ionelv: (Default)
Aziz Huq (a U of Chicago constitutional scholar) has a sobering Atlantic article on the recent US evolution towards a dual state, a term coined by Ernst Fraenkel between 1938 and 1941 from his experiences living in Nazi Germany as a Jewish lawyer (who served in the German Army on the Eastern front during WWI).

Excerpts from the article:

Title: AMERICA IS WATCHING THE RISE OF A DUAL STATE

Subtitle: For most people, the courts will continue to operate as usual—until they don’t.

As Fraenkel explained it, a lawless dictatorship does not arise simply by snuffing out the ordinary legal system of rules, procedures, and precedents. To the contrary, that system—which he called the “normative state”—remains in place while dictatorial power spreads across society. What happens, Fraenkel explained, is insidious. Rather than completely eliminating the normative state, the Nazi regime slowly created a parallel zone in which “unlimited arbitrariness and violence unchecked by any legal guarantees” reigned freely. In this domain, which Fraenkel called the “prerogative state,” ordinary law didn’t apply.

The key here is that this prerogative state does not immediately and completely overrun the normative state. Rather, Fraenkel argued, dictatorships create a lawless zone that runs alongside the normative state. The two states cohabit uneasily and unstably. On any given day, people or cases could be jerked out of the normative state and into the prerogative one.

What the Trump administration and its allies are trying to build now, however, is not. The list of measures purpose-built to cleave off a domain in which the law does not apply grows by the day: the pardons that bless and invite insurrectionary violence; the purges of career lawyers at the Justice Department and in the Southern District of New York, inspectors general across the government, and senior FBI agents; the attorney general’s command that lawyers obey the president over their own understanding of the Constitution; the appointment of people such as Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, who seem to view their loyalty to the president as more compelling than their constitutional oath; the president’s declaration that he and the attorney general are the sole authoritative interpreters of federal law for the executive branch; the transformation of ordinary spending responsibilities into discretionary tools to punish partisan foes; the stripping of security clearances from perceived enemies and opponents; the threat of criminal prosecutions for speech deemed unfavorable by the president; and the verbal attacks on judges for enforcing the law.

For that reason, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Trump’s lawyers—despite running roughshod over Congress, the states, the press, and the civil service—were somewhat slower to defy the federal courts, and have fast-tracked cases to the Supreme Court, seeking a judicial imprimatur for novel presidential powers. The courts, unlike the legislature, remain useful to an autocrat in a dual state.
Building a dual state need not end in genocide: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore have followed the same model of the dual state that Fraenkel described, though neither has undertaken a mass-killing operation as the Nazis did. Their deepest similarity, rather, is that both are intolerant of political dissent and leave the overwhelming majority of citizens alone. The peril of the dual state lies precisely in this capacity for targeted suppression. Most people can ignore the construction of the prerogative state simply because it does not touch their lives. They can turn away while dissidents and scapegoats lose their political liberty. But once the prerogative state is built, as Fraenkel’s writing and experience suggest, it can swallow anyone.

ionelv: (Default)
It just dawned on me that the current closing of the Strait of Hormuz is repeating history in almost comical fashion as the 1967-1975 Suez closing is a perfect replica from which the world apparently learned jack shit. There are also the glaring facts that both closings were unilaterally triggered by Israel military action and that the negative consequences were spread globally.

It is actually tragicofarcical (i.e. reality TV-style theatre at historical and global scale, a grotesque mix of Greek tragedy, Shakespearean comedy, Victorian era melodrama and post-WW2 absurdist theatre) how the world economy is wagged by its Middle Eastern tail so often and so vigorously since oil was discovered there and since the whole region was carved up and mismanaged since.
ionelv: (Default)
Instances that US has exerted great influence on Europe:
1. 1870-1913 Grain Invasion has triggered great upheavals in Europe (e.g. 1907 Peasant Revolt in Romania)
2. 1914-1918: WWI involvement and seeds for WWII when Wilson acquiesced the French demands for German reparations (which were never honoured but were used as casus belli by Hitler).
3. 1920-1938: Major US Corporations contributions to rebuilding and arming Nazi Germany and Nazi propaganda was modelled after US/UK propaganda (which spread throughout Europe as well (eg. Legionarism in Romania)
4. 1938-1946: WWII and the Land Lease Act (LLA) injections of technology and war materiel to Soviet Union.
5. 1942+: VOA/RFE radio broadcasting American propaganda in Europe.
6. 1947-1991: Marshall Plan, creation of NATO and expansion of communism all the way to Berlin as a result of LLA’s boost of Soviet Union’s sphere of influence.
7. 1973: Yom Kippur War and resulting Oil Crisis that drove up oil prices and interest rates globally that affected both small creditors (bankruptcies galore stateside) and state creditors (Latin America hyperinflation and sovereign defaults, high unemployment, recession and stagflation in Western Europe, or declining standards of living in countries such as Romania, Poland or Yugoslavia that tried to keep up with ballooning interest payments).
8. 1977-1985: Billy Graham visits and preaches in Eastern Europe seeding evangelicalism.
9. 1989+: Neoliberal policies and NATO extended to Eastern Europe and funded heavily by US State Dept, CIA/DOD propaganda and a few billionaires non-profit orgs that groomed the future European neoliberal political elites.
10. 1994: Budapest Memorandum and Ukraine/NATO partnership as the dual fuses that gifted Europe the later 2014 Crimea annexation and current Ukraine War.

Bonus: 1972+ US-China relations normalization that has brought us the current geopolitical and global economy situation. This is the biggest (Trojan?) gift that will keep on giving to the whole world for many decades into the future.
ionelv: (Default)
The New York Times tells us how Trump took US to war with Iran.
Tldr verson: Bibi and a cabinet full of yes men.

