Contemporary demographic processes forcing increasing attention to the problems of relationships and dependencies between the different age groups. The ageing of the population in each society leads to changes in the contacts between young people, adults and the elderly. It is reasonable to undertake research on the concept of "solidarity of generations". Maintaining relationships without generational conflict requires actions in the field of social policy known as intergenerational policy. Aim of this article is to present some of its (...) models, which allow not only to analyze the changes in the various communities, but also to create recommendations for public intervention. Description will include activities at the international, national, regional and local levels. (shrink)

This study aims to design an agricultural digitalization policy model to improve agricultural performance in Indonesia, focusing on Sambas Regency, West Kalimantan. Utilizing the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP), the research analyzes key factors, actors, objectives, and strategies influencing agricultural digitalization. The findings reveal that farmers' characteristics and perceptions, along with the role of facilitators, regulations, and digital infrastructure, are crucial factors. The Ministry of Agriculture emerges as the most influential actor while increasing agricultural productivity and farmers' income are (...) identified as primary objectives. The development of integrated agricultural digitalization from upstream to downstream is prioritized as the key strategy, supported by government-provided big data, optimized extension worker roles, and the creation of digital markets for agricultural services and products. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers in formulating effective strategies to drive digital transformation in Indonesia's agricultural sector, emphasizing the need for a holistic, multi-stakeholder approach to realize the benefits of agricultural digitalization for farmers, businesses, and society at large. (shrink)

The current state of the world suggests we have some difficulty in developing effective policy. This paper demonstrates two methods for the objective analysis of logic models within policy documents. By comparing policy models, we will be better able to compare policies and so determine which policy is best. Our ability to develop effective policy is reflected across the social sciences where our ability to create effective theoretical models is being called into question. The broad (...) scope of this issue suggests a source as deep as our unconscious ways of thinking. Specifically, our reliance on modern and postmodern thinking has limited our ability to develop more effective policy, and more particularly, logic models. The move in some quarters toward “integral” thinking may provide insights that support the creation of more useful policy models. However, some versions of that thinking seem to be unwittingly mired in modern and postmodern thinking. This paper identifies how integral thought may be clarified, allowing us to advance beyond postmodern thinking. Usefully, this “neo-integral” form of thinking supports the creation of more mature policy models by encompassing greater complexity and a careful understanding of interrelationships that may be identified within the logic models that are commonly found in policy analyses. Neo-integral thinking is related to more complex forms of systems thinking and both are found in recent conversations within the nascent field of metatheory. And, to some extent, a logic model within a policy operates as a kind of theoretical model because both may be used to inform understanding and decision-making. Therefore, it seems reasonable to apply neo-integral thinking and metatheoretical methodologies to conduct critical comparisons of logic models. In the present paper, these methodologies are applied to critically compare two logic models. The structure of each model is analyzed to objectively determine its complexity and formal robustness. The complexity is determined by quantifying the concepts and connections within each model. The robustness of a model is a measure of its internal integrity, based on the ratio between the total number of aspects and the number of concatenated aspects. In this analysis, one policy model is found to have a robustness of 0.08, while another is found to have a robustness of 0.67. The more robust policy is expected to be much more effective in application. Implications for policy development and policy application are discussed. (shrink)

This article addresses the role of science and science advisory bodies in modeling practices for the support of policy-making procedures in the Netherlands in the field of health care. The authors show, based on a detailed investigation of a prestigious interdisciplinary modeling project in which an economic care model was developed for governmental use, that science advisory bodies are entangled with the policy actors they advise in what we call boundary configurations. Boundary configurations are strongly situated (...) interconnections between science advisory institutes and policy institutions that share a specific approach to problem definitions and methods and that are embedded in specific social, discursive, and material elements. Importantly, as the case study shows, such boundary configurations shape the kind of science, and related, the kind of social and political theories about the world, that is effectuated in modeling practices. In this case study, the boundary configuration in which economic experts and policy makers participated contributed to the articulation of health care in terms of a market-based policy program for the health care sector. (shrink)

