings calls from apartment REITs reported strong financial health among renters (at least the mid/upper-income renters who lease Class A/B apartments). So, what gives? Why are rents falling? Because we had more newly built apartments in active lease-up than at any point in nearly a half century. That's a lot of competition. A more competitive environment, in any industry, puts downward pressure on pricing. While a 0.23% reduction may not seem like much, it's a notable shift in a season where rents typically rise more than 1%. And the impact is much deeper in the highest-supplied markets, like Austin, Denver and Phoenix, where year-over-year rent cuts range from 5% to 8%. As if more evidence needed that rent cuts are supply driven and not demand driven, just look at San Francisco, San Jose, Chicago, Pittsburgh and New York. All five are still seeing 3%+ rent growth ... and there's very little new supply in any of them. It's all about supply and demand. #apartments #rents #housing

The Evolving Face of the US Homebuyer The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) 2024 report provides a fascinating snapshot of the US housing market’s buyer profile that looks significantly different than it did just a few years ago. The data reveals a changing homebuyer. The average buyer age has climbed to a record 56, underscoring the impact of high housing costs and rising interest rates that have sidelined younger would-be buyers. For first-time buyers, the average age is now 38, nearly a decade older than it was in the early 1980s. These changes signal a more mature buyer who brings accumulated wealth and likely more significant financial security to the table. Additionally, a fifth of all home purchases were made by single women, a notable demographic shift reflecting both a societal change in homeownership goals and an economic shift in who can afford to buy. By contrast, single men comprised only 8% of recent buyers. This snapshot highlights what many are calling a “bifurcated housing market,” where those able to buy homes are increasingly established, wealthier individuals, often using home equity from previous properties to secure cash purchases or make substantial down payments. This market has been largely inaccessible to younger buyers, who continue to face affordability challenges, limited savings, and reduced opportunities for financial support in the form of lower mortgage rates. With affordability gauges near record lows, first-time homebuyers hold a mere 24% share of the market, down dramatically from the 40% share held in pre-Great Recession years. Rising prices and interest rates have compounded these barriers, leading to a market where nearly three-quarters of all buyers have no children under 18 at home, reflecting an older and more established buyer profile than in decades past. While this report offers a look back, the trends it captures underscore a potential turning point. Recent mortgage application data suggests that prospective buyers who had previously been priced out or sidelined may begin to re-enter the market as interest rates stabilize. If these sidelined buyers do return, particularly younger and more diverse demographics, the profile of the typical buyer could again start to shift, gradually increasing diversity in age, household composition, and race among homebuyers. At Havas Edge, we’re continually analyzing these demographic shifts to support brands in delivering timely, targeted strategies that meet the realities of today’s buyers and the anticipated resurgence of those who’ve been waiting on the sidelines. #RealEstate #Homebuyers #MarketTrends #HousingEconomics #ConsumerInsights

India offers consistent returns, macro stability and strong governance, all the ingredients global real estate investors look for in a growth market.   In today's edition of The Economic Times, I discuss why India stands out as a premier destination for patient capital.   1️⃣ Consistent Growth Trajectory: India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy, with the IMF projecting 6.4% GDP growth for 2025 and 2026. 2️⃣ Enhanced Market Transparency: JLL's 2024 Global Transparency Index ranked India as the world's top improving market, creating a more transparent and predictable investment environment. 3️⃣ REIT Market Momentum: Indian REITs have delivered impressive 6-7% dividend yields, well above global averages, attracting substantial foreign investment over the past two decades. 4️⃣ Infrastructure & Technology Hub: The growth in sectors like warehousing, data centers and industrial facilities reflects India's transformation into a modern, digitally-enabled economy.   JLL is positioned to help investors navigate India's dynamic market through our deep local expertise and global platform, ensuring they maximize value from India's compelling real estate opportunities.   https://lnkd.in/dhaRFbBD

