Chad P. Bown
Chad P. Bown
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, | Co-host podcast with | I think about trade. and people. and trade. | he/him
Chad P. Bown’s Tweets
This is my not shocked face.
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
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NEW: China bought none of the extra $200 billion that President Trump's trade agreement promised.
twitter.com/ChadBown/statu…
twitter.com/ChadBown/statu…
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China bought none of the $200 billion of US exports it promised Trump in his phase one trade deal.
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an early Valentine's Day 
-note from a fan of Phase One purchase commitments
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Useful thread from former USDA chief economist (the very great ) into why US agriculture exports to China under Phase One did so well (while everything else did not).
NB: US agriculture exports made up **ONLY 14%** of the total goods and services covered in the deal
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JoeGlauber--IFPRI
@JoeGlauber1
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A small addendum to @ChadBown 's excellent wrap up of the China-US Phase 1 agreement. As Chad points out, China agricultural imports from US recovered from trade wars in 2020 and 2021. In fact, they hit record levels in 2021. 1/
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Probably not to Chad, given the number of hours he's heroically put into monitoring this, but you have to admit that, as trade policy goes, this is genuinely funny. Makes the Biden admin's decision to continue to pursue the agreement even sillier imho.
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
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NEW: China bought none of the extra $200 billion that President Trump's trade agreement promised. twitter.com/ChadBown/statu…
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admittedly only speak ein bisschen German but that is enough to understand historischer Flop
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European Chips Act backs more international engagement, by
Raimondo: TTC to coordinate investments “so that it isn’t a race to the bottom, so that we have complementary investments so that together the US and EU are strong, and quite frankly less reliant on China”
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Inside U.S. Trade
@insidetrade
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European ‘Chips Act’ plan backs more international engagement http://dlvr.it/SJh0yl
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As is (too) often the case with the politics of US trade policy, the end result is to reduce competition for a handful of politically connected American firms — whatever the cost for pinched American consumers.
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NEW: China bought none of the extra $200 billion that President Trump's trade agreement promised.
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
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In January 2020, former President Donald Trump signed a trade deal that committed China to purchase an additional $200 billion of US exports over 2020-21. The data are now in. In the end, China bought none of that extra $200 billion.
My latest, 1/
https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade…
https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade…Show this thread
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China bought none of the additional $200 billion of US exports promised under the phase-one trade deal with the United States.
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China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump’s deal had promised.
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China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump's deal had promised.
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New data show that China effectively bought none of the additional $200 billion in goods and services it promised to purchase as part of a 2020 trade deal signed with former President Donald Trump.
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As the 2020-21 period of purchase commitments comes to an end, the United States now seeks a new trade strategy with China.
The world should learn the right lessons from the US experiences under the phase one agreement. (ENDS)
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Trump's trade war created problems for the American economy beyond its negative impact on US exporters.
12/13
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Q: Was Trump's trade war worth it for US exporters?
A: The answer so far is "no."
Estimates here are that cumulative US goods and services exports to China in 2018–21 were about 19% LOWER with the trade war + phase one agreement than they would have been otherwise.
11/13
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New macro challenges emerged in 2020-21, affecting supply chains and fueling inflation.
Note: not all was bad for phase one, since the purchase commitments were set in *VALUE* (dollar) not volume terms.
(For a fixed trade volume, higher prices mean higher trade values)
10/13
GIF
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Carbon-intensive ENERGY exports had unrealistic targets but grew steadily.
US energy exports in 2021 were more than double pre-trade war levels, Coal, crude oil, and LNG were all up.
Yet, China’s energy purchases reached 37% of the commitment over 2020–21.
9/13
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Soybeans were the biggest part, making up 60% of US farm exports pre-trade war. They recovered, but did not reach the phase one target.
Others exceeded expectations, but not necessarily because of phase one:
• Pork (African swine fever)
• Corn & wheat (WTO disputes)
8/13
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AGRICULTURE was small economically (14% of exports) but big politically for Trump.
US farm exports suffered in the trade war, received billions of dollars of subsidies from Trump, then recovered.
China bought 83% of its commitment of US agricultural exports in 2020–21.
