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Opinions on business, economics and much more from the editors and columnists at Bloomberg Opinion.
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The most important thing is what Judge Carter did on Monday: accurately labeling Trump’s actions, writes
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Homebuyers are oblivious or indifferent to the risk of rising sea levels and need better information about the threat
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70,000 Russians in the tech industry have already packed up their hard drives and headed to countries such as Armenia, Georgia and Dubai.
Another 100,000 are expected to depart over the next month
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Empty roads encourage faster, more reckless driving
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Why the Federal Reserve should be bracing for a recession, plus more of the week's top stories from Bloomberg Opinion
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One argument against aggressive rate hikes: They’ll hit the young and people of color particularly hard
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Why is Attorney General Merrick Garland taking so long to come to the obvious conclusion about Trump’s wrongdoings?
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Putin’s Ukraine playbook is eerily similar to that of its Chechen wars, writes
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German housing prices have doubled in the span of 12 years, but that’s not stopping people from plowing more money into them https://trib.al/FBPU5HU
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The most eager consumers of the Kremlin's propaganda on Ukraine can be found not just on the far right but the far left globally, says Ian Buruma
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By destroying his relationship with Europe, Putin has also single-handedly wrecked Russia’s once-vaunted space program, writes
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Unlike the rest of China, Shanghai sailed through the pandemic with little to no disruption from Covid.
Now, however, it seems like its lax interpretation of China’s broader Covid-zero policy has backfired, suggests https://trib.al/GII2wFs
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National identity is individualistic and even confusing. But that makes us who we are, says
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China must slash its oil demand to protect its economic and foreign policy ambitions, writes .
This will be a big blow to the world’s oil producers https://trib.al/gQgUjQK
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The Japanese yen keeps weakening, with big implications for markets
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Whether in Karachi, Cape Town or Sydney, kids wanted to be just like him
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Vladimir Putin has doubled down on the empire-or-death logic of the separatist leader who first ignited hostilities with Ukraine in 2014
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After watching Russia get hammered by Western sanctions, China will redouble efforts to become self-sufficient. It should do the opposite, says Nancy Qian
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More research is surfacing about the ways even mild Covid cases leave lingering effects on health in some people
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Why did Joe Biden, or Mitch McConnell, or Elizabeth Warren, or Jeb Bush, or Bernie Sanders get into politics in the first place?
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This could well be the biggest security breach in the history of decentralized finance
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The Fed has carte blanche to do what it needs to do, and the stock market still hasn’t received the memo
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No one should go into debt for their own wedding, let alone someone else’s
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Why is Europe giving Ukraine weapons with one hand and Russia cash with the other? There's a better way
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Aside from getting sick less, continued mask-wearing on public transportation will reduce snacking and annoying conversations – so what’s not to like? writes
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The FDA's age-50 cutoff for second boosters is perplexing because it's below the threshold typically considered high risk, writes
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"Just in time" manufacturing took some hits during the pandemic, but industrial CEOs aren’t about to drop the pursuit of greater efficiency in favor of a higher tolerance for slack
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Chewy must convince investors that buying Fido’s favorite food online is more than a passing pandemic fad
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There’s strong evolutionary pressure on any new Covid variant to evade antibodies generated by the vaccines or prior infection
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Nothing in the jobs report or recent consumer data gives the Fed any reason to temper aggressive rate increases
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Nothing in the jobs report or recent consumer data gives the Fed any reason to temper aggressive rate increases. Help me out here: why is the stock market not getting this?
https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-01/jobs-report-gives-the-fed-the-all-clear-to-go-all-out… via
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Not all lawmakers want to be president. Understanding their true goals can explain a lot about U.S. politics, says
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There’s strong evolutionary pressure on any new Covid variant to evade antibodies generated by the vaccines or prior infection
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Since the last quarter, the fear of a global recession has risen sharply, accompanied by falling hopes for higher earnings, writes https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-01/ukraine-and-the-fed-made-this-a-quarter-for-the-record-books-now-what?sref=2o0rZsF1…
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This chart is from Luca Paolini shows five-year stock performance relative to bonds against the spread of 10- and two-year bond yields, with a five-year lag. The ability of the yield curve to determine which asset class will do better over the following five years looks uncanny:
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Two things:
- Europe needs non-Russian gas. Lots of it.
- The bull-case for U.S. gas this decade runs through an LNG terminal.
https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-01/the-eu-should-buy-american-to-wean-off-russian-gas?sref=kOk687Pk… via
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As quarters go, this was one for the record books.
Two huge shocks dominate the landscape — the sharp hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
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“Everyone is going to have to get used to companies earning less,” says — who also points out that in the long term, this is a good thing.
