Continuity and Change in Transnistria’s Foreign Policy after the 2011 Presidential Elections
2012
Abstract
The article examines the external activity of Transnistria, a quasi-state that has been outside of Moldovan control since 1992. The paper presents the policy of the Transnistrian region toward Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Western countries and organizations, as well as other breakaway states like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. The main research question is whether Transnistria’s foreign policy has undergone changes and, more generally, what can be expected in this field following the landmark 2011 presidential elections. Then, Igor Smirnov, Transnistria’s seemingly unshakable leader, unexpectedly failed to be re-elected for his fifth term and was replaced by a young politician, Yevgeniy Shevchuk. The paper concludes that the strategy driving the quasi-state’s external activity has remained unchanged. Primary goals regarding the status of Transnistria—namely keeping the status quo, which means maintaining the de facto independence of the Transnistrian region—and its main external partners are still in place. The exception is that Shevchuk would like to establish positive working relations with Western actors. The most significant change between the departure of Smirnov and the arrival of Shevchuk is a tactical one. While Smirnov’s approach was, in short, confrontational, excessively self-interested, highly politicized, and partially isolationist in its nature, the quasi-state’s foreign policy under the new president has many more positive elements. Shevchuk’s approach is more pragmatic, constructive, cooperative, active, and economized. This stabilizes the situation in the region and gives hope for the activation of the Transnistrian conflict settlement process. Crucially, the new Transnistrian president may not be as entrenched as his predecessor on the topic of reintegration with Moldova. An overwhelming illustration of the international activities of Transnistria, which despite its status as an unrecognized de-facto state, possesses a quite active “foreign policy.” The author manages to show both the dependence and relative autonomy of Tiraspol, which makes his paper an important contribution to the understanding of the real position of Transnistria in international and regional context. Andrey Devyatkov, Tyumen State University, Russia This paper is an obligatory read for all those who consider Transnistria a Russian geopolitical conspiracy. There are more interests at play than that of a proto-imperial Kremlin seeking to keep Moldova in Russia’s fold, and the paper successfully rejects this simplistic, so-called mainstream interpretation. Octavian Milevschi, National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania An interesting and pioneering academic analysis that presents the continuities and differences of Transnistrian external policy under the rule of Igor Smirnov and Yevgeniy Shevchuk. Kálmán Mizsei, former European Union Special Representative for the Republic of Moldova (2007–2011) Not indisputable, but a very interesting article on Transnistrian foreign policy, in which the discourse differs greatly from the traditional Western view on this issue. Nina Shtanski, foreign minister of unrecognized Transnistria
Key takeaways
AI
AI
- Transnistria's foreign policy post-2011 elections remains focused on maintaining de facto independence.
- Under Shevchuk, the policy shifts from confrontation to a more cooperative and constructive approach.
- Shevchuk aims to develop relations with Western actors while retaining close ties with Russia.
- The 5+2 negotiation format includes Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, EU, and US as mediators and observers.
- Transnistria's population is approximately 500,000, with significant Moldovan, Russian, and Ukrainian communities.
References (17)
- See, for example, Il'ya Galinskiy, " 'Kremlevskiye mechtateli' slishkom otkrovenno simpatiziruyut planam po unichtozheniyu Pridnestrov'ya," REG- NUM, 31 May 2011, http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1410863.html (accessed 6 June 2011).
- Dmitriy Trienin, "Opasnost' na Dnestre," Transnistrian Digest, no. 18 (2006): 21-22. Author's interview with Dmitriy Trienin (the deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center), Moscow, 7 November 2007. 27 "Polnaya versiya inauguratsii prezidenta PMR Yevgeniya Shevchuka," 30 December 2012, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mktmdKguT0k&feature =related (accessed 4 January 2012).
- Yevgeniy Shevchuk, "Pridnestrov'ye budet vmeste s Rossiyey," inter- view with Rossiyskiye vesti, 4 January 2012, http://e-shevchuk.livejournal.com /44360.html#cutid1 (accessed 19 January 2012).
- Andrey Safonov, "Transnistria: A Policy of Denial, Containment, and Separation from Moldova," in Moldova: Arena of International Influences, ed. Marcin Kosienkowski and William Schreiber (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2012), 269-71.
- Witold Rodkiewicz, ed., Transnistrian Conflict after 20 Years (Warsaw & Chişinău: Centre for Eastern Studies & IDIS Viitorul, 2011), 5, http:// www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/Transnistrian_Conflict_after_20_Years.pdf (accessed 1 December 2011).
- Safonov, "Transnistria," 269-71.
- Svetlana Gamova, "Tiraspol' beret pauzu," Nezavisimaya gazeta, 1 March 2012, http://www.ng.ru/cis/2012-03-01/2_tiraspol.html (accessed 1 March 2012).
- Irina Ivashkina and Ol'ga Paterova, "Istina v Vene," Kommersant.md, 19 April 2012, http://www.kommersant.md/node/7709 (accessed 21 April 2012). 59 "Pervyy poezd." 2011), and Victor Chirilă (the executive director of The Foreign Policy Asso- ciation of Moldova, Chişinău, 23 November 2011).
- Author's interview with a Western military diplomat Chişinău, August 2007. 67
- Getmanchuk, 89-91.
- Oleg Yelkov, "Rol' SMI vo vneshney politike i formirovanii obraza gosudarstva v mezhdunarodnom massovom soznanii," Diplomaticheskiy vestnik Pridnestrov'ya, no. 3 (2011): 44-48.
- Yevgeniy Shevchuk, interview with Pridnestrov'ye, 15 February 2012, http://president.pmr-gov.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id =3049&Itemid=1 (accessed 20 April, 2012).
- Schreiber's and author's interview with Shevchuk.
- Shevchuk, interview with Pridnestrov'ye.
- Cf. Dmitriy Soin and Vyacheslav Sirik, "Nuzhna li modernizatsiya vneshney politiki PMR?" Tiras.ru, 22 January 2011, http://www.tiras.ru/tema- dnja/22987-nuzhna-li-modernizacija-vneshnejj.html (accessed 7 June 2011).
- Cf. Eugen Revenco, "Tiraspol'-Kishinev: Pochva dlya dialoga est', shagov konkretnykh net," interview with Europa Liberă, 13 February 2012, http://www.europalibera.org/content/article/24483053.html (accessed 20 Feb- ruary 2012);
- Vlad Socor, "Too Early For A Political Investment In Transnis- tria's Shevchuk," Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 March 2012, http://www.jamestown .org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=39117&cHash=5b1e5901a83 ad0aeb1bfead02cecf6e9 (accessed 10 March 2012).
FAQs
AI
How did Transnistria's foreign policy shift after Shevchuk's election in 2011?
The paper reveals that Shevchuk's foreign policy is more pragmatic and cooperative than Smirnov's confrontational approach.
What role does Russia play in Transnistria's survival and international relations?
Transnistria is significantly reliant on Russia for political, economic, and military support, including $150 million in promised assistance for revitalization.
What strategies does Transnistria employ to maintain relations with Ukraine?
Transnistria seeks to establish good-neighborly relations with Ukraine while emphasizing economic cooperation and addressing mutual interests.
What are the main objectives of Transnistria's foreign policy towards Moldova?
Shevchuk's administration aims to strengthen Transnistrian statehood while pursuing socioeconomic cooperation rather than political conflict resolution.
How has the international perception of Transnistria changed under Shevchuk's leadership?
Shevchuk's government is actively working to improve Transnistria's image with Western actors, indicating a desire for constructive bilateral relations.
Marcin Kosienkowski