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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +763
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 MLB Picks
    DET @ CLE • Tue 1:08pm
    CLE +1.5
    -138
    Point Spread
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 10:02am

    Analysis

    This may well be a 1-0 game so we certainly will take +1.5 cheaper than Detroit money line even against Tarik Skubal. The Guardians' Gavin Williams has been about as good of late -- team has won his past five overall -- and Cleveland owned the Tigers in the season series to steal the Central. The teams met six times in the season's last 12 games as the Guardians completed an unprecedented charge to the division title.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +28
    (71%)
    5-2 in Last 7 MLB Player Props Picks
    DET @ CLE • Tue 1:08pm
    player headshot
    G. Williams
    Over 14.5
    -139
    Total Pitcher Outs
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 9:32pm

    Analysis

    Managers don't care nearly as much in the playoffs as they do in the RS about starting pitchers going the full five and qualifying for a win. But this is still an awfully low number on Gavin Williams, who has gone at least five in five straight and in the vast majority of his outings. Williams has also been better at home and during the day and has great 2025 splits vs. Detroit. Our model has him at 5.3 innings. Don't care about the .3 part.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    +809
    (60%)
    30-20-1 in Last 51 MLB Picks
    SD @ CHC • Tue 3:08pm
    CHC
    -114
    Money Line
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 8:57pm

    Analysis

    It's going to be 70° with winds blowing in from left field at 10 mph for Game 1 at Wrigley Field between the Padres and Cubs. This will be the third series between these two clubs, with the first two being split three games apiece, with each home team holding serve. It’ll also be the third meeting between starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Matthew Boyd, who split each matchup. Both those pitching matchups were in April. The Cubs come off a sweep of the Cardinals, but they were struggling before, while the Padres have won seven of their last eight, including a sweep over the last weekend against Arizona. I've got the Cubs holding serving game one behind Matthew Boyd.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +763
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 MLB Picks
    CIN @ LAD • Tue 9:08pm
    LAD -1
    -125
    Point Spread
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 11:31am

    Analysis

    If we push, we push. I do really like Cincy's Hunter Greene, but he might be too amped up in his playoff debut and as a Los Angeles native. Greene was nearly unhittable this year in Cincinnati but 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA away. In five career starts against the Dodgers, Greene is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA. Will the Dodgers finally be able to flip the switch? The last time pitcher Blake Snell faced the Reds, he pitched for the Giants and tossed a no-hitter at Great American Ball Park on Aug. 2, 2024. Snell has plenty of playoff experience.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    +809
    (60%)
    30-20-1 in Last 51 MLB Picks
    CIN @ LAD • Tue 9:08pm
    Under 7
    -102
    Over / Under
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 7:42pm

    Analysis

    I'm going to play Game 1 between the Reds and Dodgers under the total, and everything is pending on Hunter Greene pitching well. The Reds have won six of his last nine starts, and in his last start against Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, he allowed two runs over six innings. When he stays focused, he’s really good, and when his confidence is at peak level, he can get anybody out at any time, and no one can touch him. His problem is that he has mental lapses, and in two of his last six starts, he's allowed five runs in Reds losses, one of them to the A's, and the other one to the Dodgers, 7-0. I like the under in Game 1.

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