I spent the week trying to answer the question: How can I build a property management company with zero human employees? After studying every AI tool in multifamily, I found something surprising. Here's what would happen if machines ran your apartment building: A few months ago, I designed a hypothetical zero-employee development firm. Now, I'm tackling property management. I can't stop thinking about how close we are to this reality. From leasing to maintenance, there's now an AI tool for almost every step. So I designed a hypothetical property management company with zero employees: Asimov Management. The goal: a full-service multifamily property manager that happens to have no full-time staff. For this to work, we'll use AI and automation to cover: • Marketing and leasing • Pricing optimization • Virtual and self-guided tours • Tenant screening and onboarding • Customer service • Maintenance coordination • Renewals and reporting While the tech isn't 100% there yet, here's what I learned: What's already possible: → AI-powered leasing assistants handle most prospective tenant questions → Self-guided tours work through automated access control systems → Maintenance requests can be routed to third-party gig workers → Renewal offers can be automatically generated and negotiated Where we're stuck: → Physical maintenance still requires humans (robots can't fix toilets...yet) → Many residents still prefer talking to a human at a front desk → Preventative maintenance relies on technicians' intuition → Larger buildings (250+ units) struggle with full automation The reality: • The most valuable application isn't replacing property managers • It's giving them superpowers to handle more properties with less effort Here's what this means for property management: • Class definitions may shift as service expectations change • Tasks will be centralized rather than eliminated • Resident preferences may actually evolve to favor AI interactions • The best operators will blend automation with strategic human touchpoints From my experience founding Common in 2015, I learned something critical: The approaches that worked well at 50-unit properties often broke at 250 units. Technology can centralize most functions. But, some residents always prefer walking to the front desk rather than using an app. This could change as AI improves. Meaning residents may prefer the predictability of AI over unpredictable humans. We're already seeing this in ride-sharing, where Waymo beats Uber and Lyft in user retention. So how close are we to machines running property management? Perhaps far closer than we expect. What parts of property management do you think AI will transform first? Full letter on how I designed Asimov Management is linked in the comments.

The recent decline in mortgage rates—staying below 6.5% for most of September—is a meaningful shift for housing. Though it may not feel like much for those accustomed to 2% or 3% rates, even small drops can have a major impact on affordability.   For example, moving from 7% to 6.5% puts 2.125 million more households in a position to buy. If rates were to fall to 6%, that number more than doubles, pricing in another 4.246 million households.   That said, it's important to consider the underlying reason behind the decline: the cooling labor market. Our historical research shows a consistent two-phase dynamic between the economy and housing:   Phase 1. A slower job market initially reduces housing demand despite lower rates. This is driven by job insecurity and weaker consumer confidence. Phase 2. Falling interest rates eventually outweigh those headwinds, helping revive sales activity.   Right now, the housing market is still in Phase 1. This is consistent with the historical pattern where housing acts as a leading indicator—it slows before the broader economy but also turns the corner sooner. Zonda Alexander Edelman Trevor Tetzlaff Sean Fergus Sarah Bonnarens Tim Sullivan Keith Hughes Cameron McIntosh Kyle Cheslock

