Aims for Quantum Computer in 2029: IBM's Roadmap to Larger Systems

Quantum computing represents the next frontier in computational technology, poised to outperform classical computing in solving complex problems such as cryptographic analysis, materials simulation, and large-scale optimization. In June 2025, IBM made headlines by declaring its bold intention to develop a practical quantum computer by 2029. This goal is accompanied by a meticulously designed roadmap, aiming to transition from experimental models to robust, error-corrected quantum systems. The journey toward this goal is not just about hardware; it is also a challenge in quantum engineering, algorithm optimization, and system scaling.

This paper explores IBM's 2029 quantum computing target, elaborates on its technological strategy, and analyzes how this move fits into the broader quantum computing ecosystem involving players like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. The implications of IBM's approach could redefine our computational capabilities and usher in a new age of problem-solving.

Understanding Quantum Computing and Its Limitations

Quantum computers operate on quantum bits or qubits, which, unlike classical bits, can exist in multiple states simultaneously due to the principles of superposition and entanglement. This allows quantum systems to process enormous datasets and complex calculations in parallel, making them theoretically far more powerful than classical machines.

However, quantum computing still faces critical limitations:

Qubit Fragility: Qubits are prone to decoherence and noise.

Error Rates: High error rates necessitate complex error correction mechanisms.

Scalability: Building systems with hundreds or thousands of qubits while maintaining fidelity remains a significant hurdle.

Existing quantum computers cannot outperform classical systems in practical applications due to these challenges. A major portion of their computing power is dedicated to correcting errors, leaving little room for actual computation.

IBM's 2029 Goal: The Starling Quantum Computer

IBM announced its plan to build the "Starling" quantum computer by 2029, housed in a data center in Poughkeepsie, New York. This machine is expected to feature approximately 200 logical qubits. Logical qubits are constructed from multiple physical qubits, corrected for errors, and are a more reliable unit for practical quantum computing.

According to IBM, 200 logical qubits would be sufficient to demonstrate quantum advantage, where quantum systems outperform classical ones in meaningful tasks. The company also revealed an extended goal of building an even larger system by 2033, suggesting a long-term commitment to scaling and commercializing quantum computing.

A New Approach to Error Correction

Historically, error correction has been the Achilles’ heel of quantum computing. Traditional quantum error correction relies on encoding one logical qubit into multiple physical qubits—sometimes in the hundreds—to combat noise and errors. This severely limits the number of usable qubits for actual computation.

IBM’s breakthrough came when its team, led by Jay Gambetta, changed its methodological philosophy:

“We've answered those science questions. You don't need a miracle now,” Gambetta said. “Now you need a grand challenge in engineering.”

Instead of starting with a theoretical model and building hardware around it, IBM looked at what chips could practically be built and then crafted an error correction model suited to them. This shift not only makes development faster but also more realistic.

IBM believes its new low-overhead error correction algorithm could drastically reduce the qubit cost of error correction. If successful, this would free up a significantly larger portion of qubits for computational tasks, effectively leapfrogging many limitations currently plaguing the field.

The Roadmap: 2025 to 2029

IBM’s plan outlines a staged development of quantum systems, each contributing lessons, capabilities, and performance boosts on the path to Starling:

2025: Refine and stabilize current quantum hardware and software stacks.

2026–2027: Develop intermediary systems with enhanced logical qubit capacity.

2028: Construct early models of Starling with integrated error correction.

2029: Launch the full-scale Starling system with 200 logical qubits.

These steps demonstrate a gradual evolution, focusing on resolving engineering challenges, iteratively scaling hardware, and deploying updated versions of IBM’s Qiskit software for developers.

Competition and Collaboration in the Quantum Race

IBM is not alone in its pursuit of quantum supremacy. Major competitors include:

Google: In 2019, it claimed to have achieved quantum supremacy with a 53-qubit machine solving a narrow problem faster than a supercomputer.

Microsoft: Developing a topological quantum computer, which theoretically has better error resilience.

Amazon Braket: Offering cloud-based access to various quantum systems, focusing on hybrid classical-quantum models.

Startups such as IonQ, Rigetti, and PsiQuantum have also received significant venture capital, often focusing on unique hardware paradigms like trapped ions or photonics.

Despite the competition, many companies also collaborate through open-source platforms and academic institutions. IBM’s approach to publishing its roadmap and maintaining open frameworks like Qiskit is part of fostering a global quantum community.

Engineering: The Final Frontier

Gambetta notes that the major remaining obstacle is not science but engineering. This involves:

Cooling Systems: Qubits need extremely low temperatures (~15 mK) for coherence.

Control Electronics: Faster, more efficient control systems must be developed to handle hundreds of logical qubits.

Fabrication Precision: Quantum chips must be built with nanometer-scale precision.

Software Integration: Seamless integration between software (Qiskit) and hardware.

IBM’s roadmap emphasizes modular hardware design, allowing components to be developed, tested, and upgraded independently.

Implications for Industry and Research

A successful 200-logical-qubit machine would be transformative. It could:

Revolutionize Cryptography: Shor’s algorithm could break RSA encryption.

Advance Drug Discovery: Quantum simulation of molecular interactions could lead to new medicines.

Optimize Global Logistics: Quantum algorithms could drastically improve routing, scheduling, and supply chains.

Accelerate AI: Quantum computing could enhance machine learning through faster data processing.

Industries such as pharmaceuticals, energy, and finance are closely watching quantum developments, with many already partnering with IBM’s Quantum Network.

Challenges Ahead

Despite optimism, IBM and others still face obstacles:

Hardware Scalability: Building reliable qubits in large numbers.

Economic Viability: High development costs must translate into viable business applications.

Workforce and Talent: Quantum engineers and software developers are still in short supply.

Ethical Considerations: The immense power of quantum computers raises issues of security, privacy, and global technological balance.

Regulatory bodies and academic institutions will need to adapt quickly to ensure safe and equitable development.

Conclusion

IBM’s declaration to build a practical quantum computer by 2029 marks a pivotal moment in computing history. By redefining its approach to error correction and focusing on engineering practicality, the company has laid out a believable and structured roadmap. With 200 logical qubits as the benchmark, IBM aims to demonstrate quantum advantage within the decade.

This goal is not just an achievement for IBM but a landmark for humanity’s computing capabilities. As companies race to harness quantum power, collaboration, openness, and responsible innovation will be key to turning this futuristic vision into a present-day reality.

References

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• Arute, F. et al. (2019). Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor. Nature, 574(7779), 505–510.
• IBM Research. (2024). IBM Quantum Roadmap. Retrieved from: https://research.ibm.com
• Microsoft Quantum. (2025). Topological qubits: A new path. Retrieved from: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/quantum
• Qiskit.org. (2025). Open-source tools for quantum developers. Retrieved from: https://qiskit.org