Abstract
The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern1,2 (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles3, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles4,5. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work4,5,6,7. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ‘excess ice’5,8,9,10, but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere–asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis11,12,13, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound14,15,16, which is the lithosphere–asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.
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Acknowledgements
Discussions with numerous people including M. Kimoto, J. Hargreaves, M. Yoshimori, J. Annan, F.-F. Jin and W.-L. Chan contributed to this work. M. Ichino and T. Segawa provided technical support. We thank the MIROC group for continuous development and support of the MIROC GCM. The numerical experiments were carried out on the NIES supercomputer system (NEC SX-8R/128M16) and the JAMSTEC Earth Simulator. This research was supported by JSPS KAKENHI grants 25241005, 22101005 and 21671001, the Global COE Program grant “From the Earth to ‘Earths’”, MEXT, Japan, and the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-10) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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A.A.-O. designed the research and experiments, and wrote the manuscript with F.S., K.K., M.E.R. and H.B. A.A.-O. and F.S. developed the numerical model, performed the experiments and analysed the results with K.T., K.K. and H.B. K.K. provided the ice-core data, and J.O. provided the Earth model for glacial isostatic rebound. All authors discussed the results and provided inputs on the manuscript.
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This file contains Supplementary Text, Supplementary Figures 1-6 and Supplementary References. (PDF 1469 kb)
Simulated ice sheet change for the last 400 kyr with the IcIES-MIROC model (download MOV )
This animation shows an oblique view of the model Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (standard case shown in Fig. 1d) computed every 1000 years during the last 400 kyr, together with the evolution of the ice volume. The 100 kyr glacial cycles and the fast terminations at the end of each glacial cycle are the prominently visible patterns. (MOV 2893 kb)
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Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K. et al. Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume. Nature 500, 190–193 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374
Richard Whaley
Isostatic Rebound will not lower the Ice Surface
It was thought that the Ice Ages were caused by small changes in sunlight from the Earth's orbit. Abe-Ouchi et al have shown by simulating these orbital changes over 400k years that there is no observable 100k year period - the Ice Age period over the last million years. They search for mechanisms in computer models, particularly the effect of delayed isostatic rebound of the ground surface downwards from the weight of ice (Ref 1). However they have not taken into account the Ice Age cycles in the parameters they model. These result in any lowering of the ground surface being made up by snow over the Poles - which will not fall in height causing melting as Abe-Ouchi et al propose. The triggering of the rapid withdrawal of the ice still requires an explanation.
It is generally recognised that Ice Ages require a continent over a Pole (Ref 2). This means the main driver is snow at the S Pole, flowing out as a glacier from its last minimum, and the period is mainly set by the time it takes for this outflow to reach a latitude where melting equals the rate of outflow. Within this process there are a number of cycles: the Height of the Ice as the snow builds up around the Pole from the last minimum, which controls the Rate of Outflow of the Ice, which in turn controls the Advance of the whole Cap (Ref 3 figs 2 ? 4).
The three parameters above all change from the near Ice Age minimum at present. The spreading of the S Pole Cap reflects more sunlight, so the Earth cools.
What is not understood is why the Ice suddenly retreats from its maximum in just 10k years. Abe-Ouchi et al propose that this may be largely due to isostatic rebound (downwards) which they build into their models. It is known the weight of the ice sheet causes the ground surface to sink - but there are delays of thousands of years. The rise is still occurring from the last Ice maximum. They propose that the delayed sinking of 1/3 height of the ice sheet causes the sheet's surface to fall near Ice Age maximum to an altitude where it melts.
We need to consider those cycles in Italics above. Isostatic rebound will not cause melting near the Pole, nor will it exist at the edges of the Caps where melting occurs. We need to compare the annual rise in Height of the Ice near the maximum extent of the Ice (near year 100k in Fig 2 Ref 3) with 1/3 the rise in Height of the Ice around year 85k (estimate of fall in ground surface near year 100k). It is not apparent there will be any lowering of the Ice Surface - lowering of the ground surface being made up by the annual snow fall - which anyway will be near maximum in the Ice Age cycle. Further, Rate of Outflow of Ice is much higher at 100k than at 85k - so at mid latitudes between the Pole and edge of the Cap any fall in the ground surface will also have the high outflow of the ice flowing into any depression. It cannot be said a lowering of the ice surface has any part to play in triggering the sudden withdrawal of the ice. Richard Whaley, Norh East Hants Historical & Archaeological Society. richard@whaley.me.uk
References
1. A. Abe-Ouchi et al, "Insolation driven 100,000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice sheets", Nature 8 August 2013, 500, No.7461, p190 (The paper commented on)
2. BBC Radio 4 In Our Time, 14 February 2013, British Broadcasting Corporation
3. R Whaley, "Ice Ages: Geothermal energy is the driver", North East Hants Hist & Arch Soc e News 10, "www.nehhas.org.uk/ice.htm": http://www.nehhas.org.uk/ic...