Trial by Fire: Uncertainty and Adaptive Management in Forest Ecology

Philosophy of Science:1-19 (forthcoming)
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Abstract

Scientists studying fire-prone ecosystems have to contend with uncertainty stemming from causal complexity and conflicting aims, but they manage different types of uncertainty differently. I recommend that they instead adopt a common approach to uncertainty involving context-sensitivity and adaptive learning. Such an approach is consonant with insights from pragmatism and pluralism in philosophy of science and may even suggest a productive way to frame uncertainty while facilitating public trust.

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Aja Watkins
University of Wisconsin, Madison

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