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Economic consequences of the Gujarat earthquake

Profile image of Kavita SenKavita Sen

2001

https://doi.org/10.2307/4410512
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33 pages

Abstract
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This study estimates the economic impact of the Gujarat earthquake, focusing on losses to immovable and movable assets, economic losses due to business interruption, and public sector costs. The paper highlights the importance of assessing casualties, job disruption, and fiscal impacts while noting the challenges in quantifying losses due to inadequate building inventories. It discusses the implications for relief and rehabilitation efforts, offering insights into future disaster management strategies.

Key takeaways
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  1. The Gujarat earthquake resulted in over 18,000 deaths and 166,000 injuries, significantly affecting Kutch district.
  2. Economic losses from the earthquake are estimated at Rs.14,454 crore, with public sector costs and household income losses highlighted.
  3. A lack of building inventory complicates accurate loss estimation, impacting policy and assistance planning.
  4. Reconstruction efforts face fiscal challenges, increasing the state's deficit amidst pre-existing financial distress.
  5. The earthquake's immediate impact on Gujarat's GDP is minimal, with long-term recovery dependent on effective reconstruction policies.
Figures (17)
Table 1. Gujarat January 26, 2001 Earthquake: Comparison of Severity population or GDP of a country can reduce the apparent scale of a disaster in a large country. This can be illustrated with the example of the district of Kutch — a district with a population close to that of Nicaragua — worst affected by the recent quake. While the inherent magnitude of the loss and the tragedy is a given quantum, it looks very different depending on whether the loss to life and income are expressed as a proportion of the population of the district itself, or of Gujarat (the Indian State to which it belongs) or India.
Table 1. Gujarat January 26, 2001 Earthquake: Comparison of Severity population or GDP of a country can reduce the apparent scale of a disaster in a large country. This can be illustrated with the example of the district of Kutch — a district with a population close to that of Nicaragua — worst affected by the recent quake. While the inherent magnitude of the loss and the tragedy is a given quantum, it looks very different depending on whether the loss to life and income are expressed as a proportion of the population of the district itself, or of Gujarat (the Indian State to which it belongs) or India.
1.Projected mid-year population for the year 2000-2001. Source: Report on Earthquake in Gujarat, Government of Gujarat (February 15, 2001), and Census of India, 1991, Gujarat State District Profile, Government of India. Table 2. Gujarat January 26, 2001 Earthquake: Deaths and Injuries
1.Projected mid-year population for the year 2000-2001. Source: Report on Earthquake in Gujarat, Government of Gujarat (February 15, 2001), and Census of India, 1991, Gujarat State District Profile, Government of India. Table 2. Gujarat January 26, 2001 Earthquake: Deaths and Injuries
No information readily exists on the age and gender distribution of the deceased. Fatalities due to a natural disaster have a different pattern than natural deaths. Although victims of a natural disaster, who are old and infants, tend to succumb to their injuries more easily than the adults, yet a disproportionately large number of working adults die from a natural disaster. Imposing the 1991 age and sex structure of the population in the districts as per the last population census, the number of dead children below the age of 15 years works out to as large as 7,065 (Table 3).
No information readily exists on the age and gender distribution of the deceased. Fatalities due to a natural disaster have a different pattern than natural deaths. Although victims of a natural disaster, who are old and infants, tend to succumb to their injuries more easily than the adults, yet a disproportionately large number of working adults die from a natural disaster. Imposing the 1991 age and sex structure of the population in the districts as per the last population census, the number of dead children below the age of 15 years works out to as large as 7,065 (Table 3).
Table 4. Gujarat Earthquake : Preliminary Estimates of Orphans and Widows
Table 4. Gujarat Earthquake : Preliminary Estimates of Orphans and Widows