7/13
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SERVICES exports were the second biggest part of the deal. But business travel, tourism and other US services exports were devastated by the pandemic.
China bought only 52% of its full commitment of US services exports in 2020–21.
6/13
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Why?
Autos: moved production out of the US when hit by trade war tariffs, never rebounded
Aircraft: crashes of Boeing 737 MAX decimated orders before phase one was even signed.
OTOH, products to treat COVID-19, semiconductors, and semiconductor equipment exceeded targets
5/13
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MANUFACTURING exports were the biggest part of the deal. US exports suffered during the trade war and did not recover.
In the end, China bought only 59% of its full commitment of US manufactured exports in 2020–21.
4/13
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US exporters started in a hole. Two years of trade war meant first getting back to the (2017) baseline Trump's deal set, before chipping into that extra $200bn. They never got back to the baseline.
China bought only 57% of total US exports it committed to buy over 2020–21.
3/13
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Biden was not to blame, as China was never on pace.
June 2020: only 54% of pro-rated targets
December 2020: 59%
Jan 2021: Biden arrives, but the deal was back-loaded!!! (Additional commitments for 2021 were more than 60% HIGHER than for 2020.)
China would never catch up.
2/13
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US has reached an agreement to ease Trump-era tariffs on Japanese steel as president Joe Biden presses to relax trade tensions with American allies.
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one of my 16yo daughters just explained to me Marshallian externalities and i couldn’t be happier
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And here are some more general problems to be thinking about with attempts to 'manage' trade (from Dec 2021)
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For context, here are some data on US steel imports from Japan (subject to those Section 232 tariffs)
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Today, the Biden administration announced the removal of Trump's steel tariffs for a specific volume of Japanese exports. It's very similar to the deal struck with the EU in October.
Here is an explanation of the economics 
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VERY cool analysis here of linkages between supply chain disruptions and inflation from &
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Ana Maria Santacreu
@AmSantacreu
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Our latest @stlouisfed review article with @JesseLaBelle11 investigates several patterns of supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic and their contribution to PPI inflation https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2022/02/07/global-supply-chain-disruptions-and-inflation-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/…
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Everyone who knows anything about semiconductors seems to think it’s just not possible to take such a blindingly complex supply chain entirely in-house at any reasonable price.
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Some professional news: After the Beijing Olympics, i too have decided to retire from competitive half pipe snowboarding.
While agonizing, this decision will allow me to spend more time with my family, my tariffs, and my tracking of supply chain disruptions.
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A normal supply chain?
“It’s unlikely to happen in 2022. My crystal ball gets murky further out.”
~ with
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Why global chip diplomacy is still weak, what is being done about it, and why that is harder than it looks.
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A LOT of great stuff in here from and Willie Powell.
For #TradeTwitter (think filled-up container ships circling over-stressed ports), this is my favorite chart:
US goods spending remains 9% **above** trend, with services spending still 2.7% below trend.
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Jason Furman
@jasonfurman
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Willie Powell and my blog on the latest GDP numbers.
GDP grew strongly in 2021, it probably rose to around its potential, but the composition changed a lot.
A with charts.
https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-economy-grew-faster-expected-2021-pandemic-transformed-its…
with charts.
https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-economy-grew-faster-expected-2021-pandemic-transformed-its…Show this thread
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EU launches new WTO dispute against China. Case challenges Beijing's restrictions on Lithuanian exports imposed after Lithuania opened a representative office for Taiwan.
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Here is broader context...
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
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WTO rulings disproportionately targeted US use of antidumping, safeguards and anti-subsidy tariffs. Unhappy with that, Trump ended the entire dispute settlement system in 2019. But the fix will mean reconciling trade remedies and China.
My latest, 1/14
https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/trump-ended-wto-dispute-settlement-trade-remedies-are-needed-fix-it…
https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/trump-ended-wto-dispute-settlement-trade-remedies-are-needed-fix-it…Show this thread
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WTO establishes amount by which China can retaliate in dispute with US, by
Me: This is one more motivation for why the US, China, EU and other major WTO members need to figure out new rules on countervailing duties and other trade remedies.