The top comments to the article:
Scott T.
Nashville ·
10h ago
The level of misguided and impulsive policymaking described in this piece is nausea-inducing. All these people should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.
Replies 7
Recommend 2.5K

J. B. commented 10 hours ago
J
J. B.
Aurora, CO ·
10h ago
Netanyahu has now duped two Presidents into supporting war in the Middle East to distract from his own political problems. Biden stood by and did nothing about Gaza, and now Trump is actively doing Netanyahu's dirty work. All of the Yes Men are equally to blame.
Replies 14
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charles marlow commented 10 hours ago
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charles marlow
New London, CT ·
10h ago
"His instincts." Most patients in mental institutions rely on their instincts. That's why they're there in the first place.
Replies 1
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Fred commented 10 hours ago
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Fred
LA ·
10h ago
How Trump took the US to war with Iran…..simple, Israel and Israeli focused interests in the US told him to do so.
Replies 7
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NB commented 10 hours ago
N
NB
East & West ·
10h ago
This article gives Trump too much credit. Just follow the money. Thiel, Kushner, Musk and others with ties to Trump all stand to financially benefit from this war due to their heavy investments in defense companies, defense startup companies, or investment firms that invest in these industries.
Replies 5
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Ed o commented 9 hours ago
E
Ed o
San Diego ·
9h ago
Why doesn't anyone admit that the current Iran crisis was caused by Trump getting rid of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement in 2018? The agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), required Iran to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98% to 300 kg (660 lbs) and limit enrichment to 3.67%, civilian grade.
What did Trump accomplish by getting rid of the 2015 agreement?
Iran now has 440kg of 60% enrichment, near weapons grade . Iran continued to support Hamas and Hezbollah, and it strengthened the Iranian theocracy. It now has ballistic missiles.

Trump caused this problem. Now he is trying to fix it in the same way he broke it without a plan.
In my opinion, we are currently fighting to get back to where we were before Trump got rid of the 2015 accord. This is progress?
Replies 4
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James commented 10 hours ago
J
James
Burns, TN ·
10h ago
As much as the article notes that Vance and others weren't fully onboard with the decision, NOBODY was against it enough to resign in protest. in 2027/7 when Vance and Rubio are vying for the GOP nomination, we will do well to remember this when they all try to say they were against it..... They all chose their careers and political lives instead of standing on principle.
Replies 4
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Michael M commented 9 hours ago
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Michael M
Colorado ·
9h ago
Call me a skeptic, but this in part seems like JD Vance (or sources close to him ) trying to create a narrative for 2028 to distance himself from this disastrous, ill conceived war.

Sorry JD, you enabled and continue to enable Trump. You own and will own all the consequences of this Administration.
Replies 4
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Jimbo commented 10 hours ago
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Jimbo
Los Angeles ·
10h ago
His deadline is 8pm Eastern. Watch the Futures markets bets at 7:45pm and we’ll know if he bombs or tacos.
Replies 4
Recommend 877

Mort Mech commented 10 hours ago
M
Mort Mech
USA ·
10h ago
Combination of ignorance and power is the most destructive force on earth and Trump is the epitome of that.
Replies 2
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Science Teacher commented 10 hours ago
S
Science Teacher
Illinois ·
10h ago
I'm aghast and infuriated at Trump being surrounded by a whole crowd of sycophants who abandoned their oaths to the Constitution and the public to go along with his "instincts" when they all knew better.
Replies 2
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DennisMcG commented 9 hours ago
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DennisMcG
Boston ·
9h ago
I'd bet a decent amount it is Vance feeding a substantive amount of this information out, this whole thing reads like exculpatory evidence for him.
Replies 2
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Of note commented 10 hours ago
O
Of note
Washington ·
10h ago
I'm struck by how many of these people didn't voice an opinion, or did the "on the one hand, on the other" thing. They were in the room. The stakes were huge for this country and the world. It was their job to speak up.
Replies 1
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dave commented 9 hours ago
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dave
nc ·
9h ago
I’m sure Trump’s time on the apprentice, Kushner’s “work” as a full time nepo baby, Witikoff’s real estate experience and Hegseth’s time as a weekend tv show host, not to mention his white christian supremacy leanings, were all extremely helpful in the decision making process. Notably absent is anyone with real experience and/or expertise in this area. God help us.
Recommend 617

Vagabond Rambler commented 9 hours ago
V
Vagabond Rambler
Australia ·
9h ago
In most other U.S. presidential administrations this ridiculous one-hour sales pitch would have been met with replies like "Are you insane?" or "Do NOT start a war with Iran!". The war-pitch opportunity would probably not have been granted at all. Certainly not in the situation room. But Israel knew an easy mark when they saw one. And Trump was that easy mark.
Replies 2
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hop sing commented 10 hours ago
H
hop sing
SF, california ·
10h ago
Trump's total need, that hole in his bucket that can never be filled, is driving the train. Nothing he does offers more than a moment's satisfaction, so the next thing has to be bigger and badder-- but it never works. He has no stopping point, the the craven Republican Party is ignoring the truth of the situation.

The end will be supremely ugly.
Replies 3
Recommend 557

Futbolistaviva commented 9 hours ago
F
Futbolistaviva
San Francisco, CA ·
9h ago
A very interesting piece and equally disturbing.

Well done by the NYT reporters!

So as most informed Americans already knew, Bibi was the driving force behind this war with Iran. To have Kushner and Witkoff, the Keystone Cops (lining their pockets) as envoys is laughable.

No one, not one cabinet member had the courage to object to a war or resign on principle in protest.

We've seen better cabinets at IKEA.
Replies 2
Recommend 455

Brian C. commented 9 hours ago
B
Brian C.
Minnesota ·
9h ago
Great reporting as always.

My one hope is our military recognizes an illegal order and doesn’t follow it.

Bombing civilian infrastructure and killing innocent people is an illegal order.
Replies 3
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CitizenCO commented 9 hours ago
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CitizenCO
Denver, CO ·
9h ago
General Caine replied: “Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling.” That is the proof this whole thing was a Netanyahu led justification for US carrying out his war and the US is just a tool of a foreign government.

But Caine also led him down the path of the mission feasibility and the rest of the went all in - they are all war criminals in my view.

