Major Armed Conflicts, Militarization, and Life Chances: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis

Three meanings can clearly be distinguished: (1) militarization, ‘‘the quantity and proportion of resources a society devotes to military affairs’’; (2) cultural militarism, the attitudes and behaviors of individuals, groups, and organizations; and (3) national policy, ‘‘governmental actions.’’ My use of militarization is the first one: ‘‘the quantity and proportion of resources a society devotes to military affairs’’; no positive or negative connotations are intended. See Herbert P. Van Tuyll, ‘‘Militarism, the United States, and the Cold War,’’ Armed Forces & Society 20 (1994): 519-30. My use of the term is consistent with its use in much of the sociological literature. For example, see Brad Bullock and Glenn Firebaugh, ‘‘Guns and Butter? The Effect of Militarization on Economic and Social Development in the Third World,’’ Journal of Political and Military Sociology 18 (1990): 231-66.

Nils Petter Gleditsch, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg, and Havard Strand, ‘‘Armed Conflict 1946 to 2001: A New Dataset,’’ Journal of Peace Research 39 (2002 ): 615-37.

Ian Roxborough, ‘‘Learning and Diffusing the Lessons of Counterinsurgency: The U.S. Military from Vietnam to Iraq,’’ Sociological Focus 39 ( 2006): 319-46; and Ian Roxborough, ‘‘Counterinsurgency,’’ Contexts 6 (2007 ): 15-21.

Paul Collier, Lani Elliot, Havard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynol-Querol, and Nicholas Sambanis, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank, 2003).

The literature on the effects of armed conflict often glosses over the distinctions among internal conflicts (i.e., civil conflicts), international conflicts, and internationalized internal conflicts when assessing the effects of conflict. For example, see Frances Stewart, Valpy FitzGerald, and Associates, War and Underdevelopment, 2 vols. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), particularly vol. 1, chap. 4. As a result, I do not attempt to always make these distinctions in the literature review or when formulating hypotheses. I do, however, distinguish among these types of conflict in the analyses.

Brian Lai and Clayton Thyne, ‘‘The Effect of Civil War on Education, 1980-97,’’ Journal of Peace Research 44 (2007): 277-92; and Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis, Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, 2 vols. ( Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank, 2005 ).

Anthony Oberschall and Michael Seidman, ‘‘Food Coercion in Revolution and Civil War: Who Wins and How They Do It,’’ Comparative Studies in Society & History 47 (2005): 372-402.

J. Craig Jenkins, Stephen J. Scanlan, and Lindsey Peterson, ‘‘Military Famine, Human Rights, and Child Hunger: A Cross-National Analysis, 1990-2000,’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (2007): 823-47.

Steve Carlton-Ford, ‘‘The Impact of War, Adult HIV/AIDS, and Militarization on Young Children’s Mortality,’’ in Sociological Studies of Children and Youth, vol. 10, Special International Volume, ed. Loretta Bass ( San Diego, CA: Elsevier, 2005), 231-55; Steve Carlton-Ford, Ann Hamill, and Paula Houston, ‘‘War and Children’s Mortality,’’ Childhood 7 (2000): 401-19; and Debarati Guha-Sapir and Wilem Gijsbert van Panhuis, ‘‘Conflict-Related Mortality: An Analysis of 37 Datasets,’’ Disasters 28 (2004): 418-28.

Stewart, FitzGerald, and Associates, War and Underdevelopment .

Paul Collier, ‘‘War and Military Expenditure in Developing Countries and Their Consequences for Development,’’ Economics of Peace and Security Journal 1 (2006): 10-13.

Gleditsch et al., ‘‘Armed Conflict 1946 to 2001’’; and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), ‘‘World and Regional Military Expenditure Estimates: 1988-2006’’ (2007), http://www.sipri.org/contents/milap/milex/mex_wnr_table.html (accessed August 24, 2007).

Collier et al., Breaking the Conflict Trap.

Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘‘Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?’’ Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69 ( 2006): 1-27.

Kenneth Benoit, ‘‘Democracies Really Are More Pacific (in General): Reexamining Regime Type and War Involvement,’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 ( 1996): 636-57.

William J. Dixon and Bruce E. Moon, ‘‘The Military Burden and Basic Human Needs,’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 30 (1986 ): 660-84.

Saadet Deger, ‘‘Economic Development and Defense Expenditure,’’ Economic Development and Cultural Change 35 (1986): 179-96; and Alvin Birdi and J. Paul Dunne, ‘‘South Africa: An Econometric Analysis of Military Spending and Economic Growth,’’ in Arming the South: The Economics of Military Expenditure, Arms Production, and Arms Trade in Developing Countries, ed. Jurgen Brauer and J. Paul Dunne (New York: Palgrave, 2002), 221-33. See Emile Benoit, ‘‘Growth and Defense in Developing Countries,’’ Economic Development and Cultural Change 26 ( 1978): 271-80, for a more mixed assessment.

