While Operation Epic Fury (USA) / Roaring Lion (ISR) is not yet complete, it is clear that this is the most extraordinary, overwhelming & one-sided military victory in all of human history.
A huge nation of 90 million people with one of the largest missile & drone inventories on Earth, a large navy & over 600,000 soldiers has been substantially demilitarised by force, decapitated, discombobulated & been stripped of the ability to project power beyond its borders. It appears to be fast losing the capability to exercise power even within its borders.
Iran has lost:
a) its top 50 leaders on day one;
b) its entire navy - over 100 ships & boats sunk;
c) its entire airforce and IRGC transport aircraft;
d) most of its missile launchers;
e) most of its missile & drone stocks;
f) its military industrial base to enable it to produce weapons in future - this is still ongoing;
g) upward of 10,000 regime leaders, soldiers & thugs DEAD and likely around 30,000 injured - this is still ongoing as the US & Israel destroy the regime's ability to terrorise the Iranian people;
h) its entire space industry & capability;
g) its entire nuclear industry.
That's the worst losses in 16 days of any nation in all of human history.
Its the most complete rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD) of a substantial and powerful military force of all time.
Yes, ZERO. Not a single IDF soldier killed by Iran, not a single manned aircraft lost, not a single military target destroyed by Iranian ballistic missiles.
The evil regime in Iran has committed attrocious war crimes by targeting Israeli civilians, including with unguided, indiscriminate cluster munitions and sadly 17 people have been murdered to date (13 Jews, 3 foreign workers & 1 illegal Arab worker). This is less than the 28 civilians who were murdered by Iran during the 12 Day War in June 2025.
Israel has lost 2 soldiers in ground combat against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Fewer Jews have been killed in this war than were killed in Bondi.
The United States military losses are:
a) 13 military personnel;
b) Three F-15E fighter jets from Kuwaiti friendly fire;
c) a KC-135 refueling plane from a mid-air collision;
d) some damage to some radars at US bases in the region.
For some comparison here are US KIA in other conflicts:
a) Desert Storm (2003): 148
b) Vietnam: 58,000
c) World War Two: 405,000
This operation has by far the lowest US military losses of any conflict in history.
The US clearly enunciated the goals of this operation in its first hours.
It is important to note what these goals do not include:
Regime change. Sec. Hegseth has been crystal clear that this is not a regime change operation. Although the operation may create conditions to allow the Iranian People to rise up and overthrow the regime, it is not a goal of the operation.
The Israeli position is slightly different as Israel has expressed a goal "to create the conditions" to allow the Iranian People to overthrow the regime. But again, regime change is not a stated goal.
Freedom of Navigation. Keeping the Straits of Hormuz open is NOT a goal of the operation, although the operation may create the conditions that Iran has very limited ability to harass shipping in the Strait. This is in stark contrast to Operation Rough Rider in March 2025 which DID have the stated goal of restoring “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea and ending Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.
The stated goals of military operations matter. These goals are set by the combatant states, not by external parties and the success of a military operation must be judged by its goals, not what others may want them to be.
By this measure, the goals of the Operation have been substantially completed already & the operation must be judged an overwhelming success.
There is a lot of BS flying around the internet on this topic so I wanted to set a few things straight.
The US and Israel are NET ENERGY EXPORTERS.
The US is the largest oil producer and largest net exporter of petroleum products in the world.
Israel is a major natural gas producer and exporter (via pipelines, not LNG tankers).
Neither the US nor Israel get any oil via the Strait of Hormuz nor rely upon it in any way.
Restrictions on oil flows via Hormuz & higher oil prices are actually a BENEFIT to the USA in two ways - higher margins & greater volume. It is a bonanza for US oil companies as Trump has pointed out.
Pump Prices impact on US Economy.
Now people will say that high gas prices at the pump are bad for the US economy, but there are 3 reasons why this is not the case in the current situation:
a) pump prices are still lower than under President Biden because Trump has brought so much new oil production capacity online;
b) the pump price spike is temporary and is unlikely to persist long term;
c) the super profits of the oil companies can be taxed and the money used as a cross subsidy to keep pump prices down. Many countries including Israel, Australia & Norway have super profits taxes on energy. They would kick in only when oil was above $100. This can give the US a major economic competitive advantage vs other countries paying higher prices for energy and assist re-shoring manufacturing from China, which is a Trump Administration major goal.