Engaging stakeholders in policy making and supporting policy development with advanced information and communication technologies including policy simulation is currently high on the agenda of research. In order to involve stakeholders in providing their input to policy modeling via online means, simple techniques need to be employed such as scenario technique. Scenarios enable stakeholders to express their views in narrative text. At the other end of policy development, a frequently used approach to policy (...) modeling is agent-based simulation. So far, effective support to transform narrative text input to formal simulation statements is not widely available. In this paper, we present a novel approach to support the transformation of narrative texts via conceptual modeling into formal simulation models. The approach also stores provenance information which is conveyed via annotations of texts to the conceptual model and further on to the simulation model. This way, traceability of information is provided, which contributes to better understanding and transparency, and therewith enables stakeholders and policy modelers to return to the sources that informed the conceptual and simulation model. In this paper, we present the consistent conceptual description (CCD) as conceptual modeling approach to bridge the gap between narrative texts and formal policy models. The CCD meta-model with the underlying vocabulary for describing policy contexts is detailed. A case study introduces the application of the approach in the Open Collaboration for Policy Modeling project. (shrink)

Public policies are designed to have an impact on particular societies, yet policy-oriented computer models and simulations often focus more on articulating the policies to be applied than on realistically rendering the cultural dynamics of the target society. This approach can lead to policy assessments that ignore crucial social contextual factors. For example, by leaving out distinctive moral and normative dimensions of cultural contexts in artificial societies, estimations of downstream policy effectiveness fail to account for dynamics that (...) are fundamental in human life and central to many public policy challenges. In this paper, we supply evidence that incorporating morally salient dimensions of a culture is critically important for producing relevant and accurate evaluations of social policy when using multi-agent artificial intelligence models and simulations. (shrink)

(1996). Latvia in search of a social policy model. The European Legacy: Vol. 1, Fourth International Conference of the International Society for the study of European Ideas, pp. 652-658.

Abstract.Since the gene splicing debates of the 1980s, the public has been exposed to an ongoing sequence of genetic and reproductive technologies. Many issue areas have outcomes that lose track of people's inner values or engender opposing religious viewpoints defying final resolution. This essay relocates the discussion of what is an acceptable application from the individual to the societal level, examining technologies that stand to address large numbers of people and thus call for policy resolution, rather than individual fiat, (...) in their application. A major source of guidance is the “Genetic Frontiers” series of professional dialogues and conferences held by the National Conference for Community and Justice from 2002 to 2004. Genetic testing, human gene therapy, genetic engineering of plants and animals, and stem cell technology are examined. While differences in perspective on the beginning of life persist, a stepwise approach to the examination of genetic testing reveals areas of general agreement. Stewardship of life, human co‐creativity with the divine, and social justice help define the bounds of application of genetic engineering and therapy; compassionate care plays a major role in establishing stem cell policy. Active, sustained dialogue is a useful resource for enabling sharing of religious values and crystallization of policies. (shrink)

Models are used in a variety of arguments such as explanatory, critical, and policy arguments. However, there does not seem to be a framework within which to analyze their diverse argumentative uses. This article focuses on the argumentative uses of economic models and proposes a four-layered framework (from scientific model to policy argument) to analyze the role of such models as argumentative devices, and to make explicit the gap between model results and real-world policy claims. The case (...) in focus is the supply and demand model and its role in explanatory and policy arguments during the COVID-19 pandemic. (shrink)

Climate change presents us with a problem of intergenerational justice. While any costs associated with climate change mitigation measures will have to be borne by the world’s present generation, the main beneficiaries of mitigation measures will be future generations. This raises the question to what extent present generations have a responsibility to shoulder these costs. One influential approach for addressing this question is to appeal to neo-classical economic cost–benefit analyses and so-called economy-climate “integrated assessment models” to determine what course of (...) action a principle of intergenerational welfare maximization would require of us. I critically examine a range of problems for this approach. First, integrated assessment models face a problem of underdetermination and induction: They are very sensitive to a number of highly conjectural assumptions about economic responses to a temperature and climate regime, for which we have no empirical evidence. Second, they involve several simplifying assumptions which cannot be justified empirically. And third, some of the assumptions underlying the construction of economic models are intrinsically normative assumptions that reflect value judgments of the modeler. I conclude that, while integrated assessment models may play a useful role as “toy models,” their use as tools for policy optimization is highly problematic. (shrink)

