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. 2012;6(7):e1730.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001730. Epub 2012 Jul 17.

Fine scale spatiotemporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in children and Aedes aegypti in rural Thai villages

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Fine scale spatiotemporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in children and Aedes aegypti in rural Thai villages

In-Kyu Yoon et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012.

Abstract

Background: Based on spatiotemporal clustering of human dengue virus (DENV) infections, transmission is thought to occur at fine spatiotemporal scales by horizontal transfer of virus between humans and mosquito vectors. To define the dimensions of local transmission and quantify the factors that support it, we examined relationships between infected humans and Aedes aegypti in Thai villages.

Methodology/principal findings: Geographic cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were conducted around DENV-positive and DENV-negative febrile "index" cases (positive and negative clusters, respectively) from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Thailand. Child contacts and Ae. aegypti from cluster houses were assessed for DENV infection. Spatiotemporal, demographic, and entomological parameters were evaluated. In positive clusters, the DENV infection rate among child contacts was 35.3% in index houses, 29.9% in houses within 20 meters, and decreased with distance from the index house to 6.2% in houses 80-100 meters away (p<0.001). Significantly more Ae. aegypti were DENV-infectious (i.e., DENV-positive in head/thorax) in positive clusters (23/1755; 1.3%) than negative clusters (1/1548; 0.1%). In positive clusters, 8.2% of mosquitoes were DENV-infectious in index houses, 4.2% in other houses with DENV-infected children, and 0.4% in houses without infected children (p<0.001). The DENV infection rate in contacts was 47.4% in houses with infectious mosquitoes, 28.7% in other houses in the same cluster, and 10.8% in positive clusters without infectious mosquitoes (p<0.001). Ae. aegypti pupae and adult females were more numerous only in houses containing infectious mosquitoes.

Conclusions/significance: Human and mosquito infections are positively associated at the level of individual houses and neighboring residences. Certain houses with high transmission risk contribute disproportionately to DENV spread to neighboring houses. Small groups of houses with elevated transmission risk are consistent with over-dispersion of transmission (i.e., at a given point in time, people/mosquitoes from a small portion of houses are responsible for the majority of transmission).

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Focal aggregation of DENV-infected child contacts in positive clusters.
Relationship between DENV infection rate and distance from index case house was significant (Chi square, p<0.001). Distance from index case house 0 m: N = 18/51; >0–20 m: N = 20/67; >20–40 m: N = 28/126; >40–60 m: 23/174; >60–80 m: 28/194; >80–100 m: 12/193 (N = Infected Contacts/Enrolled Contacts).
Figure 2
Figure 2. Focal aggregation of DENV-infected child contacts in positive clusters categorized by estimated time of infection.
RD = recent dengue (N = 15); ES = enrollment seroconversion (N = 41); PES = post-enrollment seroconversion (N = 63); day 15 PCR-positive (N = 10).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Focal aggregation of DENV-infectious mosquitoes in positive clusters.
Relationship between proportion of female Ae. aegypti that were DENV-infectious and distance from index case house was significant (Fisher's exact, p<0.001). Distance from index case house 0 m: N = 10/112; >0–20 m: N = 2/85; >20–40 m: N = 4/138; >40–60 m: 1/204; >60–80 m: 2/243; >80–100 m: 0/206 (N = Infectious mosquitoes/Collected mosquitoes).
Figure 4
Figure 4. Mean distance of houses with DENV-infectious mosquitoes to other houses in the same cluster.

References

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