The Greens’ Zack Polanski and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage are coming up behind Keir Starmer © FT montage/Getty Images
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Britain’s two-party system has been transformed by a series of elections.
With nearly all results counted, Labour and the Conservatives have lost hundreds of English council seats to Reform UK, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.
In the Welsh Parliament, Plaid Cymru is now the largest party, ending a century of Labour dominance. Reform came second. And in Scotland’s parliament, the Scottish National Party will remain the largest party, with Labour and Reform tied in second.
Labour’s share of the national vote, as calculated by the BBC, fell to just 17 per cent, behind Reform on 26 per cent, the Greens on 18 and in line with the Conservatives. It represents the lowest combined figure the main two parties have ever recorded.
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Labour's projected national vote share in the local elections has fallen to 17%

Local election projected national vote share (%)

Labour
Lib Dem
Green
Other
Conservative
Reform
In England, the north-west provides a clear example of the troubles for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour. The sea of red that once covered Greater Manchester and its surroundings has been reduced to a few splodges, replaced by green, Reform teal and Liberal Democrat orange.
In Wigan, an industrial town outside Manchester that Labour has controlled since 1974, the party failed to secure a single seat, with Reform winning 24 of the 25 council seats up for election.
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Labour has been swept away in the north-west, with Reform and the Greens both gaining

Wards coloured by largest party

Largest party by ward:
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Green
Reform
Ind/Other
Awaiting result
Metric Web
Metric Web
A similar story played out in Blackburn, Oldham and Burnley, with Labour all but wiped out, mostly to Reform’s benefit.
Meanwhile, Zack Polanski’s Greens won 18 of the 32 council seats up for election in Manchester, with Labour winning just six.
Many councils elect only one-third of councillors each year, blunting the scale of Labour’s losses and keeping them in power in many councils. Among the councils that Labour continues to control are Wigan and Manchester. Others have switched to no overall control (NOC), where no party has a majority.
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Winners of borough, district and unitary council elections in England

Controlling party

All series are visible.
Reform UK
Labour
Conservative
Green
Lib Dem
No overall control
Awaiting result
After
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Labour have lost control of nearly half of the councils they were defending

Changes to councils controlled by each party as a result of the 2026 local elections

Results for 101 of 136 councils
BeforeAfterNOCNOC48484242LabourLabour3434NOCNOCLabourLabour2222Lib DemLib Dem13131212ConservativeConservative1212Lib DemLib DemReform UKReform UK88ConservativeConservative77GreenGreen3311OtherOther29292222151511116633333322221111111111
Reform UK’s surge has been strongest in areas that voted heavily to leave the EU almost 10 years ago, according to an FT analysis of preliminary data from 105 wards.
In council wards that voted more than 70 per cent to leave the EU, Reform gained 46 percentage points on average, compared with the previous local election. In areas that voted to remain, it gained just 19 percentage points.
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Reform has gained most in areas that voted for Brexit in 2016

Change in vote share since last election (% points)

All series are visible.
Reform
Labour
1919232333334646-13-13-16-16-17-17-26-26
Labour’s fortunes in London have been less dire than elsewhere, with the party holding on to councils in Ealing, Hammersmith & Fulham and Camden.
The Greens took control of Waltham Forest and Hackney councils from Labour, and made gains in Haringey.
The Conservatives had a good night in west London, performing well in the well-heeled boroughs of Wandsworth, Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster. The Liberal Democrats consolidated their control in the south-west, winning every seat in Richmond-upon-Thames by squeezing out the Greens.
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Labour and the Conservatives have held on to many council seats in West London

Wards coloured by largest party

Largest party by ward:
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Green
Reform
Ind/Other
Awaiting result
Metric Web
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The Greens have performed best in areas with many young people. In wards where those aged 18-29 make up more than 40 per cent of the population, the Greens won 21 percentage points more votes than at the previous election.
In Oxford, the Greens were the largest party in nine of the 24 wards up for election, picking up votes in areas with high student populations.
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The Greens have gained in areas with many young people

Change in vote share since last election (% points)

All series are visible.
Green
Labour
4477131314142121-14-14-18-18-16-16-20-20-22-22
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party will remain the largest party at Holyrood, but has fallen short of a majority, winning 58 of the 129 seats available. However, there will be a pro-independence majority, of the SNP and the Scottish Greens, who won 15 seats.
Reform, which historically has performed less well in Scotland compared with England, won 17 seats. Labour also won 17 seats, ahead of the Conservatives on 12 and the Lib Dems on 10.
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LIVE Scottish parliament election results

Winning party by constituency or regional additional-member seat

All series are visible.
SNP
Reform UK
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
Green
In Wales, a century of Labour dominance has come to an end after the party finished in third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform. For the first time since devolution in 1999, Labour has failed to win the most votes in the Senedd.
Plaid Cymru has won 43 of the Senedd’s 96 seats, Reform 34 and Labour just nine. Five years ago, Labour won 30 out of what was then a total of 60 seats.
100
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Labour has been reduced to a handful of seats in Wales

Composition, % of seats by party

All series are visible.
Labour
Lib Dems
Plaid Cymru
Green
Other
Conservative
Ukip
Reform
Welsh Senedd
The Welsh Labour leader and outgoing first minister Eluned Morgan was among the casualties. The six seats in her constituency of Ceredigion Penfro were split between Plaid Cymru, Reform and the Conservatives.
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Party performance in Welsh Senedd election

Vote share

Metric Web
Metric Web
This story has been updated to correct the number of seats that Labour won in the Welsh Senedd in 2021.

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Quite apart from Labour’s losses, the real take away here is that we now have half of all Councils with no one party in control. A recipe for a mix of “do nothing” and “irrational compromise” . A real disaster for the country !
Not sure who’s the bigger clown, Farage or Polanski…
Remainers here are complaining that Brexiters haven’t learnt their lesson.

I totally agree. They haven’t. But Remainers haven’t learnt their lesson either: calling people (redacted) does not deal with their concerns over immigration, welfare and excessive taxation.

You people should try talking to each other, a bit of humility, a drop in the aggression and name-calling and the realisationyou both have valid points.
Look starmer is toast unless he pulls something out of the bag.

