A slight majority of Wisconsin voters want Democrats to control the state Legislature after the Nov. 5 election, according to a new Wisconsin Watch poll conducted by The MassINC Polling Group and released Monday.
The survey also found strong distrust of state government, with only 24% saying they think Wisconsin state government operates in an open and transparent way, 46% saying it doesn’t and 28% saying they’re unsure.
The survey of 800 likely voters found 51% of respondents would prefer if Democrats controlled the Legislature in January, while 44% prefer Republicans. The seven-point difference was almost outside the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.8%.
Notably, 48% of independent voters said they would prefer if Democrats controlled the statehouse while 42% of independents backed Republicans. Democrats had a significant lead among women, the poll found, 56% to 39%. Republicans had a small advantage among men, 50% to 45%.
The poll asked voters if they would “prefer to see Democrats or Republicans in control of the Wisconsin state legislature after the November elections?” It did not ask about specific races and candidates by name, noted Steve Koczela, president of The MassINC Polling Group.
But the pollsters did weight the results geographically based on expected turnout, Koczela said.
Respondents were also asked about the fairness of the state’s new legislative districts, which were implemented after the liberal majority Wisconsin Supreme Court threw out the state’s old, Republican-gerrymandered maps on a technicality. Those districts — and another similarly gerrymandered set of districts — heavily favored Republicans, helping the GOP maintain large majorities in the Legislature over the past decade.
The new maps were approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. Analyses of the maps showed they could yield narrow Democratic majorities in the Assembly and state Senate in a November election with a strong showing for Democrats statewide, though only half of the Senate seats are up for election this year. Democrats are not expected to have a chance of winning the Senate until 2026.
Among those surveyed, 33% said they believed the new boundaries were more fair, 25% said they were less fair, 13% said they were about the same and 29% didn’t know. There was a sizable partisan split on the question of fairness, with 61% of Democratic respondents saying the new districts were more fair compared to just 9% of Republicans.
Among the issues that mattered the most to voters in determining their vote in legislative races, the economy and jobs led the way (60%). That was followed by the “future of our democracy” (58%), election integrity (52%), ending government gridlock (50%), and access to affordable health care (50%).
Once again there were meaningful differences depending upon party affiliation. Among Republicans, the economy and jobs (69%), election integrity (64%) and ending government gridlock (44%) were the top issues. For Democrats, abortion rights (79%), the future of democracy (76%) and access to affordable health care (73%) were most important.
Independent respondents prioritized the economy and jobs (61%), the future of democracy (58%), election integrity (51%) and ending government gridlock (51%).
The poll was conducted Sept. 12-18. Voters were reached via text message invitation to an online survey and by live telephone interviewers calling landline and cell phones. It was funded by a grant from the Knight Election Hub.
Toplines from the poll can be found here. Crosstabs from the poll can be found here.
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