The apologia of Vance and Wiles complicity reads like PR cleansing knowing the operation is criminal and the phrase saying "Vance built his career" on anti war made me spit my coffee out as the "career" of JD Vance is like 15 minutes in historical terms and is as vapid as that description.
Replies 1
Recommend 379

Yossarian commented 8 hours agoIn reply thread
Y
Yossarian
Canada ·
8h ago
[personal profile] scott T.
I have been an avid student of American politics, both domestic and foreign, and a moderately-read student of American military history for the last 60 years.
With the information conveyed in this NYT article, I can now say that I have never seen such incompetent, shallow minded and inexcusably reckless leadership ever before at the top of your country's political, military and intelligence commands, commands that have the benefit of the knowledge of the lessons learned from the mistakes made in the Vietnam and Iraq wars and have nevertheless ignored those lessons.

I simply cannot imagine your country being in worse hands than it is at this moment.
Replies 1
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Stacey CT commented 9 hours agoIn reply thread
S
Stacey CT
Madison, Connecticut ·
9h ago
[personal profile] scott T. “Misguided and impulsive” is a generous assessment, like someone who didn’t plan well enough for a trip to Disney World.

I’d call this “evil and criminal”, among other things.
Recommend 359

Kathy Hughes commented 10 hours ago
K
Kathy Hughes
Centerville, OH ·
9h ago
This is going to be disastrous for the United States, and for our citizens as well. Hegseth and Trump cannot expect divine intervention to make up for their impulsive decision to fight an unholy war without adequate planning, strategy, and preparation. Unfortunately, it is ordinary citizens who will be left with the costs this war will impose.
Replies 2
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Mr. SeaMonkey commented 10 hours ago
Mr. SeaMonkey
Mr. SeaMonkey
Indiana ·
10h ago
It seems to me that our memory regarding war is about 25 years long. War is horrible, complex, and always longer than anticipated. We finished up with WWII and about 25 years later went into Vietnam. The general after-the-fact consensus was that it was a bad move. About 25 years later we went into Afghanistan and Iraq. The general after-the-fact consensus was that it was a bad move. Now, about 25 years later, we go into Iran. We always think that it will be easier than it turns out to be. History has a lot to teach us. But I guess that we are not capable of remembering.
Replies 5
Recommend 256

Maggie Haberman commented 4 hours ago
Maggie Haberman
Maggie Haberman
Senior Political Correspondent ·
4h ago
Benjamin Netanyahu made his war pitch from inside the Situation Room — a setting rarely used for in-person foreign leader meetings. The audience was President Trump and his inner circle. It proved to be a fateful meeting, as my colleague Jonathan Swan and I show in new reporting.
Replies 2
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Albro commented 10 hours ago
A
Albro
Wellington, ON, Canada ·
10h ago
What worries the most is that Trump will want to prolong this war until November to allow him to claim the country is at war and cancel the November mid terms.
Replies 4
Recommend 234

Jack commented 9 hours ago
J
Jack
Nebraska ·
9h ago
Just incredible. Every one of the president's closest cabinet members and advisors deferring to him, the dumbest, most ignorant man in the room, on the horrific decision to start a major war. For objectives that were ill-defined and clearly unobtainable. They all knew it was a bad idea (except for Hegseth, because he is also an ignoramus) and did nothing to stop him. Genuinely what is wrong with these people?
Replies 2
Recommend 233

Arthur commented 9 hours ago
A
Arthur
Toronto, ON ·
9h ago
I wonder if JD Vance, who stood silently when asked who won the 2020 election, and professes to be a devout Catholic has any introspection about the series of Faustian bargains he has made in his pursuit of power.
Replies 5
Recommend 232

Heiko from Offenbach commented 9 hours agoIn reply thread
H
Heiko from Offenbach
Germany ·
9h ago
[profile] j. B.
Joe Biden didn’t start any war!
Replies 2
Recommend 231

CN commented 10 hours ago
C
CN
Portland Oregon ·
10h ago
Hereafter, America and values can't be put in the same sentence. That's how we will be looked upon for a long time and we will be remembered as such in history.
Recommend 216


The only thing that surprised me in this sickening agit-prop puff piece was how JD is already being fluffed as the prime candidate to take over the dumpster fire before Jan 2029. Thiel and his tech bros are celebrating already.
ionelv: (Default)
The Atlantic had a nice article on the 5-year anniversary of the January 6, 2017 riots. Three things struck me:
1. The split-brain experience of what Jan 6 was,
2. The heavy realtime myth-making (even before the event) and retelling of what happened that day,
3. That although 1600 J6ers were convicted, the main culprit got away scot-free forever.

One thing that is missing from the article is the implications of this parallel reality: America will continue to tear itself apart if it does not reunify under a shared non-delusional history and a common purpose for all.

Excerpts:
Back in 2015, when Trump had begun his presidential campaign, Webster hadn’t taken him seriously, because he “said some crazy-ass stuff.” Webster thought of himself as a traditional, small-government, libertarian-leaning Reagan Republican; he’d supported Ted Cruz in the 2016 Republican primary. Now, though, he began to find Trump’s bombast refreshing. In the president’s words, Webster heard echoes of his own thoughts about the strangulating overreach of an authoritarian government. Some of what Trump said about foreign policy also began to resonate with Webster, particularly his statements about wanting America to quit its “forever wars,” because he worried about his daughter in the Marines.

[…]

Over the course of 2020, Webster found himself pulled more and more deeply into the MAGA camp. The concept of “Make America Great Again” seemed pretty brilliant to him. Who could argue with it? Webster had been disappointed to see the Obama administration go on what he thought was an endless apology tour around the world. Trump, in contrast, embraced the country and was unabashed in putting America first. “I really appreciated that,” Webster told me recently. “I didn’t view MAGA as ‘extremism.’ I viewed it as a sense of patriotism, a love of God and family and country.”

[…]

We won this election, and we won it by a landslide,” he said. After telling them to “peacefully and patriotically” make their voices heard, in order to give Republicans the courage to reject the certification, he shifted to inflaming them: “We fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.” He told them to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol, where Congress was beginning the certification proceedings, and said that he would go with them. (He did not go with them.)

