|
|
| |
|
Mass shooting in Mineapolis: August 27, 2025
| |
New House members gun control/gun rights legislation
On Aug. 27, a mass shooting killed two children, and injured 18 others, at a Minneapolis Catholic School. After mass shootings, there is a call for new legislation. We survey past state legislation: addressing mass shootings has been an active topic across dozens of states for decades. Generally, the parties believe:
- Democrats support fewer guns via new restrictions on the most deadly or untraceable weapons.
- Republicans support more guns in the hands of good guys, as defense against guns in the hands of bad guys.
However, look at the party affiiliations below for numerous exceptions among both Democrats and Republicans -- indicating that these are "votes of conscience" much more than partisan votes.
OnTheIssues digs up past state legislative voting records when covering new candidates -- all of the records below are for newly-seated U.S. House members or Senate/Governor candidates in the previous election cycle.
OnTheIssues supports non-publication of the mass shooter's name, since one of the stated goals of the Minneapolis shooter was notoriety.
|
Source: State Legislation.
|
|
Sunday Talk Shows: July 20 - Aug. 10, 2025
| |
|
OnTheIssues excerpts the Sunday pundit shows as candidates prepare for the 2026 Senate and Gubernatorial races, as well as some 2025 Mayoral raceas and Cabinet members.
Currently, five separate "talking head" programs appear on five different TV stations every Sunday morning.
Recent sample excerpts below, for all five shows, citing their respective interviewing pundits and each pundit's political affiliation:
- ABC This Week: 9 AM - 10 AM EST: (George Stephanopoulos & Martha Raddatz; liberal)
- CNN "State of the Union": 9 AM - 1 PM EST: (Dana Bash & Jake Tapper; moderate liberal)
- Fox News Sunday: 9 AM EST; plus other pundit shows: (Shannon Bream & Sean Hannity; conservative)
- NBC Meet the Press: 9 AM EST; rebroadcast 4 AM Monday: (Kristen Welker; moderate)
- CBS Face the Nation: 10:30 AM - 11:30 AM EST(Margaret Brennan; moderate)
|
|
Democrat interviews |
|
|
|
|
Republican interviews |
|
|
|
Source: See additional Gubernatorial races and Cabinet members.
|
|
Elon Musk breaks with Trump: June 28-July 20, 2025
| |
Issue coverage of Musk and The America Party (if it forms)
Elon Musk has entered electoral politics, so OnTheIssues.org will now cover his issue stances.
A rough timeline of the "Trump-Musk fued" and the birth of the America Party:
- Jan. 20: Appointed head of DOGE, Department of Government Efficiency
- May 30: Musk formally leaves DOGE to return to CEO role.
- June 5: Musk proposes "The America Party" targeting swing districts.
- June 28: Musk criticizes the "Big Beautiful Bill," Trump's landmark accomplishment.
- July 1: Musk offers to finance re-election campaign Rep. Thomas Massie who opposed the BBB.
- July 4: Trump considers deporting Musk (who was born in South Africa but is a naturalized U.S. citizen)
- July 20: Bloomberg News reports that "Tesla, SpaceX and xAI are struggling to deal with the fallout from Musk's Trump feud"
- Elon Musk sometimes agrees with Trump on the issues, and sometimes disagrees; a sampling:
Issues where Elon Musk disagrees with Donald Trump:
- New York Sun: I just don't want America to go bankrupt
- Politico: Defends H-1B program bringing in high-skilled immigrants
- Vox.com: Opposed Trump pulling out of Paris climate agreement
- The Mercury News Supported reforming cannabis criminal penalties
- Fox News: Opposed bill raising taxes on new wind and solar projects
|
Issues where Elon Musk agrees with Donald Trump:
|
|
Source: Full coverage of the Elon Musk's issue stances.
|
|
Democratic primary for NYC Mayor: June 14 - 24, 2025
| |
General election for NYC Mayor cmoing November 4
The Democratic primary for NYC mayor will take place on June 24 (early voting began on June 14).
There is no Republican primary for mayor because only one candidate remained on the ballot (there is a Republican primary for City Council).
The Democratic primary will be decided by "ranked choice voting":
each voter ranks up to five candidates on a scale from 1 to 5; the vote transfers to the next-ranked candidate as each candidate is knocked out of the race.
- Andrew Cuomo (D): The former Cabinet Secretary resigned as Governor after a scandal in 2021. This mayoral race is his attempt at a comeback after his resignation.
- Zohran Mamdani (D): Member of the State Legislature and self-defined as "Pro-Palestinian" and "anti-Zionism", but claims he is not anti-Semitic.
- Curtis Sliwa (R): The founder of the Guardian Angels, an NYC vigilante group, was nominated as the Republican nominee (for the November election) when the other contenders withdrew.
- Eric Adams (I): The incumbent mayor was elected as a Democrat in 2021, but switched to Independent to avoid the Democratic primary and go straight to the November election.
|
Source: mayoral contenders issue coverage.
|
|
Upcoming Gubernatorial and Mayoral Primaries: May 31, 2025
| |
Only two states hold gubernatorial primaris in odd-numbered years (NJ and VA) -- all major candidates linked below.
