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Thumbtack
Georgia Institute of Technology
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisMy latest Substack post is for all of us upgrading our craft now that we have tools like Claude Code. I share techniques and lessons from the first three data projects where I used it: a Python-based rating algorithm, a qualitative research report, and a SQL-based analysis tool. The variety was intentional, to find patterns that generalize and others that don’t. If you haven’t learned a tool like Claude Code yet, it’s time. Start here: https://lnkd.in/enDEGWtc
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisAt Thumbtack we have three open roles in Applied Science roles and another in ML Infrastructure. Please consider applying, or reach out to me to learn more. We work remotely and hire across the US and Canada. If you join us, you'll work on complex and fast-moving ML projects alongside an incredible group of cross-functional colleagues. Thumbtack has big ambitions, and that means everyone here has a large opportunity for impact, responsibility, and skill growth. https://lnkd.in/gvU4qQ2F https://lnkd.in/gJAPdTbf https://lnkd.in/g7TRVqTd https://lnkd.in/gtt3ZMcX
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisCome join my team! Reach out if this sounds like you.Richard Demsyn-Jones shared this#JobAlert 📣 We're looking for an applied scientist with deep expertise in machine learning, optimization, building data products and statistics. As part of a small product team, you’ll have full ownership over your domain. If you’re someone who dreams big and executes well, you could be right fit for this virtual-first role. Check out the full job description and apply at: https://lnkd.in/gY34Cn_J. #AppliedScience #Hiring #RemoteJobs
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisCome join my team! We're looking for candidates experienced with building ML models for search and other consumer-facing surfaces, particularly with experience using modern LLMs. You'll work with amazing colleagues, and we work remotely from both the US and Canada.
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisHere's an insightful and useful blog post about analyzing Python's garbage collection.Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisAt Thumbtack, we use machine learning to help consumers find pros for home projects or for recommending home service categories, like plumbing or house cleaning. Staff Software Engineer, Oleksandr Pryimak (he/him), explains how to measure Python garbage collection in production and how he attributes garbage collection delays to latency changes in the Python environment. Read his blog here: https://lnkd.in/eZwNUXZJ #Engineering #Thumbtack #Python
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisCome work with me at Thumbtack! We're hiring an applied scientist on my team, to design and implement algorithms and ML models in pricing. You'll face challenging problems in a dynamic and rapidly changing marketplace. We work remotely, hiring from many locations in the US and Canada. If this sounds like a good fit for you, please apply through the listing on our careers page or reach out if you need to know more. https://lnkd.in/gNTvxjHz
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisAfter starting my ML blog with a few posts on sampling, my last two have been a breezy tour through modeling position bias in ranking. It's a key problem for search engines and recommendation systems, and in those posts I show demos and share some hard-earned lessons. https://lnkd.in/gWnVtqia https://lnkd.in/gfTNt6rk. Sign up at https://lnkd.in/gp3T8yUF to get posts by email as I publish them. Wishing you all the best over the holidays!
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisToday I released the second post for my new blog. Sticking with the theme of samples for ML models, this one is titled "When more sample leads to worse models". It's a light read on how to pick a window range for time-based samples. Give it a read: https://lnkd.in/gEeMPS4H. Thanks!
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Richard Demsyn-Jones shared thisI've started a new technical blog, Simplicity is SOTA. See my first post, "Balanced samples are good, balancing samples is bad" (https://lnkd.in/gAUy5Hax). If you enjoy it, please subscribe!Balanced samples are good, balancing samples is badBalanced samples are good, balancing samples is bad
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisI’m excited to share that I’m re-joining RBC to lead Data Science, Analytics, and Innovation within the AI and Conversational Banking team! It is an incredible opportunity during such a transformational time for the bank, and I’m looking forward to working with a phenomenal team to drive the next generation of AI-powered banking experiences. As I start this next chapter, I want to express my deepest gratitude to my colleagues at TransUnion. It has been a privilege to spend the last six years working alongside some truly amazing people. I'm grateful for the opportunities I had to take on multiple challenging roles that helped me grow both personally and professionally. Thank you to everyone who made my time there so memorable. Looking forward to staying connected!
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisAfter 9 of the most amazing, intense years, I said goodbye to my incredible team and friends at Thumbtack. I'm so grateful for the support, investment and opportunities I had while at Thumbtack. A huge THANK YOU to Jake Langan Larry Roseman and Marco Zappacosta for showing me what thoughtful, kind and intentional leaders look like. Looking forward to continuing to learn and grow as the Corporate Controller at LeanData. Let's go!