  • Bravery is the name of the game, go out fighting or wimper away.
  • Restart the levenson enquiry to put the wind up the heavily biased media and limit influence of enemy agents.
  • Stop all the money going into politics by giving a public funded amount to each party. Move further in decentralisation of power in westminster.
  • Then run on vote to rejoin the EU in some form due to economic and miltary reasons we are in a far different place than 10 years ago. As much as i would love to talk about a strong independant britain its for the birds.

We gave Labour a mandate to be brave and bold but sensible they have up to now fluffed it. Some good stuff doesnt reach the news and no story of where we are going. In this space i am concerned money that hates the UK is taking up this space.
labour were always gonna screw it up. its a party held hostage by its back benchers.

no party will be able to fix anything until they acknowledge the hard truth. costs need cutting and growth needs incentives
Interesting how many of the MPs on record saying Starmer should go or set a timeline are 2024 intake. Perhaps if they'd spent the first year vocally supporting the guy who got them into parliament they'd have more chance now of retaining their seat in the next GE?
thats because they never cared about him. he was just a convenient placeholder for them to get into parliament and then go full Karl Marx. i like Janan's article about the historical necessity of a Labour government. he basically argues that it was important for Labour to win once just to show people that a left wing govt isn't the answer to our problems.

whats funny is that the backbenchers have interpreted this as : we need MORE leftist policies. i lowkey want them to get what they want just so we can try their loony ideas and watch them fail even more spectacularly.

at this point im not really paying taxes anymore so i have nothing to lose. i just want the entertainment now
If Labour stood on a ticket of Ref#2
And no one else did
They would walk back to no 10 for second term no worries

If Labour stood on a ticket of Ref #2
And either / both greens /lib dems did the same
Labour would do well but might have to be a coalition government between the two main winners

Either way, this is now the only path back for labour
Will they grasp the nettle?
Few mention that Labour wanted to cancel these elections, to save money.
They didn’t.
lol "to save money"

more like to save themselves.

and it backfired pretty spectacularly. i went and voted against them specifically because they delayed the elections. no matter what you believe, democracy is sacred
To avoid certain defeat !
The map is out of date for East Anglia. Suffolk went Reform.
Highest probability threats to national economy and security are most likely climate change and Russia. So, why vote for an individual who denies the first threat and has just realised his ally against the other is probably in the other’s pocket?
Is this Starmer?
Not sure a suit and galsses from a Uk citizen is the same as a 5 mill bung from a thailand crypto investor.
Annoyingly Labour are still most likely to win the next election. Reform and the Tories will split the right wing vote, leaving Labour to come through on the inside, possibly with help from the liberals if they have a minority administration.
The graphs should list UKIP as essentially Reform. Had we had PR, UKIP would have had a strong cohort in Westminster from which to argue it's corner and to be exposed to greater scrutiny. Led by the Pied Piper of Hate, they are dangerous.
Remember Farage's speech about Van Rompuy in the European Parliament?
He is Trumpian. Why does he need £5m for personal security if he is such a wonderful leader?
he doesnt its int he back pocket init just needs to sell it to the public. Once in office i am sure he wont bother to hide it.
It was for personal securities
The elections show that Scotland is the civilised part of Britain :P
Wales is very polarised but would expect Plaid to have governance over there.
England.... Yeah
The country has been in a period of self harm for over 20 years. We need to get back to good old fashioned right wing capitalism. Small state, private enterprise and individual freedom and responsibility. The leftism so eagerly embraced has been a disaster.
Yes that has so worked so well in the States for the average Joe!!!
The U.K. is poorer that the poorest us state, and the average person is much better of in the USA. Why do people in the U.K. think we are superior?
By what measures? Health care ? I don't think so. Transport infrastructure ? I don't think so.
Old age pension? Help with care? Etc
By the very very very vague measure of ‘GDP per capita’, which means absolutely nothing for the layman. On all other measures that actually matter - life expectancy, healthcare results, education outcomes etc - the average person is much better off in the UK and Western European states than the US.
That is one of several valid approaches, but i think you are missing another pillar, without which the state can decline into a tyranny or ganster state like the USA. Can you guess what it is ?
As someone else highlighted, per capita, every state in the USA is wealthier than the UK. Embrace freedom and democracy and turn away from authoritarianism.
Sorry who is to embrace freedom and democracy? Can only presume you mean the USA with its DOJ and Congress doing the emperors bidding?
But it gets there at the cost of things being truly grim if you're in the bottom section of the income distribution, and very divided as a result. Is that a trade off we want? I'm really not sure it is.
This election shows the massive divide in attitude between England and Scotland. In Scotland reform gained essentially what the conservatives lost. That kind of makes sense to me. What’s happening in England looks a lot more like depressive self-harm behaviour to me.

Looking forward to more detailed analyses that look at who lost the absentee voters and how much reforms gains in England are due to voter turnout vs gaining voters from almost all parties.
Incredible self destruction by Labour. They could have stood firm on wfa, abolished triple lock and avoided having to raise ERs NI and we'd all be better off (safe for those who've had a lifetime to make their beds and now moan the young don't give them enough money).

Instead they caved to the boomer and the unions.

I'm thinking Reform at the GE. Only a gilts crisis will fix it. Greens could cause similar but they'll likely just tax the heel out of anyone earning anything or with any money put by and I can't bring myself to vote for a pro terrorist pro communist party.

The alternative is tories get their act together and become the party of pro growth, lower taxes, and smaller state.
Agree but first they should have thought of a narritive we are doing x because of Y, frame it as morale and greater good but no they thought like technocrats when politics is story telling.
How can you complain at technocratic decisions by Labour (which I fully support you in), and then say you’re thinking Reform in the GE? This is a party without any thought through reforms at all and one that simply wants to tear things down and complain about everything being bad, point fingers at scapegoats (immigrants) without any actually thought through reforms (ironically) to solve them? The Brits are supposedly pragmatic, not revolutionary because of our impatience and frustration.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party will remain the largest party at Holyrood, which would give it a clear mandate to demand a second independence referendum
Please enlighten me as to how a minority SNP government provides a clear mandate for a 'once in a generation' independence referendum?

12 years is not a generation by anyone's definition and a minority government is not aasign of overwhelming support.

