Jefferies' bearish Apple stock guesswork continues with iPhone 18-related downgrade

AppleInsider

A historically bearish analyst firm who's been underwater on Apple stock for years has downgraded the stock to underperform, arguing that investors are placing too much faith in the upcoming iPhone 18.

Analysts don't agree on iPhone 18

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee trimmed Apple's price target to $205.16 from $205.82. Lee said improved demand for the iPhone 17 has already been priced into the stock, leaving little room for growth tied to future models.

According to Jefferies, the iPhone 17 benefited from a price cut on the base model and strong trade-in values for older devices. Demand picked up after a slow start, and resale prices for the iPhone 17 Pro Max remain 5% to 15% above retail.

Lee said those tailwinds are unlikely to repeat on the same scale.

The firm now expects iPhone shipments to rise 7% in fiscal 2025, grow just 1% in 2026, and decline 1% in 2027. Revenue is projected to increase 6% in 2025, a pace Jefferies says does not justify Apple's current valuation.

The foldable question

Jefferies takes pessimistic view of Apple, and its calls generally don't match reality. As one example, in 2024, the firm downgraded the stock and argued that excitement around the iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 was overblown.

The latest downgrade now feels like another step in a long streak of bearish calls that haven't landed.

The iPhone 18 Fold remains Apple's wild card. Jefferies estimates annual sales of 12.5 million units, while Apple's stock price implies far higher demand.

Foldables remain a niche market, potentially restraining adoption of the new iPhones.

Beyond the iPhone Fold, the firm predicts the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max will cost $100 more than predecessors. They notably botched the same prediction for the iPhone 17 line.

A different view from Morgan Stanley

On October 2, 2025, far more accurate Morgan Stanley raised Apple's price target to $298, citing strong signs of iPhone 18 demand. The bank said Apple is likely to boost iPhone 17 orders to the low 90 million range, driven by Pro models.

Morgan Stanley projects Apple will sell 243 million iPhones in 2026, with a bull case of 270 million if the iPhone Fold and Apple Intelligence spark adoption. That contrasts sharply with Jefferies' cautious foldable estimate, showing how divided Wall Street is on Apple's next growth driver.

At the time of the downgrade, shares traded at $254.66, near their 52-week high of $260.10 and down about 1%. At publication time, AAPL is up to $258.48 and is a bit ahead of the NASDAQ overall, signaling that the market doesn't really care about Jeffries' declaration.



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robin huber

The force of knee-jerk antipathy to Apple is strong in this one. 

eriamjh

• A historically bearish analyst firm who's been underwater on Apple stock for years has downgraded the stock to underperform, arguing that investors are placing too much faith in the upcoming iPhone 18.

This says it all.    losers continue to lose.   

Maybe the blind squirrel will find a nut.   

danox

Long, Apple over the years it has never ceased to amaze me the analysts, financial gurus, and the sheers incompetence there must be a plan behind it. Nothing else can explain it (maybe the plan is to create maximum churn to make money off of the retail investors). What else could it be? It’s like they don’t actually really follow or know what is actually going on with these companies….

Over the years they have consistently gotten almost everything wrong about Apple and many other companies, the historical memory just doesn’t go past an hour a day a week the lack of any long range thinking just never ceases to amaze.