Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in
Menu
Find a journal Publish with us Track your research
Search
Cart
  1. Home
  2. Political Behavior
  3. Article

Do the polls affect elections? Some 1980 evidence

  • Published: June 1988
  • Volume 10, pages 136–150, (1988)
  • Cite this article
Download PDF

Access provided by Institution of Civil Engineers Library

Political Behavior Aims and scope Submit manuscript
Do the polls affect elections? Some 1980 evidence
Download PDF
  • Andrew Skalaban1 
  • 391 Accesses

  • 38 Citations

  • 14 Altmetric

  • 1 Mention

  • Explore all metrics

Abstract

This paper finds that the relatively favorable standing of Ronald Reagan in the preelection polls helped to generate a bandwagon effect in the 1980 presidential election. The models tested here suggest that this effect was most pronounced among voters who had the weakest prior political opinions and hence were most susceptible to suggestion through the media. While the bandwagon effect that is generated is modest, after controlling for an array of other political biases, it is substantial enough to warrant further attention as the dissemination of poll results becomes an increasingly attractive news “event.”

Article PDF

Download to read the full article text

Similar content being viewed by others

Experiments on the Effects of Opinion Polls and Implications for Laws Banning Pre-election Polling

Chapter © 2016

Predicting 2016 US Presidential Election Polls with Online and Media Variables

Chapter © 2016

Why polls fail to predict elections

Article Open access 23 October 2021

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles, books and news in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.
  • American Politics
  • Electoral Politics
  • Media Reception and Media Effects
  • Party Research
  • Political Psychology
  • Social Influence
Use our pre-submission checklist

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

References

  • Atkin, Charles, and Heald, Gary (1976). The effects of political advertising.Public Opinion Quarterly 40: 216–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartels, Larry M. (1985). Expectations and preferences in presidential nominating campaigns.American Political Science Review 79: 804–815.

    Google Scholar 

  • Behr, Ray L., and Iyengar, Shanto (1985). Television news, real world cues and changes in the public agenda.Public Opinion Quarterly 49: 38–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berelson, Bernard, Lazarsfeld, Paul, McPhee, William (1954).Voting. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Broh, C. Anthony (1983). Polls, pols, and parties.Journal of Politics 45: 732–744.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brudney, Jeffrey L. (1982). An elite view of the polls.Public Opinion Quarterly 46: 503–520.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ceci, Stephen J., and Kain, Edward L. (1982). Jumping on the bandwagon with the underdog: the impact of attitude polls on polling behavior.Public Opinion Quarterly 46: 228–242.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crane, Marie (1982). Perceptions of public opinion. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Sociology, University of Michigan.

  • Downs, Anthony (1957).An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Erbring, Lutz, Goldenberg, Edie N., and Miller, Arthur H. (1980). Front page news and real world cues: a new look at agenda setting by the media.American Journal of Political Science 24: 16–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iyengar, Shanto, Peters, Mark D., and Kinder, Donald R. (1982). Experimental demonstrations of the not-so-minimal consequences of television news programs.American Political Science Review 76: 848–858.

    Google Scholar 

  • Latane, Bibb (1981). Psychology of social impact.American Psychologist 36: 343–356.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marsh, Catherine (1985). Back on the bandwagon: the effect of opinion polls on public opinion.British Journal of Political Science 15: 51–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patterson, Thomas E. (1980).The Mass Media Election. New York: Praeger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pindyck, Robert S., and Rubinfeld, Daniel L. (1981).Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Polsby, Nelson W. (1983).Consequences of Party Reform. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Polsby, Nelson W., and Wildalvsky, Arron (1980).Presidential Elections (5th. ed.). New York: Scribners.

    Google Scholar 

  • Riesman, David (1950).The Lonely Crowd. New Haven: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stoval, James Glen, and Solomon, Jacqueline H. (1984). The poll as a news event in the 1980 presidential campaign.Public Opinion Quarterly 48: 615–623.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sudman, Seymour (1983). The Network polls: a critical review.Public Opinion Quarterly 47: 490–496.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, 52242, Iowa City, IA

    Andrew Skalaban

Authors
  1. Andrew Skalaban
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Skalaban, A. Do the polls affect elections? Some 1980 evidence. Polit Behav 10, 136–150 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00991410

Download citation

  • Issue date: June 1988

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00991410

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

Keywords

  • Presidential Election
  • Political Opinion
  • Poll Result
  • Political Psychology
  • Political Bias
Use our pre-submission checklist

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

Advertisement

Search

Navigation

  • Find a journal
  • Publish with us
  • Track your research

Discover content

  • Journals A-Z
  • Books A-Z

Publish with us

  • Journal finder
  • Publish your research
  • Language editing
  • Open access publishing

Products and services

  • Our products
  • Librarians
  • Societies
  • Partners and advertisers

Our brands

  • Springer
  • Nature Portfolio
  • BMC
  • Palgrave Macmillan
  • Apress
  • Discover
  • Your US state privacy rights
  • Accessibility statement
  • Terms and conditions
  • Privacy policy
  • Help and support
  • Legal notice
  • Cancel contracts here

172.69.130.109

ICE Institution of Civil Engineers (3000167333) - Institution of Civil Engineers Library (2000027800)

Springer Nature

© 2025 Springer Nature