{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,9]],"date-time":"2026-05-09T17:21:32Z","timestamp":1778347292165,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,5]],"date-time":"2022-11-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1667606400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Comp Applic In Engineering"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Since their beginning, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) have known great success and have managed to establish themselves with significant enrollment rates. However, this success was quickly disrupted by the drop\u2010out phenomenon observed in the majority of MOOCs, which reaches 90% in some courses. Studying and understanding this phenomenon, and consequently determining the relevance of the efforts made to develop MOOCs, has led several researchers to propose predictive models of learners at risk of dropping out. On one hand, these models have been made relying on machine learning and the massive data generated by learners'\u00a0navigation. On the other hand, these models only provide weekly predictions and do not give clear visibility about the overall course progress. We present in this paper a framework based on the recurrent neural networks'\u00a0strengths which uses generator and predictor modules. Our framework allows not only the prediction of dropouts but also the generation of each learners'\u00a0behaviors during the whole course since its first week. Besides, an OLAP analytical module proved great support for MOOC moderators to report on the learners'\u00a0behavior at\u2010risk to target their interventions and guide their support.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/cae.22582","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,5]],"date-time":"2022-11-05T09:13:55Z","timestamp":1667639635000},"page":"270-284","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["A recurrent neural networks based framework for at\u2010risk learners'\u00a0early prediction and MOOC tutor's decision support"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0999-6388","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Youssef","family":"Mourdi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Modeling and combinatorial laboratory, Mathematics &amp; Computer Science Department, Polydisciplinary Faculty of Safi Cadi Ayyad University Marrakech Morocco"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1087-0988","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohammed","family":"Sadgal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computer Systems Engineering Laboratory, Computer Science Department, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia Cadi Ayyad University Marrakech Morocco"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4668-9806","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hasna","family":"Elalaoui Elabdallaoui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computer Systems Engineering Laboratory, Computer Science Department, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia Cadi Ayyad University Marrakech Morocco"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2864-1929","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hamada","family":"El Kabtane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"SMARTE Systems and Applications (SSA) research structure, National School of Applied Sciences Cadi Ayyad University Marrakech Morocco"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6208-3102","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hanane","family":"Allioui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computer Systems Engineering Laboratory, Computer Science Department, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia Cadi Ayyad University Marrakech Morocco"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00521-017-3225-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"J.Arguello andK.Shaffer Predicting speech acts in MOOC forum posts Proc. 9th Int. Conf. Web Soc. Media (ICWSM) 2015 pp.2\u201311.","DOI":"10.1609\/icwsm.v9i1.14604"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","first-page":"2299","article-title":"MOOC performance prediction via clickstream data and social learning networks","volume":"26","author":"Brinton C. G.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proc.\u2014IEEE INFOCOM"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compeleceng.2017.03.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","first-page":"7","article-title":"Predicting student attrition in MOOCs using sentiment analysis and neural networks","volume":"1432","author":"Chaplot D. S.","year":"2015","journal-title":"CEUR Workshop Pro"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/S1793351X18500071"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"318","DOI":"10.58680\/ccc201628063","article-title":"Adventuring into MOOC writing assessment: challenges, results, and possibilities","volume":"67","author":"Comer D. K.","year":"2016","journal-title":"Coll. Compos. Commun."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"J. Z.Cui Tang YuanxinOuyang WengeRong andZ. X.Xiong Time series model for predicting dropout in massive open online courses International Conference on 10948 (2018) 353\u2013357.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-93846-2_66"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3906\/elk-1809-22"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/app9091879"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","unstructured":"N.Gitinabard F.Khoshnevisan C. F.Lynch andE. Y.Wang Your actions or your associates? Predicting certification and dropout in moocs with behavioral and social features Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Educational Data Mining 2018 404\u2013410"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-13-2285-3_69"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","first-page":"9","article-title":"Survey of prediction using recurrent neural network with long short\u2010term memory","volume":"8","author":"Gopnarayan A.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Sci. Res."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Dropout prediction in MOOCs using learner activity features","volume":"37","author":"Halawa S.","year":"2014","journal-title":"eLearning Pap."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.engappai.2016.01.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"W.Li M.Gao H.Li Q.Xiong J.Wen andZ.Wu Dropout prediction in MOOCs using behavior features and multi\u2010view semi\u2010supervised learning \u00a0In Proceedings of 2016 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) 2016 pp.3130\u20133137.","DOI":"10.1109\/IJCNN.2016.7727598"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"W.Li S.Li X.Shao andZ.LiCSMT (2019) Papers In Proceedings of the 6th Conference on Sound and Music Technology.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-13-8707-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"J.Liang C.Li andL.Zheng \u201cMachine learning application in MOOCs: dropout prediction \u201d in ICCSE 2016\u201411th International Conference on Computer Science and Education 2016 pp.52\u201357.","DOI":"10.1109\/ICCSE.2016.7581554"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","unstructured":"X.Liang J.Wu andJ.Cao MIDI\u2010Sandwich: multi\u2010model multi\u2010task hierarchical conditional VAE\u2010GAN networks for symbolic single\u2010track music generation 15(2019) pp.1\u20137."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/jisys-2018-0016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Prediction in MOOCs: a\u00a0review and future research directions","volume":"1382","author":"Moreno\u2010Marcos P. M.","year":"2018","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Learn. Technol."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10639-019-09934-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","unstructured":"D.Onah J.Sinclair andR.Boyatt Dropout rates of massive open online courses: behavioural patterns 6th International Conference on Education and New Learning Technologies EDULEARN14 Proceedings 2014 pp.5825\u20135834."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1742-6596\/1196\/1\/012007"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"A.PatelandA. K.Tiwari Sentiment Analysis by using Recurrent Neural Network eJ. Mater. Sci.2019 pp.108\u2013111.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.3349572","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3349572"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Student dropout prediction in massive open online courses by convolutional neural networks","author":"Qiu L.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Soft Comput."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2018.2881275"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-06073-2_2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","article-title":"Classification assessment methods","author":"Tharwat A.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Appl. Comput. Informatics"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2019271"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iheduc.2014.07.001"},{"issue":"8","key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","first-page":"1131","article-title":"User behavioral patterns and early dropouts detection: improved users profiling through analysis of successive offering of {MOOC}","volume":"24","author":"Vitiello M.","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Univers. Comput. Sci."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2015.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2016\/2174613"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15837\/ijccc.2019.2.3375"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2019.2891902"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cae.22191"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2020.106559"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00366-021-01554-wuters"}],"container-title":["Computer Applications in Engineering Education"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/cae.22582","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/cae.22582","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/cae.22582","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,7]],"date-time":"2024-10-07T09:31:51Z","timestamp":1728293511000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/cae.22582"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,5]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/cae.22582"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/cae.22582","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1061-3773","1099-0542"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1061-3773","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-0542","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,5]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-01-27","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-10-08","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-11-05","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}