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Useful historical reminder on how the EU’s “deep and comprehensive free trade area” (DCFTA) with Ukraine fits into all this.
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today i am reading this
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Ignore whacky 2020. Compare China’s economic output in each quarter of 2021 with 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. Then average annual growth was 4.9%, 5.5%, 4.9% and 5.2% in the 4 quarters of 2021 — not much of an upward or downward trend.
By Nick Lardy
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In 2019, Trump ended the WTO dispute settlement system because of American discontent with how 20 years of WTO litigation curtailed US access to trade remedies. Why restoring dispute settlement requires coming to terms with the China challenge.
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...This is where Intel's existing US fabs are located:
• Chandler, ARIZONA
• Hudson, MASSACHUSETTS
• Rio Rancho, NEW MEXICO
• Hillsboro, OREGON
Source:
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FASCINATING political economy here. Intel plans to invest at least $20 billion and build a new semiconductor fab in (swing state) **OHIO**....
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Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports have raised costs for American consumers and firms, but to a modest degree compared to the current rate of inflation.
How much? explains
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NEWS: President Biden said he wants China to meet the commitments of the phase-one deal Beijing and the U.S. signed two years ago so he can lift at least some of the tariffs his predecessor levied on hundreds of billions dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.
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Inside U.S. Trade
@insidetrade
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Biden says he wants to be able to lift China tariffs, ‘but we’re not there yet’ http://dlvr.it/SHRcWN
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Here is the YouTube 
of the hearing
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House Foreign Affairs Committee
@HouseForeign
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LIVE NOW, join the Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber with guests @WillyShih_atHBS, @ChadBown from @PIIE , and @DerekScissors1 for a conversation on transatlantic cooperation on critical supply chain security.
https://youtu.be/e45d0LWYlTo
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It was an honor to testify before the Affairs Committee today. Thanks et al for the invitation.
My testimony highlighted lessons from transatlantic cooperation on supply chains for COVID-19 vaccines, semiconductors and PPE.
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reminds us that supply chain and port delays are due to a demand side phenomenon - people are spending their budgets on increased goods, which is over stressing global logistics networks
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I asked what Congress can do to protect small business from supply chain disruptions and he supports limiting unilateral executive authority to impose tariffs
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Starting now (ish)!
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Congressman Bill Keating
@USRepKeating
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STARTING AT 2PM EST: @WillyShih_atHBS, @ChadBown from @PIIE, and @DerekScissors1 will testify on transatlantic cooperation on critical supply chain security. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=19FC050B-8E32-496F-BFE6-A693C08FDD2B…
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Why the UK would also prefer a tariff rate quota to resolve the dispute with the US over Trump's steel tariffs...
Source: https://piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs…
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Secretary Gina Raimondo
@SecRaimondo
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Today, @AmbassadorTai, United Kingdom Secretary of State for International Trade @annietrev, and I announced the start of bilateral discussions to address global steel & aluminum excess capacity including Section 232.
See our joint readout 
https://commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2022/01/joint-united-states-united-kingdom-statement-addressing-global-steel…
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For more on the WTO, subsidies and trade remedies, join us TODAY (!!!) on #TradeWinds with your host
Wednesday, 19 January 2022
9-10am ET / 3-4pm CET / 2-3pm GMT
...and from , Julia Ya Qin &
https://piie.com/events/subsidies-are-rise-are-they-necessary-evil…
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
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WTO rulings disproportionately targeted US use of antidumping, safeguards and anti-subsidy tariffs. Unhappy with that, Trump ended the entire dispute settlement system in 2019. But the fix will mean reconciling trade remedies and China.
My latest, 1/14
https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/trump-ended-wto-dispute-settlement-trade-remedies-are-needed-fix-it…
https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/trump-ended-wto-dispute-settlement-trade-remedies-are-needed-fix-it…Show this thread
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Very honored to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee at a hearing on “Transatlantic Cooperation on Critical Supply Chain Security”
Wednesday, 19 January 2022
2:00-3:00pm ET
Hearing: https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/2022/1/transatlantic-cooperation-on-critical-supply-chain-security…
YouTube : https://youtu.be/e45d0LWYlTo
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Congressman Bill Keating
@USRepKeating
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Join me tomorrow at 2pm for a hearing on transatlantic cooperation on critical supply chain security. @WillyShih_atHBS, @ChadBown from @PIIE, and @DerekScissors1 will provide up-to-date information and analysis on this important topic.