There are presently two leading foreign policy decision-making paradigms in vogue. The first is based on the classical or rational model originally posited by von Neumann and Morgenstern to explain microeconomic decisions. The second is based on the cybernetic perspective whose groundwork was laid by Herbert Simon in his early research on bounded rationality. In this paper we introduce a third perspective — thepoliheuristic theory of decision-making — as an alternative to the rational actor and cybernetic paradigms in international (...) relations. This theory is drawn in large part from research on heuristics done in experimental cognitive psychology. According to the poliheuristic theory, policy makers use poly (many) heuristics while focusing on a very narrow range of options and dimensions when making decisions. Among them, the political dimension is noncompensatory. The paper also delineates the mathematical formulations of the three decision-making models. (shrink)

A question at the intersection of scientific modeling and public choice is how to deal with uncertainty about model predictions. This "high-level" uncertainty is necessarily value-laden, and thus must be treated as irreducibly subjective. Nevertheless, formal methods of uncertainty analysis should still be employed for the purpose of clarifying policy debates. I argue that such debates are best informed by models which integrate objective features with subjective ones. This integrated subjectivism is illustrated with a case study from the (...) literature on monetary policy. The paper concludes with some morals for the use of models in determining climate policy. (shrink)

A new approach to policy analysis is formulated within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. A policy is defined as a plan of action for a decision maker (DM) that specifies the DM’s intended action starting at every possible state in a graph model of a conflict. Given a profile of policies, a Policy Stable State (PSS) is a state that no DM moves away from (according to its policy), and such that no (...) DM would prefer to change its policy given the policies of the other DMs. The profile of policies associated to a PSS is called a Policy Equilibrium. Properties of PSSs are developed, and a refinement is suggested that restricts DMs to policies that are credible in that they are in the DM’s immediate interest. Relationships with existing stability definitions in the graph model for conflict resolution are then explored. (shrink)

Science-policy models guide the practice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other science-policy institutions. Such science-policy models are primarily about the general competence, responsibility and legitimate role of scientific experts, policymakers and other players at the science-policy interface. The central question of Part II is how well they help tackle the key challenge at the science-policy interface, i.e. help comply with the four general norms for expertise in policy (Part I)? The (...) results of the evaluation and refinement of the predominant science-policy models will both contribute to the envisaged framework for the IPCC assessments on a more general level, and serve as useful “lenses” for the more specific evaluation of the integrated economic assessments of the IPCC (Part III). This chapter introduces the decisionist, the technocratic, the pragmatic and the legitimisation models of the role of scientific expertise in policy; these four models are prevalent in practice. Section 4.1 explains core common characteristics of these prevalent models. The systematic analysis of the four models – particularly their philosophical assumptions on scientific knowledge – as potential tools to realise the general norms for expertise in policy follows in Sect. 4.2. Finally, Sect. 4.3 explains how the analysis and evaluation of these models can be used for the evaluation of the IPCC’s work. (shrink)

In the last decade, the UK Government has attempted to implement improved processes and procedures in modelling and analysis in response to the Laidlaw report of 2012 and the Macpherson review of 2013. The Laidlaw report was commissioned after failings during the Intercity West Coast Rail (ICWC) Franchise procurement exercise by the Department for Transport (DfT) that led to a legal challenge of the analytical models used within the exercise. The Macpherson review looked into the quality assurance of Government analytical (...) models in the context of the experience with the Intercity West Coast franchise competition. This paper examines what progress has been made in the 8 years since the Laidlaw report in model building and best practise in government and proposes several recommendations for ways forward. This paper also discusses the Lords Science and Technology Committees of June 2020 that analysed the failings in the modelling of COVID. Despite going on to influence policy, many of the same issues raised within the Laidlaw and Macpherson Reports were also present in the Lords Science and Technology Committee enquiry. We examine the technical and organisational challenges to progress in this area and make recommendations for a way forward. (shrink)

