Philosophers of biology have worked extensively on how we ought best to interpret the probabilities which arise throughout evolutionary theory. In spite of this substantial work, however, much of the debate has remained persistently intractable. I offer the example of Bayesian models of divergence time estimation as a case study in how we might bring further resources from the biological literature to bear on these debates. These models offer us an example in which a number of different sources of (...) uncertainty are combined to produce an estimate for a complex, unobservable quantity. These models have been carefully analyzed in recent biological work, which has determined the relationship between these sources of uncertainty, both quantitatively and qualitatively. I suggest here that this case shows us the limitations of univocal analyses of probability in evolution, as well as the simple dichotomy between “subjective” and “objective” probabilities, and I conclude by gesturing toward ways in which we might introduce more sophisticated interpretive taxonomies of probability as a path toward advancing debates on probability in the life sciences. (shrink)

Displayed enthusiasm has been shown to relate to intrinsic motivation, vitality, and positive affect, but its effects on recall performance and time estimation have not yet been explored. This research aimed at studying the effects of a delivery style characterised by High Enthusiasm (HE) on recall, time estimation, and intrinsic motivation. In line with previous studies, effects on intrinsic motivation were expected. In addition, higher recall and lower time estimations were hypothesised. In two experiments, participants assigned to a (...) HE condition or to a normal reading control condition listened to a narrative and to a descriptive passage. Then, they were asked to rate perceived time, enthusiasm, pleasure, interest, enjoyment and curiosity, before writing a free recall. Experiment 1 showed that in the HE condition, participants recalled more, were more intrinsically motivated, and expressed lower time estimations compared to the control condition. Experiment 2 confirmed the positive effects of HE reading compared to normal reading, using different passages and a larger sample. (shrink)

In this paper, the fixed-time practical bipartite tracking problem for the networked robotic systems with parametric uncertainties, input disturbances, and directed signed graphs is investigated. A new fixed-time estimator-based control algorithm for the NRSs is presented to address the abovementioned problem. By applying a sliding surface and the time base generator approach, a new stability analysis method is proposed to achieve the fixed-time practical bipartite tracking for the NRSs. We also derive the upper bound of the convergence time for employing (...) the presented control algorithm to solve the practical bipartite tracking problem and further demonstrate that the convergence time is independent of the initial value. Finally, the simulation examples are given to verify the effectiveness of the presented algorithms. (shrink)

Nowadays decision making is strongly supported by the high-confident point estimations produced by deep learning algorithms. In many activities, they are sufficient for the decision-making process. However, in some other cases, confidence intervals are required too for an appropriate decision-making process. In this work, a first attempt to generate point estimations with confidence intervals for the $^{222}$Rn radiation level time series at Canfranc Underground Laboratory is presented. To predict the low-radiation periods allows correctly scheduling the unshielded periods for maintenance operations (...) in the experiments hosted in this facility. This should minimize the deposition of radioactive dust on the exposed surfaces during these unshielded periods. An approach based on deep learning with stochastic regulation is evaluated in the forecasting of point estimations and confidence intervals of the $^{222}$Rn time series and compared with a second approach based on Gaussian processes. As a consequence of this work, an evaluation of the capacity of Gaussian process and deep learning with stochastic regularization for generating point estimations and their confidence intervals for this time series is stated. (shrink)

BackgroundThe amount and value of researchers’ peer review work is critical for academia and journal publishing. However, this labor is under-recognized, its magnitude is unknown, and alternative ways of organizing peer review labor are rarely considered.MethodsUsing publicly available data, we provide an estimate of researchers’ time and the salary-based contribution to the journal peer review system.ResultsWe found that the total time reviewers globally worked on peer reviews was over 100 million hours in 2020, equivalent to over 15 thousand years. The (...) estimated monetary value of the time US-based reviewers spent on reviews was over 1.5 billion USD in 2020. For China-based reviewers, the estimate is over 600 million USD, and for UK-based, close to 400 million USD.ConclusionsBy design, our results are very likely to be under-estimates as they reflect only a portion of the total number of journals worldwide. The numbers highlight the enormous amount of work and time that researchers provide to the publication system, and the importance of considering alternative ways of structuring, and paying for, peer review. We foster this process by discussing some alternative models that aim to boost the benefits of peer review, thus improving its cost-benefit ratio. (shrink)

