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Causal Decision Theory and the Fixity of the Past
Abstract
Causal decision theory (CDT) cares only about the effects of a contemplated act, not its causes. The article constructs a case in which CDT consequently recommends a bet that the agent is certain to lose, rather than a bet that she is certain to win. CDT is plainly giving wrong advice in this case. It therefore stands refuted.
1 The Argument
2 The Argument in More Detail
2.1 The betting mechanism
2.2 Soft determinism
2.3 The content of P
2.4 The argument again
3 The Descriptive Premise
3.1 Causal decision theory
3.2 Causal decision theory prefers A1
4 The Normative Premise
