Abstract

The issue of stroke is relevant both globally and in Kazakhstan, requiring a deep understanding of the causes, characteristics, and outcomes of the disease to ensure effective and safe treatment. The significant cost of specialized treatment, the limited number of specialists involved in comprehensive rehabilitation, and the lack of effective technologies in many medical institutions create conditions for population disability, placing a heavy burden on the country’s budget. Objective: To study the dynamics of stroke incidence and mortality over a period of 7 years from 2018 to 2024 and to forecast for the next 2 years. Methods: The study focuses on statistical indicators of stroke incidence and mortality, with data sourced from official statistics. Results: Between 2018 and 2024, stroke incidence in Kazakhstan showed a steady upward trend, with a 150.9% increase overall and particularly marked growth in East Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and Karaganda regions, while Turkestan and Astana demonstrated significant declines. The COVID-19 pandemic years (2020–2021) were associated with an increase in stroke-related mortality compared to pre- and post-pandemic years. Forecast models predict that stroke incidence may reach over 7,000 cases annually by 2026, while mortality could exceed 700 cases per year. The number of patients receiving post-stroke rehabilitation also increased substantially, from 2,609 in 2018 to 8,762 in 2024, reflecting both higher demand and improved service provision. Notably, men were found to be at greater risk of stroke at younger ages compared to women. Conclusions: Stroke incidence in Kazakhstan has significantly increased in recent years, with pronounced regional disparities. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with higher stroke-related mortality, underlining the need for more resilient healthcare systems. The steady growth of post-stroke rehabilitation services indicates progress in patient care; however, further expansion and equity in access remain essential. Strengthening preventive strategies, improving acute stroke management, and enhancing rehabilitation programs are crucial to reduce the future burden of stroke in Kazakhstan.