The current dominant paradigm of mental disorder is that psychopathology is a deviation from normal physiological functioning of the brain. This paradigm is closely allied to the identity theory of mind in philosophy, which holds that mental phenomena are identical with the physical state of the brain. The assumptions of the biological model have policy implications, regardless of the utility or ‘truth’ of the paradigm, which should be made explicit for the assessment of ethics in mental health policy (...) formulation. The nature of mental phenomena has been debated throughout history, without consensus. Several critiques of the biological model are offered to encourage enquiring scepticism. The policy implications discussed are political conservatism, broadened rationales for forced treatment, utility in managed care, and the use of medical necessity criteria to allocate treatment. (shrink)

As of the end of October 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has exceeded 45 million and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 1.1 million all over the world. Faced with the fatal pandemic, countries around the world have taken various prevention and control measures. One of the important issues in epidemic prevention and control is the assessment of the prevention and control effectiveness. Changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases can reflect the (...) impact of policies in certain regions. In this paper, a smooth transition autoregressive model is applied to investigate the intrinsic changes during the epidemic in certain countries and regions. In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence of the epidemic control measures, the sequence is fitted to the STAR model; then, comparisons between the dates of transition points and those of releasing certain policies are applied. Our model well fits the data. Moreover, the nonlinear smooth function within the STAR model reveals that the implementation of prevention and control policies is effective in some regions with different speeds. However, the ineffectiveness is also revealed and the threat of a second wave had already emerged. (shrink)

Is realism in political theory compatible with utopianism? This article shows that it is, by reconstructing a highly restrictive realist approach to political theory for guiding legislation and public policy, drawn from the work of Adam Smith, and showing how it can accommodate Piketty’s utopian proposal for a global tax on capital. This shows not only that realism and utopianism are compatible; but how realist and utopian political theory can be carried out in concrete cases. This moves debates to (...) more interesting questions of which forms of utopianism are permissible within which forms of realism; contributes to moving the contemporary realism debates from a Methodenstreit to questions of how it can and ought to be done; and contributes to an important contemporary debate about the permissibility of utopian proposals for political and economic reform in general and Piketty’s proposed global tax on capital in particular. (shrink)

This chapter examines two approaches to climate policy: expected utility calculations and a precautionary approach. The former provides the framework for attempts to calculate the social cost of carbon. The latter approach has provided the guiding principle for the United Nations Conference of Parties from the 1992 Rio Declaration to the Paris Agreement. The chapter argues that the deep uncertainties concerning the climate system and climate damages make the exercise of trying to calculate a well-supported value for the SCC (...) impossible. Moreover, cost-benefit analyses are blind to important moral dimensions of the climate problem. Yet it is an open question to what extent an alternative, precautionary approach can result in specific policy recommendations such as the temperature targets of the Paris agreement. (shrink)

The moral ideology of banking and insurance employees in Spain was examined along with supervisor role modeling and ethics-related policies and procedures for their association with ethical behavioral intent. In addition to main effects, we found evidence supporting that the person–situation interactionist perspective in supervisor role modeling had a stronger positive relationship with ethical intention among employees with relativist moral ideology. Also as hypothesized, formal ethical polices and procedures were positively related to ethical intention among those with universal (...) beliefs, but the relationship was much weaker among relativists. Thus, firms wishing to optimally promote ethical attitudes and behavior must tailor their organization-based initiatives to the individual characteristics of their employees. (shrink)

This chapter examines the development of a model conflict of interest (COI) policy for the Université de Montréal, designed in response to increasing institutional and regulatory pressure on universities to manage conflicts of interest more effectively. Drawing on prior analyses of Canadian university COI policies and on the specific context of a large research-intensive institution, the chapter argues that effective COI governance requires more than formal compliance. It requires a policy framework that is conceptually clear, practically usable, and (...) supported by procedures, educational tools, and governance structures. The chapter explains the reasoning behind the proposed policy’s main features: a broad definition of COI that includes financial, institutional, ideological, political, and relational interests; a preamble that frames COI as manageable rather than inherently blameworthy; and a principled structure emphasizing responsibilities, transparency, shared responsibility, decentralized management, solidarity in evaluation, reputation protection, prevention, and education. Particular attention is given to the limits of disclosure as a stand-alone mechanism and to the need for local procedures alongside central oversight. Although the draft policy was not formally adopted, the chapter shows how its underlying approach informed subsequent directives, forms, training, and awareness-raising initiatives. It offers a practical and adaptable model for other universities seeking to strengthen COI governance while fostering institutional culture change. (shrink)

