I present a new argument that we are much more likely to be living in a computer simulation than in the ground-level of reality. (Similar arguments can be marshalled for the view that we are more likely to be Boltzmann brains than ordinary people, but I focus on the case of simulations.) I explain how this argument overcomes some objections to Bostrom’s classic argument for the same conclusion. I also consider to what extent the argument depends upon an internalist conception (...) of evidence, and I refute the common line of thought that finding many simulations being run—or running them ourselves—must increase the odds that we are in a simulation. (shrink)

There is now considerable evidence that human sentence processing is expectation based: As people read a sentence, they use their statistical experience with their language to generate predictions about upcoming syntactic structure. This study examines how sentence processing is affected by readers' uncertainty about those expectations. In a self-paced reading study, we use lexical subcategorization distributions to factorially manipulate both the strength of expectations and the uncertainty about them. We compare two types of uncertainty: uncertainty about the verb's complement, (...) reflecting the next prediction step; and uncertainty about the full sentence, reflecting an unbounded number of prediction steps. We find that uncertainty about the full structure, but not about the next step, was a significant predictor of processing difficulty: Greater reduction in uncertainty was correlated with increased reading times. We additionally replicated previously observed effects of expectation violation, orthogonal to the effect of uncertainty. This suggests that both surprisal and uncertainty affect human RTs. We discuss the consequences for theories of sentence comprehension. (shrink)

Jablonka and Ginsburg’s target paper (2022) argues that (a) consciousness is closely tied to goal-directed behavior and an open-ended capacity for learning and adaptation driven by exploration-and-stabilization dynamics; and (b) consciousness has this essential dynamical nature due to its emergence in evolution from the spontaneous exploration-and-stabilization dynamics of animal life, which the authors term vivaciousness. In this commentary, I explore these two claims with relation to two features of experience that are of clear importance to goal-directed behavior both phenomenologically and (...) biologically: (1) the role of probabilistic expectation, and (2) the role of available energy. Applying Jablonka and Ginsburg’s framework, I argue that these two features are substantive and potentially universal examples of consciousness being shaped by biology. (shrink)

Circular economy thinking has become the subject of academic enquiry across several disciplines recently. Yet whilst its technical and business angles are more widely discussed, its philosophical underpinnings and socio-economic implications are insufficiently investigated. In this article, we aim to contribute to their understanding by uncovering the circular economy role in shaping a new vision, highlighting the social and economic dimensions of future imaginaries and the mechanisms that can enable them to bring about change in the social context. We believe (...) that defining the vision that the circular economy is contributing to shape is key to explain its conceptual framework and activities. Drawing on the concept of fictional expectations, we uncover one of the plausible social dimensions inherent to the circular economy thinking thereby opening up a new perspective on the current debate in the circular economy literature wherein authors, by contrast, are emphasising the lack of an explicit social dimension. Fictional expectations are introduced to refer to those imaginaries of the future that can catalyse social action in the present and counteract societal addictions, in which modern society seems to be trapped. We show how a circular economy inspired vision can be instrumental to the emergence of a fictional expectation that can provide therapies to the current societal addiction of wasteful production and consumption systems. This philosophical background allows us to provide, in conclusion, a new conceptualisation of the circular economy as a cognitive framework instrumental to the emergence of a future imaginary. (shrink)

Customer citizenship behavior in the online shopping environment is vital to the success of e-retailers. However, it is unclear whether and how service recovery expectation and recovery justice predict customer citizenship behavior in e-retailing settings. Grounded on the expectation confirmation theory and social exchange theory, this study examined the influence of service recovery expectation and recovery justice on customer citizenship behavior with a serial mediation of recovery expectation confirmation and post-recovery satisfaction. A total of 774 samples (...) from e-shoppers with most impressive and most recent service recovery experience were collected to test the hypotheses using structural equation modeling and bootstrapping procedures. This study reveals that service recovery expectation has a negative impact on recovery expectation confirmation, while recovery justice positively affects recovery expectation confirmation, which is further positively correlated with post-recovery satisfaction and customer citizenship behavior. Moreover, recovery expectation confirmation and post-recovery satisfaction play a serial mediation in the relationship between service recovery expectation and recovery justice, and customer citizenship behavior. Our study contributes to the growing body of customer citizenship behavior literature by offering an alternative perspective to understand what encourage or impede customer citizenship behavior, and expands service recovery literature by combining service recovery expectation and recovery justice into a framework and revealing the expectation–confirmation mechanism through which they influence post-recovery satisfaction in online shopping setting. (shrink)