[…]

But within hours of the attack on the Capitol, an alternative narrative was already forming. On her show the evening of January 6, the Fox News host Laura Ingraham wondered aloud whether antifa sympathizers had infiltrated the crowd. Before long, a chorus of conservative-media personalities, far-right lawmakers, and family members of rioters was suggesting that the reports of savagery had been overblown; that the events of that day had been more peaceful protest than violent insurrection; that the real insurrection had been on November 3, when the election was stolen.
By March, Trump was telling Ingraham live on Fox News that the crowd had posed “zero threat right from the start” and that protesters had been “hugging and kissing” the police. By the fall, Trump and other prominent MAGA figures were regularly referring to the rioters turned defendants as “patriots” and “political hostages.” January 6, Trump would later say, was “a day of love.” News clips featured residents of the “Patriot Pod,” a unit at the D.C. jail that housed January 6 defendants, singing “The Star-Spangled Banner” every night—and before long, Trump was playing a recording of their rendition at the start of his political rallies. On his Fox News show a year after the insurrection, Tucker Carlson said, “January 6 barely rates as a footnote. Really not a lot happened that day, if you think about it.” Representative Clay Higgins, a Republican from Louisiana, has said, “The whole thing was a nefarious agenda to entrap MAGA Americans.” Shortly after the first anniversary of January 6, Trump mentioned the possibility of pardoning the defendants if he were reelected.

[…]

In November 2024, when Americans reelected Trump, Hodges felt a deep sense of grief. During 11 years of policing, he’d seen people do terrible things to one another—shootings, stabbings, maimings. But the election results strained his faith in humanity more than any of that. After all Trump has done? Hodges thought. After all we know about him? His friend Harry Dunn, a former Capitol Police officer who’d been called “nigger” for the first time while in uniform on January 6, later said that seeing the 2024 election unfold was like watching the end of Titanic : You knew what was coming, but it still hurt to watch. Both Dunn and Hodges long ago grew tired of talk about the “shifting narrative” of January 6. “Ain’t no narrative,” Dunn likes to say. “Play the tape.”

[…]

Still, Hodges hoped that there would be some nuance in who received pardons. There was not. Trump did not weigh each case like Solomon: He issued full pardons to almost all of the 1,600 people charged in connection with the insurrection. Of those, about 600 had been charged with resisting arrest or assaulting officers, 175 of them with dangerous or deadly weapons. No matter how big their sin, no matter what all of those judges and juries had decided, almost everyone was just—poof—forgiven. The only (partial) exceptions were the 14 members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys whose sentences Trump commuted, meaning they were released from prison but their convictions were not erased.

[…]

Recently, I told Hodges that I’d been interviewing Tom Webster about January 6. Hodges vaguely remembered the story about the former NYPD cop who’d assaulted one of his colleagues. When I told him that Webster still believed that the 2020 election may have been stolen, Hodges was not surprised. He doesn’t think people like Webster will stop lying to themselves anytime soon. “They can’t,” Hodges said; the cognitive dissonance and moral pain would be too great.
Accepting reality would mean reevaluating everything they thought they knew—that their actions were ethical and justified, that they are great patriots. Accepting the truth of January 6 would require coming to grips with the fact that they supported a con man and participated in a violent plot to subvert democracy. The immediate reward for undertaking this kind of hard self-examination would mainly be shame and regret.
“To grapple with these truths would, in a very real way, unmake them,” Hodges said.

[…]

I pointed out to Webster that he had apologized to Officer Rathbun in court. Wasn’t that a concession that he’d acted wrongly on January 6? In response, Webster said that, although he feels “bad about how the whole day went down,” his apology should not be taken as an admission of guilt: “I was pressured by my lawyer to apologize. He said it would help me reduce my sentence.”

[…]

Webster is disappointed by where things stand now: With Trump in office and MAGA conservatives in power, they finally have the ability to prove what happened that day—so why aren’t they? When Dan Bongino was a podcaster, he repeatedly asserted that undercover agents embedded in the crowd had helped orchestrate January 6; now that Trump has made him deputy director of the FBI, why isn’t Bongino releasing the evidence? Webster feels similarly disappointed in FBI Director Kash Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi. “Why are you guys always bragging about arresting illegal Mexicans doing roof work?” he asked. He wonders why they’re not instead exposing the plots of the deep state, as Trump has demanded. Webster believes that Bongino and Patel have become polluted by the same swamp that Trump has again and again vowed to clean up.

[…]

As Webster looked out at the members of the crowd, he thought they’d probably Google him when they got home. Which video clip would they find? he wondered—would it tell the right story or the wrong one? Would they see him as a felon or a patriot? Which truth would they believe?
On his way home, Webster told his wife that he wouldn’t speak at any more events. Reliving what they’d been through was too painful. And he didn’t see much point until the whole story was revealed. So he waits for the truth to solidify into something firm enough to stand on, a day he fears may never come.
ionelv: (Default)
I heard the argument from Theodor Paleologu that Cleon's populist Mytilene speech foreshadowed all future populist speeches. Here is that famous Mytilene debate speech by Cleon (who was arguing for putting all Mytilenean male adults to death and taking the women and children into slavery) as documented by Thucydides (with my own highlights):

37. "I have often before now been convinced that a democracy is incapable of empire, and never more so than by your present change of mind in the matter of Mitylene. Fears or plots being unknown to you in your daily relations with each other, you feel just the same with regard to your allies, and never reflect that the mistakes into which you may be led by listening to their appeals, or by giving way to your own compassion, are full of danger to yourselves, and bring you no thanks for your weakness from your allies; entirely forgetting that your empire is a despotism and your subjects disaffected conspirators, whose obedience is ensured not by your suicidal concessions, but by the superiority given you by your own strength and not their loyalty. The most alarming feature in the case is the constant change of measures with which we appear to be threatened, and our seeming ignorance of the fact that bad laws which are never changed are better for a city than good ones that have no authority; that unlearned loyalty is more serviceable than quick-witted insubordination; and that ordinary men usually manage public affairs better than their more gifted fellows. The latter are always wanting to appear wiser than the laws, and to overrule every proposition brought forward, thinking that they cannot show their wit in more important matters, and by such behaviour too often ruin their country; while those who mistrust their own cleverness are content to be less learned than the laws, and less able to pick holes in the speech of a good speaker; and being fair judges rather than rival athletes, generally conduct affairs successfully. These we ought to imitate, instead of being led on by cleverness and intellectual rivalry to advise your people against our real opinions.