This slaps of English political students odd obsession wwith the Scottish National Party.
The Scottish Greens also are committed to an independence referendum. SNP + Greens is a big majority in the Scottish Parliament.
If Holyrood used FPtP the SNP would have a massive majority. Despite their clear failings and the lunacy of independence ( Brexit on steroids), they continue to dominate Scottish politics.
The "once in a generation" line was certainly used but it has no basis in law and it certainly does not over-ride the fact that Scots have just voted in (again) two parties that stand squarely and clearly for independence.
Much as I dislike the idea you cannot bury your head in the sand.
Support for independence is running around 50-55%. These elections have returned a majority for independence supporting parties (SNP & Greens).
(Edited)
The U.K. is on an inevitable trajectory. Economically, the empire has gone, the national debt is maxxed out, growth is nil, Brexit was suicide, so the economic future is bleak.
Constitutionally, the U.K. is headed for break-up with the smaller constituent nations wanting out. A possible answer could have been a change to a federal arrangement (if the political class were capable of such change) but the U.K. is lopsided, with England’s size relative to the other nations making stable federalisation impossible. The U.K. will continue to be destabilised by its economic failure and its constitutional uncertainties. No government that is elected will ever perform any better than the previous one, no matter the party, no matter the leader. Get used to it.
You’re drawing a straight line forward from the bits you’re seeing, but life Is never straightforward. In the 1970s we were the “sick man of Europe”, by 2007, life in UK looked very hopeful….. Now, once again, the future doesn’t look good, but the best roses grow in a bed of manure.
Things may look relatively up or down for a time but my point is more about the long term trend. The economy, like the £, is in a long slow downward trajectory. North Sea oil propped things up for while during the late 80s and 90s and the financial mania of the 00s kept things going a while. Now the GFC, Brexit, Covid and two successive oil price shocks have used up our credit and returned things to trend. Dissatisfaction with the economy will exacerbate the problems with the current constitutional arrangements. In turn, constitutional instability will make the economy weaker. Things will break apart because no constitutional fixes, like federalism, can work. The Union was created for the purpose of empire (the Scots, having failed in their own attempt, decided to give it a go on England’s coat tails). Without the empire, there’s little point in the Union.
While I agree that the union of Scotland and England was an artefact of empire, Wales and Northern Ireland became part of the UK for other reasons.
Yes, Wales because it was conquered and NI because sectarianism provided the British with an excuse to divide Ireland. It was a deliberate policy to divide and weaken Irish nationalists, and came from a position of spite by the British.
(Edited)
The power of democracy.

Both Labour and Conservatives have failed to listen to what the people want. The population doesn’t understand why our countries debts are not addressed, why foreigners pour into our country without barriers and why if they work hard and pay their taxes those monies are frittered away on ridiculous levels of unsupportable social care to the extent many are riding the system by not working.

And now it’s their turn to speak.
‘…..doesn’t understand….now it’s their turn to speak’. There we have it.
Except the Reform voting areas are the main takers of the “ ridiculous levels of unsupportable social care “ aren’t they?

Taxpayers need to wake up to the fact that a vote for Reform is only going to mean more tax going to disability benefits etc in Reform areas.
There is a majority in Scotland for independence (SNP & Greens). In a democracy, there would now be a referendum.
Try and get the statistics right.
Yes there were 'areas' in the north that voted for Brexit. But the great bulk of Brexit votes (what matters in a referendum) came from the home counties and South West.
Indeed. The only major party at the time (2016) where a majority of their voters voted leave were the Conservatives. Tories of my acquaintance are completely in denial about this for some reason.
once the union influence gone - the working class will always vote for a Farage character.

Labour need to realise this.

The lower classes of the USA vote against free healthcare note.

Farage will put capital punishment referendum as way to win in 2029.
It really exposes British support for socialism for what it really was. Nothing to do with the ideology in Islington but ‘I want more of what others seem to have’. Labour can’t deliver on that today - and neither will Reform be able to.
(Edited)
Labour has gone from representing the working class to the welfare class, and sections of the middle class who can afford to pay more tax or who are state sector workers.
It takes a special kind of nutter that finds the socialist government they voted for isn’t irrational & populist enough, and goes all the way to vote Reform?
(Edited)
The problem is they didn’t vote for them, that is why Starmer got 1.4M fewer votes than Corbyn at the last election.

It takes a special kind of nutter to think Labour had effective policies and even worse support the mistakes they are making, taxing jobs and removing incentives for growth.

The is a real need not just for political leadership but for everyone everywhere to start looking after their families and their business so that work and jobs pays and build the virtuous circle that then allows tax to cover the necessities and else people and country feel safe and hopeful again.

This isn’t politics it’s about people, they are the ones that make the difference.

Starmer and all the people he recruits and fires need to come clean and be honest and say what they really think.
It’s time people think of society.
And of how hard and slow it is to bring change. It’s naive to accuse Labour for the decline.
Still seven seats in Scotland to be decided but so far:

SNP: 57
Labour: 17
Reform UK: 15
Green: 13
Conservative: 11
Liberal Democrats: 9

Need 65 seats for a majority but SNP have won more seats than Labour, Reform, Green and Conservatives combined.

SNP have won the Scottish general election Bigly :)
This is the story of Labour in Wales, it was always going to end badly.

Either the SNP comes clean about what it needs to be fixed or the people eventually find the alternative. Those alternatives have clearly been lacking.

The SNP have to move beyond blame, failure and corruption or they are out next time. So far they have got away with their failed past leaders, its going to have to come clean.
But will still fall short of an overall majority.
Which just proves that people vote for parties that give handouts. Once you have enough clients it’s easy to keep them as voters until it all collapses. Which it would if the uk wasn’t subsidising the whole thing.
Does anyone voting Green have a job that the State does not pay or subsidise?
I’d vote Green or LibDem in my local council election and I work for a US tech company

Come the GE I’ll vote Labour as Greens and LibDems don’t stand a chance here
Yes. But they are younger than you, so have more at stake in the planet's long term future.
Yes
If you are a working person, rather than a career ngo, charity, political adviser or politician or some other professional in media, you would know that the business you are working for is doing ok and likely growing its sales to the world outside of the EU, that old more jam if we sign up to more EU rules, isn't working any more.

With uk business growing sales to the world at 6% this year, this is starting to create confidence that we don't need that old remoaner stuff anymore.