Objective wealth plays an important role in social interaction and economic decision making. Previous studies indicate that objective wealth of others may influence the way we participate in resources allocation. However, the effect of objective wealth on responses to fairness-related resource distribution is far from clear, as are the underlying neural processes. To address this issue, we dynamically manipulated proposers’ objective wealth and analyzed participants’ behavior as responders in a modified Ultimatum Game, during which event-related potentials were recorded. Behavioral results (...) showed that participants were prone to reject unfair proposals although that rejection would reduce their own benefit. Importantly, participants were more likely to accept unfair offers from proposers with low objective wealth than from proposers with high objective wealth, with a drastic increase in acceptance rates of unfair offers from 32.79 to 50.59%. Further electrophysiological results showed that there was significantly enhanced feedback-related negativity amplitude toward proposers with high objective wealth for unfair offers. Furthermore, the late frontal negativity amplitude was larger for all the conditions which are not high-fair, which might be the only option that did not elicit any ambiguity. These findings suggest a strong role of proposers’ objective wealth in modulating responders’ behavioral and neural responses to fairness. (shrink)

In several texts, Paul Ricœur has elaborated different concepts of horizon: the horizon of tradition that shapes our perspectives, the horizon as a careful set of determinations of the future, the horizon as a divine call that comes from the future towards us. However, the connection of these three views on the horizon, together with the explicitly Christian interpretation of the third horizon are problematic elements in Ricœur’s thoughts on this topic. In this article his views are confronted with the (...) criticism of Jacques Derrida, who uses a quite different notion of horizon: an enclosing limit that dominates the understanding of what seems to fit in its circle. Finally, the notions of horizon and history as formulated by Jan Patočka provide valuable alternatives to Ricœur’s problematic versions of the horizons of expectation, while leaving the underlying thread of his understanding of horizon intact. (shrink)

Definitions of syncopation share two characteristics: the presence of a meter or analogous hierarchical rhythmic structure and a displacement or contradiction of that structure. These attributes are translated in terms of a Bayesian theory of syncopation, where the syncopation of a rhythm is inferred based on a hierarchical structure that is, in turn, learned from the ongoing musical stimulus. Several experiments tested its simplest possible implementation, with equally weighted priors associated with different meters and independence of auditory events, which can (...) be decomposed into two terms representing note density and deviation from a metric hierarchy. A computational simulation demonstrated that extant measures of syncopation fall into two distinct factors analogous to the terms in the simple Bayesian model. Next, a series of behavioral experiments found that perceived syncopation is significantly related to both terms, offering support for the general Bayesian construction of syncopation. However, we also found that the prior expectations associated with different metric structures are not equal across meters and that there is an interaction between density and hierarchical deviation, implying that auditory events are not independent from each other. Together, these findings provide evidence that syncopation is a manifestation of a form of temporal expectation that can be directly represented in Bayesian terms and offer a complementary, feature‐driven approach to recent Bayesian models of temporal prediction. (shrink)

Prior research has documented the continued existence of an expectation gap, defined as the divergence between the public’s and the profession’s conceptions of auditor’s duties, despite the auditing profession’s attempt to adopt standards and practices to close this gap. In this paper, we consider one potential explanation for the persistence of the expectation gap: the role of media bias in shaping public opinion and views. We analyze press articles covering 40 U.S. corporate fraud cases discovered between 1992 and (...) 2011. We compare the auditor’s duties, described by the auditing standards, with the description of the fraud cases as found in the press articles. We draw upon prior research to identify three sources of the expectation gap: deficient performance, deficient standards, and unreasonable expectations. The results of our analysis provide evidence that the performance gap can be reduced by strengthening auditor’s willingness and ability to apply existing auditing standards concerning fraud detection; the standards gap can be narrowed by improving existing auditing standards; and unreasonable expectations, however, involve elements beyond the profession’s sphere of control. As a result, the expectation gap is unlikely to disappear given the media’s tendency to bias, with an overemphasis of unreasonable expectations in their coverage of frauds and press articles tending to reinforce the view that the auditor should take more responsibility for detecting fraud, irrespective of whether this is feasible at a reasonable cost. In addition to the primary role of the press in perpetuating the expectation gap, a second reason for continuation of the expectation gap is that the rational auditor will have difficulty in assessing subjective components of fraudulent behavior. (shrink)

