South Korea’s population is set to shrink: what would it take to stop the decline?
How much would fertility rates, life expectancy, or migration rates need to change to stop the population from shrinking?
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Yesterday
Data Insight
In Tajikistan, remittances — the money sent or brought back by migrants — amounted to 48% of GDP in 2024. The chart places this figure in context by comparing it with other countries with data for the same year.
Nicaragua and Honduras receive remittances worth around a quarter of their GDP — high by global standards, but still far below Tajikistan's level.
Remittances here include two types of flows: money migrants abroad send home to their families, and money cross-border workers bring home from short-term jobs abroad.
Both of these flows play a role in Tajikistan, where most remittances come from labor migrants in Russia. In addition to the roughly 400,000 Tajiks settled there, hundreds of thousands more cross the border for seasonal and short-term work.
According to a report from the International Organization for Migration, about 1.2 million Tajiks were in Russia in mid-2024, which is more than a tenth of Tajikistan's total population.
The World Bank's latest Tajikistan Economic Update says that much of the country's recent rapid economic growth (above 8% since 2021) was supported by these remittance inflows.
May 18
Article
How much would fertility rates, life expectancy, or migration rates need to change to stop the population from shrinking?
May 18
Article
We created an interactive tool that lets you test how changes in fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration rates will change future populations.
May 16
Data Insight
We’ll often see headlines quoting how many gigawatts of new solar farms or coal plants China is building. But it’s hard to get a meaningful sense of scale for how electricity generation in China is changing.
The chart puts it in perspective.
In 2025 alone, China’s electricity generation increased by almost 500 terawatt-hours (TWh). This is compared here to the total amount of electricity that whole countries generate each year.
Germany generates almost exactly that amount. That means China effectively added a Germany-sized grid to its electricity system in just one year.
What’s also quite staggering is that almost all of this new generation came from solar and wind. China generated 340 TWh more electricity from solar than the year before.
That’s more than our two home countries, the UK and Spain, generate from all sources each year.
Low-carbon sources grew so much that coal power in China actually fell slightly.
One of the most widely cited sources to help answer these questions is the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook.
The report harmonizes national data, allowing cross-country comparisons and a global perspective. The IMF also adds its own near-term projections.
In its latest release, the IMF projected global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 — a downgrade from earlier this year.
The revision falls almost entirely on emerging markets and developing economies. Forecasts for advanced economies are largely unchanged.
Keep in mind that these forecasts are revised at each release, sometimes substantially.
I recently updated our chart with the IMF’s latest release; the next one is expected in October.
May 14
Data Insight
Japan closed down most of its nuclear plants after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in 2011, and nuclear production dropped dramatically.
You can see this in the chart above, which shows Japan's electricity mix since 1985. It’s based on data from the Energy Institute.
Fossil fuel plants — notably coal and gas — were ramped up to keep the lights on. The first nuclear reactors only came back online in 2015, under stricter rules from a new safety regulator created after the disaster.
As of early 2026, 15 reactors are running — out of 54 before Fukushima — and nuclear's share of electricity is still only around a third of its pre-2011 level.
The COVID-19 pandemic was the worst shock the commercial airline industry has ever faced. In 2020, global passenger traffic collapsed almost overnight.
How much has the industry recovered since?
Passenger traffic was back above its pre-pandemic peak by 2024, as you can see in the chart.
The share of available seats filled by paying passengers has also fully recovered, and now sits slightly above its 2019 level.
I recently updated this data, which comes from the International Civil Aviation Organization, compiled and published by Airlines for America.
In 2025, the world was around 1.4 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times. But temperatures haven’t increased linearly; there have been spikes and dips along the way.
Many of these spikes and dips are caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle caused by changes in wind patterns and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that affects global temperatures and climate.
There are two key phases of the ENSO cycle: La Niña, which causes cooler global temperatures, and El Niño, which brings warmer conditions.
The world cycles between El Niño and La Niña phases every two to seven years. There are also “neutral” periods between these phases where the world is not in either extreme.
As you can see in the chart, global temperatures during recent La Niña years were hotter than El Niño years just a few decades before. “Cool” years today are hotter than “warm” years not too long ago.
May 12
Data Insight
Crop yields across Africa have lagged far behind the rest of the world — the regional average is around 2.5 times lower than the global average.
But some countries in the region show that yields can grow much faster. Ghana is one example. In the chart, you can see its cereal yields compared to the average for Africa as a whole.
Several government programs contributed to this growth.
In 2008, the Ghanaian government launched a fertilizer subsidy program; it had some impact on yields but was relatively modest.
The largest shift came from the introduction of the Planting for Food and Jobs program in 2017, which dedicated large public funds to distributing improved seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs to farmers.
The data shown is based on nationally reported statistics, and some researchers question the exact size of the reported gains.
But the result that yields have gone up looks robust: independent modeled assessments estimate that maize and rice production are over 40% higher than they would have been without the program.
May 11
Article
What can countries with high stunting rates today learn from Japan’s experience of going from 70% to 5%?
May 9
Data Insight
In the late 20th century, a handful of countries — led by Brazil and the United States — turned to liquid biofuels to reduce their dependence on foreign oil markets, producing transport fuels from cheap crops instead.
In the early 2000s, interest in biofuels ramped up sharply, and not just in the Americas. They came to be seen as a leading method to decarbonize road transport. This was because today’s alternative to the combustion engine, the electric car, was still far too expensive.
Over the last two decades, global liquid biofuel production has grown sevenfold, as the chart shows.
Electric vehicles are now far cheaper and, in some places, cost-competitive with petrol cars, so biofuels are no longer seen as the central answer to low-carbon transport.
