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Manufacturing risk-free government debt

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Zhengyang
  • Lustig, Hanno
  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
  • Xiaolan, Mindy Z.

Abstract

In the presence of aggregate risk, governments face a trade-off between insuring taxpayers or bondholders. The literature assumes that the government can finance deficits at the risk-free rate, protecting bondholders at the expense of taxpayers. We characterize the implications of this assumption on the surplus process. Under reasonable debt dynamics, counter-cyclical debt issuance that protects taxpayers against adverse macro-economic shocks is limited in time and scope, and comes at the expense of higher long-run risk. We find that the restrictions imposed by risk-free debt are rejected in U.S. surplus data, especially after the GFC. Taxpayers have been protected at the expense of bondholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy Z., 2026. "Manufacturing risk-free government debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:176:y:2026:i:c:s0304405x25002119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104203

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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    3. YiLi Chien & Wenxin Du & Hanno Lustig, 2025. "Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money," Working Papers 2025-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Shultz, Patrick, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16414, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2023. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(6), pages 3561-3620, December.
    6. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    7. Gaetano Bloise & Pietro Reichlin, 2023. "Low safe interest rates: A case for dynamic inefficiency?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 633-656, December.
    8. Chien, YiLi & Wen, Yi, 2022. "The determination of public debt under both aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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