Nedaa Syria:

After the end of the meeting of the tenth round of the Russian-Turkish-Iranian-brokered Astana, which took place in the city of Sochi, Russia, forecasts and leaks stormed about the secret talks of the tripartite guarantor of the De-escalation Zone agreement in the province of Idleb and in the outskirts, and speculation is focused on giving Russia to Turkey a deadline to
resolve the file of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" to spare the last Strongholds of anti-Assad factions of being attacked, and whether or not Russia would launch a limited operation.

First of all, it must be emphasized that the policies of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" and its attempt to be unique in the management of the Syrian north have caused many problems for HTS it self and for the region in general, not the most recent infighting battles with the other military factions, which cost a lot of blood and resources over a period of more than a year. The flexibility it has shown through the announcement of the disengagement from al-Qaeda and the integration of some factions and ended by facilitating the entry of Turkish forces to deploy observating posts agreed upon according to the path of Astana, and today it is required to take bolder steps related to the establishment of a fusion mechanism with the other components with the removal of problematic characters from the scene, who are listed on the lists of international terrorism or rejected internally and locally. But in the midst of those speculations and leaks, it comes to mind a central question:

Will the problem of Russia end with the solution of the HTS issue?

The Russian objectives in the Syrian north are far from the issue of dissolving or settling a settlement. They are related to the reactivation of the important commercial artery through Damascus-Aleppo, which will help to replenish the regime's treasury with millions of dollars per month of cargo fees flowing from Europe and Turkey to Jordan, Lebanon and the Gulf. No matter how much he invests in the reconstruction process, especially that large blocks of this route extend from Harasta to Rastan under Russian control, and the Russian view is focused on the gate linking the northern and eastern governorates to the Syrian coast, that is the area stretching from Ariha to Jisr Al-Shughour due to the importance of this area through which goods may flow to the coast and its contribution to the softening of the difficult economic conditions experienced by the most important stronghold of the regime.
Moscow, in its negotiations with Ankara, also focuses on the latter's acceptance of the local elections to be held in the coming weeks in Syria. Russia wants the Syrian north not to be excluded because it is in support of the Russian plan for a political solution in Syria, depending on constitutional amendments and holding parliamentary and local elections as well as formation government of national unity without going into the political transition process provided for by the relevant international resolutions, in particular the Geneva Declaration.

So: Why does Russia press Turkey to take over the file of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham?

The Russian interest in pushing Turkey and its allied factions to end the file of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham which force the parties, which Moscow considers to be "enemies" to be involved in a process of depletion that makes it more ready to accept settlements along the lines of other regions. At the same time, Russia wants to spare itself and its allies from Iranian and Syrian militias associated with Assad from paying a bill of confrontation will not be like other areas because of the large numbers of fighters based in the north of Syria, which is estimated at tens of thousands, and they have a different ideology that makes them inclined to zero solutions and confrontation to the end, many of them have left their cities to the north because of the refusal to settle any agreement with neither Russia nor Syrian regime. Thousands of foreign fighters, some of them from surrounding countries of Russia, and it must also be aware of the difficulty of an open confrontation against them.

On the other hand, the portrayal of Turkish movements and factions that have recently formed the "National Liberation Front" as being in the maintenance of Russian interests and the fulfillment of conditions is not accurate reading, where it can be said that both Ankara and the factions forming the new front share a large number of concerns and recognize the importance of threatening with the military action in order to avoid a fierce confrontation because Turkey is afraid of the interactions of the Helsinki summit held between Trump and Putin and the resulting understandings that do not take into account their interests. The talk about the possibility of the participation of the Kurdish protection militias (YPG) associated with the PKK Under the cloak of the regime in the attack on Idlib is just a new obsession should be added to the concerns of Turkey, while the military factions are aware that they will engage in the last battles, where there can not talked about new concessions and withdrawals, especially in light of the violations in the areas of "reconciliations" and campaigns of arrest and revenge make the idea of " settlement "is a kind of committing suicide.

What is needed today in the Syrian north, is not the search for a mechanism to implement the Russian demands, turning the central issue from the risk of losing the last sites of the Syrian revolution to how to solve the file of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham." What is needed is to move forward in unifying the internal front and canceling the various political, intellectual and regional agendas and focus on immunization and secure points of contact with the Iranian militias and mobilize all that can be mobilized for a battle may be coming, and parallel to this path must be working on the withdrawal of Russian pretexts and find a formula that makes the political and internal problems related to Tahrir al-Sham to be ended forever, but not in the way that Moscow is rushing towards of evoking war and battles, of which Russia will be the only winner. This requires further waiving private gains from all sides in favor of preserving the human component and the remaining geographical gains.

Writer   Firas; Taki          Source   Syria; Call