Abstract

Based on data on energy consumption per unit of GDP in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2023, this paper constructs an exponential regression model to quantitatively analyze the evolution trend of green development. The results indicate that energy consumption per unit of GDP in Zhejiang Province exhibits a significant exponential downward trend, with a goodness of fit of 0.9573, reflecting a continuous improvement in energy utilization efficiency. Key policy milestones—such as the “Eight-Eight Strategy” implemented in 2003 and the energy-saving policies introduced during the 12th Five-Year Plan period—are highly consistent with stages of accelerated energy-intensity reduction, highlighting the strong role of policy interventions. Forecasting results suggest that energy consumption per unit of GDP will continue to decline in the future, although the rate of decline is expected to slow, indicating that improvements in energy efficiency are entering a stage of diminishing marginal returns. This study provides empirical evidence for evaluating green development performance in Zhejiang Province and offers quantitative support for future policy optimization.