38. "For myself, I adhere to my former opinion, and wonder at those who have proposed to reopen the case of the Mitylenians, and who are thus causing a delay which is all in favour of the guilty, by making the sufferer proceed against the offender with the edge of his anger blunted; although where vengeance follows most closely upon the wrong, it best equals it and most amply requites it. I wonder also who will be the man who will maintain the contrary, and will pretend to show that the crimes of the Mitylenians are of service to us, and our misfortunes injurious to the allies. Such a man must plainly either have such confidence in his rhetoric as to adventure to prove that what has been once for all decided is still undetermined, or be bribed to try to delude us by elaborate sophisms. In such contests the state gives the rewards to others, and takes the dangers for herself. The persons to blame are you who are so foolish as to institute these contests; who go to see an oration as you would to see a sight, take your facts on hearsay, judge of the practicability of a project by the wit of its advocates, and trust for the truth as to past events not to the fact which you saw more than to the clever strictures which you heard; the easy victims of new-fangled arguments, unwilling to follow received conclusions; slaves to every new paradox, despisers of the commonplace; the first wish of every man being that he could speak himself, the next to rival those who can speak by seeming to be quite up with their ideas by applauding every hit almost before it is made, and by being as quick in catching an argument as you are slow in foreseeing its consequences; asking, if I may so say, for something different from the conditions under which we live, and yet comprehending inadequately those very conditions; very slaves to the pleasure of the ear, and more like the audience of a rhetorician than the council of a city.

39. "In order to keep you from this, I proceed to show that no one state has ever injured you as much as Mitylene. I can make allowance for those who revolt because they cannot bear our empire, or who have been forced to do so by the enemy. But for those who possessed an island with fortifications; who could fear our enemies only by sea, and there had their own force of galleys to protect them; who were independent and held in the highest honour by you—to act as these have done, this is not revolt—revolt implies oppression; it is deliberate and wanton aggression; an attempt to ruin us by siding with our bitterest enemies; a worse offence than a war undertaken on their own account in the acquisition of power. The fate of those of their neighbours who had already rebelled and had been subdued was no lesson to them; their own prosperity could not dissuade them from affronting danger; but blindly confident in the future, and full of hopes beyond their power though not beyond their ambition, they declared war and made their decision to prefer might to right, their attack being determined not by provocation but by the moment which seemed propitious. The truth is that great good fortune coming suddenly and unexpectedly tends to make a people insolent; in most cases it is safer for mankind to have success in reason than out of reason; and it is easier for them, one may say, to stave off adversity than to preserve prosperity. Our mistake has been to distinguish the Mitylenians as we have done: had they been long ago treated like the rest, they never would have so far forgotten themselves, human nature being as surely made arrogant by consideration as it is awed by firmness. Let them now therefore be punished as their crime requires, and do not, while you condemn the aristocracy, absolve the people. This is certain, that all attacked you without distinction, although they might have come over to us and been now again in possession of their city. But no, they thought it safer to throw in their lot with the aristocracy and so joined their rebellion! Consider therefore: if you subject to the same punishment the ally who is forced to rebel by the enemy, and him who does so by his own free choice, which of them, think you, is there that will not rebel upon the slightest pretext; when the reward of success is freedom, and the penalty of failure nothing so very terrible? We meanwhile shall have to risk our money and our lives against one state after another; and if successful, shall receive a ruined town from which we can no longer draw the revenue upon which our strength depends; while if unsuccessful, we shall have an enemy the more upon our hands, and shall spend the time that might be employed in combating our existing foes in warring with our own allies.

40. "No hope, therefore, that rhetoric may instill or money purchase, of the mercy due to human infirmity must be held out to the Mitylenians. Their offence was not involuntary, but of malice and deliberate; and mercy is only for unwilling offenders. I therefore, now as before, persist against your reversing your first decision, or giving way to the three failings most fatal to empire—pity, sentiment, and indulgence. Compassion is due to those who can reciprocate the feeling, not to those who will never pity us in return, but are our natural and necessary foes: the orators who charm us with sentiment may find other less important arenas for their talents, in the place of one where the city pays a heavy penalty for a momentary pleasure, themselves receiving fine acknowledgments for their fine phrases; while indulgence should be shown towards those who will be our friends in future, instead of towards men who will remain just what they were, and as much our enemies as before. To sum up shortly, I say that if you follow my advice you will do what is just towards the Mitylenians, and at the same time expedient; while by a different decision you will not oblige them so much as pass sentence upon yourselves. For if they were right in rebelling, you must be wrong in ruling. However, if, right or wrong, you determine to rule, you must carry out your principle and punish the Mitylenians as your interest requires; or else you must give up your empire and cultivate honesty without danger. Make up your minds, therefore, to give them like for like; and do not let the victims who escaped the plot be more insensible than the conspirators who hatched it; but reflect what they would have done if victorious over you, especially they were the aggressors. It is they who wrong their neighbour without a cause, that pursue their victim to the death, on account of the danger which they foresee in letting their enemy survive; since the object of a wanton wrong is more dangerous, if he escape, than an enemy who has not this to complain of. Do not, therefore, be traitors to yourselves, but recall as nearly as possible the moment of suffering and the supreme importance which you then attached to their reduction; and now pay them back in their turn, without yielding to present weakness or forgetting the peril that once hung over you. Punish them as they deserve, and teach your other allies by a striking example that the penalty of rebellion is death. Let them once understand this and you will not have so often to neglect your enemies while you are fighting with your own confederates."
ionelv: (Default)
Top: BBC (1/2), NYT, TorStar, politico.eu, WaPo, R, DW, LM

Contributors.ro: TG, AUG, DD

Ziare.com

evz.ro: CB, MD (1, 2)

recorder.ro: 1, 2

digi24.ro: Oltenita, partide

adevarul.ro: AV, CM, DM

libertatea.ro: IS, DA (1, 2)

gsp.ro: 1, 2, 3, 4

RJ

republica.ro: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

hotnews.ro: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

DFM: 1, 2, HA, 4

FB: VE (1, 2, 3), CTP (0, 1), SI, HBM, DP, CTP, TB, CD, DU, SP, DF, FN, ȘR (1, 2), IB, CT, LL, CB, LV, LS, MB, CD, VA (1, 2), RB, VT (1, 2), VN, TP/DB, DH (1, 2), NS, ND, OD, CR, TP (1, 2, 3)