Many cities hold mayoral races in odd-numbered years -- we cover thre below (NYC, Jersey City, and Oakland CA)
|
Democratic Races |
New Jersey Governor (D)
Virginia Governor (D)
Democratic June 17 primary cancelled; general election Nov. 4:
- Abigail Spanberger, U.S.Rep., VA-7 (2019-2024); Dem. nominee 2025
- Levar Stoney, VA Secretary of the Commonwealth (2014-2016);
(withdrew to run for Lt. Gov.)
NYC Mayor (D)
Democratic primary June 24, 2025:
- Adrienne Adams, speaker of the City Council
- Andrew Cuomo, former governor of New York, 2011-2021.
- Brad Lander, city comptroller since 2022.
- Zohran Mamdani, state Assemblyman District 36
- Zellnor Myrie, state Senator District 20
- Jessica Ramos, state Senator District 13
- Scott Stringer city comptroller, 2014-2022; candidate for mayor 2021
Oakland CA Mayor (D winner)
Non-partisan special election April 14, 2025:
- Barbara Lee, U.S.Rep CA-12 (1998-2025)
- Loren Taylor, Oakland City Council (2019-2023), lost general election
- Sheng Thao, Oakland Mayor, lost recall election Nov. 5, 2024
|
|
|
Republican Races |
New Jersey Governor (R)
Republican primary June 10, 2025:
- Jon Bramnick, State Senator (2022-present); Assembly Minority Leader (2012-2022)
 Jack Ciattarelli, State Assemblyman (2011-2018), nominee for governor (2021)
- Edward Durr, State Senator 3rd district (2022-2024); withdrew and endorsed Bill Spadea
- Mario Kranjac, former mayor of Englewood Cliffs (2016-2024)
- Bill Spadea, nominee for NJ-12 congressional district in 2004
Virginia Governor (R)
Republican June 17 primary cancelled; general election Nov. 4:
- Winsome Earle-Sears, Lt. Gov. since 2022; GOP nominee 2025
- Amanda Chase, State Senate District 11 (2016-2023); failed to make ballot
- Dave LaRock, House of Delegates District 33 (2014-2023); failed to make ballot
- Denver Riggleman, U.S.Rep. (R-VA-5); exploratory committee as Independent
- Merle Rutledge, freelance investigative reporter; failed to make ballot
- Glenn Youngkin, Incumbent Governor , (2022-2025), term-limited
NYC Mayor (R) and (I)
Republican June 24 primary cancelled; general election Nov. 4:
- Eric Adams, incumbent Democratic mayor running as an independent
- Jim Walden, Independent; Former assistant U.S. Attorney
- Curtis Sliwa, Republican; CEO of the Guardian Angels
Jersey City Mayor (Non-partisan)
Non-partisan general election Nov. 4:
- Mussab Ali, former president of the Jersey City Board of Education
- Bill O'Dea, Hudson County commissioner (since 1997)
- Jim McGreevey, former N.J. Governor (2002-2004)
- James Solomon, city councilor (since 2017)
- Joyce Watterman, president of the Jersey City Council (since 2023)
|
|
Source: See additional Gubernatorial races and Mayoral races .
|
|
State of the State Speeches: March - April 2025
| |
Excerpts from Governor's late State of the State addresses
| Governors' State of the State addresses finish up in March and April.
As with the early SOTS round, we highlight differences between the "left" and "right" stances on key issues -- with Democrat-vs-Republican indicated whether they're on the left or the right, and a non-partisan concluding set of quotes....
|
| Left-leaning stance | Description of the stances | Right-leaning stance |
|---|
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL, MN): April 23:
Close loopholes the wealthy use to avoid paying taxes |
Cut tax loopholes or cut taxes? |
Gov. Kevin Stitt (R, OK): Feb. 3:
Cut incomes taxes now, follow a path to zero income tax |
|---|
Gov. Mike DeWine (D, OH): March 12:
Encourage employers to hire ex-offenders after incarceration |
Rehabilitation vs. incarceratrion? |
Gov. Greg Abbott (R, TX): Feb. 2:
Deny bail to violent criminals & illegal immigrants |
|---|
Gov. JB Pritzker (D, IL): Feb. 19:
Authoritarians say blame people who don't look like you |
DEI: Promote it or ban it? |
Gov. Mike Braun (R, IN): Jan. 29:
Replaced political DEI ideology with MEI based on merit |
|---|
Gov. Josh Stein (D, NC): March 12:
We need to put our public dollars toward our public schools |
Fund public schools or fund school choice? |
Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R, AK): Jan. 28:
School choice is public schools, not private schools |
|---|
Gov. Janet Mills (D, ME): Jan. 28:
It's the government's responsibility to prevent gun violence |
More gun laws or more guns? |
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R, FL): March 4:
A Second Amendment summer for the purchases of firearms |
|---|
Gov. Bob Ferguson (D, WA): Jan. 15:
Looking for strategies for protecting reproductive freedom |
Reproductive rights or reproductive alternatives? |
Gov. Mike Kehoe (R, MO): Jan. 28:
Support alternatives to abortion with $4M in new funding |
|---|
Gov. Mark Gordon (R, WY): Jan. 15:
Increase Medicaid funding to providers of OB services |
Increase or cut Medicaid? |
Gov. Tate Reeves (R, MS): Jan. 29:
Now is the worst possible time to expand Medicaid |
|---|
Gov. Josh Shapiro (D, PA): Feb. 4:
Legalized cannabis will bring in $1.3 billion in new revenue |
Focus drug topic on legalization or punishment? |
Gov. Mike Kehoe (R, MO): Jan. 28:
Charge fentanyl dealer with first degree murder if user dies |
|---|
We found one topic on which governors expressed a bipartisan consensus: banning cellphones in schools.