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisAfter a dive into engineering management, I'm going back to building at Forus! It’s a really exciting time to be building, and I’m thrilled to be back on the ground, closer to the systems that reach our customers. Today, Forus is coming out of stealth with $160M in funding from Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, Accel, Bain Capital Ventures, Redpoint, BoxGroup, and Pear VC. From my first conversation with the team, two things stood out: the ambition of the mission, and the caliber of the people working on it. It’s been so impressive to watch everyone exercise high ownership, detailing a long-term vision in one minute & diving deep into the intricacies of prior-authorizations in the next. Interested in joining the rocket ship? We’re hiring @ forus.com/companyRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisToday, we are introducing Forus (formerly Tandem) and announcing $160M raised to build the foundation for modern medicine. Science should be the only limit to medicine. Today it isn't. Drug discovery is moving faster, but the system that turns it into real-world treatment isn't. Forus is building the AI-powered network that connects doctors, pharmacies, payers, and biopharma to bring new science to patients. Forus is a generational opportunity to rethink how new medicines reach society. Thousands of medical practices and health systems across all 50 states use Forus today, supporting patients in nearly 80% of U.S. zip codes – all driven by word of mouth. Five of the top 10 global biopharma companies are already working with us. We are working to unlock an order of magnitude more medicine for society. Our team is about 100 engineers and operators in New York, and we're looking for high-horsepower, high-throughput people whose ambition matches that goal. Backed by Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, Accel, Bain Capital Ventures (BCV), Redpoint, BoxGroup, and Pear VC. Join us: forus.com/company Read more: https://lnkd.in/egMix9ms
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisI spoke with the The Wall Street Journal on the data and trends I’m seeing at Crimson Education when it comes to college admissions waitlist decisions! There’s a lot of anxiety and misinformation that comes with families trying to get off waitlists, so I’m glad Roshan Fernandez from the WSJ is sharing the hard data and our perspective on what’s really going on behind closed doors in admissions offices.
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisAI is changing how people get things done. But moving fast only matters if you can trust what you’re building. 🛠️ At Thumbtack, we’re weaving AI into real customer and pro experiences, from helping homeowners describe what they need to explaining which pros are the right fit and why. In our latest engineering post, Shishir Dash, Ph.D., Director of Applied Science, and Teja Venkat K., Senior Applied Scientist, share how we evaluate these systems at scale, focusing on reliability, accuracy, and safety in production. https://lnkd.in/gzvzz6s4
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked this4,125 days. That's how long I spent at Google. I counted. When you leave a place that shaped you that fundamentally, you want the number to be precise. As a kid growing up in the Bay Area, working at Google was my dream from the moment I realized becoming Batman wasn't a viable career path. And somehow, the reality still exceeded the dream. We pioneered ML-based fraud detection at scale, built anti-phishing and anti-malware systems protecting billions of users, and helped make entire ecosystems and the world safer. Every one of those things was only possible because of the brilliant, curious, and kind people who surrounded me. So, thank you to each one of you that's been a part of this journey. So why leave? Because I see what's coming. AI agents are transforming how enterprises operate, and the security model hasn't caught up. I've spent my career solving emerging security problems at scale, and the next set of those problems lives outside any one company's walls. I'm building something new with some of my favorite people, and I haven't been this excited since Day 1 as a Noogler. My wife says I've smiled more these last few months than in the last few years. She's not wrong. For now, I'm at an accelerator in San Francisco for the next 12 weeks, building the security and trust infrastructure that enterprise AI agents don't have yet. If you know someone deploying agents in enterprise who's hitting that gap, I want to build this for them and with them. And if you know engineers or contract designers who've built incredible security tools and want in early on something worth building, send them my way. Eleven years of "we" at Google taught me one thing above all else: the right people are everything. And now, I'm building that next "we." :)
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisOur work investigating the role of cross-lingual alignment in Multilingual LLMs has been accepted at EACL 2026! 🎉 LLMs trained mostly on English can somehow handle other languages — but how? We investigated whether this works because models internally align non-English representations to English, and whether that alignment actually drives correct predictions. We introduced DALI (Discriminative Alignment Index) to measure cross-lingual alignment at the individual instance level across 24 languages and three NLU tasks. Here's what we found: - Incorrect predictions in non-English languages are strongly associated with lower representation alignment with English, specifically in the model's middle layers - Through activation patching, we showed that you can actually fix incorrect non-English predictions by patching in the parallel English activations from those middle layers Big thanks to HyoJung Han, Sarah Wiegreffe, and Marine Carpuat for making this possible! While I would have loved to attend the conference in Rabat, I'm thankful that EACL allows virtual participation - it means that I can present my work to the community while I am home taking care of my newborn 😊 Paper: https://lnkd.in/ezEfz3fQCan you map it to English? The Role of Cross-Lingual Alignment in the Multilingual Performance of LLMsCan you map it to English? The Role of Cross-Lingual Alignment in the Multilingual Performance of LLMs
