Tracy Alloway

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Tracy Alloway
@tracyalloway
Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
New Yorklinktr.ee/tracyallowayJoined February 2009

Tracy Alloway’s Tweets

Everything works until someone wakes up and decides to sell FTT in size, at a time when FTX can’t get more money to prop up the market. Price anchors gone and the whole thing comes crashing down, and we all wake up and realize that FTT was really Fuzzy Tony Toucan all along. /END
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And you can then take that loan and use it to buy your tokens at a brand new price of $250 This is obviously all very simplified but it reminds me of the power of a price anchor, particularly for Beanie Babie… Oops… I mean tokens!
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And since FTX has so many FTTs, your collection of tokens that was once worth a collective zero, is now worth millions. You can go to a bank and explain that you have millions of dollars worth of tokens that you can use as collateral for a loan. 8/
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Instead of a mail order price list, you can ‘set’ the price by issuing the tokens for free, and then buying some of them back for $200. Now an asset that was worth $0, can be booked at $200. That’s the new market price, which you influenced. 7/
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Now let’s go to to FTX and its token FTT. FTT wasn’t bought from a shop. It doesn’t have any value beyond what people are willing to pay for it. But just like with Fuzzy Toucan Tony, you can influence this. /6
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That Beanie Baby that you bought for $5, let’s call him ‘Fuzzy Toucan Tony,’ can go for $20 because that’s what you say he’s worth and people are reading your price guides and they believe you. You can now sell your Fuzzy Toucan Tony into the market and make a $15 profit. 5/
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So you start making up prices for ‘collectible’ Beanie Babies. Suddenly, not only are you making money by selling a price list to interested collectors (this is the 90s so it’s mail order), but you’re also the de facto price setter for specific Beanie Babies. 4/
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You spot an opportunity to create a pricing service. Not only can you set the price on your own Beanies, but you can also fill a market gap by providing prices for Beanie Babies that aren’t being sold in shops - instead they’re being sold by collectors in a secondary market. 3/
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Imagine you have 10 beanie babies and you’re not really sure how much they’re worth. This is the very start of the craze and there’s no real ‘market’ yet. Local shops are just selling them for $4-$5 each. 2/
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Quelle surprise.
Quote Tweet
CoinDesk
@CoinDesk
SCOOP: @binance is highly unlikely to go through with its proposed rescue of @FTX_Official after glancing at crypto exchange's books, according to a person familiar with the matter. @IanAllison123 reports. trib.al/Gb2eXmC
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Good morning to everyone, but especially to Tether and Tron who are still managing to *somehow* hang in there while the rest of crypto goes belly up.
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2008: Investors shocked as Deutsche Bank opts to not call its LT2 debt in the interests of prudent capital management 2022: Investors shocked as crypto exchange runs into trouble a day after saying everything’s fine & tweeting a gif of Scrooge McDuck jumping into a pile of gold
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I have an idea. What if crypto investors agree to pay a small fee to create a new DAO token. The DAO will be responsible for distributing tokens to key market players to be used as a liquidity backstop in times of market stress. We can call it ‘We’veComeFullCircle DAO’
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All we need is Jho Low to show up on the Twitch stream with Do Kwon and Martin Shkreli to talk about FTX and the simulation will be confirmed.
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SHKRELI JUST SHOWED UP.
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Tracy Alloway
@tracyalloway
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On the day Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX gets taken over by CZ’s Binance after spending the year bailing everyone else out, fugitive crypto founder Do Kwon shows up on Twitch to give interviews. And that’s how you know it can always get crazier in crypto. twitch.tv/uponlytv
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Be right back - factoring the FTX takeover into financial conditions.
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
How many different organizations/non-profits etc have been beneficiaries of the SBF cash firehose over the last year?
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This is a really good podcast episode.
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Tracy Alloway
@tracyalloway
A VERY SPECIAL ODD LOTS - THE SHADOW IS BORN If you’ve ever wondered why repo became such a thing, then this the episode for you. @TheStalwart and I bring back Josh Younger to talk about how the modern repo market came into being and why it matters now. bloomberg.com/news/features/
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Also ICYMI - The Odd Lots episode with Josh Younger on the history of shadow banking and how a big part of it was born out of an economic period similar to today's environment is also in YouTube form:
youtube.com
Josh Younger on the Origin Story of the Shadow Banking System | Odd...
There are a bunch of historical analogies that people like to reach for in order to describe some of the economic trends we're seeing today. There's obviousl...
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New Odd Lots! &I recorded this with a while ago but it's VERY relevant after Facebook's disastrous earnings last week For years, internet giants printed money but that's changing. We dive into one reason why - the advertising 👇👇
bloomberg.com
Mark Bergen on Apple's Threat to the Online Ad Industry
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple PodcastsListen to Odd Lots on Spotify Subscribe to the newsletterAfter years of basically printing money, the big online Internet behemoths are starting to stumble for...
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Petition for to run Twitter. Blue checks are removed completely, and instead everyone has to verify themselves by pinning a long-form bio that outlines their struggles with alcoholism, the dark side of small town living, or that time they went to Maine.