Using the likely age structure of the deceased as per Table 3, along with the percentage of school going children (obtained from the Statistical Abstract for Gujarat, 1998), the death relief is likely to be Rs.170.17 crore. Out of 1.7 lakh injured, assuming 5 percent i.e., 8336 to be permanently disabled, another 10 per cent or 16637 to be in the category of ‘less than 40 per cent injury’ and 85 per cent in the category of ‘minor injury’, the monetary benefits likely to be accrue to the injured are estimated to be Rs.128.40 crores. The injured coming under permanently disability and ‘less than 40 per cent injury’ are expected to get the benefit for major surgery and minor surgery also. The cash doles to the affected people and relief in lieu of household kits are likely to amount to Rs.168.75 crores and Rs.138.13 crores respectively. '* The injured and the next of kin of the deceased from the earthquake are entitled to two social security and insurance benefits. First, the Government of Gujarat has announced the direct payment of ex- gratia amounts varying between Rs.2,000 and Rs.1,50,000 for the injured and the dead, with a ceiling of Rs.5,00,000 per family (Table 5). These compensations are in addition to the immediate relief of cash doles of Rs.15 per person per day and a one time lump sum Rs 1250 per family for household kits provided to the quake affected families. The doles are for a maximum of five persons per family for fifteen and thirty days in affected and severely affected areas, respectively
Using the likely age structure of the deceased as per Table 3, along with the percentage of school going children (obtained from the Statistical Abstract for Gujarat, 1998), the death relief is likely to be Rs.170.17 crore. Out of 1.7 lakh injured, assuming 5 percent i.e., 8336 to be permanently disabled, another 10 per cent or 16637 to be in the category of ‘less than 40 per cent injury’ and 85 per cent in the category of ‘minor injury’, the monetary benefits likely to be accrue to the injured are estimated to be Rs.128.40 crores. The injured coming under permanently disability and ‘less than 40 per cent injury’ are expected to get the benefit for major surgery and minor surgery also. The cash doles to the affected people and relief in lieu of household kits are likely to amount to Rs.168.75 crores and Rs.138.13 crores respectively. '* The injured and the next of kin of the deceased from the earthquake are entitled to two social security and insurance benefits. First, the Government of Gujarat has announced the direct payment of ex- gratia amounts varying between Rs.2,000 and Rs.1,50,000 for the injured and the dead, with a ceiling of Rs.5,00,000 per family (Table 5). These compensations are in addition to the immediate relief of cash doles of Rs.15 per person per day and a one time lump sum Rs 1250 per family for household kits provided to the quake affected families. The doles are for a maximum of five persons per family for fifteen and thirty days in affected and severely affected areas, respectively
Table 6. Gujarat: Group Accident Insurance Policies taken by the Gujarat Governmen
Table 6. Gujarat: Group Accident Insurance Policies taken by the Gujarat Governmen
Source: Report on Fourth Economic Census 1998, Gujarat, Vol. I & II, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, GoG Table 7: Employment Classified by Economic Activities, 1998
Source: Report on Fourth Economic Census 1998, Gujarat, Vol. I & II, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, GoG Table 7: Employment Classified by Economic Activities, 1998
Table 8 lays out the official damage estimates. But these estimates do suffer from the above mentioned problems and are subject to frequent revisions. Distinguishing between direct asset losses and costs of reconstruction, and with a_ three-way classification of losses among social sector, infrastructure and productive sectors, the Governments estimates have been reworked in the light of assessment by sectoral experts to yield results reported in Table 9. The total loss works out to about Rs.9,900 crore, with reconstruction estimated to cost Rs.10,675 crore.
Table 8 lays out the official damage estimates. But these estimates do suffer from the above mentioned problems and are subject to frequent revisions. Distinguishing between direct asset losses and costs of reconstruction, and with a_ three-way classification of losses among social sector, infrastructure and productive sectors, the Governments estimates have been reworked in the light of assessment by sectoral experts to yield results reported in Table 9. The total loss works out to about Rs.9,900 crore, with reconstruction estimated to cost Rs.10,675 crore.
during 2000-01 because of the earthquake will be no more than Rs. 100-200 crore, which is less than a quarter per cent of GSDP. For 2001-02, the loss of GSDP for Gujarat will be insignificant. Given that Gujarat accounts for only about 7 per cent of the GDP for India, the impact of the quake on the GDP of the country will be insignificant in both years. The stock market reaction to the quake confirms this conclusion (Chart 1).
