Prediction markets are a (poorly understood) multi-billion dollar industry.
This @LawofCodeFM episode is a multi-hour deep dive on prediction markets, from conclave betting in 15th century Rome to proposed rulemaking from the @CFTC earlier this month.
My goal: the internet's most comprehensive explainer on prediction markets.
I spent several months and over 100 hours on this podcast, and spoke to the world's leading experts on the legal layer of prediction markets: @robertjdenault, @WALLACHLEGAL, @SPSchropp, Sam Enzer, @iampaulgrewal, @BradBourque, @ThaniaCh, @passalacqua_mj, @JoshSterlingLaw, @_jamico, as well as @KolemanStrumpf, @mattkalish, with clips from prior conversations with @giancarloMKTS, @DustinGouker.
By the end of this episode, I promise you'll be in the top percentile for understanding prediction markets, regardless of your starting point.
(You just might want to listen twice. There's a lot here.)
0:00 Intro
1:40 16th century papal betting @KolemanStrumpf
11:13 Insider trading rules @robertjdenault
16:20 The Google insider case
27:38 Why prediction markets matter @giancarloMKTS
33:20 Election betting in America
44:50 Iowa Electronic Markets
52:11 Dodd-Frank, swaps and the Special Rule
54:23 Senator Lincoln on sports contracts
1:02:04 Parlays as swaps
1:07:38 CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction @ThaniaCh
1:13:45 Perspective on CFTC's NPRM @passalacqua_mj
1:21:10 Exceptions that swallow the rule @iampaulgrewal
1:33:40 How prediction markets actually work
1:42:20 Kalshi's fee structure
1:44:33 Cardi B and the resolution problem @DustinGouker
1:51:20 @Polymarket's decentralized resolution @_jamico
1:58:10 The Ninth Circuit case
2:14:04 CFTC's proposed rulemaking @BradBourque, @SPSchropp
2:25:21 @Kalshi's landmark 2024 win
2:29:20 PASPA, Murphy v. NCAA @WALLACHLEGAL
2:51:29 The case against banning prediction markets @robertjdenault
Nothing in this podcast is legal or investment advice. Thank you to the sponsors of this episode, @CahillGordon (@NYcryptolawyer), @HyperliquidPC and .
