Robin Brooks (@robin_j

Robin Brooks

42.5K posts

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst, previously Chief Economist @IIF and Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs. Opinions are my own. Email: [email protected].

Washington, DC

Joined July 2017

Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Nov 26, 2023
German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that all this stuff is heading to Russia. It's not like Kyrgyzstan is suddenly in a massive boom. Germany has to stop this...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
May 25, 2023
Brazil is on track to become the Switzerland of Latin America. A huge trade surplus is emerging, unlike any other country in the region. This is going to give Brazil external stability and a strong currency unlike the rest of Latin America. Brazil will be the region's anchor...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Apr 7, 2025
China has begun to devalue. Moves are still small, but this is clearly a signal to Washington. After all, the Dollar has been falling, so - if anything - the Yuan should be rising against the Dollar to remain stable in trade-weighted terms. But it's falling and that's a signal...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Mar 8, 2025
Germany can inflict huge damage on Russia's war economy today at no cost. It just has to shut down Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers in the Baltic. That will cause Urals oil price to fall, sending Russia into deep crisis. No debt or fiscal stimulus needed. Just courage...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Sep 4, 2024
New all-time high for Italy's exports to Kyrgyzstan in May 2024. This puts Italy's exports 2200% above where they were before Russia invaded Ukraine. You don't have to be a genius to know this stuff is going to Russia. Two years of this nonsense and the EU just looks away...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Aug 23, 2025
The EU "Wall of Shame"
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Jun 3, 2023
Putin's worst nightmare isn't German tanks in Ukraine. It isn't the G7 cap, which has been undercut by Greek shipping oligarchs who successfully lobbied for a high $60 cap. Putin's worst nightmare is this chart. Oil prices keep falling despite repeated OPEC+ production cuts...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Nov 28, 2022
Oil prices are tumbling. The G7 should ignore lobbying from Greece, Malta & Cyprus for a high and ineffectual cap of $60-70. Now is the time to hit Putin where it hurts, as weak demand means Russian production cuts won't do much. A cap of $30 sends Russia into financial crisis...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Nov 2, 2025
South Korea's exports to tiny Kyrgyzstan just reached half a billion Dollars in one month. This stuff is obviously not headed to Kyrgyzstan but going to Russia. The West is guilty of a collective failure on Ukraine: chasing short term profits instead of shutting down autocrats...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Aug 30, 2022
Brazil has come out of COVID in far better shape than most emerging markets, with a trade balance that has vaulted into a big surplus (red). That's the basic reason why our fair value has remained at $/BRL 4.50 for the last two years. Brazil's Real remains 10 percent undervalued.
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Dec 2, 2023
German exports of cars and parts (blue) are up 5500% to Kyrgyzstan (top left), 720% to Kazakhstan (bottom left), 450% to Armenia (top right) and 340% to Georgia (bottom left). All this stuff is headed to Moscow where Putin's cronies like their G-Wagons. Germany must stop this...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Jun 4, 2023
Oh. My. God. We've flagged Brazil's rising trade surpluses for a while. These will eventually transform Brazil into a current account surplus country. May '23 is another monster surplus. There is no other country on the planet that has undergone quite such a transformation...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Mar 25, 2025
Since 2017, Turkish Lira has fallen 91% against the Dollar. Turkey should be an EM superpower, but under Erdogan it is only one currency crisis after another, hyperinflation and volatility. The idea that Erdogan provides stability is an illusion. He provides the opposite...
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
Dec 17, 2024
Brazil's Real is absurdly undervalued. But it's also true that the current government has no clue how to talk to markets and almost celebrates that fact. If you run big deficits and pressure BACEN to keep yields low, you get a currency crisis. Turkey demonstrated this in 2021...