Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Sep;102(5):2194-2209.
doi: 10.1111/ssqu.12992. Epub 2021 May 25.

Did Covid-19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

Harold Clarke  1 , Marianne C Stewart  1 , Karl Ho  1
Affiliations

Did Covid-19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

Harold Clarke et al. Soc Sci Q. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

Objective: This article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid-19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election.

Methods: The impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election.

Results: Analyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome.

Conclusion: Before the onset of Covid-19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
The Dynamics of Trump's Presidential Approval Ratings, January 20, 2017–November 2, 2020 Source: Real Clear Politics Presidential Approval Poll Archive
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Unemployment Rate and Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2019–October 2020 Source: Surveys of Consumers University of Michigan and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Database
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Important Issues Facing the Country, October 2020 Source: Cometrends 2020 Pre‐Election Survey
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Trump's Job Approval Rating on Most Important Issues Selected by Survey Respondents Source: Cometrends 2020 Pre‐Election Survey
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Probability of Voting for Trump by Importance of Covid‐19 and Economic Issues, Binomial Probit Model
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
Probability of Voting for Trump by Importance of Covid‐19 Issue, Two‐Group Finite Mixture Model
FIGURE 7
FIGURE 7
Probability of Voting for Trump by Importance of Economy as Issue, Two‐Group Finite Mixture Model
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Abramowitz, Alan I. 2018. The Great Alignment: Race Party Transformation and the Rise of Donald Trump. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
    1. ———. 2021. “It's the Pandemic, Stupid: A Simplified Model for Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 54:52–54.
    1. Burnham, Kenneth P. , and Anderson David R.. 2011. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information‐Theoretic Approach, 2nd ed. New York: Springer‐Verlag.
    1. Campbell, Angus , Converse Philip, Miller Warren, and Stokes Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Willey & Sons.
    1. Clarke, Harold D. , Kornberg Allan, and Scotto Thomas J.. 2009. Making Political Choices: Canada and the United States. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

LinkOut - more resources