We deal with the design problem of nonfragile state estimator for discrete-time genetic regulatory networks with time-varying delays and randomly occurring uncertainties. In particular, the norm-bounded uncertainties enter into the GRNs in random ways in order to reflect the characteristic of the modelling errors, and the so-called randomly occurring uncertainties are characterized by certain mutually independent random variables obeying the Bernoulli distribution. The focus of the paper is on developing a new nonfragile state estimation method to estimate the concentrations (...) of the mRNA and the protein for considered uncertain delayed GRNs, where the randomly occurring estimator gain perturbations are allowed. By constructing a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, a delay-dependent criterion is obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities by properly using the discrete-time Wirtinger-based inequality and reciprocally convex combination approach as well as the free-weighting matrix method. It is shown that the proposed method ensures that the estimation error dynamics is globally asymptotically stable and the desired estimator parameter is designed via the solutions to certain LMIs. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed estimation results. (shrink)

The question of whether time is its own best representation is explored. Though there is theoretical debate between proponents of internal models and embedded cognition proponents (e.g. Brooks R 1991 Artificial Intelligence 47 139–59) concerning whether the world is its own best model, proponents of internal models are often content to let time be its own best representation. This happens via the time update of the model that simply allows the model’s state to evolve along with the state of the (...) modeled domain. I argue that this is neither necessary nor advisable. I show that this is not necessary by describing how internal modeling approaches can be generalized to schemes that explicitly represent time by maintaining trajectory estimates rather than state estimates. Though there are a variety of ways this could be done, I illustrate the proposal with a scheme that combines filtering, smoothing and prediction to maintain an estimate of the modeled domain’s trajectory over time. I show that letting time be its own representation is not advisable by showing how trajectory estimation schemes can provide accounts of temporal illusions, such as apparent motion, that pose serious difficulties for any scheme that lets time be its own representation. (shrink)

This chapter explores to what extent some core ideas of predictive processing can be applied to the phenomenology of time consciousness. The focus is on the experienced continuity of consciously perceived, temporally extended phenomena (such as enduring processes and successions of events). The main claim is that the hierarchy of representations posited by hierarchical predictive processing models can contribute to a deepened understanding of the continuity of consciousness. Computationally, such models show that sequences of events can be represented as states (...) of a hierarchy of dynamical systems. Phenomenologically, they suggest a more fine-grained analysis of the perceptual contents of the specious present, in terms of a hierarchy of temporal wholes. Visual perception of static scenes not only contains perceived objects and regions but also spatial gist; similarly, auditory perception of temporal sequences, such as melodies, involves not only perceiving individual notes but also slightly more abstract features (temporal gist), which have longer temporal durations (e.g., emotional character or rhythm). Further investigations into these elusive contents of conscious perception may be facilitated by findings regarding its neural underpinnings. Predictive processing models suggest that sensorimotor areas may influence these contents. (shrink)

Log-file data from computer-based assessments can provide useful collateral information for estimating student abilities. In turn, this can improve traditional approaches that only consider response accuracy. Based on the amounts of time students spent on 10 mathematics items from the PISA 2012, this study evaluated the overall changes in and measurement precision of ability estimates and explored country-level heterogeneity when combining item responses and time-on-task measurements using a joint framework. Our findings suggest a notable increase in precision with the incorporation (...) of response times and indicate differences between countries in how respondents approached items as well as in their response processes. Results also showed that additional information could be captured through differences in the modeling structure when response times were included. However, such information may not reflect the testing objective. (shrink)

Responding to recent concerns about the reliability of the published literature in psychology and other disciplines, we formed the X-Phi Replicability Project to estimate the reproducibility of experimental philosophy. Drawing on a representative sample of 40 x-phi studies published between 2003 and 2015, we enlisted 20 research teams across 8 countries to conduct a high-quality replication of each study in order to compare the results to the original published findings. We found that x-phi studies – as represented in our sample (...) – successfully replicated about 70% of the time. We discuss possible reasons for this relatively high replication rate in the field of experimental philosophy and offer suggestions for best research practices going forward. (shrink)

Biologists studying short-lived organisms have become aware of the need to recognize an explicit temporal extend of a population over a considerable time. In this article we outline the concept and the realm of populations with explicit spatial and temporary boundaries. We call such populations “temporally bounded populations”. In the concept, time is of the same importance as space in terms of a dimension to which a population is restricted. Two parameters not available for populations that are only spatially defined (...) characterise temporally bounded populations: total population size, which is the total number of individuals present within the temporal borders, and total residence time, which is the sum of the residence times of all individuals. We briefly review methods to estimate these parameters. We illustrate the concept for the large blue butterfly (Maculinea nausithous) and outline insights into ecological and conservation-relevant processes that cannot be gained without the use of the concept. (shrink)