YT: MN, IV, AP, ON, Z, G, G/IC, TVR/CTP, V/CP, CdI/CP

Misc: TDM


Context: II wikipedia, 1989, 1990-91 Mineriads, 2006 report, his blog
ionelv: (Default)
A few weeks ago, I read Cioran's History and Utopia in roughly two sittings. I like his first two essays best in their maniacal dissection of humanity reminiscent of Nietzsche's Übermensch, the Gnostics or simply foreshadowing our current times. Semi-random excerpts:
I pity those who have never conceived a dream of excessive domination, nor felt the times seething within themselves. In the days when Ahriman was my principle and my god, when I thirsted for barbarism, I brooded over the cavalcades within myself, hordes provoking one sweet catastrophe after the next! Foundered as I have, nowadays, in modesty, I nonetheless harbor a weakness for tyrants, whom I always prefer to redeemers and prophets; I prefer them because they do not take refuge in formulas; because their prestige is an equivocal one, their cravings self-destructive; whereas the others, possessed of a limitless ambition, dis guise its aims under deceptive precepts, retreat from the citizen in order to rule over conscience, to occupy it, and, once implanted there, to create permanent ravages without incurring the reproach, however merited, of indiscretion or sadism. Compared to the power of a Buddha, a Jesus, or a Mohammed, what does that of the conquerors signify?
Abandon the notion of glory unless you are tempted to found a religion!

The Furies were held to antedate the gods, Zeus included. Vengeance before Divinity! This is the major intuition of ancient mythology.

Every undermining labor exalts, confers energy; whence the urgency, whence the practical infallibility of vile sentiments. Envy, which makes a fool into a daredevil, a worm into a tiger, whips up our nerves, ignites our blood, communicates to the body a shudder that keeps it from going soft, lends the most anodyne countenance an expression of concentrated ardor; without envy, there would be no events, nor even a world; indeed it is envy that has made man possible, permitted him to gain a name for himself, to accede to greatness by the fall, by that rebellion against the anonymous glory of paradise, to which-any more than the Fallen Angel, his inspiration and his model-he could not adapt himself. Everything that breathes and moves testifies to the initial taint. Forever associated with the effervescences of Satan (patron of Time, scarcely distinct from God, being merely
His visible countenance), we are victims of this genius of sedition who persuades us to perform our task as living men by rousing us against one another in a deplorable combat, no doubt, but a fortifying one: we emerge from torpor, enlivened whenever-triumphing over our Higher Impulses-we become aware of our role as destroyers.

He who has suffered humiliation will never forget its effects and will know no rest until he has put them into a work capable of perpetuating its pangs. To create is to bequeath one's sufferings, wanting others to enter into them, to assume them, to be impregnated by them, and to live them over again. This is true of a poem, this can be true of the cosmos. Without the hypothesis of a feverish deity subject to convulsions, giddy with epilepsy, we could not explain a universe that . everywhere shows signs of an original sputum . . . . And we divine the essence of such a God only when we ourselves suffer fits such as He must have known at the moments He came to grips with Chaos. We are reminded of Him by everything in ourselves that resists form or good sense, by our confusions and our delirium: we join Him by supplications in which we dislocate ourselves in Him and Him in us, for He is close to us whenever something in ourselves breaks down and when, in our fashion, we too measure ourselves against Chaos. A summary theology? Contemplating this botched Creation, how can we help incriminating its Author, how-above all-suppose Him able and adroit? Any other God would have given evidence of more competence or more equilibrium than this one: errors and confusion wherever you look! Impossible to absolve Him, but impossible, too, not to understand Him. And we understand Him by everything in ourselves that is fragmentary, incomplete, and inopportune. His enterprise bears the stigmata of the provisional, yet it is not time He lacked in order to finish things off. He was, to our misfortune, inexplicably rushed. By a legitimate ingratitude, and to make Him feel the brunt of our ill humor, we set about-experts in counter-Creation-deteriorating His structure, rendering even messier a work already compromised from the start. Doubtless it would be wiser and more elegant to have nothing to do with it, to leave it as it is, not to exact reprisal for His own incapacities; but since He has transmitted His defects to us, we cannot show Him much solicitude. If, all things considered, we prefer Him to humanity, this does not exempt Him from our resentment. Perhaps we have conceived Him only to justify and regenerate our rebellions, to afford them a worthy object, to keep them from spoiling and dwindling, reinforcing them by the inspiriting abuse of sacrilege, an answer to the arguments and seductions of discouragement. We are never quite finished with God. Treating Him on equal footing as an enemy is an impertinence that fortifies, stimulates, and how much we must pity those He has ceased to annoy.
ionelv: (Default)
Ma mira cat de putini observa realitatea mult mai crunta si anume ca Romania (sau locuitorii de pe teritoriul ei) a fost de milenii musca de pe fundul armasarului (fie el roman, bizantin, bulgar, ungur, polonez, austriac, otoman, rus, german sau american).
Ce visuri desarte are biata musca cand isi inchipuie ca poate sa tina pas cu herghelia fara sa observe ca armasarul american a lasat-o in urma deja, iar armasarii vest europeni vor face la fel indata ce armasarul rus necheaza putin mai tare.
ionelv: (Default)
All of humanity’s history (especially its major shifts) can be explained by 3 major processes:
1. Charisma+sociopathy (e.g. Caesar, Napoleon, Lenin, Hitler)
2. Disruption: climate and innovations/inventions (e.g. major droughts, religion, war machines/tactics, computers)
3. Positive feedback mechanisms: compounding interest, rent seeking, oligopoly, monopoly, wealth concentration.
ionelv: (Default)
It is projected that data center power consumption will increase by orders or magnitude in the near future. It is also very unlikely that this growing power consumption will be slowed down due to climate change concerns because a lot of the power is needed in the newest arm race (I.e. AI-driven cutting edge military tech) between the world’s top superpowers.

Some may find the upcoming US-China war as futile and self-destructive on so many levels (or as an inevitable showdown between the leading philosophies: ouroboros crapitalism and authoritarianism) and probably worse than previous world wars, yet, if humans are really good at something is at repeating history again and again with abandon, a self-imposed nihilistic Sisyphianism of sorts.

