A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit
Abstract
The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.
- Publication:
-
Nature Climate Change
- Pub Date:
- March 2025
- DOI:
- Bibcode:
- 2025NatCC..15..262B