Policymakers increasingly draw on scientific methods, including simulation modeling, to justify their decisions. For these purposes, scientists and policymakers face an extensive choice of modeling strategies. Discussing the example of smallpox epidemiology, this paper distinguishes three types of strategies: Massive Simulation Models (MSMs), Abstract Simulation Models (ASMs) and Macro Equation Models (MEMs). By analyzing some of the main smallpox epidemic models proposed in the last 20 years, it discusses how to justify strategy choice with reference to the core (...) characteristics of these respective strategies. First, I argue that MEMs often suffice for policy purposes, and need to be replaced only if they are insufficiently robust. Such robustness results, however, only requires the use of ASMs, not MSMs. Second, I argue that although MSMs have larger potentials than ASMs in various dimensions, they are also more likely to fail—and that in many cases, this probability of failing outweighs their higher potential. In particular, these dimensions include the representation of the relevant target, the accurate measurement of the relevant parameters, the number of parameters included, the number of mechanisms modeled simultaneously, and the ways of dealing with structural uncertainty. While this in no way excludes the prospect that some MSMs provide good justifications for policy decisions, my arguments caution against a general preference for MSMs over ASMs for policy decision purposes in general and vaccination problems in particular. (shrink)

The ArgumentThis paper examines the interaction between economic models and policy advice through a case study of the U.K. government's Panel of Independent Forecasters. The Panel, which met for the first time in February 1993, was part of the government's response to the policy vacuum created by its departure from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The paper focuses on the policy recommendations made by the Panel and their foundation in economic models. It is argued that, because of (...) their ambiguity, economic models do not provide an “objective” basis for policy making. Rather, they provide a level epistemological basis for debating the various social, political, and moral theories that can be used to frame economic policy. The paper concludes that although economic models often serve to depoliticize economic issues, they also have the potential to do exactly the opposite — namely, repoliticize them by connecting economics to wider social and moral debates. (shrink)

The paper aims to develop a theoretical reflection on existing knowledge in public policy and its implementation in the nineties. This is a documental research design of bibliographical nature. The results reveal that the body of knowledge in public policy has been under the domain of rational choice theory and the assumptions of the neoclassical school. I conclude that, in the context of an alternative model to the neoliberal one, one need a different theoretical tool for alternative public (...) policy that consider social rationality moving away from a deterministic and technical policy. Este trabajo tiene como propósito desarrollar una reflexión teórica al conocimiento existente en materia de política pública y de su implementación en la década de los noventa. Esta es una investigación documental con un tipo de diseño de carácter bibliográfico. Los resultados revelan que el cuerpo de conocimientos en materia de política pública, ha estado bajo el dominio de la Teoría de la Elección Racional y de los supuestos de la Escuela Neoclásica. Se concluye que, en el marco de un modelo alternativo al neoliberal, se necesita un instrumental teórico diferente para una política pública alternativa. Esto pasa por considerar una racionalidad social que se aleje de una concepción determinista y técnica de la política. (shrink)

There are presently two leading foreign policy decision-making paradigms in vogue. The first is based on the classical or rational model originally posited by von Neumann and Morgenstern to explain microeconomic decisions. The second is based on the cybernetic perspective whose groundwork was laid by Herbert Simon in his early research on bounded rationality. In this paper we introduce a third perspective -- the poliheuristic theory of decision-making -- as an alternative to the rational actor and cybernetic paradigms in (...) international relations. This theory is drawn in large part from research on heuristics done in experimental cognitive psychology. According to the poliheuristic theory, policy makers use poly (many) heuristics while focusing on a very narrow range of options and dimensions when making decisions. Among them, the political dimension is noncompensatory. The paper also delineates the mathematical formulations of the three decision-making models. (shrink)