While the new mantra is to diversify trade so you don't become dependent on one trade partner (the EU) britain is proving there is a good life outside the EU.

And Reforms wins are a manifestation of this growing confidence.
Yes, getting into bed with Trump is way better.
Apart from losing 8% of GDP by putting up barriers to trading with your closest trading partners (the EU - by the inevitability of geography), you could have also had all the global sales too. There was never anything stopping you selling anything to the outside world.
More made up or massaged numbers by miangst.

Small businesses that had EU countries as key markets have suffered from Brexit. Maybe for you the owners and workers of these businesses are politicians or career ngos?

As usual, uninformed comments galore from you.
Cymru am byth
Is that - Cymru am byth — o dan reolaeth y Saeson?
Labour simply do not have the imagination or the gumption to win the next election with the current PM and cabinet in place. They lack the communication skills and the economic vision to get Britain out of this mess we created 10 years ago (thanks to Nige- what a good bloke). Sadly, the country continues to prefer the cheeky chappie, who claims to totally understand their lot despite him being a Dulwich college graduate, an ex city boy, a Putin and Trump fanboy and receiving a £5 million gift from a friendly crypto billionaire (wish I had mates like that). I mean you have to have 0 critical thinking skills to believe he's an honest man of the people after that. Great political operator but terrible human being.
(Edited)
Nigel understands what people want, you are delusional if you think he is not. Everyone is counting for him to fulfil his promises. Also, he was voted in Clacton for the second time. so it doesn't matter what education he's got
Fooled us once, shame on him. Fooled us again, shame (and derision) on us.
Labour losing Wales for the first time is absolutely huge.
The performance of the Greens in wards with a higher proportion of young voters demonstrates that Labour’s lack of action on student loans has cost them. Indeed Reeve’s freezing of the repayment thresholds will have made the position worse.
Minorities
which if correct shows Labour has also ignored their issues. Epsom 2 weeks ago. What fun for any of the "Minorities" going about their lives. The Minorities who work in our hospitals, take care of our parents, we went to school with, are our colleagues and neighbours.
I was referring to the student minoritys and the young voter, not our hard working 'born overseas' people
I look at the results table and I think, we’re in deep doo-doo, I read the comments section and I think we’re not getting out of this one alive. Even here in the FT the crazies who think parties like the Greens are the answer are many and popular.
Reform. What are Mr and Mrs Gilt Market going to say about that? Doesn't look like they are going away.

Green's won't last, will drop to < 10% and be a spoiler.
Reform? I mean, why? Reform and the Greens have to be the two most nihilistic, hapless offerings I've ever seen put up for election. As for the Greens you say they won't last and maybe that's true in England but they are now winning constituency seats in Scotland and even though they only have 15 MSPs they will be running the Scottish Parliament with their whipping boys the SNP for the next five years.
(Edited)
This disaster sits firmly at Labours feet: they have not mentioned the 'B' word since they got in power and so by and large the electorate has no idea how damaging Brexit has been:

Trippled immigration,
Caused the small boats crisis,
Costing £2000 million a week,
Pushed taxes to the highest levels ever recorded,
Made our food and water quality poorer,
Shrank the City of London,
Pushed US business over to Ireland,
Cut exports to Europe,
Annexed Northern Ireland

The list goes on and on...

Farage should be being held for treason not being made PM.
Yawn. Move on…. The country has
No it hasn’t… a majority is people think Brexit was a mistake… a majority that’s large than people whoever thought it was a good idea
Moving on means doing something about it and fixing it rather than pretending we all received a unicorn in the post.
And yet the uneducated zero-aspiration masses still vote for reform (Brexit in reality) in droves.
(Edited)
"Reform UK’s surge has been strongest in areas that voted heavily to leave the EU almost 10 years ago"

65% of the over 65s voted Leave
65% of those with no educational qualifications voted Leave.

The classic far right populist nationalist demographic.

Brexit has been a abject failure, with no known upsides, causing untold long term economic damage to the UK.

But, BeLeavers refuse to acknowledge that they made a bad decision in 2016.

Instead, they double down and vote for the party that caused the problem.

Thats populism.
Ignore all the evidence.

Whilst voters think in this way, I can't see any positive future for the UK.
Prove to me that Britain is worse off out of the EU. You can start by comparing our growth with Germany, Italy and France.... Or how UK's productivity per capita compares to our EU peer nations over the period. Or the number of recessions we have had in that period compared to the mighty German EU overlords... We have outperformed our European counterparts in most of the economic metrics that matter, despite our appalling governments across that period.

You state a highly contentious point as though it is fact, which is typical of the arrogant and blunt contributions of most of those who resolutely believe themselves correct without knowing an awful lot about the topic.

Almost all the evidence for Brexit's purported failure (despite our objective economic outperformance) comes from counterfactual hypothesising from bodies who are firstly biased (due to being against Brexit before it happened, thus incentivised to say it has failed atfer the event) and secondly demonstrably awful at economic forecasting. Anything you can point to is essentially people who are bad at forecasting guessing at what 'may' have happened if we Remained in the EU, with very little scope for being told they are wrong because it's all made up! Forget the evidence that says actually Britain has done better out of the EU than our peers in it! Let's just write a report that assumes far higher growth than we were achieving before Brexit and far higher than our EU peers! There, Brexit failed!

Even if they are right (impossible to prove) then even then they cannot say that our underperformance is due to Brexit, because you cannot discount the failure of our appalling state to capitalise on the opportunities Brexit undeniably presented with the offsetting downsides.

I say this as someone who voted Remain and wishes we were still in the EU - your comment is reflective of the god awful level of comprehension and the blunt manner of communication that is at the root of why our government and consequently country is empowered to lie, cheat and obfuscate away their failures. It is YOU who is the populist, you just arrogantly believe that your version of a populist narrative is the correct one.
You can’t prove Britain is better or worse off out of the EU simply by saying Germany has done badly.

The better question is: “is Britain richer than it would have been inside the EU?" On that question, the evidence leans strongly toward no.

A 2025 NBER paper estimates that by 2025 Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6–8%, investment by 12–18%, employment by 3–4%, and productivity by 3–4%.

The OBR’s central assumption is that the post-Brexit UK-EU trading relationship will reduce UK long-run productivity by 4% versus remaining in the EU, with imports and exports each around 15% lower in the long run.