The irony in this latest sequel is that all the energy wasted in developing, growing and honing the latest killing machines and/or profit makers (although not dissimilar from past efforts) is conceptually not very different from all the energy wasted across millennia in developing, growing and honing power structures around (seemingly) different primitive cosmogonies and golden calves that claim primacy and their syncretic permutation (more often than not) as the unique truth about human nature and purpose.

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
ionelv: (Default)
mRNA vaccine history:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/the-story-of-mrna-how-a-once-dismissed-idea-became-a-leading-technology-in-the-covid-vaccine-race/
https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/the-long-history-of-mrna-vaccines
https://cihr-irsc.gc.ca/e/52424.html

Safety:
https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/covid-vaccine-came-out-super-quickly-heres-why-its-safe

Stage 3 trials:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

Short COVID vaccine history in Romanian:
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/how-are-vaccines-developed-authorised-and-put-market_ro

Similarities and dissimilarities between COVID-19 virus and previous corona viruses:
https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-micro-110520-023212

mRNA vaccine technology:
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41573-021-00283-5
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10384963/
https://jbiomedsci.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12929-023-00977-5

Pharmacovigilance:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9589581/
https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8247/17/6/807
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8662238/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10043970/

Misinformation:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9858741/

GBS and COVID vaccines:
https://www.jwatch.org/na56706/2023/11/20/covid-19-and-vaccines-risk-factors-guillain-barr-syndrome
"[...] cohort of 3,193,951 patients [...] 76 patients diagnosed with GBS [...] Adenovirus-vectored vaccines showed a 2.4 times increased risk of GBS that was about seven times higher compared with mRNA-based vaccines."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10896967
"We included 17 cohorts from 13 studies, collecting 1450 GBS cases over a total of 1,058,927,070 administered vaccine doses. The random-effects model yielded 1.25 GBS cases per million vaccine doses (95%CI 0.21; 2.83). [...] The GBS rate for adenovirus-vectored vaccines was five times higher than for mRNA vaccines."
ionelv: (Default)
It is very telling that a simple edit revealed the character of a nation that still has not lived up to that first rough draft. So, "We hold these Truths to be self evident; that all Men are created equal and independent" lost that last word in the final version and it still has not made up for it despite multiple attempts to undo that initial injustice.
ionelv: (Default)
NPR’s Throughline had an excellent episode on The Great Textbook War, that covers US school culture wars going back to WWI. It mentioned, Harold Rugg, B Forbes, American Legion and “unamerican” book burnings. It reminded me of my high school US history teacher, Chomsky and Zinn’s People’s History of the United States.

Jilava

Nov. 12th, 2023 08:40 am
ionelv: (Default)
Note the differences in wikipedia entry for Jilava penitenciary re: political prisoners post-WWII (my highlights are in bold).
EN wikipedia RO wikipedia
The prison also was a detention site for political prisoners after the start of Communist rule in Romania. According to a study done by the International Centre for Studies into Communism, 36.1% of all such prisoners did some time at Jilava Prison. Among the political prisoners detained at Jilava were Corneliu Coposu, Richard Wurmbrand, Gen. Radu Korne, Gen. Nicolae Ciupercă, and Gen. Radu R. Rosetti, as well as Gheorghe Arsenescu, Gen. Radu Băldescu, Aristide Blank, Matei Boilă, Victor Cădere, Gen. Dumitru Carlaonț, Gen. Dumitru Coroamă, Gen. Nicolae Dăscălescu, Gen. Ioan Dumitrache, Anton Durcovici, Radu Filipescu, Paul Goma, Iuliu Hirțea, Iuliu Hossu, Ion Ioanid, George Ivașcu, Adm. Horia Macellariu, Mihail Manoilescu, Gen. Gheorghe Manoliu, Gen. Ion Negoițescu, Constantin Noica, Ovidiu Papadima, Lucrețiu Pătrășcanu, Gherman Pântea, I. Peltz, Nicolae Penescu, Constantin Titel Petrescu, Gen. David Popescu, Mihai Rădulescu, Alexander Ratiu, Nicolae Steinhardt, Alexandru Todea, Sandu Tudor, Alexandru Zub, and many others. În timpul celui de-Al Doilea Război Mondial, deși era închisoare militară, a devenit locul de detenție, atât preventivă cât și după condamnare, pentru deținuții politici. Rămâne ca închisoare militară până la 1 aprilie 1948 când e transformată în penitenciar în subordinea Ministerului de Interne, la Direcția Generală a Penitenciarelor.

Începând din anul 1966, în Penitenciarul Jilava s-a înființat o secție unde erau deținute elementele cele mai înrăite și recalcitrante. Astfel, la 1 august 1967 erau deținute persoane care au săvârșit infracțiuni contra securității statului, deținuți de drept comun recidiviști, cu condamnări peste 10 ani sau care nu puteau fi folosiți la muncă, deținuți de drept comun, înrăiți și recalcitranți, indiferent de starea de recidivă, infracțiunea comisă și condamnare, cărora li se aplică un regim sever, foști evadați din unitățile Direcției Generale a Penitenciarelor, indiferent de starea de recidivă, infracțiunea săvârșită și de condamnare, care nu sunt folosiți la munci.

În anul 1973 s-a dat în folosință blocul nou în care au fost cazați deținuți minori, bloc care era format din centrul de primire, observare și repartizare minori și Penitenciarul pentru Minori. În locul Penitenciarului pentru Minori a luat ființă în 1987 Penitenciarul de Tineri București ce a funcționat până în anul 1988 când, prin demolarea Penitenciarului Rahova, deținuții de acolo au fost transferați aici începându-se extinderea spațiilor de deținere cu încă un corp de clădire finalizat în anul 1990.