In the last decades of the XX century the world community precisely realized the huge danger of the ecological situation which had been developed on our planet under influence of negative technogenic and other anthropogenous factors. Very complex there were ecological conditions in the territory of the former USSR, including Central Asian region, in particular Uzbekistan, which had experienced all the toughness of the former colonial regime. Understanding the consequences of the ecological catastrophe in the region helps to model sociopolitical (...) and economic activities in the field of preservation of the environment, to realize the fact, that in the system of interstate and interethnic relations the ecological policy should have a priority direction, and its integration, in general,is a modern globalization of international sociopolitical, economic and other relations. Thus, necessity of all-round development of coordination and integration of the ecological policies of the all States of our region, and also near and far abroad. Main principles of interstate ecological relations have been fixed in the declaration of Rio de Janeiro (1992) where it is underlined that “close cooperation and mutual aid of the countries in economic, political, ecological andcultural fields” is necessary, demanding modeling of nature protection actions on a global scale. Principles of integration of the ecological policy which are carried out by the States of the Central Asia, correspond to the regulations of Conference of Rio de Janeiro and equitable to the interests of all people living both inside and outside the region. (shrink)

We understand regulatory policy problems against the backdrop of existing implementations of a regulatory framework. There are argument schemes for proposing a policy and for criticising a proposal, rooted in a shared understanding that there is an existing regulatory framework which is implemented in social structures in society, yet has problems. The problems with the existing implementations may be attributed either to those implementations or to the constraints imposed by the regulatory framework. In this paper we propose that (...) calls for change of regulatory policy, and case-based and statistical evidence produced in support of policy proposals, are based in model-based problem solving activities. This perspective suggests schemes for a good argument pro or con a policy proposal, while avoiding the problem of backing up claims and evidence on the policy level with a conjectural deep model of the policy domain. (shrink)

Policies to combat climate change should be supported by evidence regarding their effectiveness. But what kind of evidence is that? And what tools should one use to gather such evidence? Many argue that randomized controlled trials are the gold standard when it comes to evaluating the effects of policies. As a result, there has been a push for climate change policies to be evaluated using RCTs. We argue that this push is misguided. After explaining why RCTs are thought to be (...) the gold standard, we use examples of mitigation and adaptation policies to show that RCTs provide, at best, one piece of the evidential puzzle one needs to assemble for well-supported decisions regarding climate change policies. (shrink)

This study aims to conceptualize “Pyramid-hierarchy” model of the educational policy discourse system in China. Education discourse system is the external education expression form of ideological and theoretical system and knowledge system. Constructing the discourse system of educational policy with Chinese characteristics is a system consisting of a series of internal logical relations, including seven levels of discourse foundation, discourse core, discourse mode, discourse attitude, discourse transmission and discourse innovation. The educational policy discourse system with Chinese characteristics (...) draws lessons from several important elements in the meaning of community, namely mutual emotion, mutual dependence, and common action. (shrink)

Van Lohuizen’s ideal of unity, must above all be seen as a challenge to attain the necessary integration of planning, research, and design to meet the requirements of a changing society. Though Van Lohuizen's ideas were influenced strongly by the rational and technical principles of the CIAM, he saw technology as a means to an end in an approach that is primarily based on humans and culture. In the ideas of Van Lohuizen, different dimensions can be traced. New developments in (...) these dimensions are discussed in the article. There is no lack of innovative ideas and methods. Nearly all the ideas and methods discussed were developed in the forties, fifties, or sixties. On the basis of the incubation period required for introduction on a wider scale, it is now time for them to find greater favor with society. Following the years of a no-nonsense policy, it seems that in many fields there is a new need for a wider, more qualitative approach. (shrink)

Applied general equilibrium models have received considerable attention and scrutiny in the public debate over the North American Free Trade Agreement. This collection brings together the leading AGE models that have been constructed to analyse NAFTA. A variety of approaches to modelling trade liberalization are taken in these studies, including multi-country and multi-sectoral models, models that focus on institutional features of particular sectors affecting multinational firms and rules of origin, and models with some inter-temporal structure. Further, by constructing stylized models, (...) theoretical linkages have been identified that drive numerical results in the larger AGE models. The volume also assesses what can be learned about the likely economic effects of NAFTA from the collection of studies taken as a whole. Areas in need of further study have been highlighted. (shrink)

In this paper I argue that the appropriate analogy for “understanding what makes simulation results reliable” in global climate modeling is not with scientific experimentation or measurement, but—at least in the case of the use of global climate models for policy development—with the applications of science in applied design problems. The prospects for using this analogy to argue for the quantitative reliability of GCMs are assessed and compared with other potential strategies.