This was deemed an important enough topic to get into at least 13 State of the State addresses that we found
(Janet Mills and JB Pritzker and 7 other governors too, not listed below).
Presumably that means it will become law this year -- certainly at the state level and perhaps at the federal level.
|
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Feb. 26:
Let's pass bipartisan legislation to limit phones in class |
Ban cell phones in school classrooms? |
Gov. Kay Ivey (R, AL): Feb. 5:
Supports a bill to put a ban on cell phones in schools |
|---|
Gov. Matt Meyer (D, DE): April 10:
Work to get cell phones out of classrooms |
Gov. Patrick Morrisey (R, WV): Feb. 12:
Allow schools to ban cell phones in the classroom |
Source: See additional State of the State speeches.
|
|
Pope Francis dies: April 21, 2025
| |
Was the Pope a liberal or a conservative?
| Upon the Pope's death, the press has speculated on whether Pope Francis was liberal or conservative.
OnTheIssues.org has been covering the Pope for years, and has gathered evidence of the Pope on both sides of many issues:
|
| | Left-leaning view: | Right-leaning view: |
| The Pope on abortion: | Women who had abortions can be forgiven in Holy Year | Protecting the unborn is a form of social justice |
| The Pope on crime: | Abolish the death penalty; it precludes rehabilitation | No legalization & no compromise with evil of drug addiction |
| The Pope on divorce: | On marriage: no divorce, but expand rules for annulment | Not ready for married priests, nor female deacons |
| The Pope on gay rights: | If a gay person seeks God, Who am I to judge? | Same-sex unions threaten the family |
On many other issues, however, the Pope is unambiguously left-leaning. Our conclusion overall is that Pope Francis is a Moderate Liberal:
| | The Pope on the Economy: | Trickle-down theories are structurally perverse economics | |
| The Pope on Global Warming: | Future of humanity is at stake with climate change | |
| The Pope on Foreign Policy: | Declaring Jerusalem as Israel's capital destabilizes Mideast | |
| The Pope on Immigration: | Building walls instead of building bridges is not Christian | |
| The Pope on Poverty: | Politicians should be disturbed by the lives of the poor | |
Source: Pope Francis on the issues.
|
|
Canada as the 51st state? April 1, 2025
| |
What happens if President Trump gets his wish?
|
President Trump likes to refer to Canada as "the 51st state." What would Canada joining the Union actually do to American politics? Answer: The Democrats would immediately take control of the House of Representatives, and would be guaranteed the House majority and Speakership until 2032, and probably afterwards too. How come? Well, it's all in the Constitution and U.S. legal history....
Canada's population is just over 40 million, about the same as California's, which entitles Canada to 52 Representatives, the same as California. The number of seats in the House, currently 435, would temporarily increase to 487. The increase would stick until the 2030 decennial census; the 2032 election would reapportion all House seats nationwide, to reduce Canada's seats, and California's seats, to about 46 each, while reducing the number of House seats in dozens of other states.
Seizing the House majority assumes that the majority of Canada's Representatives would join the Democratic caucus. That assumption comes from the makeup of Canada's current House of Commons, which has 126 conservative members and 212 liberal members. Splitting Canada's 52 U.S. House seats in that same ratio means 19 would caucus with the House Republicans, and 33 would caucus with the House Democrats.
The current partisan split in the 435-seat U.S. House is 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats . With the Canadian addition, the 487-seat U.S. House would have 239 Republicans and 248 Democrats. That flips a 5-seat Republican majority to a 9-seat Democratic majority. That sort of systemic majority would be hard to overcome in the elections of 2026, 2028, or 2030.
A Democratic majority in the House means the current Speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) would be replaced by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the current Minority Leader. And all Committee chairs -- currently all Republicans -- would be replaced by Democratic Committee chairs. Those chairs set the agenda in each Committee, and hence decide which bills get heard or not. President Trump's agenda needs the House to introduce and hear bills -- Democrats would then have a powerful blocking mechanism.
Why do we say "Democrats would IMMEDIATELY take control"? Because there would be 52 special elections, in each district of the new state of Canada. After special elections, the winner is seated immediately -- there's no delay until the next January. Each winner would be up for re-election in November 2026, but they would be full members of Congress in the intervening time. Canadians have a strong incentive to hold the 52 special elections as soon as possible after Canada is declared a state -- something like a one-month campaign -- certainly NOT a long delay until 2026.
You can look to history to see how this occurred the last time new states were admitted to the Union -- that's Alaska and Hawaii in 1959. Alaska was admitted to the Union on Jan. 3, 1959, and its first Representative, Ralph Rivers (D-AK), was elected that same day. Hawaii was admitted to the Union on Aug. 21, 1959, and its first Representative, Daniel Inouye (D-HI), was elected that same day. Those Representatives were both re-elected in the November 1960 general election, the only U.S. House election in history to elect 437 members. In 1962, reapportionment from the 1960 census took effect, and the number of Representatives was reduced back to 435, where it has held since.
