• September 13 2024
  Markets InsightUS interest rates

  The big question is what comes next after the Fed’s rate cut

  Bond investors could easily be caught off guard if liquidity conditions fail to loosen significantly

  
• August 23 2024
  Markets InsightFederal Reserve

  Market volatility looks more likely post-Jackson Hole

  Ironically, Jay Powell’s speech has encouraged markets to run even faster and with more confidence

  
• August 5 2024
  Markets InsightGlobal Economy

  Policymakers need to rethink some rules

  On both sides of the Atlantic, the configuration of strictures on central banks and governments may risk economic wellbeing

  
• July 23 2024
  Markets InsightGlobal Economy

  Why I am now optimistic that economies can break out of a rut

  For the first time in two decades, the potential for a step up in western growth is real and promising

  
• July 8 2024
  Markets InsightFederal Reserve

  What the Fed should put on the Jackson Hole agenda

  Central bank should use the summer to address issues key to America’s economic wellbeing and global financial stability

  
• June 18 2024
  Markets InsightFederal Reserve

  Fed needs to cut interest rates sooner rather than later

  Delay by US central bank in easing monetary policy could jeopardise soft economic landing

  
• May 30 2024
  Markets InsightMonetary policy

  Europe may soon discover the limits of decoupling on rates

  Monetary policy in advanced countries is diverging in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago

  
• May 2 2024
  Markets InsightFederal Reserve

  Powell’s dovishness is right, but not for the reasons he believes

  Fed is unlikely to get to its 2% inflation target unless it is willing to impose major damage on the economy

  
• April 19 2024
  Middle East conflict

  Markets are a frog in boiling water on Iran-Israel

  While the reaction to the latest hostilities has been tame, the global economy is too fragile for a new crisis

  
• April 8 2024
  Markets InsightAsset allocation

  Inverted pyramid of investments needs shoring up

  The shift towards more opportunistic and tactical positions is risky

  
• March 26 2024
  Markets InsightMonetary policy

  A turning point in central banking

  Last week’s monetary policy moves mark a shift away from strict inflation targeting

  
• March 5 2024
  Markets InsightChinese business & finance

  Foreign investors are right to see China as a trade more than a long-term bet

  Country faces clear and present danger of falling into middle-income trap

  
• February 15 2024
  Markets InsightArtificial intelligence

  How Gen AI will change asset management

  The industry serves as a natural experiment for a technology that will change practices, organisations and regulations

  
• January 29 2024
  Markets InsightGlobal Economy

  The conflicting forces at work in the global economy

  The outlook is brighter but a legacy of over-indebtedness, low-quality growth and darkening geopolitics must be dealt with

  
• January 16 2024
  Markets InsightGlobal Economy

  A warning shot over the last mile in the inflation battle

  US data highlights the challenges facing the Fed in attaining its 2% inflation target

  
• December 18 2023
  Markets InsightUS interest rates

  The Fed should resist market bullying

  Central bank is facing pressure to take an even more dovish stance

  
• December 7 2023
  Markets InsightUS interest rates

  The peculiar market divide on the rate outlook

  Investors should beware of disregarding the signals emitted by the Fed

  
• November 21 2023
  Markets InsightAutumn Statement

  The risks of tax cuts in Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement

  UK chancellor should direct more resources to AI, life sciences and the green energy transition

  
• November 6 2023
  Markets InsightMonetary policy

  The big central banks need to use their time outs wisely

  Policymakers should go well beyond data analysis in looking to the future

  
• October 17 2023
  Markets InsightUS Treasury bonds

  US bond market is losing its strategic footing

  Unusual volatility in yields points to longer-term challenges for most influential segment of world’s financial markets

  
• October 10 2023
  Investments

  Why Mohamed El-Erian favours cash over equities for now

  Top economist reveals his personal investment strategy on the FT’s Money Clinic podcast

  
• October 5 2023
  Markets InsightUS economy

  The US may no longer avoid a recession

  The economy is likely to weaken as markets internalise the significant likelihood that rates will stay higher for longer

  
• October 4 2023
  ReviewBooks

  Permacrisis — Gordon Brown and Mohamed El-Erian’s blueprint for global governance

  Ways to fix a broken system and revamp our approach to economic management

  
• September 22 2023
  Global Economy

  The plight of the ‘permacrisis’ and what to do about it

  The complexity of central banks’ ‘last mile’ on inflation is part of a bigger economic challenge

  
• September 8 2023
  Markets InsightChinese economy

  It’s no longer a given that China will become the world’s largest economy

  Markets need to recognise that the country is not reverting to its old economic and financial playbook