We interpret the modal µ-calculus over a new model [10], to give a temporal logic suitable for systems exhibiting both probabilistic and demonic nondeterminism. The logical formulae are real-valued, and the statements are not limited to properties that hold with probability 1. In achieving that conceptual step, our technical contribution is to determine the correct quantitative generalisation of the Boolean operators: one that allows many of the standard Boolean-based temporal laws to carry over the reals with little or no structural (...) alteration, even for properties that hold with probability strictly between 0 and 1. The generalisation is not obvious, but is dictated by our discovery elsewhere of the algebraic property that characterises the next-time operator over the new model: it is arithmetic 'sublinearity' [20, Fig. 4 p. 342], which replaces the Boolean conjunctivity that characterises next-time in a modal algebra.We confirm by example that the new modal laws can be used for quantitative reasoning about probabilistic/demonic behavior. The random walk is treated using only those laws and real-number arithmetic: arguing from precise numeric premises, more specific than simply 'with some non-zero probability', we reach numeric conclusions that are not simply 'with probability 1'. (shrink)

This book studies the philosophies of Paul Tillich. Its focus is on justice, covering two dimensions of justice. The first is the social dimension, manifested in human relationships. The second dimension is at the individual level, seen in each person's struggle to feel a secure sense of selfhood.

Human relationships are formed and maintained through interaction, yet it is consistently observed that even under identical interactional conditions, the outcomes of relationships—whether maintained, transformed, or broken—differ across individuals. Existing theories of relationships have primarily explained this phenomenon through emotional factors or interactional structures, but they have failed to sufficiently account for why the same structure produces different relational outcomes. To address this problem, this paper focuses on the idea that the outcomes of relationships are determined not by the interaction (...) structure itself, but by the internal conditions through which that structure is interpreted and processed by individuals. To this end, the paper distinguishes recognition from respect and analyzes respect as a non-automatic process that does not necessarily follow from recognition. It further introduces respect capacity as the ability to maintain the boundaries and rights of others, and systematically examines its components and variability. In addition, the paper formalizes the concept of expectation distortion by showing that expectations can be formed prior to interaction through projection processes and can be maintained and reinforced through cognitive distortion. Trust is defined not as an emotional state, but as the accumulated result of repeated choices, and is analyzed as a structure formed around predictability and the willingness to maintain the relationship, which can gradually collapse over time. Based on these discussions, the paper presents a sequential structure of recognition–respect–interaction–expectation–trust, emphasizing that this entire process is filtered through the internal conditions of individuals. Through this, it explains the mechanism by which relational outcomes diverge under identical interactional structures and proposes a theoretical framework for analyzing the formation, maintenance, and breakdown of human relationships at the level of individual differences. (shrink)

Drawing on propositions from the signaling theory and expectancy theory, this study hypothesizes that the perceived corporate citizenship of job seekers positively affects a firm’s attractiveness and career success expectation. This study’s proposed research hypotheses are empirically tested using a survey of graduating MBA students seeking a job. The empirical findings show that a firm’s corporate citizenship provides a competitive advantage in attracting job seekers and fostering optimistic career success expectation. Such findings substantially complement the growing literature arguing (...) that corporate citizenship brings firms competitive advantages without solid evidence from the perspective of recruitment and human resources. Finally, managerial implications and limitations of this study are also discussed. (shrink)