Astute observers might look at the physical size of the Congressional office buildings, where each of the 535 members of the House and Senate have office space. A sudden increase to 589 members suggests that the campaign slogan of the new Canadian members of Congress might be, "Where would we all sit, eh?"
|
Source: Press coverage of Trump's statement: Fox News,
Arizona Republic,
and Newsweek.
|
State of the Union, March 5, 2205 |
President's Trump's address
to Joint Session of Congress:
|
|
|
Democratic Response, March 5, 2025 |
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI-8)
Democratic Party response:
|
|
|
Source: See additional SOTU excertps and Trump's previous SOTU .
|
|
2025-2026 elections: Feb. 28th, 2025
| |
Early entrants into 2025-2026 races for Governor, Mayor, and Senate
Following are the races we're covering for elections in November 2025, plus some early candidate declarations for 2026:
- 2026 CA Governor: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) vs. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D, L.A.)vs. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D)
- 2025 Oakland CA Mayor: Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA-12) vs. City Councilor Loren Taylor (District 6)
- 2026 KY Senate: Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) vs. Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY-6) vs. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY-4) vs. State Rep. Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D)
- 2026 LA Senate: Governor Bill Cassidy (R, incumbent) vs. State Treasurer John Fleming (R-LA-4)
- 2026 MI Senate: Senator Gary Peters (D, retiring) vs. DOT Secretary / Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D, South Bend) vs. 2022 Gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon (R)
- 2026 MN Senate: Senator Tina Smith (DFL, retirign) vs. 2024 Senate nominee Royce White (R) vs. State Attorney General Keith Ellison (D-MN-5) vs. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan
- 2025 NJ Governor Democratic Primary: Mayor Steven Fulop (D, Jersey City) vs. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ-5) vs. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ-11) vs. Mayor Ras Baraka (D, Newark)
- 2025 NJ Governor Republican Primary: Former State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R) vs. State Sen. Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R)
- 2026 NM Governor: Interior Secretary Deb Haaland vs.
- 2025 NYC NY Mayor: Eric Adams (D, incumbent) vs. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D)
- 2026 OH Governor: CEO Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Former Rep. Tim Ryan (D)
- 2026 PA Governor: Governor Josh Shapiro (D, incumebnt) vs. State Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) vs. 2022 Gubernatorial nominee Ken Krawchuk (L)
- 2025 VA Governor Democratic Primary: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Rep. Bobby Scott (D)
- 2025 VA Governor Republican Primary: State Sen. Amanda Chase (R) vs. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
- 2026 TN Governor: Governor Bill Lee (R, term-limited) vs. Rep. John Rose (R) vs. Former Rep. Jim Cooper (D)
|
Source: Governors, Senators, and Mayoors.
|
|
Early State of the State Speeches: January - February 2025
| |
Excerpts from Governor's early State of the State addresses
| Governors' State of the State addresses take place mostly in January through March.
Here, we highlight differences between the "left" and "right" stances on key issues -- with Democrat-vs-Republican indicated whether they're on the left or the right....
|
| Left-leaning stance | Description of the stances | Right-leaning stance |
|---|
Gov. Jared Polis (D, CO): Jan. 9:
Hope for legal pathways to citizenship for DREAMers |
Legal protection/prosecution of undocumented aliens |
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R, FL): Mar. 4:
I t is now a crime to enter Florida illegally |
|---|
Gov. Maura Healey (D, MA): Jan. 16:
Immigrants who work and pay taxes deserve a path forward |
How to deal with immigrants who are here? |
Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R, NH): Jan. 9:
We need to ban sanctuary policies in our state |
|---|
Gov. Daniel McKee (D, RI): Jan. 15:
Let's finally enact a ban on assault weapons |
Limit or expand gun rights? |
Gov. Kristi Noem (R, SD): Jan. 14:
Defended our Second Amendment more than any other state |
|---|
Gov. Mike Kehoe (R, MO): Jan. 28:
Support alternatives to abortion with $4M in new funding |
Restrictions of alternatives to abortion? |
Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R, NH): Jan. 9:
I will veto any further restrictions to abortion access |
|---|
Gov. Tony Evers (D, WI): Jan. 22:
Will veto any bill that makes Wisconsin less inclusive to our LGBTQ kids |
Transgender and LGBTQ rights |
Gov. Kay Ivey (R, AL): Feb. 5:
There are only two genders: Male and female |
|---|
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Feb. 26:
Let's make the largest housing investment in state history |
Housing affordability and the American Dream |
Gov. Bill Lee (R, IN): Feb. 10:
$60 million Starter Home Revolving Loan Fund |
|---|
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D, NY): Jan. 14:
I'm calling for a sweeping middle-class income tax cut |
Who should get tax cuts? Middle class or everyone? |
Gov. Phil Scott (R, VT): Jan. 9:
I say all the time: we need more taxpayers, not more taxes |
|---|
Gov. Jared Polis (D, CO): Jan. 9:
Allow faith based partners to build housing we need |
Faith-based initiatives |
Gov. Brad Little (R, ID): Jan. 6:
Being an American means freedom; self-reliance; faith in God |
|---|
Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R, AR): Jan. 14:
Divest state resources from Communist China |
Trade war vs. engaging economically with China |
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Feb. 26:
We know saying no to Canada means saying yes to China |
|---|
Gov. Tina Kotek (D, OR): Jan. 13:
The relentless march of climate change tests our resolve |
Energy production vs. global warming |
Gov. Greg Gianforte (R, MT): Jan. 13:
We need to unleash all-of-the-above energy production |
|---|
Gov. Andy Beshear (D, KY): Jan. 8:
Working to prepare our commonwealth for medical cannabis |
Marijuana is still the drug topic of choice, not fentanyl |
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R, VA): Jan. 13:
The dangers of marijuana use continue to grow |
|---|
Source: See additional State of the State speeches.