Yield Curve 101. When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when the curve steepens late in the cycle as the Fed must react to a weaker labor market that you become really scared. Yield curve dynamics represent a crucial macro variable, as they inform us on today’s borrowing conditions and on the market future expectations for growth and inflation. An inverted yield curve often leads towards a recession because it chokes real-economy agents off with tight credit conditions (high front-end yields) which are reflected in weak future growth and inflation expectations (lower long-dated yields). A steep yield curve instead signals accessible borrowing costs (low front-end yields) feeding into expectations for solid growth and inflation down the road (high long-dated yields). Rapid changes in the shape of the yield curve at different stages of the cycle are a key macro variable to understand and incorporate in your portfolio allocation process. There are 4 main yield curve regimes to consider: 1) Bull Flattening = lower front-end yields, flatter curves. Think of 2016: Fed Funds already basically at 0% and weak global growth. Yields stay put at the front-end and could meaningfully move lower only at the long-end, hence bull-flattening the curve. 2) Bear Flattening = higher front-end yields, flatter curves. 2022 was the bear flattening year: Powell raised rates aggressively to fight inflation, but he ended up choking the economy off. This was reflected in lower future growth and inflation expectations at the long-end of the curve. Front-end rates went higher, but the curve bear-flattened. 3) Bear Steepening = higher front-end yields, steeper curves. October 2023: yields are rising but it’s the long end which dominates the move because investors think the economy can handle higher rates for longer and they start pushing up the term premium. Rare and potentially dangerous if growth isn’t strong. 4) Bull Steepening = lower front-end yields, steeper curves This move tends to happen ahead of recessions as the Fed must intervene and cut rapidly as the recession approaches. Front end yields tumble and long end yields drop too but more slowly. The yield curve is a key indicator every macro investor should watch. Did you enjoy this post? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Private landlord sales running at twice the market average in London as low yields and higher mortgage rates hit refinancing and some seek to crystallise large capital gains ahead of possible tax changes to #CGT. We track how many homes for sale on Zoopla (part of Houseful) were previously rented. Its been steady at c1 in 10 for the last 2 years. 40% of these homes stay in the rental market with the remainder returning to home ownership. The geographic focus of disposals is concentrated in London which accounts for 2 in 5 landlord sales. London accounts for 1 in 5 private rented homes so landlords are selling at twice the market average. Analysis for the Financial Times this weekend shows disposals are in line with the share of private rented housing across the rest of southern England and below average across the rest of Great Britain. This trend is a combination of 1) the changing economics of buy to let with a mortgage and 2) the scale of uncrystallised capital gains for long term landlords. Higher mortgage rates and bank lending rules mean that a higher rate taxpayer cannot borrow more than 50% of the value of a buy to let property in London. Across the rest of the UK, where gross yields are higher, the impact of higher mortgage rates on refinancing costs is lower and 70% LTV is often still attainable. Still, we estimate 40% of landlords have no mortgage at all and a further 30% have low LTV loans of sub 50%. Stalling house price inflation in London - the average value of a flat is pretty much the same today as it was in 2016 - is also a key factor here and landlords may be taking capital gains now for re-investment. Long term landlords are sitting on some of the biggest capital gains and the prospect of further changes to taxation may see more disposals this autumn. This will keep the rental 'supply side' under pressure in London although more new homes sales to corporate investors is growing supply. We will have to see what actually appears in the autumn #budget but further tweaks to taxation that impact landlords and longer term requirements to improve energy efficiency will continue to influence decisions and support the ongoing rationalisation of the private rented sector. #PRS #BTL #mortgage #housing #renting #BTR #multifamily

Racial representation becomes increasingly homogeneous at more senior levels We recently posted about gender representation and how it varies by job level. In short, the more senior the level, the higher percentage of the employees who self-identify as men. More here: https://lnkd.in/gsBEvNGT Today, let’s look at the same pattern but around the dimension of racial diversity by job level. ___________ Perhaps unsurprisingly (but unfortunately), a very similar pattern exists today with race as the one with gender. 𝗜𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁, 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝟵𝟱𝗸 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗮𝘃𝗲’𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗼𝗹 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗪𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹. For instance, 74% of P1s analyzed self-report as White or Asian whereas 88% of P6s and 92% of CXOs self-report as White or Asian. ___________ The next question thus becomes, why? What is the underlying cause of this pattern? It is likely a combination of one, some, or all of the following: [A] Promotion rate disparities between races [B] Hiring rate disparities between races, especially at the more senior levels [C] Turnover/attrition rate disparities between races as you advance on the career ladder We will take a look at all three of these hypotheses soon to best empirically identify the underlying cause today in the labor market of the increasing racial homogeneity at senior IC and Management levels. ___________ Methodology: Ethnicity classifications made using US census classification guidelines. Only incumbent datapoints in the USA with self-reported ethnicity data were included. This made the analysis sample size 95k incumbents. Also, as a general disclaimer, Pave’s dataset today skews largely towards technology companies. #pave #race #benchmarks