Promoting interpersonal helping among coworkers is an important aim for any organisation that cares about employee well-being. Drawing on guilt aversion hypothesis, this research focuses on the power of social expectations in promoting prosocial behaviour among employees and investigates the role of anticipated guilt for failing to meet coworkers’ expectations. In two preregistered studies, the effect of beneficiary expectation on benefactors’ anticipated guilt and intention to help was investigated. In Study 1, Japanese participants (n = 284) recalled a situation (...) when they helped a coworker spontaneously, and evaluated perceived beneficiary expectation to receive help, as well as anticipated guilt for not helping. Beneficiary expectation positively predicted anticipated guilt, and the effect was stronger when the beneficiary was a same-status colleague, and when interpersonal helping frequency in the organisation was low. Study 2 (n = 499) employed vignettes and manipulated beneficiary expectation. A mediational model revealed that beneficiary expectation leads to more anticipated guilt for not helping, which, in turn, increases employees’ intention to help. Together, these studies show that employees are sensitive to their coworkers’ expectations, and guilt-averse; therefore, interpersonal helping among employees may be promoted by establishing legitimate expectations of prosociality in the workplace. (shrink)

I argue in this chapter that it may not be reasonable for a person committing a criminal act to expect privacy in relation to the act. This is not because the person’s reasonable expectation of privacy or right to privacy in this case is defeated by some other considerations. My point is that she does not have legitimate interests to be served by having control of access to information in relation to the crime. Nor is there such a thing (...) as a zone of privacy in a fundamental sense that covers her claim to privacy in relation to the criminal act simply because it takes place in that zone. However, I argue that a criminal does have reasonable expectation of privacy in a derivative way because of our concerns about unfettered discretion to be exercised by the government. My skeptical argument echoes some feminist critiques of the right to privacy but does not disparage such a right entirely. I argue that there is nevertheless a gender disparity in the social costs of privacy rights. (shrink)

Filler-gap dependency resolution is often characterized as an active process. We probed the mechanisms that determine where and why comprehenders posit gaps during incremental processing using Norwegian as our test language. First, we investigated why active filler-gap dependency resolution is suspended inside island domains like embedded questions in some languages. Processing-based accounts hold that resource limitations prevent gap-filling in embedded questions across languages, while grammar-based accounts predict that active gap-filling is only blocked in languages where embedded questions are grammatical islands. (...) In a self-paced reading study, we find that Norwegian participants exhibit filled-gap effects inside embedded questions, which are not islands in the language. The findings are consistent with grammar-based, but not processing, accounts. Second, we asked if active filler-gap processing can be understood as a special case of probabilistic ambiguity resolution within an expectation-based framework. To do so, we tested whether word-by-word surprisal values from a neural language model could predict the location and magnitude of filled-gap effects in our behavioral data. We find that surprisal accurately tracks the location of filled-gap effects but severely underestimates their magnitude. This suggests either that mechanisms above and beyond probabilistic ambiguity resolution are required to fully explain active gap-filling behavior or that surprisal values derived from long-short term memory are not good proxies for humans' incremental expectations during filler-gap resolution. (shrink)

A plausible view about the epistemic condition of blameworthiness holds the following. Reasonable Expectation (RE): S's state of ignorance excuses iff S could not have been reasonably expected to have corrected or avoided the ignorance. An important, yet underexplored issue for RE concerns cases where an agent had the capacities and opportunities to have corrected or avoided the state of ignorance yet failed to do because of the difficulty involved. When does the fact that it was difficult for the (...) agent to have corrected or avoided the ignorance make an expectation to have done so an unreasonable expectation? Addressing this question is important for understanding what RE implies for a broad range of interesting cases where non-ideal agents out in the real world are ignorant because of commonplace difficulties (e.g., cognitive biases, complexity of large bodies of evidence, and misinformation). Whether commonplace difficulties excuse is an interesting and important topic that a satisfactory account of the epistemic condition needs to address. This paper proposes and defends an irreducibly normative account of when difficulty precludes a reasonable expectation to know better. The paper then shows how this account can be used alongside empirical research to reveal what RE implies for important cases of ignorance had by real non-ideal agents. (shrink)

When listeners consider a speaker's social identity or standpoint as evidence of their credibility on questions related to social issues, this practice is usually epistemically counterproductive. Though people's standpoints are relevant for understanding what it's like to occupy a social position, the practice of boosting or blocking a speaker's credibility on the basis of their standpoint is often misleading. The expectation that speakers will reveal their standpoints and that listeners will consider the speaker's standpoints when evaluating their claims is (...) also burdensome for speakers who would rather conceal information about their standpoints. (shrink)