|
|
119th Congress sworn in: Republicans: Jan. 3rd, 2025
| |
Issue coverage of all new Republican members of U.S. House
|
The Speaker of the House is the first vote after being sworn in; Mike Johnson (R-LA) was re-elected.
The Republicans won the Speakership vote because the Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House of Representatives (and almost all vote along party lines for Speaker).
There are 37 new Democratic members of Congress, and 35 new Republican members of Congress -- in other words, the Democrats gained a couple of seats compared to the 118th Congress.
The Republicans had a majority of Congressional seats larger than the Democratic gains, so the Republicans kept their House majority.
The Republicans also hold a narrow Senate majority of 53-47, having gained net seats in the November 2024 election.
That's called a "trifecta": Republicans hold a majority in both chambers of Congress, plus the presidency.
The majority in each chamber of Congress determine Committee chairs, who then control the agenda of which bills get voted upon.
| | |
Source: Full coverage of the new members of Congress' issue stances.
|
|
119th Congress sworn in: Democrats: Jan. 3rd, 2025
| |
Issue coverage of all new Democratic members of U.S. House
|
Following are all of the new Democratic members of the House of Representatives (Republicans in a separate list).
The Congress convening for the two-year term from Jan. 3, 2025, through Jan. 3, 2027, is known as the 119th Congress.
"New member" means the member was not sworn in for the 118th Congress in January 2023.
Some new members, marked "SPEL" for Special Election, did serve in the 118th Cnogress, but for a partial term.
There will be several special elections in early 2025, for any member who resigns -- that applies to several House members who are nominated to serve in Trump's incoming Cabinet (the list appears below; see Nov. 13).
When members of the House resign, the Governor of their state determines the timing of the special election (within a few months).
When members of the Senate resign, the Governor of their state appoints a replacement to serve in the 119th Congress -- then a special election in November 2026 takes place for the remainder of the 6-year Senate term.
Special elections also apply if a member of Congress resigns for any other reason -- which applies to Matt Gaetz (R-FL-4).
Rep. Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress in December 2024 when Trump nominated him for Attorney General, but Gaetz withdrew under Congressional investigation.
Rep. Gaetz was sworn in to the 119th Congress on January 3, because he was re-elected in November 2024 -- but plans to resign from the 119th Congress also.
OnTheissues will track all of the coming special elections, and Senate appointments, for early 2025, and throughout the 119th Congress.
| | |
Source: Full coverage of the 119th Congress' issue stances.
|
|
Syria Rebellion: December 8th, 2024
| |
Assad regime overthrown in major blow to Iran and Russia
Where do the candidates stand on Syria? The rebellion wasn't part of the 2024 election campaign, but many candidates and incoming Trump Administration officials have offered opinions over the many years of the Syrian Civil War. First some background (with links for more details) then the candidates' views:
- Bashar al-Assad: The President of Syria fled the country on Dec. 8, 2024, when rebels took the capital, Damascus. Assad was in power since 2000, when his father died.
- Syrian Civil War: The Assad regime almost fell in 2014, after three years of civil war. Russia and Iran came to Assad's aid, and have been aiding the Syrian regime ever since. But Russia was busy with the Ukraine war and could not aid Assad in 2024.
- Iran and Hezbollah: Iran aided Assad through "proxies", primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, but Hezbollah was weakened by their involvement in the Israel-Gaza war.
- Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): The lead rebel group is called HTS, which means "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant." HTS was originally an offshoot of Al Qaeda.
- Kurdish and Turkish rebel groups: HTS initiated the 2024 rebellion, but were joined by several other rebel groups. The largest are the Kurds in the east (on the Syria-Iraq border) and Turkish-supported rebels in the north (on the Syria-Turkey border).
- Al-Tanf United States military base:: U.S. troops have been in Syria since 2016; we invaded Syria as part of the Iraq-ISIS-Caliphate war. The U.S. has bombed ISIS sites in Syria, since 2023 and currently continuing. U.S. troops did not otherwise participate in the 2024 rebellion, and President-elect Trump has indicated he wants to keep it that way.
