
Book Review-Future Shock
It was written before I was born. Reading Future Shock by Alvin Toffler was like stepping into a history museum filled with strange reflections of the past and, eerily, both reflections of today and protections of the future. Certainly, many of the predictions in the book have proven to be incorrect, but more telling are the principles and concerns Toffler had in 1970 that are relevant today.
Defining Future Shock
Simply, future shock as Toffler describes it is, “the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.” Contextually, Toffler saw change as the future. Future shock, then, was exposing people to the future too quickly. What we know about change challenges the mechanisms that Toffler implied and instead recognizes the cognitive load that is placed on someone when they’re coping with changes. Kahneman, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, calls our automatic brain System 1 and our more deliberative and expensive thinking System 2. All is well when we can mostly stay in our System 1 thinking, but when we’re forced to address everything as new and novel, we can quite literally deplete the energy (glucose) in the brain. (See The Rise of Superman for more on the limits.)
Toffler was concerned with the potential collapse due to too many choices (see The Paradox of Choice) and too many changes. Toffler was concerned that the rate of change in the late 1960s was breaking people’s ability to keep up. One can only wonder what he’d think today. The things that we take for granted – like phones with more memory than the computers he was aware of, instant information access via the internet and data access on our phones, Wikipedia, search, and more – would feel completely alien to him.
A Word About Change
When reviewing Toffler’s work, I can’t escape the fact that we’ve put a lot of work into https://ConfidentChangeManagement.com. That’s not because there’s a problem with Toffler’s work or that it’s inconsistent, but rather because he’s highlighting one of the problems that we teach people to solve for. We talk about managing change rates, the fact that we live in a world of overlapping change, and the need to support people through change.
Since Toffler’s time, there has been a lot of work in making change easier for us to adapt to. There are new models of change. There are books that speak of individual change, organizational change, and societal change. If you believe Toffler’s proposition that we will face a point where the change will overwhelm us and cause us to shut down, I’d encourage you to use the free resources we’ve made available to make it easier.
Predictions
It would be easy to focus on the predictions Toffler made that haven’t come true. But prophecy is difficult – especially about the future. In The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver explains the challenges of prediction. Phil Tetlock does the same in Superforecasting. It would be unfair to focus on the failed predictions. While a few of them will be mentioned in this review, I mostly ignore them and instead focus on the principles that are driving our human response to change as it comes at us in an ever-increasing pace that shows no signs of stopping.
Information Overload
Toffler speaks about the increase in the information that humans are subjected to – and how we’re not evolved to process this much information. (See The Organized Mind for more.) Toffler breaks down the history of man into lifetimes, and he estimates roughly 800 lifespans since the beginning of mankind. He points out that the printed word – the foundation of almost everything – has only existed for roughly the last 6 lifetimes.
He shares an analogy of technology being the great engine that’s driving us forward, and he then asserts that knowledge is the fuel. If he is correct, then we have more fuel available to us than ever before in history – with continued exponential growth.
For comparison, let’s think about the entire collected holdings that were reported to be at the Library of Alexandria. Conservatively, there may have been 400,000 scrolls, each totaling an estimated 5MB of data in text and images. The entire library could be contained on a single 2 TB drive today.
By contrast, to capture everything on Wikipedia in all languages with edit history would total roughly 410 TB. The Library of Congress holdings would consume about 21 PB (or 21,000 TB). If we were to expand these numbers to include the data available on the internet, we’d be looking at 181 ZB for 2025 (or 181,000 PB). There’s simply more data available today than anyone could hope to consume in a lifetime.
Impermanence
It’s the feeling that everything is temporary including us, all we create, and all we love. It comes from a hyper-mobile lifestyle that has families moving frequently and across vast distances. It comes from the reality that our products today are more transient and temporary than any other time. Computers that are only a few years old are obsolete. We live in a culture that values disposable and replaceable. Our buildings are less old – we even design for how we can make changes at different rates. (See How Buildings Learn.)
Our mass-market, optimized consumer goods are often far easier and sometimes less costly to replace than repair. It was after Grandma Helen died that I began to see this difference. She wasn’t connected by blood, marriage, or adoption, but she was the person my mom called mom. She lived in the house next door as I was growing up, and though we moved several times, Grandma Helen never did. We were cleaning out the attic and found multiples of broken appliances and lamps. She didn’t throw things away. Having survived the Great Depression, she valued everything. She might not have known how to fix the coffee pot, but she was prepared for a time when she might have to try to find a way to fix it. Today, we throw away more than at any other time in history. We know more about what it takes to manufacture things to last or be repairable, but in very few cases are we willing to pay for the quality it takes. It’s easier to roll the dice and occasionally replace the things that break.
The Rental Revolution
Toffler wrote in the 25-year period where rental construction (apartments) accounted for 8% of the total building at the start and more than 50% at the end. We’ve always seen rentals as more transitory – which makes sense, because there’s no investment beyond the end of the lease. In my review for The Halo Effect, I broke down the 2008 financial meltdown and associated it with the manipulation of home ownership – confusing correlation with causation. We wanted economic stability, and we thought that home ownership drove it. As a result, policy changes caused lending changes that melted down the finance industry and plunged us into a recession.
Through this, we learned that while home ownership was a sign of economic stability, it wasn’t the cause. Toffler was seeing the leading edge of a world where home ownership isn’t seen as the prize it once was. We were moving to a world where the permanence of a house was more than what people wanted – and the trend continues today.
