Dismal. I hope we can finish with a winning record. There's been a lot of hectic offseason topics. He's my opinion on them all
-Dusty's out. I'm torn about this move. He doesn't drive our players hard enough, and some of his managerial decisions are downright puzzling. He does inspire some spark among the players, and it's questionable if Price will be able to lead the team better. Maybe the Reds should have gone outside the organization, but yeah, money is kind of tight. I get that
-Hannigan traded. Just plain stupid. Sure, Ryan's offense has gone down every year, but that's not why he's difficult to replace. He's a defensive star. He can call excellent games, and he can get some great performances out of the pitchers. The two noteworthy defensive players in the lineup in 2012, Hannigan and Stubbs, are gone. Both were lousy at the plate. Hannigan encouraged low ERAs from the staff, and Stubbs could run down almost everything in the air. I hope this doesn't have an effect on our rotation, because I don't know how solid Mesoraco is at calling games. It's arguable how much better our offense will be, because Mesoraco only batted .239, with a .287 OBP. I don't know if he's an everyday kind of catcher. Our pitching will suffer, and our 8-spot in the order won't be that much better at the plate. I know we got a future pitching star for Hannigan. Maybe Homer's replacement, because...
-Homer Bailey may not come cheap. He wants $11m. The Reds offer is $8m. That's pretty far off. He's turning 28 this year, and this may be his prime year. After the Kershaw signing, he may want a decent multi-year offer. What if we can't give him that? We threw so much money at Votto and Phillips, that I don't know how much is left to court the rest of the team. It's rumored the Reds are shopping him. Ugh. Ryan Hannigan caught practically every game for Bailey. There may be a slight dropoff in his performance with Mesoraco behind the plate. Still, you can't easily replace someone like Bailey, and I don't know if there's anyone in the minors who can do the trick if Homer doesn't sign.
-Bronson Arroyo not coming back. Always like Bronson, and I understand why he isn't coming back. It's money. He's a solid middle of the order pitcher, and after the All-Star Game, he really shines. He eats up innings and doesn't get hurt. It's hard to replace someone like that. Cingrani is good, and he'll be tapped to be that guy, but I question how many innings he can go. Cingrani has a habit of throwing too many pitches and reaching his limit by the 5th inning. He can't go as many innings in the course of a year as Arroyo can, and our bullpen may be a little overworked as a result. And it's a question if Cingrani has the endurance to pitch an entire year. This is a concern.
-Billy Hamilton. There's some question whether he can hit successfully on the major league level. Once opposing pitchers figure him out, he may have OBP issues. He can steal almost every base once he's on, but what if he can only get on base only a quarter of the time? We couldn't afford to retain Choo, and Hamilton is the best we can do, and I do hope he's ready
Joey Votto. Last year, Joey cost us some games. He changed his priorities, and started to walk a whole lot. Simply getting on base was good enough for him, and considering the lack of threat behind him, many pitchers were happy to give him first base. Phillips and Bruce had career-highs in RBIs last season, but Votto's RBI production went down. For a guy who's getting paid a ridiculous salary, I expected more from him than simply getting on base. It can be argued that the lineup didn't pose any real threats, that it wasn't much of an issue walking Votto when Phillips was up next. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter, and his threat at the plate was not very high. Ludwick isn't much of one either, and neither is Bruce. All three of those guys can be gotten out without much difficulty. So how can you guarrantee that pitchers give Joey something better to swing at? Since we're counting on our core to step up this year, the answer is, nothing. Hopefully, if Hamilton gets on and swipes a base, Joey will be more tempted to get him home rather than taking the walk.
-Bullpen. It's still banged up and under performing. Marshall may not be at 100%, Masset has been out forever, Ondrusek was a mediocre bust last season, and I thought Parra was overrated. We need another good arm in the pen.
-Chapman. There's talk of letting him start, and if Bailey doesn't re-sign, then there's a good chance that Chapman may be forced to start. He would prefer to close, but we have Broxton as a backup closer. I don't think that Chapman would be a good starter at all. He relies on his fastball too much, and seldom uses his changeup. I don't know what other pitches he knows, but Aroldis doesn't have the familiarity of his command to throw different types of pitches with control. Plus, having to go long into games, he can't throw these 100 mph rockets to the plate anymore. He'll have to lower the velocity to save his arm. He may have to bring it down to the low 90s, which isn't bad, but when you have little else up your sleeve and an overreliability on that fastball, it won't take opposing teams to figure out how to clobber you.
-Cueto. He's a very good pitcher, but he's prone to injury. How many starts can he give us this season? If he goes on the DL, then our rotation will definitely take a hit. In the event that Johnny gets hurt, and Arroyo and Bailey don't return and Cingrani doesn't go deep into games, we may have one spectacularly shitty rotation. Plus a weaker, overworked bullpen. We need Cueto badly because he's the lynchpin in the Reds having a decent season. Without him, there's numerous questions.
-Cozart and Frazier. This will be their third season in the bigs. Last season, Cozart his .254 and Frazier .234. Factor in Mesoraco's .238 BA, and you have 3 guys who have problems getting that crucial hit. Will Cozart and Frazier improve and redeem themselves in their third season, or keep on whiffling balls at the plate? It's not like we can count on Bruce and Ludwick to hit a whole lot higher. If Hamilton fails to adjust to big league hitting, it leaves only Votto and Phillips to hit above .270. Any decent pitcher can have their way with us when 7 out of 9 of your starting lineup hit below average at the plate.
Overall, that's a lot of questions for me. A lot of uncertainty. I hope for the absolute best, but I wouldn't be surprised if a fire sale happens at the trade deadline.