JD VANCE: Trump said "no" when a lot of them wanted a ridiculous war including Syria (Oct 2024)
Kamala HARRIS: US-Iraq partnership role after Defeat ISIS coalition (Feb 2024)
Donald TRUMP: I beat ISIS in literally three months; knocked them out (Jan 2024)
Nikki HALEY: Go hard after Iranian infrastructure in Syria & Iraq (Dec 2023)
Donald TRUMP: Withdrew from Syria, but left soldiers to keep the oil (Feb 2020)
Tulsi GABBARD: End the regime change war in Syria (Oct 2019)
Tulsi GABBARD: Indefinite stay in Syria IS "endless war" (Oct 2019)
Mike HUCKABEE: Eradicate ISIS like you would eradicate any cancer (Jan 2016)
Bernie SANDERS: Work with Russia & Iran to get rid of Assad in Syria (Jan 2016)
Chris CHRISTIE: There'll be no peace in Syria while Assad is in charge (Jan 2016)
Marco RUBIO: Boots on ground in Syria; coordinate with Kurds (Nov 2015)
Mike HUCKABEE: We are at war with radical Islam (Nov 2015)
Kristi NOEM: Aid the Syrian opposition with training & equipment (Sep 2014)
Marco RUBIO: Equip and train non-jihadist Syrians to topple Assad (Aug 2013)
Joe BIDEN: Syria's Assad must go, but carefully vet who gets aid (Mar 2013)
Joe BIDEN: Iran is isolated, and will be more so when Syria falls (Dec 2011)
|
Source: full collection of War & Peace issue stances.
|
|
Incoming 2025 Cabinet: Nov. 13th-23rd, 2024
| |
Nominees for Cabinet, Sub-cabinet, and Ambassadors
President-Elect Trump's appointment announcements, and our issue coverage (for those with links)
Source: See additional Cabinet coverage.
|
|
Presidential Prediction: October 27th, 2024
| |
We predict Kamala Harris will win the Electoral Vote 275-263, but Trump may win the "Judicial Vote"
We predict a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we make no prediction about the actual outcome of the presidential election, because that will be up to the "judicial vote," which has been the most relevant factor in the presidential election since "Bush v. Gore" in 2000. We base this prediction on the actions of the Harris/Walz campaign (which has focused on winning the electoral vote) compared to the actions of the Trump/Vance campaign (which has focused on minimizing their popular vote loss, and on winning the judicial vote)....
The Harris/Walz campaign has focused on winning the electoral vote by reaching out beyond voters who are already likely to vote Democratic on Nov. 5:
- Kamala has appeared on numerous podcasts that reach young voters, and other groups who have traditionally low voter turnout rates. The Democrats are counting on young voters preferring Democrats, or at least preferring the candidate who has reached out to them.
- The Harris/Walz campaign has reached out to minority voters, through proxies such as Barack Obama. Minority voters -- especially immigrants -- have been targeted by Republican "voter suppression" efforts, and the Democratic campaign strategy is to overwhelm those with voter volume.
- Kamala has reached out to Republican "Never-Trumpers" extensively -- by emphasizing moderate stances on issues such as Israel and fracking -- and by making joint media appearances with Liz Cheney (R-WY) and others. This group includes millions of what were called "Double-Haters" in the Trump-Biden race -- the Democrats' goal is that they say "Kamala is acceptable because she'll support democracy even though I disagree with her on most other issues."
- Each of the above strategies seems likely to gain millions of votes, and we predict that will make a decisive difference in several swing states, where both Harris and Walz have focused their attention.
The Trump/Vance campaign has focused on turnout from their core supporters; maximizing their popular vote; and preparing for the "judicial vote" after November 5:
- Trump and Vance have emphasized pro-isolationist and anti-immigrant policies in all campaign appearances -- those are popular stances among MAGA groups, and generally have majority support in all but the most liberal "blue" states. This contrasts the Harris/Walz strategy of emphasizing moderate stances. Keeping MAGA supporters involved doesn't add to votes (because they would have voted Republican anyway) but does prepare for thousands of supporters to show up for post-election events such as the January 6, 2025 certification count.
- Trump has made numerous campaign appearances in New York and California and other "blue states." Why Trump follows this counter-intuitive strategy is obvious from his statements following the 2020 election: Trump noted repeatedly that he got more popular votes (74 million) than any other sitting president -- and challenged many of Biden's 81 million votes. Trump's strategy in 2024 is to reduce the popular vote loss from the 2020 difference of 7 million -- so that he can claim he did better than in 2020, and therefore his supporters should push for a "judicial vote" in his favor.
- The Trump/Vance campaign has invested heavily in preparatory lawsuits on every aspect of voting in every swing state -- and more lawsuits can be expected after November 5. The goal is to apply "lessons learned" from 2021, and question enough swing state certifications so that the Electoral College certification on Jan. 6 2025 goes to a House vote. Trump/Vance will certainly win a House vote because each state gets an equal number of votes, and the majority of states are Republican.
- Even if our electoral vote prediction is accurate, Trump could be elected President by successfully questioning the Electoral certification in enough states to overcome Trump's electoral vote deficit. All of the above strategies focus on Trump/Vance winning the "judicial vote" and the outcome of dozens of lawsuits is so dependent on judges' whims that the outcome cannot be predicted.
|
Source: Graphic created on 270ToWin.com.
|
|
Vice Presidential debate: October 1st, 2024
| |
Governor Tim Walz (MN, Democratic nominee) vs. Senator J.D. Vance (OH, Republican nominee).