Its mainly an Insurance Issue
Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, despite its boasting. What happened is that Lloyds of London, which has a virtual monopoly on maritime re-insurance, refused coverage to ships wanting to pass the Straits of Hormuz because it couldn't price the risk. This is partly because of the uncertainties of war but also partly because the UK's access to US intelligence information has been severely limited as punishment for the UK's failure as an ally under PM Starmer. This has meant that MI6, across the Thames from Lloyds, has not had the information it has historically passed to Lloyds.
Trump's team had already planned for this and announced US backed maritime insurance almost immediately. Realising that the US could take Lloyd's monopoly, Lloyds then changed tack and started offering insurance again.
Traffic is starting to flow again
As of today, the first tanker with AIS on transited the Strait with no problems. It was carrying UAE oil. Before this there have been plenty of tankers running dark (no AIS) at night.
The only ships that Iran has hit have been stationary and hitting a moving ship when your radar is destroyed and their AIS is off is no easy task.
The whole Straits of Hormuz & Houthi episodes have reminded everyone about the importance and vulnerability of naval chokepoints.
There are 3 major naval chokepoints in the Middle East:
a) The Straits of Hormuz;
b) Bab el Mandeb (at the bottom of the Red Sea); and
c) The Suez Canal.
These chokepoints are quite problematic because they pass by hostile and/or unstable countries & with the ubiquity of air & sea drones even a weak power or terrorists can cause a lot of problems.
What if I told you there was a way to completely bypass all three of these chokepoints & transport oil, natural gas and a range of other goods more cheaply & efficiently.
Well there is, and its called IMEC: The India Middle East Economic Corridor.
It was announced on 9 September 2023 and supported by the USA, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the European Union (EU).
It consists of oil & gas pipelines and railway corridors connecting the Persian Gulf to Israel's Haifa port with sea based onward connections to India and Greece.
Many attributed Hamas's Iran supported October 7 attacks on Israel as an attempt to derail the project, which challenged China's One Belt One Road project and the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) connecting Russia, Iran, and India.
Now as you can see from the above map, the UAE end of the IMEC is still close Iran and thus subject to drone & missile harassment. But with a small modification of including Oman, the IMEC route can be moved much farther from Iran. While Iran regime stalwarts may still be able to attack some ships passing within line of sight of Iran with small drones or missiles, Iran will soon cease to have the ability to threaten at longer distances.
There has been quite a bit of discussion of this in the past and with Iran targeting Oman, along with all of its neighbours, this addition is now much more likely.
https://x.com/DanLinnaeus/status/2033498815324463151/photo/1
When major wars occur, the victors re-arrange the region or world according to their needs and desires. Nations that make a worthwhile contribution get a seat at the table while those that don't pull their weight are excluded. The treaties of Westphalia, Versailles & the Potsdam Agreement are well known examples of this phenomenon.
This is what Trump's recent call to nations which rely upon Hormuz oil to take responsibility & provide naval escorts for shipping is about.
Traditional allies of the US, such as NATO, Australia & Canada have mostly proven themselves, feckless, weak, obstructionist and generally useless. While the US has found, in Israel, its first peer ally, a co-equal battle buddy. I wrote about this in detail here and many have subsequently made the same observation.
The IMEC corridor is a major spoil of war for Israel. It will control the flow of energy & goods from Asia to Europe & goods from Europe to Asia.
Old chokepoints will be deprecated and the only chokepoint will be controlled by the USA's closest ally, Israel.
The Post WWII International Order is being replaced by the victors of this war, USA & Israel. The Iranian regime is not the only loser here. There will be major consequences for traditional US allies for their failures to support the US in this war. The UK & Spain will face special punishments. The UK will lose its Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus & control over the Chagos Islands.
The multi-polar world that many touted, with BRICs as its core, has been exposed as a fantasy. Chinese & Russia air defences & weaponry have been exposed as useless in the face of vastly superior US & Israeli technology.
India signed major defence and economic agreements with Israel just before Operation Epic Fury. So did Greece & Cyprus. Both ends of the IMEC have been secured and linked to its central hub, Israel.
Those that blessed Israel have been bless and those that curse it have been cursed - the Biblical Prophesy of Balaam (a verified historical figure) has been confirmed once again.