Companies in the world today understand that keeping users in touch is essential to enhancing their trust. The primary objective of this study was to determine the intention-based critical determinants of E-commerce utilization in China from the end users’ perspective. We developed a framework that identifies the factors that influence E-commerce utilization in China. Besides, we introduced observational research conducted in a real-world E-commerce sense. Results are based on a sample of 400 respondents by employing a comprehensive questionnaire survey. The (...) structural equation modeling and the partial least squares regression approach was used to analyze the data. Study results show that perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, reputation, trust in vendors, and purchase frequency significantly influence consumers’ intention to use E-commerce systems. Research outcomes emphasize transforming social norms, raising consumers’ awareness, redesigning policy frameworks, and highlighting the paybacks that E-commerce offers through integrative and consistent efforts. (shrink)

The study explores the future of AI-driven media and info-communication as envisioned by experts from all world regions, defining relevant terminology and expectations for 2050. Participants engaged in a 4-week series of surveys, questioning their definitions and projections about AI for the field of media and communication. Their expectations predict universal access to democratically available, automated, personalized and unbiased information determined by trusted narratives, recolonization of information technology and the demystification of the media process. These experts, as technology ambassadors, advocate (...) AI-to-AI solutions to mitigate technology-driven misuse and misinformation. The optimistic scenarios shift responsibility to future generations, relying on AI-driven solutions and finding inspiration in nature. Their present-based forecasts could be construed as being indicative of professional near-sightedness and cognitive dissonance. Visualizing our findings into a Glasses Model of AI Trust, the study contributes to key debates regarding AI policy, developmental trajectories, and academic research in media and info-communication fields. (shrink)

A sequel to Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, this new volume presents the technical aspects of the Global Trade Analysis Program's global dynamic framework and its applications within important global policy issues. The book covers a diverse set of topics including trade reform, growth, investment, technology, demographic change and the environment. Environmental issues are particularly well-suited for analysis with GDyn, and this volume covers its uses with climate change, resource use and technological progress in agriculture. Other applications (...) presented in the book focus on integration issues such as rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and photo-sanitary regulations, streamlining of customs procedures, and demographic change and migration. (shrink)

Four models are outlined for describing and analysing the role of teachers in the formulation of educational policy and the resulting processes of change. The model of teachers as partners in education policy making draws on a pluralist view of political processes and an assumption of a degree of autonomy for teachers and schools. A model of teachers as implementers of change draws a sharp distinction between the processes of policy making and policy execution and excludes (...) teachers from an involvement in the former. A model of teachers as resisting change has been put forward both by those most opposed to and those most supportive of current educational policy developments. Finally, a model of teachers as policy makers in practice is proposed to describe the way in which the reality of teaching situations can lead to the independent actions of individual teachers having systematic policy effects. The applicability of these models is considered in the context of contemporary educational changes drawing on empirical research evidence, in particular that of the PACE study of the implementation of the National Curriculum at KS1 and KS2. (shrink)

The purpose of the paper is to use analytical method and optimization tool to suggest a vaccination program intensity for a basic SIR epidemic model with limited resources for vaccination. We show that there are two different scenarios for optimal vaccination strategies, and obtain analytical solutions for the optimal control problem that minimizes the total cost of disease under the assumption of daily vaccine supply being limited. These solutions and their corresponding optimal control policies are derived explicitly in terms of (...) initial conditions, model parameters and resources for vaccination. With sufficient resources, the optimal control strategy is the normal Bang–Bang control. However, with limited resources, the optimal control strategy requires to switch to time-variant vaccination. (shrink)