By Q3 2025, the UK was above Japan and Germany but behind France and Italy on real GDP growth since Q4 2019, according to a House of Commons/OECD-based comparison.

If you need more, check any reliable source.
(Edited)
As I said, that is all counter factual speculation.

Empirically speaking, the OBR systematically overstates the growth forecasts. There are graphs printed in these very paper showing how god awful they have been at it for about 20 years, literally nearly every time far too optimistic about our growth rates. Almost comedically wrong, comedically often. Plenty of research papers on this if you're interested. They are, factually, terrible at knowing what is going to happen and the rational position is thus to assume that they are terrible at knowing what would have happened. Very similar comment on the other 'reliable sources'. Economics is notoriously hard to predict and bias in the case or Brexit makes it even less useful. These are not controversial points or even poorly documented.

The only reality we have is what has happened, which is that our economic performance has been slightly to significantly better than our EU peers across many or most metrics.

I'm not saying we are better or worse off in the EU, and I voted Remain..I'm saying the certainty with which Remainders state Brexit has been a disaster is quite simply not supported by the facts, and such a strong position inevitably relies on very weak,.speculative reports by bodies that are empirically poor at this very job.
You’ve got absolutely nothing.
Other than the objective reality that Britain has outperformed its EU peers since Brexit and empirically supported fact that the opportunity cost hard ose Remain advocates point to is calculated by bodies that get their forecast wrong nearly 100% of the time. Go and look up the OBR's forecasting accuracy and then tell me why you find their Brexit analysis, which is far more complex and subjective variable dependant to be credible. If you can't or won't do it then your opinion is meaningless.

It isn't about what 'I've got'. I personally wish we were still in the EU. Just that the sneering certainty of the Remain arguments are informed more by culture and accidental omission, and that if you feel absolutely certain in this issue you almost certainly hold a simplistic and incomplete perspective.
It’s not just the OBR, every other respected financial and economic institution has backed up what common sense implies - that putting up barriers to trade with your nearest and richest trade partners crimps your trade. Even Goldman Sachs.
Your wasting your Time - Remoaners cannot see another future for the country and live in yester-year. Instead they hold the country back by harping on about old times, how life cannot exist without the EU, and don’t think what an awful organisation it is in its current form together with the simply awful punitive way it wishes to deal with the UK, or the potential benefits of being a country outside it.

It is they that have no vision and yet we could clear our debts and thrive
If there was any group harping on about the good old days it’s Farage and his supportes
(Edited)
Eg 1

The far right and their lobbyists invariably sing the praises of market de-regulation and sing about the huge economic benefits from cutting Red Tape.

Except when it comes to Brexit.
Leaving CU, leaving SM, leaving EU Food & Sanitary Agreement, leaving the EU terrorism database, losing EU Passporting rights in the SM, etc.

Show me any economic research from anywhere which shows higher trade and higher economic growth resulting from implementing brand new onerous and expensive to administer trade barriers.
Have you any ?

Eg
Post 2020, British food exporters require expensive vet certifications and expensive and complex admin to export any food to EU. Many small businesses have stopped.
Because of a Tory Hard Brexit.

It did NOT help UK trade or GDP.

Eg
Losing EU Passorting and mutual recognition of professional qualifications and regulators.
Can no longer sell financial products from London to EU clients.

It did NOT help UK trade and GDP.
It has really helped Paris, Frankfurt, Milan, Dublin, etc.

EU is 45% of UK trade.
Not changed for 10yrs.
EU is next door.
US isn't.
Aus isn't.
India isn't.
The UK is one of the most highly trade dependent economies in the OECD, driving 20-25% of GDP.

The UK has been badly effected by huge new trade barriers with by far its biggest trading partner.
No trade block is close to EU 45%.
These trade barriers have contributed to todays economic mess.

What happened to the "immediate" marvellous US trade deal post Brexit ??
We're now 10yrs on.
US is 15% of UK trade.
Has Kemi or Nige mentioned it recently ?

The biggest new post Brexit trade deal by the Tories ?

Australia.
1% of UK trade - completely irrelevant
And hopelessly one sided against UK.
Ask a farmer, a group which the far right adore subsidising.
Excellent points
(Edited)
You state a highly contentious point as though it is fact, which is typical of the arrogant and blunt contributions of most of those who resolutely believe themselves correct without knowing an awful lot about the topic. [...]

I say this as someone who voted Remain and wishes we were still in the EU - your comment is reflective of the god awful level of comprehension and the blunt manner of communication that is at the root of why our government and consequently country is empowered to lie, cheat and obfuscate away their failures. It is YOU who is the populist, you just arrogantly believe that your version of a populist narrative is the correct one.
I've concluded that it's less arrogance and more something that amounts to an article of faith, sometimes with a moral dimension, for commentators of this type. It's certainly not a rational perspective and no amount of data or rational argument can make any difference. Political conviction not reached via rational means generates a kind of moral certitude over what, to them, is self-evidently true and, in turn, incredulity among other conversation-terminating patterns (of which Ex Tory's 'far right populist nationalist' is a textbook example).
Some are better at hiding that incredulity than others, some are better at dressing it up in civility, but something like it is always there underneath. If it weren't, they'd be able to acknowledge valid perspective while agreeing to disagree.
"You cannot reason a person out of a position he did not reason himself into in the first place." (Jonathan Swift)

I could link several recent comment threads where I tried. They never engage with material and factual evidence. Sometimes they open with overt hostility, sometimes they begin reasonably but, when they find they can't rebut your arguments, they become hostile to some greater or lesser degree.
It's deeply saddening and, as you said, it's deeply corrosive to political discourse. Cf. Roger Scruton's essays on the "pre-political first-person-plural [the 'we']" and the sense of "shared home [in which we endure or enjoy the consequences of every political decision]" which is the source of democratic legitimacy, the purpose of the state, its relationship with the individual and how social mores actually develop. The latter of the following is worth reading, even if you're not a conservative.
That a Remain voter feels compelled to defend Leave's economic record against a fellow Remainer illustrates exactly how corrosive the faith-based approach to this debate has become — it fractures even its own side.
It goes further than that: internationalists who disapprove of the concept of the nation state repudiate the very things that enable political agency, rights and legal protections required to hold and articulate the perspective they do.
There's also an element of values. Those who're most fiercely opposed to brexit usually contemplate only material (eg economic) considerations, but there are other robust arguments for leaving that an intellectually honest person can accept as valid and legitimate and still have voted Remain.
Brexit was not about economics, it was about the threat of violence - it was a reaction to what was observed in Germany in 2015-16 after Merkel allowed 1m Syrians and Iraqis in, against the backdrop of ISIS.