Join him and on
Apr 1·Bloomberg Opinion·
Recession fears go 
; earnings prospects go 
: Q1 wrap
+1
Play recording
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Instead of adding a new tax to an absurdly complicated system, Biden should eliminate a gaping loophole in the existing tax code, writes
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The next time you are attending a formal presentation at a conference, ask yourself these questions:
Is this better than all of those Zoom calls I am turning down?
Is this better than the next best YouTube clip I might be watching?
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Charter-school enrollment has surged during the pandemic — but misguided new rules proposed by the Biden administration could reverse those gains
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Last call at the Robinhood saloon will be liquid, if people want it to be
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Saudi Arabia is the perfect example of why the "End of History" thesis is misguided, writes Robert D. Kaplan
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No one wants to hear it, but eventually you'll be commuting five days a week again, writes
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It looks as though the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson has been about as big a public opinion success as anything can be
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Of the world's major LNG exporters, the U.S. can expand capacity fastest to replace the natural gas that Europe has imported from Russia
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The EU’s problems with Warsaw and Budapest may seem to be from another time. That makes them no less important
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While it may take years before Russians face charges for their actions in Ukraine, history suggests they can't escape accountability forever
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This ain't new but it ain't getting better either. In Britain, dreams of setting foot on first rung of the property ladder get further out of reach, writes https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-01/personal-wealth-first-time-homebuyers-in-u-k-face-increasing-nightmare… via
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The U.S. and Europe need to do more to halt the dictatorial drift in Tunisia, says
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In Britain, dreams of setting foot on first rung of the property ladder get further out of reach, writes
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Between the war in Ukraine and the Fed tackling inflation, this was a quarter for the record books. looks at what comes next
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https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-01/after-putin-s-war-on-ukraine-is-there-still-a-global-marketplace…
After Russia, European corporate angst is stretching to China, as Covid-19, the Ukraine invasion and the increased risk of a Cold-War-style global divide accelerate a re-think of business ties and supply chains. Today's summit is unlikely to change that.
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Hal Brands offers three scenarios if Putin can't win the war in Ukraine: Moscow Spring, Wounded Giant or Tehran on the Volga
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After Ukraine, business ties to Russia are also prompting a rethink on China, writes
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Sanctions against Russia are hurting other countries, too, writes
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A more pressing challenge for AerCap is to convince shareholders that the blockbuster takeover of GE's leasing business will be a success
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New Delhi has pushed its homegrown RuPay as a patriotic alternative to global plastic.
But an internationalist approach may be a better bet, writes
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Ignore the yield curve at your peril, but it's not a foolproof indicator this time
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To keep their new residents happy, fast-growing Sun Belt cities need to evolve to meet the demands of their changing population. In other words, more Whole Foods Markets, writes
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Anti-Americanism is surging in China because of the war in Ukraine
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China's attitude over Ukraine was well-signaled by a document, a parade, and the clampdown in Hong Kong, writes
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It’s easy to see why Moscow may want India to bypass SWIFT. The question is, what does New Delhi get in return for this accommodation, besides cheap oil (a $35/barrel discount) and military hardware like batteries for the S-400 air defense system? My take:
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By any economic measure America and its allies are significantly more powerful than China, Russia and the autocracies https://trib.al/WwKmecZ
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The withdrawal of British judges from Hong Kong’s highest court is a significant blow to global confidence in the city’s rule of law, a major pillar of its success as a financial center
https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-31/hong-kong-faces-verdict-of-history-after-british-judges-quit-highest-court?sref=jR90f8Ni… via
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China might be able to subvert U.S. sanctions on Russia, but doing so would backfire, argues
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Hong Kong and China are protesting far too loudly over the resignation of British judges from the territory's highest court, writes
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A decision by Russia to cut off gas exports to Europe would entail some mutually assured destruction, says
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It’s not easy being a landlord during the pandemic, especially in Hong Kong.
And, soon, property owners will earn negative carry for the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. My latest for
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Rising rates and falling prices make Hong Kong a high-risk destination for property investors, says
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A$10 billion is a lot of money.
And it starts to bring Australia closer to the cyber defense budgets of allies like the US and UK.
But it's more than just money.
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Rates are still important for banks, but their profitability isn't tied as closely to the yield curve as it once was
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Elevated interest rates also make it more expensive to buy a house.
Black borrowers already pay higher mortgage rates than whites, and had the lowest approval rate by lenders nationwide for refinancing in 2020 compared with Whites, Hispanics and Asians
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Higher rates could have a series of negative consequences that would hit the young and people of color particularly hard.
One would be a slower pace of hiring. Those in service sectors such still face unpredictable schedules without stable benefits
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