Debate hosted by CBS News in New York City
Source: See additional V.P. debate coverage.
|
|
Presidential Debate: September 10th, 2024
| |
Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic nominee, vs. Former President Donald Trump, Republican nominee
Debate hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia
Source: See additional Presidential debate coverage.
|
|
Democratic National Convention: Aug. 19-22, 2024
| |
Sen. Kamala Harris nominated for President; Gov. Tim Walz nominated for Vice President
Source: See additional DNC coverage.
|
|
Vice Presidential Books and Events: July 15th, 2024
| |
Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) nominated as Trump's V.P.
| Books and events with J.D. Vance: | Books and events with Kamala Harris: |
|
| <
Source: See additional coverage of Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance.
|
|
Biden and Trump Books and Events: July 4th, 2024
| |
Book excerpts, book reviews, and event excerpts
| Books by and about Biden: | Books by and about Trump: |
|
| |
|
Source: Project 2025 policy excerpts
|
|
Governor primaries: March 5 - Sept. 10, 2024
| |
Coverage of each governor's race in 11 states
Gubernatorial primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from gubernatorial primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
- DE:
Sept. 3 primary:
Gov. John Carney (D, term-limited);
vs. Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D)
vs. Matt Meyer (D)
vs. State Rep.Mike Ramone (R)
- IN:
May 7 primary:
Gov. Eric Holcomb (R, term-limited);
vs. Jennifer McCormick (D nominee)
vs. Sen. Mike Braun (R nominee)
vs. Suzanne Crouch (R, lost primary)
vs. Eric Doden (R, lost primary)
- MO:
Aug. 6 primary:
Gov. Mike Parson (R, term-limited):
vs. Jay Ashcroft (R)
vs. Bill Eigel (R)
vs. Mike Kehoe (R nominee)
vs. Crystal Quade (D nominee)
- MT:
June 4 primary:
Gov. Greg Gianforte (R nominee)
vs. Ryan Busse (D nominee)
vs. Tanner Smith (R, lost June 4 primary)
- NC:
March 5 primary:
Gov. Roy Cooper (D, term-limited);
vs. Mark Robinson (R nominee)
vs. Josh Stein (D nominee)
vs. Dale Folwell (R, lost March 5 primary)
vs. Michael Morgan (D, lost March 5 primary)
vs. Andy Wells (R,withdrew)
- ND:
June 11 primary:
Gov. Doug Burgum (R, retiring)
vs. U.S.Rep.Kelly Armstrong (R nominee)
vs. State Sen.Merrill Piepkorn (D nominee)
vs. State Rep. Rick Becker (R, withdrew to run for House)
- NH:
Sept. 10 primary:
Gov. Chris Sununu (R, retiring)
vs. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R)
vs. Joyce Craig (D)
vs. Chuck Morse (R)
vs. Cinde Warmington (D)
- UT:
June 25 primary:
Gov. Spencer Cox (R)
vs. State Rep. Phil Lyman (R)
vs. Minority Leader Brian King (D nominee)
- VT:
Aug 13 primary:
Gov. Phil Scott (R incumbent & nominee)
vs. Selectman Peter Duval (D)
vs. Commissioner Esther Charlestin (D nominee)
- WA:
Aug. 6 primary:
Gov. Jay Inslee (D, retiring);
vs. WA Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D nominee)
vs. U.S.Rep.Dave Reichert (R nominee)
vs. State Sen. Mark Mullet (D)
vs. County Chair Semi Bird (R)
vs. Hilary Franz (D, withdrew)
- WV:
May 14 primary:
Gov. Jim Justice (R, term-limited);
vs. WV Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R nominee)
vs. Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D nominee)
vs. WV State Auditor JB McCuskey (R, withdrew)
vs. WV Secretary of State Mac Warner (R, lost May 14 primary)
vs. State Del. Moore Capito (R, lost May 14 primary)
We'll update with the results of each primary by indicating "nominee" for the winners.