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Richard Demsyn-Jones liked thisRichard Demsyn-Jones liked thisAfter taking several weeks to decompress and think about my “what next?”, I guess it’s time to share that, after nearly 7 years at Thumbtack, this incredible chapter of my career has come to a close. I'm sitting with a ton of gratitude for what the past 7 years have brought, both personally and professionally. I’ve learned so much and have grown in ways I never could have imagined. I got to do some genuinely big—even once-in-a-lifetime—work: building TT's first internal comms function, launching new company values and mission, reimagining how we worked during COVID and then helping to build out a future-of-work strategy to support a permanent move to virtual-first work, huge product launches, strategy pivots, Camp Thumbtack, Pro Summits, multiple re-orgs (just not the one that hit me…oof 😆), and so much more. But when I was saying my goodbyes, very few of those projects are what people shared with me as my greatest impact. What filled my Slack, and honestly, brought lots of happy tears, were truly humbling notes about human and cultural impact. Notes that I brought calm to stressful situations, that I helped shape how some think differently about work, that I made them feel like they belonged, and that I brought humanity and compassion to my work and to the company as a whole. I am so glad that I was able to spend part of my career somewhere that I could bring my true self to work and show that you can climb much higher helping one another and working as a team than you ever will by yourself. This is what I want to carry forward more than anything. I'm now looking for my next opportunity in internal communications/employee engagement, ideally a leadership role somewhere where culture, belonging, and the employee experience matter. Where these things are just as important as a strong long-term business strategy, and they go hand in hand. Somewhere that the mission is always front and center and where company values guide strategy and come to life at all levels across the org, no matter what. If that sounds like somewhere you work, or you know someone building that kind of company culture, I'd love to connect. 🙏 I’d be remiss not to thank the incredible Comms team Susie Decker, Brooke Beiermann, Kait Guteniak, Nadia Stuart, Gina Balistreri, Laura Arrubla Toro who were such an important part of this journey and who helped me learn and grow daily. I know that they are going to continue doing amazing things, because they always have. And the leaders who mentored and inspired me are many, but a huge shout out to Jelena Djordjevic for finding me 7 years ago to start me on my Thumbtack journey, and to Marco, who has built a truly great company and is one of the most sincere, truly people-first leaders I’ve had the opportunity to support. Thank you for trusting me to build something at Thumbtack of which I am very proud. Farewell, Thumbtack. Hello,....???
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Publications
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Misadventures in Monte Carlo
Journal of Sports Analytics
See publicationEstimating probability is the very core of forecasting. Increasing computing power has enabled researchers to design highly intractable probability models, such that model results are identified through the Monte Carlo method of repeated stochastic simulation. However, confidence in the Monte Carlo identification of the model can be mistaken for accuracy in the underlying model itself. This paper describes simulations in a problem space of topical interest: basketball season forecasting. Monte…
Estimating probability is the very core of forecasting. Increasing computing power has enabled researchers to design highly intractable probability models, such that model results are identified through the Monte Carlo method of repeated stochastic simulation. However, confidence in the Monte Carlo identification of the model can be mistaken for accuracy in the underlying model itself. This paper describes simulations in a problem space of topical interest: basketball season forecasting. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in sports forecasting, since the multitude of possibilities makes direct calculation of playoff probabilities infeasible. Error correlation across games requires due care, as demonstrated with a realistic multilevel basketball model, similar to some in use today. The model is built separately for each of 20 NBA seasons, modeling team strength as a composition of player strength and player allocation of minutes, while also incorporating team persistent effects. Each season is evaluated out-of-time, collectively demonstrating systematic and substantial overconfidence in playoff probabilities, which can be eliminated by incorporating error correlation. This paper focuses on clarifying the use of Monte Carlo simulations for probability calculations in sports.
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Dmitry Shkolnik
Instacart • 2K followers
CANSIM (aka 'NDM') is Canada's socio-economic data repository. Basically FRED + BLS + Census Bureau and everything else assembled into a gigantic data cube. There are something like 60k+ tables. StatCan covers a handful at a time in The Daily, but it's impossible to document every update and release across all these series. But what if the marginal cost of coverage was (nearly) zero? The D-AI-LY is an autonomous harness that trawls CANSIM, checking for recently updated or otherwise neglected data series and generates statistical bulletins with visualizations, metadata, and reproducible code (in English and French). As with everyone's holiday projects, it was built with Claude Code, but specifically I wanted to learn how to build custom `SKILL md` files and how to be more deliberate and thoughtful with data provenance and tracking to reduce data errors and hallucination. There are three detailed custom skills that guide data retrieval, generation, and publishing. Skills are an improvement on prompting because they allow you to essentially deeply fine-tune instructions with guided examples without needing to explicitly put that detail into a prompt -- and because of their progressive disclosure, they save context space until the skill is directly invoked by Claude. This allows you to get very specific in your instructions, which is crucial for a system that generates hundreds of articles in a consistent and deliberate visual and narrative style. The most interesting challenge was overcoming persistent and insidious data errors and hallucinations. My approach was to simultaneously layer: 1. SKILL files to carefully fine tune instructions, expectations, skepticism and reasoning 2. Giving CC access to and forcing reliance on specialized tools like the cansim R package 3. Over-engineered data provenance tracking to trace each data point While obviously a toy system, overall I'm pretty happy with the result and it was easy to generate hundreds of these bulletins at scale. Moreover, it's clear to me that SKILLS are the next big thing everyone will get hyped over. SKILLS allow for externalization and commodification of nuanced expertise and I assume we'll start to see some kind of marketplace economy develop around them soon. I wrote up a post describing the SKILLS setup in a lot more detail and another one about the challenge of fighting fake data. Links in comment below. Please let me know what you think!
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Unravel Data
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