The automobile industry had convinced people they didn’t need to buy and keep large purchases, and this tricked into the rest of the world. (See Unsafe at Any Speed for the focus of the automobile industry at that time.)
Toffler’s comments about what would become stores like Rent-A-Center are almost comical. He can’t fathom a store that only rented. It clearly didn’t make sense inside the context of his values.
The Struggle
Toffler hints that as we’ve handled the lower levels of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, we started to branch out into individual ideas of what we want – leading to hyper individualization. He talks about the increase in the number of products sold in supermarkets, noting that 55% of the products sold in 1970 didn’t exist 10 years prior. The Organized Mind provides more up to date statistics that are solid evidence that the trend didn’t abate after Future Shock was published. Consumerization as a force had already been identified in 1957 by Vance Packard, in The Hidden Persuaders, as he spoke of the psychological manipulation that led to people being more focused on purchases. Gun Country connects consumerism to the number of guns that Americans have.
We wanted products that did more than meet our basic needs. Once our needs were fulfilled, we decided we wanted things that completed us – who we were.
Freedom
In Toffler’s age, the most striking symbol was the automobile. Guys got girls with automobiles, and if you didn’t have one, the saying goes that you didn’t have a girl. That sentiment has wound its way into lyrics of songs in the 1980s. Today, between Uber, Lyft, and taxis and the ability to live in a major city like more of us are, a car isn’t necessary. If you’ve had teenagers with their phone or computer, you’ve probably seen a similar reaction. No longer is it necessary for us to be physically next to a person to feel like we can be “with” them. Of course, Sherry Turkle in Alone Together and Jonathan Haidt in The Anxious Generation disagree.
Regardless of the beliefs, it’s important to recognize the power that freedom has on us. In fact, Jonathan Haidt in The Righteous Mind acknowledges that the liberty/oppression moral foundation was exposed by his work to find foundations. The concept of freedom refused to be ignored.
Friendships
Toffler says, “Friendship increasingly resembles a canoe shooting the rapids of the river of change.” It’s a powerful metaphor for the difficulty in retaining long-term relationships in a transient, mobile, and disposable world. In Loneliness, the consequences of a lack of relationships are brought in the to the light of day. Platonic explains how friendships were easier – and what we can do to continue to prioritize friendships. The Dance of Connection is a guidebook for how to maintain the friendships you have in these increasingly difficult times.
Experience Over Knowledge
Toffler quotes Dr. Harold Leavitt: “For the first time in our history, obsolescence seems to be an imminent problem for management because for the first time, the relative advantage of experience over knowledge seems to be rapidly decreasing.” The statement, from his 1958 article, “Management in the 1980’s,” was designed to indicate the rise of data driven decisions. The point was that there will be reduced need for direct experience, and therefore the need for middle managers will decrease.
The writing was at the beginning of the information age when computers were first becoming commercially available. It’s interesting in the context of our current transition to a generative AI world. How will we begin to value knowledge over someone with experience – or will we begin to value something else? Will it be the ability to query and use the tools? Will it be the deep thinking that generative AI doesn’t seem capable of?
Reorganizations
Toffler warns us of the corporate reorganizations that we see today with increasing frequency. Quoting John Gardner from 1965, he repeats, “Most organizations have a structure that was designed to solve problems that no longer exist.” There are two factors to this statement – the obvious aspect that the rate of change is increasing is the central theme of Future Shock. However, there’s separately an awareness of wicked problems. Changing the structure of the organization changes the environment. Done correctly, it will resolve the problem in the market – while creating others.
The Executive Team
There are lots of reasons to build a powerful executive team that can work together. They can bring together different perspectives to reach better outcomes, as Scott Page explains in The Difference. The team of executives can expose Team Genius – but often we fall well short of these lofty goals. Toffler quotes Charles Elwell with the source of the problem: “Executives look at themselves as individual entrepreneurs who are selling their knowledge and skills.” Instead of looking for a team where they can be successful together, they’re looking for a mercenary position where they can demonstrate how great they are.
Since Toffler and Elwell’s time, things have gotten worse, not better, as anyone who looks at executive tenure can see.
The Predictions
There are a lot of failed predictions, from our new aquatic future to cloning and the growth of tissues to replace organs. Babies being born without in utero pregnancy. The concept of pleasure domes. The list is long. It would be easy to criticize Toffler – or any futurist – for their predictions that didn’t come true. However, doing so ignores how difficult it is to predict the future. Even today, weather forecasts are good only a few days out at most. (And no, we still don’t have widespread weather modification despite the statements of the American Meteorological Society.)
Delayed Strategic Gratification
In the end, Toffler enumerates a number of forces – including lavishing experiences on our children, their exposure to media, and the increasing rate of change – that push us either towards a hedonistic, pleasure-based existence or a struggle to achieve the level of strategic planning required to anticipate potential problems and prepare for them. On the one hand, the rate of change and expansion of complexity creates a greater difficulty in prediction; on the other, this ramp creates an opportunity to develop new skills of prediction.
I believe that Toffler would be impressed at our ability as humans to adapt to the rate of change. Simultaneously, I believe he’d be disappointed in our relative ignorance of what is happening around us. I think if he were dropped in the middle of culture today, he’d experience Future Shock.









