Abstract

‘Deterministic’ models in population dynamics often are really approximations to stochastic models, justified by an appeal to ‘the law of large numbers’. It is proposed to call such models ‘pseudodeterministic’. Four questions are discussed in this article: What errors may be made by equating deterministically predicted values to expectations? When, and in what sense, may numbers be assumed to be large? How large are the variances, coefficients of variations, etc., as assigned to the variables in the stochastic versions of the models? What role may pseudodeterministic models play in empirical research, where problems of statistical reliability arise?As an example, a modified Nicholson-Bailey model of the interaction between insect parasitoids and their hosts is discussed; the modification consists of assigning a random mortality to the parasitoid population. A stochastic version of this model is discussed. The expectation of the final host density is compared with the value computed from the deterministic model. The latter value is systematically lower than the former. The magnitude of the difference depends on parameter values. The variability to be expected with the stochastic model is characterized by the coefficient of variation of the final host density; its dependence on parameter values and initial conditions is discussed. It is concluded that it is worthwhile in practical applications to estimate parasitoid mortality, and that the coefficient of variation in real situations may be far from negligible