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icon for Gemini 3.2 released by...?
Tech·AI

Gemini 3.2 released by...?

icon for Gemini 3.2 released by...?
Tech·AI

Gemini 3.2 released by...?

$556,856 Vol.

May 18, 2026
Polymarket

$556,856 Vol.

Polymarket

May 18

$2,819 Vol.

2%

May 19

$10,176 Vol.

93%

May 31

$105,946 Vol.

99%

May 22

$219,658 Vol.

99%

June 30

$52,735 Vol.

100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Per the rules, “Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-Lite, would qualify toward a ‘Yes’ resolution to this market.” Accordingly, qualifying models may include any decimalized variant of Gemini 3 after Gemini 3.1, provided the model otherwise satisfies this market’s rules. Qualifying releases of Gemini 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, or 3.9 would all count.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's Gemini 3.2 Flash has generated significant trader interest ahead of the company's I/O conference on May 19-20, 2026, following early-May leaks showing the model active in the iOS Gemini app and AI Studio without fanfare. Official changelogs confirm the recent general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, but insiders indicate Gemini 3.2 will focus on a lightweight variant delivering roughly 92% of GPT-5.5's coding and reasoning performance at one-fifteenth to one-twentieth the inference cost and sub-200-millisecond latencies. This efficiency-focused approach positions it against higher-priced competitors like Anthropic's Claude models, though no Pro-tier release appears imminent. Traders are watching for confirmed benchmarks or production API access at the event to clarify resolution criteria around official public rollout.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Per the rules, “Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-Lite, would qualify toward a ‘Yes’ resolution to this market.” Accordingly, qualifying models may include any decimalized variant of Gemini 3 after Gemini 3.1, provided the model otherwise satisfies this market’s rules. Qualifying releases of Gemini 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, or 3.9 would all count.
Volume
$556,856
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Per the rules, “Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-Lite, would qualify toward a ‘Yes’ resolution to this market.” Accordingly, qualifying models may include any decimalized variant of Gemini 3 after Gemini 3.1, provided the model otherwise satisfies this market’s rules. Qualifying releases of Gemini 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, or 3.9 would all count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Per the rules, “Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-Lite, would qualify toward a ‘Yes’ resolution to this market.” Accordingly, qualifying models may include any decimalized variant of Gemini 3 after Gemini 3.1, provided the model otherwise satisfies this market’s rules. Qualifying releases of Gemini 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, or 3.9 would all count.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's Gemini 3.2 Flash has generated significant trader interest ahead of the company's I/O conference on May 19-20, 2026, following early-May leaks showing the model active in the iOS Gemini app and AI Studio without fanfare. Official changelogs confirm the recent general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, but insiders indicate Gemini 3.2 will focus on a lightweight variant delivering roughly 92% of GPT-5.5's coding and reasoning performance at one-fifteenth to one-twentieth the inference cost and sub-200-millisecond latencies. This efficiency-focused approach positions it against higher-priced competitors like Anthropic's Claude models, though no Pro-tier release appears imminent. Traders are watching for confirmed benchmarks or production API access at the event to clarify resolution criteria around official public rollout.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Per the rules, “Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-Lite, would qualify toward a ‘Yes’ resolution to this market.” Accordingly, qualifying models may include any decimalized variant of Gemini 3 after Gemini 3.1, provided the model otherwise satisfies this market’s rules. Qualifying releases of Gemini 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, or 3.9 would all count.
Volume
$556,856
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Per the rules, “Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-Lite, would qualify toward a ‘Yes’ resolution to this market.” Accordingly, qualifying models may include any decimalized variant of Gemini 3 after Gemini 3.1, provided the model otherwise satisfies this market’s rules. Qualifying releases of Gemini 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, or 3.9 would all count.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Gemini 3.2 released by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 100%, followed by "May 31" at 99%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Gemini 3.2 released by...?" has generated $556.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Gemini 3.2 released by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Gemini 3.2 released by...?" is "June 30" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 99%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Gemini 3.2 released by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.