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This chart shows the key tension for the Fed now. Its rate hikes are successfully clobbering housing activity. But that's not really spilling over elsewhere. And in fact the US labor market is now beating expectations at the fastest pace in 7 months.
bloomberg.com
Labor Data Is Beating Expectations at The Fastest Pace In Seven Months
We just got the latest ADP Employment report, and it came in nicely ahead of expectations with 239,000 private jobs versus expectations for 185,000.
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It was a pleasure to join and for this podcast The transcript is especially helpful
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
EXTRA ODD LOTS: The BIS is out with a new report on the global impacts of a booming $USD. So its head of research @HyunSongShin came on to talk with me and @tracyalloway about what they found, and the "tripwires" strewn throughout the financial system bloomberg.com/news/articles/
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Gotta add a new risk factor for negative memes.
Quote Tweet
Alessandro Aimone
@aimoneale
Credit Suisse’s LCR took a dive in October triggered by what the bank called “negative press and social media coverage”. One or more unspecified legal entities briefly breached certain liquidity requirements during the period. risk.net/risk-quantum/7
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Shameless self-promotion time. I had the privilege to talk about my sliver of the economy with and on Odd Lots. It was a treat to be on a show that I listen to regularly.
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
NEW ODD LOTS: We finally did a barge episode. @tracyalloway and I spoke to @ottoscholl, @AntonPosner and Margo Brock, about how a historic Midwest drought is creating a Mississippi river supply chain crisis, affecting the grain trade and other industries bloomberg.com/news/articles/
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NEW ODD LOTS: We finally did a barge episode. and I spoke to , @AntonPosner and Margo Brock, about how a historic Midwest drought is creating a Mississippi river supply chain crisis, affecting the grain trade and other industries
bloomberg.com
A Midwest Drought Is Creating a Supply Chain Crisis on the Mississippi River
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple PodcastsListen to Odd Lots on SpotifySubscribe to the Odd Lots newsletter
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Overheard the most Odd Lots conversation ever on last night. Passenger is a purchasing manager, talking about how supply chain issues and volatility in metals prices (nickel) are making her job difficult, plus her train is always late due to freight congestion.
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My new business plan is to get a bunch of hard copies of the latest edition of , have sign them, and then auction them off to the highest bidder.
Quote Tweet
Businessweek
@BW
Crypto isn't going away, so we asked @matt_levine to help us understand it. He came back with 62,000 words. (We edited it down to 40,000). This is The Crypto Story bloom.bg/thecryptostory
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Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos arguing that the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy is "for all intents and purposes, already broken." Just three of the 10-year JGBs that are eligible for the BOJ's fixed rate buying operations are trading at or below the 25bps yield cap
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Transcript: Roubini Predicts a Crisis Worse Than the 70s Transcript of my podcast with ⁦⁩ & ⁦⁩ Based on of my book Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future & How To Survive Them littlebrown.com/titles/nouriel
bloomberg.com
Transcript: Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Worse' Than the 1970s
The Fed won’t pivot, it will “wimp out” says Dr. Doom. 
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The reason Americans take such an interest in the UK is because it allows them to observe chaotic parliamentary politics and EM style debt and currency crises without having to learn a new language.
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Odd Lots podcast: Nouriel Roubini Predicts A Crisis “Worse” Than The 1970s! Great that my podcast with and is now out on multiple platforms including also You Tube youtu.be/1RYGWwn88wQ
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
Check out the episode on: Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/396tdc
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Worst liquidity conditions since the depths of the 2020 Covid sell-off and the 2008 financial crisis, according to BofA's latest survey of fund managers:
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Good morning to everyone, but especially to the US securitization desks finding out their Japanese anchor client is no longer in the market for deals.
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NEW ODD LOTS: It's the return of @JigarShahDC. Last time he spoke with me and he ran a small office at the DoE. Now, with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, It's a $300B+ office, making him a huge player in the energy transition
bloomberg.com
Jigar Shah Just Became One of the Most Important Players in the Energy Transition
A small office inside the Energy Department has a lot of money to deploy.
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What if aggressive rate increases are just incompatible with America's political reality? A central bank explicitly trying to increase unemployment, raise housing costs & decrease wealth to fight a hypothetical scenario of unanchored inflation expectations seems like a hard sell
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What if social security recipients aren't receiving the biggest benefits increase since 1982 because of automatic inflation indexing, but because their performance reviews were just really good this year? Like, Grandma Mildred baked some wonderful pies. Have we thought of that?
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Good morning to everyone, but especially to the bond investors now locked in an ultimate cage fight with the BoE. 30-year gilt yields hit 5% this morning.
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Ahem. *BOE'S BAILEY SAYS `WE WILL BE OUT' BY THE END OF THE WEEK
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Tracy Alloway
@tracyalloway
On a serious note, this Friday (when the BoE's temporary market stability operations are scheduled to end) is gonna be interesting
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China’s party mouthpiece “People’s Daily” publishes Op-Ed “Zero COVID is sustainable and must be continued” which makes the case for the “economic affordability” and the “moral and political necessity” of Zero COVID. Well there goes “China pivot” too opinion.people.com.cn/n1/2022/1011/c
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