Yet, the world produces more of them than ever, and this is expected to grow over the coming decade, largely due to fuel standards and national policies that have promoted them.
May 7
Data Insight
Around 1.3 million people die from road injuries across the world every year. That includes the deaths of drivers, passengers, and pedestrians.
That’s around 2.4% of deaths from all causes.
As the chart shows, this death toll has been similar for decades, in the range of 1.25 to 1.35 million deaths each year.
However, with a larger global population and many more cars on the road, this means the death rate from road injuries — the number of deaths per 100,000 people — has fallen.
How much are different countries automating their manufacturing industries?
One way to compare this is to look at the number of robots per 1,000 manufacturing employees. You can see this in the chart, which shows the large differences between countries.
South Korea stands out by a large margin, with more than 120 robots for every 1,000 manufacturing workers — that’s more than one robot for every 10 workers.
This data comes from the International Federation of Robotics. I recently updated our chart with their latest release.
May 5
Data Insight
Solar and wind energy have grown quickly in recent years, but global electricity demand has grown faster. So while their share of electricity generation kept rising, it wasn't enough to push fossil fuels into absolute decline.
But in 2025, that changed. According to Ember's Global Electricity Review, low-carbon electricity sources grew faster than demand, pushing some fossil fuels out of the mix.
Global electricity generation increased by around 850 terawatt-hours (TWh) from 2024 to 2025. As you can see in the chart, solar and wind accounted for nearly all of this growth. While the world still burned slightly more gas, this was more than offset by a decline in coal and oil.
To reduce carbon emissions, fossil fuel use needs to keep falling in absolute terms — not just in the power sector but also in other energy and industrial sectors.
May 2
Data Insight
In 2018, my colleague Max Roser wrote an article titled “The Internet’s history has just begun”. His point was that while the Internet had already changed the world, large changes lay ahead because billions of people weren’t using it yet.
In this chart, I revisit that observation using more recent data from India, the world’s most populous country.
When Max wrote his article, roughly one in five people in India were online. The chart shows that since then, adoption has grown much faster than in the decades before. Today, more than 70% of India’s population is online — close to the global average.
When you look at related trends in the adoption of communication technologies, you see that much of the sudden acceleration in growth after 2018 was driven by mobile phones.
Mobile phone subscriptions in India took off in the early 2000s and had already reached 75 per 100 people by 2015. Internet access accelerated through its mobile networks, which were made affordable by new technologies and market competition — including a major market disruption, which started in 2016 when a new low-cost entrant drove down prices.
Who Americans spend their time with changes a lot over the course of their lives.
In their teens, Americans spend a lot of time with friends and family.
In their 20s, time with friends and family starts to drop off. Instead, Americans begin to spend more time with partners and children.
Throughout their 30s, 40s, and 50s, Americans spend much of their time with coworkers.
As they get older, Americans spend more time alone, but surveys show this doesn’t necessarily mean they’re lonely.
This data comes from the American Time Use Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. I recently updated our charts with the latest data release.
April 30
Data Insight
Teenage pregnancy rates have fallen across all regions in the last few decades.
The chart shows the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 since 2000, based on data compiled by the United Nations.
Globally, rates have fallen by over one-third. This decline has been even more dramatic in some regions. For example, rates have fallen by over three-quarters in Central and South Asia.
Birth rates have also fallen among adolescents aged 10 to 14 years old, where health concerns for pregnancy in such young girls are even greater.
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April 28
Data Insight
One way to measure income inequality is to look at the share of all income that goes to the top income earners. The chart plots this for all seven South American countries with comparable 2022 pre-tax income estimates in the World Inequality Database.
The difference between the left and right bars is which earners they cover: the richest 10% on the left, the richest 0.1% on the right.
Looking at the left-hand bars, Colombia ranks top. It has the highest share going to the richest 10%, followed by Chile, Brazil, and Peru — in these four countries, the top 10% share earns more than half of all income. This is high relative to other countries around the world.
But looking at the dark blue bars on the right, the rankings change. Peru’s richest 0.1% receive about 22% of income, the highest in the region by far, and actually the highest in the world that year.
This chart shows just two metrics, but you would also get different pictures if you looked at Gini coefficients or the distribution of wealth instead.
So, what is the most unequal country in South America? It depends on what metric you look at. This is a region with high inequalities, but different indicators will tell you different stories depending on which part of the distribution you examine, and how incomes are measured.
April 25
Data Insight
Most people in the world would think very little before flicking on the lights, charging a mobile phone or turning on a laptop to read this.
But that’s a very different reality from the almost 700 million people in the world who have no access to electricity. While this number is large, it has halved this century, falling from 1.35 billion to 675 million. You can see this in the chart.
However, this progress has been far from even. The number has fallen across all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa, where it has increased.
That doesn’t mean no progress has been made: the share of people in Sub-Saharan Africa with electricity has doubled, rising from 26% to 53%. But population growth has outpaced this expansion, meaning the number of people without electricity has still risen.
Hannah Ritchie, our Deputy Editor and Science Outreach Lead, has won the 2026 Unwin Award!
The award recognizes “non-fiction writers in the earlier stages of their careers as authors, whose work is considered to have made a significant contribution to the world.”
It’s awarded for an author’s overall body of work. Hannah has written two books:
The award’s judging panel praised Not the End of the World as “a well-written and revealing book and for its optimistic and data-grounded approach which gives readers hope for the future of the planet.”
The award comes with a £10,000 prize, which Hannah decided to donate to the Against Malaria Foundation.
Congratulations, Hannah!