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FINALLY, INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION?
FDA expects to take part in international program aimed at deciding if, when, and how to update COVID-19 vaccines. Approach to ensure decisions are not left to individual vaccine manufacturers.
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also supply chains, preferably without disruptions
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Comments, criticism, suggestions highly welcome.
Trump ended WTO dispute settlement. Trade remedies are needed to fix it.
Here's why. ENDS/
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For more, join us on Trade Winds with
Wednesday January 19, 2022
9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EST
...and , Julia Ya Qin &
13/14
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Is it possible that Chinese exports might become less targeted by foreign trade remedies without reform?
It happened for Japan and South Korea - major 1980s/1990s targets of trade remedies - though why is not well studied.
And China is VERY different.... 12/14
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Reform Approach 3: China's subsidies to hard to define and capture? Focus on 'Market Access' implications instead.
Such an approach is intellectually appealing, but it, too, faces numerous practical challenges... 11/14
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Reform Approach 2: Competitive Neutrality for China's state owned enterprises (SOEs)
In the case of China, relying on competitive neutrality would also pose numerous challenges... 10/14
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Reform Approach 1: More Legal Precision on Subsidies
This is the approach US, EU, Japan (the 'Trilateral') have mostly been trying so far.
There are many difficulties with attempts to write harmful subsidies out of existence... 9/14
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But the US argument is that if you want to restore WTO dispute settlement of some form, we need to agree on permissible use of trade remedies.
TOWARD TRADE REMEDY REFORM... 8/14
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WTO dispute settlement disproportionately targeted US trade remedies.
However, US arguments have not been that other countries’ trade remedy use should have been disciplined more. (And there is no evidence that other countries’ trade remedies were any more WTO consistent) 7/14
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Also, THIRD COUNTRY EXPORTERS should care. Trade remedies on China are increasingly extended to cover trade in the same products from them
US in 2019: nearly 80% of imports from third countries covered by trade remedies were tied to cases targeting China
US is not alone... 6/14
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The US is also not alone targeting imports from China with trade remedies:
Check out India and Turkey
Roughly 20% of each country's imports from China were subject to their antidumping tariffs as of 2019
5/14
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Any trade remedy reform must tackle ALL THREE trade remedies, given substitutable policy instruments.
Take US imports from China in 2019. More than...
• 10% were covered by antidumping
• 8% were covered by CVDs
• 1% were covered by safeguards
The US is not alone... 4/14
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By 2019, more than 7% of China’s exports to G-20 were subject to trade remedies.
But WHY was unclear:
• Was it more Chinese dumping? Subsidies? Larger export surges?
• Or was China just putting pressure on an ever-larger share of industries?
Why matters for NEW RULES. 3/14
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Trade remedies = antidumping, safeguards, countervailing duties.
By the end of 2019*, Group of 20 (G-20) use of trade remedies was the highest since the WTO was created in 1995.
(*Latest available data. Expected to rise with COVID-19 recession and new subsidies...) 2/14
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WTO rulings disproportionately targeted US use of antidumping, safeguards and anti-subsidy tariffs. Unhappy with that, Trump ended the entire dispute settlement system in 2019. But the fix will mean reconciling trade remedies and China.
My latest, 1/14
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You can stop holding your breath now (or was that just and me?)... The new revision of the HS is here and it identifies #3Dprinters!
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Thrilled to share that our analysis of British export prices around the June 2016 sterling depreciation is now published in .
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Journal of International Economics
@JIntlEcon
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New: "Invoicing and the Dynamics of Pricing-to-Market" by @gc422, @MeredithCrowle1 & @LuHanEcon. This article estimates, by invoicing currency, the speed of export price & relative markup adjustment around the 2016 Brexit-related sterling depreciation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103570… 1/4
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