You don't need a qualification to make this legitimate link and be concerned . And ironically you need a qualification to understand the nuances of economics.

The Brexit vote was not about economics.
Reform I can understand; I despise them, but I can understand what they're trying to sell. Greens, on the other hand - it genuinely scares me that a large number of people voted for them. What sort of alternative reality they have in their minds is difficult to comprehend...
I’d describe myself as a committed environmentalist. But the Greens no longer represent that, just hyper left-wing popularism. Oh, and of course enlarging breasts with hypnosis!
(Edited)
But the Greens no longer represent that, just hyper left-wing popularism.
This is it. Arguably, the Greens are not even about environmentalism anymore. If they were, they'd accept the logic of nuclear power as a medium term solution to this climate emergency that must be addressed at all costs.

(As an aside, nuclear waste is not automatically the problem it's made out to be. There are various ways that waste can be "burned" to produce yet more energy and substantially reduce the harmfulness of conventional nuclear waste.)

Economically, the Greens would be a much greater threat than Labour, or potentially even than Reform, if Polanski had his way:


It's a long interview, skip the first half if interested only in his economic views.
They don’t know - many are young, influenceable and have student debts.
More than 24 hours on and most results aren’t in. And we’re supposed to be in the digital age... How difficult can it be to count a bunch of votes? I have taken part in counting ballots several times in the past. It’s not a challenging task. Yet each time there’s a new election the results come in slower and slower.

There’s a certain irony in a nation that pioneered the industrial revolution now being paralysed by the logistics of counting paper ballots.
There’s no rush… counting doesn’t start until the next day
Two words - 'Oh dear.'
The UK has finally got an accurate representation of its core sub-populations.

The parties (whether they admit it or not) now neatly represent the following population groups, alongside a rough estimate of their national proportion:
  • Labour: urban graduates, academics and public sector workers (25%)
  • Lib Dem: NIMBYs and nice wealthy boomers (10%)
  • Conservative: business owners, landed interests and mean wealthy boomers (10%)
  • Green: Woke warriors, eco-loons and (strangely) Islamists (10%)
  • Reform: white working class (45%)
I suppose this bodes well for Reform.
(Edited)
Uhhhh nope. Or at least no to Labour & Green.

  • Labour: those who were unaware that Labour are now just an option to let Reform in
  • Green: urban graduates, academics, higher earning public sector workers*
* Lower earning public sector may still vote Labour, but many haveshifted to Reform.

You've also overestimated Reform (probably closer to 35%) and underestimated both Green and Lib Dems.
(Edited)
Show me an academic that would vote for someone who claimed to be able to enlarge breasts via hypnosis.

(Edited)

Brian Rappert - literally the Green councillor I elected yesterday...

Brian is a professor at the University of Exeter
Wanna give me a harder question next time?
So you do believe that breasts can be enlarged with hypnosis?

Snake oil to the left, snake oil to right…
Did I say that?
oh dear!
Wild take considering reform are for the working class when 2/3 of donations came from foreign entities and they have taken the most money from political interest groups this year compared to all the other parties.
Yes. Like all political parties.

Keep wailing like a baby about it.
Not a bad take, but any backup for those percentages ? In all three cases, your 10% figure is too low IMO.
Oh right - so let's bring in wotsisname from Manchester to help the party.
He obviously knows how to win votes for Labour
Although immigration needs to be better controlled, it is certainly NOT the source of all our woes.

Farage et al campaign on that and 20mph speed safety limits as if solving that would suddenly bring back the good old days.

When will people realise that for all his pint & a fag image, economic growth is the absolute key to improving our lot. That means promoting innovation, encouraging businesses and doing all this with a sense of concerted direction.

I see nothing in Reform that would help in this regard.
Although immigration needs to be better controlled, it is certainly NOT the source of all our woes.
But like all good propaganda, it helps to create an outgroup - typically one with limited power, size and ability to express itself.

Make them the enemy, and tell 'your' people that said outgroup's removal will solve all those problems. It's a simple message. It has a lot of power, too. It's also incredibly dangerous.
People want simple answers to massively complicated situations which are ultimately making their lives worse
No politician is prepared to look the electorate in the eye and tell them it will get worse in the next 4 years before it can get better
Therefore we’ll just sleepwalk into a series of crises and try to fan the fire when they come
All the while Farage and his donors retreat to their private islands.
😀
Bravo!
You’d be lucky if more than 20% of the electorate put real economic growth in their top 3 priorities.
It's not immigration. It's unskilled, Islamic, immigration.

The same reason for the Brexit vote, after what was observed in Germany after Merkel allowed 1m Syrian and Iraqis in.

It beggers belief that people think Brexit was about economics, as if the electorate are well versed in comparative advantage.
Reform voters believe their party will return Britain back to the Britain of the 1960s- what they fail to realise is that it’s never coming back.
Of all the parties, they are the only one with core members who publically state the need to dismantle the Welfare Estate.
Reform UK are the only party that can save Great Britain. We must deport every single migrant immediately and remove all state welfare.
Not sure if you know that Great in front of Britain is merely a geographical indicator.
Since most people in “Great Britain” are descended (at some) from migrants that will not leave many people left !
You realise a significant proportion of Reform voters are on welfare...

Welfare voters skew Tory first and Reform second.
Yeah and 14% of the population would be gone. The economy would collapse even more is the only result you racist will face.
I assume an ironic post, or, if not, moronic
The biggest share of state welfare goes to pensioners. I'm sure they'll be absolutely delighted with this plan.
Great idea. Then we can close all hospitals (whose function depends on all those immigrants day and night), which will save money and make the country younger and more dynamic (by letting the ill and old pass away). Sounds wonderful.
You will find that amongst the informed, people like you will always come across as foolish.
My daughter was born in Ireland. The rest of us were born in the UK. She’s 13, am I going to have to tell her she’s being deported?