during 2000-01 because of the earthquake will be no more than Rs. 100-200 crore, which is less than a quarter per cent of GSDP. For 2001-02, the loss of GSDP for Gujarat will be insignificant. Given that Gujarat accounts for only about 7 per cent of the GDP for India, the impact of the quake on the GDP of the country will be insignificant in both years. The stock market reaction to the quake confirms this conclusion (Chart 1).
Mitigation Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1992, p. 114. °° For example, Gujarat Ambuja Cements and Essar Steel. Chart 2: Exchange Rate, Rs per $
Mitigation Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1992, p. 114. °° For example, Gujarat Ambuja Cements and Essar Steel. Chart 2: Exchange Rate, Rs per $
Table 11. Gujarat Earthquake: Anticipated Expenditure on Relief Measure: > The limit for normal WMA is Rs. 243 crore for Gujarat.
Table 11. Gujarat Earthquake: Anticipated Expenditure on Relief Measure: > The limit for normal WMA is Rs. 243 crore for Gujarat.
Table 13. Gujarat January 26 Earthquake: Overall Fiscal Scenario The existing policy of relief and rehabilitation ensures that the government takes responsibility for certain kinds of expenditures. These include immediate relief measures like provision of cash doles, food and medicines, on the one hand and expenditure for restoring basic social and infrastructural services. The commitment on these heads amounts to Rs 4,197.07 crore.*' It is assumed that the whole of the relief expenditure and 11 per cent of the rehabilitation outlay (as proposed in the memorandum of the Government of Gujarat to the Government of India) are spent in the current financial year. Sixty per cent of the rehabilitation outlay is projected to be incurred in 2001-02, with the balance being disbursed in the following year. The impact of these measures, presuming that the necessary finances are obtainable as loans, is to raise the fiscal deficit to Rs 10,031 crore by 2002-03. If a part of the finances is available as international assistance, which the state would get in the standard 70:30 package, the fiscal deficit and the interest cost would be significantly lower. For instance, the assistance announced by the Asian Development Bank to the tune of $500 million would figure in this category. However, with uncertainty about terms and phasing with which this assistance would become available to the Government of Gujarat, this impact has not been incorporated into the projection exercise.
Table 13. Gujarat January 26 Earthquake: Overall Fiscal Scenario The existing policy of relief and rehabilitation ensures that the government takes responsibility for certain kinds of expenditures. These include immediate relief measures like provision of cash doles, food and medicines, on the one hand and expenditure for restoring basic social and infrastructural services. The commitment on these heads amounts to Rs 4,197.07 crore.*' It is assumed that the whole of the relief expenditure and 11 per cent of the rehabilitation outlay (as proposed in the memorandum of the Government of Gujarat to the Government of India) are spent in the current financial year. Sixty per cent of the rehabilitation outlay is projected to be incurred in 2001-02, with the balance being disbursed in the following year. The impact of these measures, presuming that the necessary finances are obtainable as loans, is to raise the fiscal deficit to Rs 10,031 crore by 2002-03. If a part of the finances is available as international assistance, which the state would get in the standard 70:30 package, the fiscal deficit and the interest cost would be significantly lower. For instance, the assistance announced by the Asian Development Bank to the tune of $500 million would figure in this category. However, with uncertainty about terms and phasing with which this assistance would become available to the Government of Gujarat, this impact has not been incorporated into the projection exercise.
Table 14. Financing of the Earthquake Induced Expenditure Putting together the various schemes announced by the Government of Gujarat, the expenditure impact of the earthquake on the expenditures of the State Government, including that on relief and rehabilitation, would amount to Rs. 9,345 crore. A part of the relief expenditure is offset by receipts to the tune of Rs 660 crore from NCCF, PM’s relief fund and CM’s relief fund. The rehabilitation expenditure as committed up to February 20, 2001, amounts to Rs 8,665 crore. Against this, the anticipated receipts from various sources reduce the unfinanced expenditures to Rs 6,645 crore.(Table 14)