Source: VoteMatch Quiz for all Gubernatorial primaries
|
|
Senate primaries: March 5 - Sept. 10, 2024
| |
Coverage of 35 Senate primaries in 33 states
Senate primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from Senate primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
- AZ
July 30 primary:
Kyrsten Sinema(I,incumbent)
vs.Ruben Gallego(D nominee)
vs.Kari Lake(R nominee)
vs.Mark Lamb(R)
- CA
March 5 primary:
Laphonza Butler(D,retiring)
vs.Adam Schiff(D nominee)
vs.Steve Garvey(R nominee)
vs.Gail Lightfoot(Libertarian)
vs.Barbara Lee(D, lost primary)
vs.Katie Porter(D, lost primary)
- CT
Aug. 13 primary:
Chris Murphy(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Matthew Corey(R nominee)
vs.John Flynn(R)
vs.Robert Hyde(I, on ballot)
- DE
Sept. 10 primary:
Tom Carper(D,retiring)
vs.Eric Hansen(R nominee)
vs.Mike Katz(I)
vs.Lisa Blunt Rochester(D nominee)
- FL
Aug. 20 primary:
Rick Scott(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Debbie Mucarsel-Powell(D nominee)
- HI
Aug. 10 primary:
Mazie Hirono(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Bob McDermott(R nominee)
- IN
May 7 primary:
Mike Braun(R,retiring)
vs.Jim Banks(R nominee)
vs.Valerie McCray(D nominee)
vs.Marc Carmichael(D, lost primary)
- MA
Sept. 3 primary:
Elizabeth Warren(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Shiva Ayyadurai(R, withdrew)
vs.John Deaton(R nominee)
- MD
May 14 primary:
Ben Cardin(D,retiring)
vs.Angela Alsobrooks(D nominee)
vs.Gov.Larry Hogan(R nominee)
vs.Robin Ficker(R, lost primary)
vs.David Trone(D, lost primary)
- ME
June 11 primary:
Angus King(I,incumbent)
vs.Demi Kouzounas(R nominee)
vs.David Costello(D nominee)
- MI
Aug. 6 primary:
Debbie Stabenow(D,retiring)
vs.Leslie Love(D)
vs.Peter Meijer(R)
vs.James Craig(R)
vs.Mike Rogers(R nominee)
vs.Elissa Slotkin(D nominee)
- MN
Aug. 13 primary:
Amy Klobuchar(DFL,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Royce White(R nominee)
vs.Steve Carlson(DFL)
- MO
Aug. 6 primary:
Josh Hawley(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Karla May(D)
vs.Lucas Kunce(D nominee)
- MS
Aug. 6/27 primary:
Roger Wicker(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Dan Eubanks(R)
vs.Ty Pinkins(D nominee)
- MT
June 4 primary:
Jon Tester(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Tim Sheehy(R nominee)
vs.Brad Johnson(R,lost primary)
- ND
June 11 primary:
Kevin Cramer(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Katrina Christiansen(D nominee)
- NE
May 14 primary for two races:
Peter Ricketts(R,2-year seat incumbent & nominee)
vs.Preston Love(D nominee)
vs.Deb Fischer(D,6-year seat incumbent & nominee)
vs.Dan Osborn(Independent nominee)
- NJ
June 4 primary:
George Helmy(D,appointee)
vs.Bob Menendez(I,resigned)
vs.Andy Kim(D nominee)
vs.Curtis Bashaw(R nominee)
vs.Tammy Murphy(D,withdrew)
- NM
June 4 primary:
Martin Heinrich(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Nella Domenici(R nominee)
- NV
June 11 primary:
Jacky Rosen(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Sam Brown(R nominee)
vs.Jim Marchant (R, lost primary)
- NY
June 25 primary:
Kirsten Gillibrand(D,incumbent and nominee)
vs.Mike Sapraicone(R nominee)
vs.Josh Eisen(R,withdrew May 1)
- OH
March 19 primary:
Sherrod Brown(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Bernie Moreno(R nominee)
vs.Matt Dolan(R, lost primary)
vs.Frank LaRose(R, lost primary)
- PA
April 23 primary:
Bob Casey(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.David McCormick(R nominee)
- RI
Sept. 10 primary:
Sheldon Whitehouse(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Patricia Morgan(R nominee)
vs.Allen Waters(R,withdrew)
- TN
Aug. 1/31 primary:
Marsha Blackburn(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Gloria Johnson(D nominee)
vs.Marquita Bradshaw(D)
- TX
March 5 primary:
Ted Cruz(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Colin Allred(D nominee)
vs.Roland Gutierrez(D,lost primary)
vs.Carl Sherman(D,lost primary)
- UT
June 25 primary:
Mitt Romney(R,retiring)
vs.John Curtis(R nominee)
vs.Trent Staggs(R, lost primary)
vs.Brad Wilson(R, lost primary)
vs.Caroline Gleich(D nominee)
- VA
June 18 primary:
Tim Kaine(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Hung Cao(R nominee)
vs.Scott Parkinson(R,lost primary)
- VT
Aug. 13 primary:
Bernie Sanders(I,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Gerald Malloy(R nominee)
- WA
Aug. 6 primary:
Maria Cantwell(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Raul Garcia(R nominee)
- WI
Aug. 13 primary:
Tammy Baldwin(D,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Eric Hovde(R nominee)
vs.Phil Anderson(I)
- WV
May 14 primary:
Joe Manchin III(D,retiring)
vs.Glenn Elliott(D nominee)
vs.Jim Justice(R nominee)
vs.Don Blankenship(D,lost primary)
vs.Alex Mooney(R,lost primary)
- WY
Aug. 20 primary:
John Barrasso(R,incumbent & nominee)
vs.Reid Rasner(R)
vs.Scott Morrow(D nominee)
We'll update with the results of each primary by indicating "nominee" for the winners.
Source: VoteMatch Quiz for all Senatorial primaries
|
|
State of the States: Jan. 3 - April 10, 2024
| |
Coverage of each governor's State of the State Address
| Democratic Governors | Republican Governors |
|
|
Source: State of the State speeches for all governors
Reproduction of material from any OnTheIssues.org pages without written permission is
prohibited. Copyright
1999-2025 by Jesse Gordon, OnTheIssues.org , all rights reserved.
OnTheIssues.org 1770 Massachusetts Ave. #630, Cambridge MA 02140
E-mail: [email protected], Jesse Gordon, editor-in-chief
|