În perioada 17 decembrie 1989 - 31 ianuarie 1990 a avut loc o revoltă a deținuților care au reușit să iasă din camere prin forțarea ușilor, să se urce pe clădiri, iar în unele locuri au forțat dispozitivele de pază, cerând punerea în libertate deși nu beneficiau de acest act de clemență.
ionelv: (Default)
Verso Books have made available 5 free books on the Israel-Palestine conflict:


I read parts of Pappe's book and I must say his demystification of the Oslo negotiations and predictable fallout is bang on. The map proposed by Israel during Oslo II (1995) (even though it is mentioned in chapter 8) is the very definition of unfairness and cynicism:
ionelv: (Default)

I recently found out from wikipedia's main page that before Pong (1972) there was Computer Space (1971). Interesting details can be found here: computerspacefan.com, marvin3m.com, retrochallenge, schematics


M swears that it looks a lot like Asteroids (1979) and it seems that the latter was inspired by the former (along with influences from 1962 Spacewar! and my personal favorite, 1978 Space Invaders).

ionelv: (Default)

Francis Fukuyama is infamous for his post-1990 predictions. He recently opined on Putin's war and had to employ some clunky phrasing to explain away his past follies:


The horrific Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 has been seen as a critical turning point in world history. Many have said that it definitively marks the end of the post-cold war era, a rollback of the “Europe whole and free” that we thought emerged after 1991, or indeed, the end of The End of History.




Global GBP per capita growth during recessions

Global GBP per capita growth during recessions



Read more... )
ionelv: (Default)

CBC Gem and TVO are streaming/casting a wonderful documentary about James Baldwin: I am not your Negro. TVO even has the transcript. A few utterings struck a chord with me:


We are cruelly trapped between what we would like to be and what we actually are and we cannot possibly become what we would like to be until we are willing to ask ourselves just why the lives we lead on this continent are mainly so empty, so tame, and so ugly.

What white people have to do is try to find out, in their own hearts, why it was necessary to have a "nigger" in the first place, because I'm not a nigger, I'm a man. But if you think I'm a nigger, it means you need him. The question you've got to ask yourself, the white population of this country has got to ask itself, north and south, because it's one country, and for the negro, there is no difference between the north and the south... It's just a difference in the way they castrate you, but the fact of the castration is American fact. If I'm not the nigger here and you invented him, you the white people invented him, then you've got to find out why and the future of the country depends on that, whether or not it's able to ask that question.
ionelv: (Default)
At the end of the last ice age, around 13,000 years ago, retreating glaciers created an inland corridor connecting Siberia to the Americas. People from northeast Asia crossed the Bering Strait land bridge and entered a new world. [...] But, according to the University of Kansas anthropological geneticist Jennifer Raff, that’s not quite how it happened.

In her new book, “Origin: A Genetic History of the Americas,” Raff beautifully integrates new data from different sciences (archaeology, genetics, linguistics) and different ways of knowing, including Indigenous oral traditions, in a masterly retelling of the story of how, and when, people reached the Americas. While admittedly not an archaeologist herself, Raff skillfully reveals how well-dated archaeological sites, including recently announced 22,000-year-old human footprints from White Sands, N.M., are at odds with the Clovis first hypothesis. She builds a persuasive case with both archaeological and genetic evidence that the path to the Americas was coastal (the Kelp Highway hypothesis) rather than inland, and that Beringia was not a bridge but a homeland — twice the size of Texas — inhabited for millenniums by the ancestors of the First Peoples of the Americas. 




Genetic and geographical map of Beringia (source: Jen Raff/sapiens.org)

Genetic and geographical map of Beringia (source: Jen Raff/sapiens.org)



About 17,000 years ago, on the western coast of present-day Alaska, the ice sheets began to melt, and the First Peoples expanded southward. This expansion left very clear imprints in the genomes of their descendants. Mitochondrial DNA lineages show us that after the LGM, people were suddenly and rapidly spreading out. Their populations were growing enormously—about 60-fold between about 16,000 and 13,000 years ago.

This population explosion is exactly what we expect to see in the genetic record when people move into new territories, where resources are far less limited, there is no competition from other people, and the game animals have no natural fear of humans, having never seen them before.
ionelv: (Default)
So, far some strange reason I'm reading about the Alamo, right? And I discover two odd things:
1. "Remember the Goliad!" would have been a more appropriate memorable expression than "Remember the Alamo! Remember the Goliad", which unfortunately got shortened to "Remember the Alamo!".
2. At the Battle of San Jacinto (which more or less confirmed Texas' independence from Mexico), the Texans managed to kill 630 Mexican troops, and wounded 208, while suffering only 9 kills and 30 wounded, after crossing an open field distance of one thousand yards while shouting "Remember the Alamo!" and "Remember the Goliad!". Were the Mexican conscripts that terrible shooters or were the Texans that much better?

On a similar surrealist note, after thinking that it would be really cool to write a paper on the cultural semiotics of chainletter jokes, I found a paper called Palindrome semiotics. Now, the interesting thing is that I love palindromes, so I start reading this paper which mentions Oskar Pastior as "the outstanding contemporary German palindrome poet", so I immediately look for some of his work, which unfortunately is mostly in German (duhh!), but I do find out that he was from Hermannstadt/Sibiu, Romania, and that he did not emigrate from Romania until the late '60s (when he was already in his 40s). So, I'm intrigued and I look further, hoping to find some of his works in Romanian. I don't find any, but I did find a website in the memory of one of his acquaintances, Gellu Naum, a Romanian surrealist. I liked Gellu's poetry so much, that I translated one of his poems:

Ciclu
În fiecare toamnă şi în fiecare primăvară
bunicul străbătea cu oile spaţiul caropato-balcanic
dus-întors
şi oile făceau beee
exprimând astfel legile tăcute ale migraţiei

Într-o bună zi oile au murit

În transhumanţa lui solitară
bunicul a lăsat să-i crească nişte mustăţi lungi
şi s-a apucat să mâne o turmă de pietre

Apoi bunicul a murit şi el
mustăţile i-au crescut şi mai lungi
pietrele au intrat în pământ
şi au început să-i roadă mustăţile
Cycle
Every fall and every spring
grandfather walked the Balkans with his sheep
round-trip
and the sheep bleated bahh
thus expressing the mute laws of migration

One good day the sheep died

In his solitary transhumance
grandfather grew a long mustache
and started to lead a flock of rocks

Then grandfather died too
the mustache grew longer still
the rocks sank in the soil
and started to gnaw on his mustache

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