Sibylla Bostoniensis

Meteorology Youtuber Ryan Hall Yall has just issued a severe weather warning alert that is not at all reflected in the weather forecasts from either NOAA or the textual forecast from the Canadian government, but which does match what is in Weather.com's forecast for southern Quebec and does match the thunderstorm outlook map at weather.qc.ca: severe, high-winds storms, possible golf-ball size hail, low but non-zero probability for tornadoes.

2026 July 13: Ryan Hall Y'all: "Something INSANE Is About To Happen...":

Transcript:

Tomorrow, northern New England faces a rare mid July severe weather outbreak that looks eerily like the 1995 derecho (!!!! - S.) [...] There's a severe weather setup taking shape tomorrow across northern New England that we almost never see up here. If you live up here, I need you to take this seriously because this is a level three out of five risk that covers Burlington, Vermont, Platsburg, New York, and it reaches deep into the northern woods of Maine.

And uh here's what makes this one weird, okay? The whole pattern is tilted 90° from what you'd expect. Instead of storms riding along the front from southwest to northeast, these storms are going to fire over the southern Quebec area Tuesday afternoon and spill over top of the ridge and slide down to the east right across the border. And it's going to be like a slip and slide pointed at New England.

Before they hit, it's going to be brutally hot out there. Burlington could tie its all-time July 14th record of 100° with a heat index past 100. That heat loads the atmosphere with storm fuel and uh it's going to be sitting right under a 110 knot jetream that's going to be screaming from the northwest.

The real danger window here is going to be from 6:00 p.m. to midnight on Tuesday, okay? And the storms are going to cross the border and they're going to cause all kinds of problems starting off as supercells.

And that's actually the scary phase because if you get supercells in this kind of environment, we're talking about golf ball size hail and potentially even a couple of strong tornadoes. There's a low probability that we see some tornadoes in the beginning stages of this storm system tomorrow.

So, if you live in a mobile home anywhere near the Canadian border, know exactly where you're sheltering before the sun goes down tonight. [Promotion for his tornado alert system]

Then later during the day and into the night, those individual storms are going to merge into one solid wall of water and wind. And it's going to sweep to the south and southeast.

And that's when the main threat is obviously going to flip over to 75 mph wind gusts, maybe even higher than that. Fast enough to snap pine trees and knock out power for thousands of people.

Down in Boston and southern New England, the worst of the storms are going to stay north of you, but you'll still bake in that unbearable heat. [...]

So again, this setup looks eerily similar to the uh infamous July 1995 Adirondack derecho just shifted a little bit further northeast this time. So if it verifies, uh a lot of New England is going to wake up Wednesday with a massive cleanup on their hands.

Here's Wikipedia on the The Ontario–Adirondacks Derecho of July 14 and 15:

After crossing the open waters of Lake Huron/Georgian Bay, the storm raced southeastward into central southern Ontario. Several brief tornadoes were reported. An F1 tornado struck the Balsam Lake Trailer Park near Kirkfield, flipping over vehicles, destroying several trailers and sending ten people to hospital with non life-threatening injuries. One trailer was thrown over 250 meters. Across the lake from the trailer park, straightline winds caused extensive damage in the cottage community of Long Point. Further east, near Peterborough, an F2 tornado hit Bridgenorth damaging or destroying 20 homes and a marina with winds estimated upward of 200 km/h (120 mp/h).

[...]

Many thousands of trees were blown down across the province severing power lines, blocking roadways, and damaging homes. One person was killed, and dozens of people were injured. Eight people trapped in a flipped houseboat in Pigeon Lake near Peterborough were rescued hours after the storm. Power was not restored to some affected areas for up to a week after the event. The derecho caused CAN$53 million in damage.

The storm entered New York state at around 4 A.M. The storm slammed into the Adirondacks felling 900,000 acres (3,600 km2) of forest. The value of the loss of timber was estimated at over $200 million (1995 dollars) ($306M in 2014 dollars)

The derecho passed through the Syracuse airport with a 76 mph wind gust. A parked Boeing 727 was blown into another plane. A 77 mph wind gust was recorded at Albany. It moved into New England a little after sunrise producing 70–90 mph wind gusts in several towns in Massachusetts. Fifty people were left homeless after the derecho blew the roof off an apartment building in Holyoke, Massachusetts. [...]

The Ontario–Adirondacks Derecho was [...] among the costliest thunderstorms in US/Canadian history. It caused $500 millions in damage.

Again, there's absolutely nothing about this risk in the NOAA weather alerts at all for the region, and weather.gc.ca has no weather alerts for it either, saying only "60 percent chance of showers in the evening with risk of a thunderstorm", despite the page for Quebec Thunderstorm Outlook Today looking like this:



While Weather.com reports in the forecast for Magog, Quebec:

Day
86°F
precip 65%
wind WSW 15 mph

Rain this morning with strong thunderstorms likely by evening. Damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado with some storms. High 86F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Night
67°F
precip 54%
wind WNW 10 mph

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong this evening, then skies turning partly cloudy after midnight. Damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado with some storms. Low 67F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.