North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years
Abstract
The North Atlantic jet stream impacts North American and European societies and is expected to be influenced by ongoing 21st-century warming. To better contextualize recently observed and model-projected jet stream changes, long-term records are required. We use insights from a state-of-the-art water isotope-enabled climate model and a compilation of ice-core records from Greenland to reconstruct mean annual North Atlantic jet stream changes back to the 8th century CE. Our reconstruction suggests that observed jet stream variations are consistent with natural variations, despite dramatic warming across recent decades. Under unabated future warming, however, a progressive migration of the jet stream northward is projected to render it distinct from natural variability by 2060 CE.
- Publication:
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
- Pub Date:
- September 2021
- DOI:
- Bibcode:
- 2021PNAS..11804105O
- Keywords:
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- North Atlantic;
- jet stream;
- ice core;
- Greenland;
- climate change