Table 14. Financing of the Earthquake Induced Expenditure Putting together the various schemes announced by the Government of Gujarat, the expenditure impact of the earthquake on the expenditures of the State Government, including that on relief and rehabilitation, would amount to Rs. 9,345 crore. A part of the relief expenditure is offset by receipts to the tune of Rs 660 crore from NCCF, PM’s relief fund and CM’s relief fund. The rehabilitation expenditure as committed up to February 20, 2001, amounts to Rs 8,665 crore. Against this, the anticipated receipts from various sources reduce the unfinanced expenditures to Rs 6,645 crore.(Table 14)
* Every district does not have a DCB. There are 18 DCBs, while the number of districts is 25. The DCB n some of the former undivided districts continue to have jurisdiction over parts of the newly forme listricts. For example, the DCBs of Banaskantha and Mehsana have jurisdiction over separate parts of th iewly formed district of Patan. Cooperative Bank (GSCB) all over the State with Rs.5,997 crore in deposits and Rs.3,238 crore in advances. GSCB is the apex institution of all the district cooperative banks (DCB), urban cooperative banks and other cooperative banks. The DCBs are the middle level agencies providing financial support to the cooperatives within their jurisdiction.** At the village level, 7,321 primary agricultural cooperative societies covering single village or a group of villages are working and providing crop production loans to their farmer members. Of the 3.4 million agriculturist khatedars (or people with names on the revenue ledger), about 64 per cent are covered by cooperatives.
* Every district does not have a DCB. There are 18 DCBs, while the number of districts is 25. The DCB n some of the former undivided districts continue to have jurisdiction over parts of the newly forme listricts. For example, the DCBs of Banaskantha and Mehsana have jurisdiction over separate parts of th iewly formed district of Patan. Cooperative Bank (GSCB) all over the State with Rs.5,997 crore in deposits and Rs.3,238 crore in advances. GSCB is the apex institution of all the district cooperative banks (DCB), urban cooperative banks and other cooperative banks. The DCBs are the middle level agencies providing financial support to the cooperatives within their jurisdiction.** At the village level, 7,321 primary agricultural cooperative societies covering single village or a group of villages are working and providing crop production loans to their farmer members. Of the 3.4 million agriculturist khatedars (or people with names on the revenue ledger), about 64 per cent are covered by cooperatives.
Source: “Banking Statistics: Basic Statistical Returns”, Vol. 28, March 1999, RBI, pp. 55-56 for March 1999 and “Banking Statistics: Quarterly Handout - December 1999”, Banking Statistics Division, Department of Statistical Analysis and Computer Services, RBI, p. 32. * Banks being closed on Friday, January 26", a national holiday, followed by a weekend, mitigated the misery to an extent.
Source: “Banking Statistics: Basic Statistical Returns”, Vol. 28, March 1999, RBI, pp. 55-56 for March 1999 and “Banking Statistics: Quarterly Handout - December 1999”, Banking Statistics Division, Department of Statistical Analysis and Computer Services, RBI, p. 32. * Banks being closed on Friday, January 26", a national holiday, followed by a weekend, mitigated the misery to an extent.

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References (1)

  1. Source: "Banking Statistics: Basic Statistical Returns", Vol. 28, March 1999, RBI, pp. 55-56 for March 1999 and "Banking Statistics: Quarterly Handout -December 1999", Banking Statistics Division, Department of Statistical Analysis and Computer Services, RBI, p. 32.

FAQs

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What were the main economic losses due to the Gujarat earthquake?add

The earthquake resulted in an estimated loss of Rs. 14,454 crore to Gujarat's economy, with damaged immovable and movable assets contributing significantly to this figure.

How did the earthquake affect employment in affected regions?add

Approximately 4.88 lakh people are estimated to become unemployed due to direct damages in various industries, with 80% loss anticipated in Kutch district.

What percentage of the casualties were reported in Kutch district?add

Kutch district accounted for 92% of recorded deaths and 82% of injuries from the earthquake.

How did the earthquake impact Gujarat's fiscal accounts?add

The earthquake likely increased Gujarat's fiscal deficit significantly, with relief and recovery measures expected to cost around Rs. 10,031 crore by 2002-03.

What is the expected impact on Gujarat's GDP from the earthquake?add

The earthquake's impact on Gujarat's GSDP is estimated to be about Rs. 2,475 crore, a quarter percent of the state's economy.

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