You know we’re all descended from migrants right?
Satire?
Deport the deplorables
Which ones? The Reform voters, or the private equity managers?
(Edited)
Yes get rid of Farage and his like
Having not satisfied themselves with the act of economic self-harm that was Brexit (despite everyone else warning them what was going to happen) the same bunch are voting for Farage's new project, having learned nothing.
And it wouldn't have happened if our chattering classes (of which I'm certain you are one) had learned a thing from their last beating, and now fully deserve today's battering.

The arrogance knows no boundaries.

Farage is the only major leader who has explicitly stated that he wants want the British majority want (topics like immigration), and implicitly suggested that wants what the educated right wing want (an end to tax rises on the productive to pay for unproductive welfare expansion, a reigning in of state bloat, right on social signalling and growth blocking regulation). He will be the next Prime minister unless the other parties emerge from their bubble and return to the real world. They won't of course, because they so firmly believe that business as usual is the only option, and for better or worse it will be Farage as in at the next GE (and more important Tice and Yusuf in with him).
For better or worse? It'll be worse. Much much worse.

Farage, like other populists, rings that bells telling people that he knows what all the problems are and how to fix them. Superficially it sounds very good. However, if / when he gets to sit in the hot seat he'll not know what to do. Brexit remember was going to stop unwanted immigration. Instead the UK simply imported a large number of (rather vital in some cases) immigrants from non-EU countries instead. That was not what he promised. Similar with the extra millions for the NHS. Didn't happen. Of course, he blames others....

Wouldn't it be nice if Farage and his mates actually had costed policies that made sense. Cutting taxes is all very good so long as the Government also cuts expenditure or somehow otherwise manages the economy in a stable manner. Where are the populists' costed policies? Nowhere to be seen. They rely on the magic money tree instead.

Farage, it seems to me, largely wants to become PM for his own self-aggrandisement and not for our benefit. I don't want a PM like that.
As is common in politics, his public fiscal plans are clearly unrealistic and exist simply as a means of winning the populist vote. No arguments there. Doesn't take a genius to figure the tax cuts need to be funded somehow and it doesn't take a genius to understand that it won't be popular to state that to the mouth breathers (90% of the electorate) when you are trying to build a base of support. He is playing the game. Lying. Just like Starmer lied in his manifesto and every single Tory leader before him lied. They are all liars and say what will be popular, and it's disingenuous to pretend that is a Farage issue alone.

If you don't believe that he (and especially Ticr and Yusuf) actually want to aggressively cut state spending along side regulation then you haven't heard any long form interviews with any of them. Clear as day, they all believe fundamentally believe in smaller state. Farage is the showman, he is putting on a show and winning votes, the guys directly beside him are are serious people (far better qualified than nearly any major politician of the rectn history) who are clearly aligned in the political and economic views. If you don't believe me then do yourself a favour and get some Tice podcasts out. He may surprise you.

That isnt to say Reform will succeed. I think they will fail due to structural barriers, an antagonistic media class and the fact that many of his voters will actively hate the cuts that need to happen and will deserve him at the first sign of the hardship that is needed. Exactly the same as slimy, weak Osborne chickened out in 2012. And we will be back to business as usual, which is low productivity, high regulation, high tax and us all getting gradually poorer. But he is the only one who has even a chance of affecting the change that I and many other educated believe is needed.
Farage & Co will be enthusiastically cheering on cutting welfare until the press finds a sad story of a reform true believer that has been impacted and will run wild with it. This will be then multiplied 100x and they will backtrack stung by the negative headlines and pushback from their voters (“cut welfare for ‘them’ not me!!!”)

Plus ça change
“Structural barriers” = the real world. Defence spending needs to go up, no money for tax cuts. Deregulation means lower standards (water sewage). Turns out people don’t like lower standards. Reform have no actual ideas on supply side reform because the best win here is closer to the largest market on the U.K. doorstep, but that’s against their ideology.
Farage is responsible for the biggest economic suicidal note since ww2! I like the beer and fag and man of the people act, and would welcome him as my pub landlord, local shady car salesman or school janitor, but not a lot else. Seeing him on the world stage would be rather an embarrassment!
Thats not the educated right: if they were educated they wouldn't be voting for parties who instituted the biggest welfare expansion in the form of the triple lock.
(Edited)
So i appreciate your analysis on what Reform are saying and theoretically what they believe in. But as Reform tend to win their support from the very unproductive they critisise - pensioners and the too large group of unskilled workers who supplement wages with benefits. The psycology of it is, well i may be on benefits, but its the other scroungers that is the problem.

With Reform now seeing some power in councils etc., they cant actually do anything, or cut anything, especially in social care, because its what their powerbase is built on.

Their powerbase then will crack, as they will have to lean more heavily on their internally unifying anti-migration message, but that only gets them so far, and is no solid base of a working coaliton.
Honestly, I despair of any system that gives someone quite as deluded as you a vote.
Its absurd.
Brexit fault lines? No, the same issue (immigration) remains the only issue for a lot of the people who voted Brexit and now Reform. Call it what it is.
Brexit trippled immigration and yet Labour have not made that crystal clear to the electorate. It is literally the fault of the Brexiters that immigration is so high but Labour have not mentioned it - they wouldn't know the art of politics if it hit them around the head.
The tripling of immigration is on the Tories and not Brexit. There was no need for that at all.

And dont give me that “we need immigration because Brits dont work” bs. Brits have worked hard for centuries. Brits are not genetically lazy. Modern welfare policies have failed and disincentivise work.
He’s too right wing, too left wing, too centrist, too boring. He’s beholden to the Muslims, to the Israelis, to the nationalists, to the globalists.

He’s made mistakes and the country has its challenges, but the electorate are not even close to understanding them let alone capable of agreeing to a set of solutions.
Divided brittin
(Edited)
The problem with Starmer is the complete lack of credible leadership. His authority in the parliamentary Labour Party has been shot ever since the disorganised climb down on the modest welfare reform his government proposed.

I don’t think anything he has done has been particularly disastrous or crazy (except perhaps that Chagos island deal, but that’s inconsequential in the greater scheme of things), but it’s really hard to tell what he stands for, in particular, relative to the grand promises of reform that were made. They delivered on various tax raises but postponed serious reforms and savings into the indefinite future and all while governing on the face of it with a huge majority. That’s the other side of the medal: diffuse leadership and agenda meet diffuse criticism.
AI are going to serious undermine income tax which will be hard to sustain for the young of UK when I. direct competition with AI and the Indian labour force looking for new careers. Energy tax revenue will also fall sharply He has not prepared the UK for AI. in education the lack of power given to teachers to rein in poor parenting and the dire impact that has on the mental health of thier offspring has not been reversed. Giving the teenager down trodden by poor parents and lack of power in education to reverse it consequences is not going to be addresses by option but fake jobs for NEETs And as for defense !!
It stated well before that. He ran to be party leader through duplicity abandoning his 10 pledges as soon as he got in. Absolutely no principles which has caught up with him.
The wisest comment on here.
So Leave voters have not learnt anything in the last 10 years? God help us
How can they- average IQs are demonstrably lower than average.
And I’m stuck taking money from my family to give to theirs.
Madness.
Join me in voting Reform. Nigel ap Farage will be scream.

These results are a huge step towards the cliff.

Pushing my compatriots over is my dearest wish.

Too many soft landings.
(Edited)
I would not vote for that odious little spiv for all the tea in China- and shaman anyone that does.
Why has our economy performed better than Germany and France this decade outside the EU?
Because it is a bubble - which explains why the UK has to pay the highest borrowing costs in the G7
(Edited)

Why has our economy performed better than Germany and France this decade outside the EU?
That might mean something if the three economies were broadly similar. They are not!

Germany's economic output includes a large element of manufacturing and heavy engineering ...which have been hit badly by the war in Ukraine (high energy costs) and lower export demand, especially from China. The UK has faced the same risk factors but has been less affected because we have a differently-shaped economy, obviously.

France has been protected somewhat from the energy shock because of their nuclear energy supplies. Its economy is much more dependent on the export of agricultural produce than the UK. We are a net importer of food. France is a net exporter. This is a very large difference.

The UK's economy is largely service-based. So it's very different to France and Germany. Why should our economic output numbers be comparable at all? Actually, they are not.

So the fact that the UK economy has done slightly better than Germany recently and on a par with France means very little. They are very different beasts altogether. The only meaningful comparison is between UK-in-the-EU compared with UK-out-of-the-EU and that sort of comparison relies on expert analysis....and most agree (the vast majority) that we would have done far better if Brexit had not happened.

Is that clear?
In fact estimates are that we are 8% poorer as a result of Brexit - excellent episode on The Rest is Money on this
I recall before Brexit, the new media was full of economic collapse warnings. Funny how none of it materialised.
Take a look at GDP per capita then come back.
Yes, good point. Germany and France have nothing, not even potholes.
It hasn't. All three countries have stagnated in the last decade, and France is somewhat better off.
The counter-factual by the way is that the UK was growing consistently and strongly faster than both France and Germany before the Brexit vote. It is a fundamentally more dynamic economy ruined by the poor voting choices of people who are unwilling to make the effort to educate themselves and work productivity, and blame foreigners for their fecklessness
Because you don't have to be a member of the EU to have free trade agreements with the EU. And even WTO rules is ok for most trade.
Prove to me that Britain is worse off out of the EU. You can start by comparing our growth with Germany, Italy and France.... Or how UK's productivity per capita compares to our EU peer nations over the period. Or the number of recessions we have had in that period compared to the mighty German EU overlords...

In my experience, those making pithy, arrogant, quickly dismissive comments about Brexit usual know nearly nothing about it. I voted Remain and I'm still not sure whether the decision to leave the EU was a net positive or negative.

Even if you can make numerical arguments to suggest it was a negative (and any such argument would be incomplete, as there are many, many numerical arguments to the upside) it is impossible to say it was the fault of Brexit and not the fault of our demonstrably incompetent government to capitalise more effectively on the obvious opportunities afforded to us. I voted Remain not because I thought Britain in the EU was good necessarily, more that I knew our governance was (and still is) so bad our lack of sovereignty actually shielded us from our own ineptitude....
Mighty German overlords 😂 Brexit was great decision the UK is so much better off. Are you really that deluded? Just give me one advantage of brexshit? Just one please?
Novel and overbearing regulation and legislation such as CSRD, CS3D, methane regulation and the AI act are examples of EU initiatives that we are free to adopt or ignore as we wish.

We couldn't easily enact a social media ban for under-16s or repeal or override aspects of MiFID II, if we wanted to, were we still a member state. (Whether either is a good idea is another matter.)

Medicines licensing is an underappreciated consideration. Under EU law, medicines licensing is not an exclusive EU competence, so a drug that is legal in one MS is not automatically legal in another. Metamizole is one such example. The MHRA is also at liberty to expedite market authorisation and/or adopt divergent policy in a way that it could not prior to brexit.

Brexit resolved the constitutional incompatibility of supranational law that still hangs over Germany (c.f. the Bundesverfassungsgericht and the "solange" cases and the BverfG's ruling of 5 May 2020 in respect of the ECB's PSPP).

Whether any of these things justify brexit is also another matter, but you did ask for "just one" example of a brexit benefit.
In fairness, it's not possible to prove that the UK is not better off outside of the EU than it is to prove it is better off.

The OBR estimate of 4-8% is just that, an estimate but, between wars in Europe and the Middle East, pandemic, energy and inflation shock, a bear market, and several other things, there has been no "normal" at all since brexit went into effect on 1 January 2021 on which to provide a post-brexit baseline comparable with prex-brexit baseline.
Are people more concerned by economic or immigration policies? Would our quality of life be improved if the 1 in 8 people who migrated into the country in the last 20 years hadn’t? For some reason I think the answers to these questions are more obvious to those outside of the managerial classes.
Stop migrant hotels in cities and towns would of certainly improved their results.
Tell us what we should have voted for though
Time for PR for Westminster & English Councils.
And for general elections, too.

It would be the brave choice, and would keep the far right out of power. Sadly, Starmer is not that brave, and it will be Britain's undoing.
Bye bye Keir... Bye Bye!
You will not be missed
Hi hi hi double digit mortgage rates!
He will be missed if they bring in either Raynor or Burnham, believe me. I'm still sometimes shocked at how these two are anywhere near the top seat. Frightening really....

God Labour are awful, aren't they? It's like they are actively trying to destroy their party.