Francis O. Adeola, ‘‘Military Expenditures, Health, and Education: Bedfellows or Antagonists in Third World Development?’’ Armed Forces & Society 22 (1996): 441-67; and Deger, ‘‘Economic Development and Defense Expenditure.’’

Brian Gifford, ‘‘Why No Trade-Off between ‘Guns and Butter’? Armed Forces and Social Spending in the Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1960-1993,’’ American Journal of Sociology 112 (2006): 473-509. The quoted material can be found on page 481.

Adeola, ‘‘Military Expenditures, Health, and Education.’’

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers, ‘‘Wealthier Is Healthier,’’ Journal of Human Resources 31 (1996): 841-68.

Gabriella R. Montinola and Robert W. Jackman, ‘‘Sources of Corruption: A Cross-Country Study,’’ British Journal of Political Science 32 ( 2002): 147-70.

John J. Johnson, ed., The Role of the Military in Underdeveloped Countries (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 1962 ; reprint, Westport, CT: Greenwood, 1981).

For example, see Bullock and Firebaugh, ‘‘Guns and Butter?’’; Dixon and Moon, ‘‘The Military Burden and Basic Human Needs;’’ Edward L. Kick, Byron L. Davis, David M. Kiefer, and Thomas J. Burns, ‘‘A Cross-National Analysis of Militarization and Well-Being Relationships in Developing Countries,’’ Social Science Research 27 (1998): 351-70; Edward L. Kick, Randa Nasser, Byron L. Davis, and Lee Bean, ‘‘Militarization and Infant Mortality in the Third World,’’ Journal of Political and Military Sociology 18 (1990): 285-305; and Erich Weede, ‘‘Military Participation Ratios, Human Capital Formation, and Economic Growth: A Cross-National Analysis,’’ Journal of Political and Military Sociology 11 (1983): 11-19.

For a concise discussion of development, poverty, and infant mortality, see Coralie Bryant and Christina Kappaz, Reducing Poverty, Building Peace (Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian, 2005), esp. chap. 1.

Morris Janowitz, The Military in the Political Development of New Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1964); and Brian S. Macdonald, Military Spending in Developing Countries: How Much Is Too Much? (Ottawa, Canada: Carleton University Press, 1994).

Bullock and Firebaugh, ‘‘Guns and Butter?’’; Carlton-Ford, ‘‘The Impact of War, Adult HIV/AIDS, and Militarization on Young Children’s Mortality’’; Dixon and Moon, ‘‘The Military Burden and Basic Human Needs;’’ Kick et al., ‘‘A Cross-National Analysis of Militarization and Well-Being Relationships in Developing Countries’’; and Kick et al., ‘‘Militarization and Infant Mortality in the Third World.’’

Erich Weede, ‘‘The Impact of Military Participation on Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Some New Evidence,’’ Journal of Political and Military Sociology 21 ( 1993): 241-58.

For social militarization, see ibid.; for economic militarization, see Alex Mintz and Randolph T. Stevenson, ‘‘Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the ‘Peace Dividend’: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries,’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 ( 1995): 283-305.

David H. Petraeus, James F. Amos, and John A. Nagl, The U.S. Army & Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007).

Jeffery Herbst, ‘‘African Militaries and Rebellion: The Political Economy of Threat and Combat Effectiveness,’’ Journal of Peace Research 41 (2004 ): 357-69; Stathis N. Kalyvas, ‘‘The Paradox of Violence in Civil War,’’ Journal of Ethics 8 (2004): 97-138; and Roxborough, ‘‘Counterinsurgency,’’ 15-21.

Petraeus, Amos, and Nagl, The U.S. Army & Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual.

Stewart, FitzGerald, and Associates, War and Underdevelopment.

That democracies are less likely to be involved in international wars and internal conflicts has been well documented as an empirical fact. Researchers and theorists still dispute the reason for this regularity. Some argue that it is the result of democratic norms, others that the decentralization of power in democracies is crucial. See Benoit, ‘‘Democracies Really Are More Pacific (in General)’’; William Dixon, ‘‘Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict,’’ American Political Science Review 88 (1994): 14-32; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Michael T. Koch, and Randolph M. Siverson, ‘‘Testing Competing Institutional Explanations of the Democratic Peace: The Case of Dispute Duration,’’ Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2004): 255-67; David A. Lake, ‘‘Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War,’’ American Political Science Review 86 (1992): 24-37; and R. J. Rummel, ‘‘Democracy, Power, Genocide, and Mass Murder,’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1995): 3-26. For a review of theoretical disputes and a list of additional sources, see David Kinsella, ‘‘No Rest for the Democratic Peace,’’ American Political Science Review 99 (2005): 453-72.

Dixon, ‘‘Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict.’’

Benoit, ‘‘Democracies Really Are More Pacific (in General).’’

J. Joseph Hewitt, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ted Robert Gurr, Peace and Conflict 2008 (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2008); and Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, ‘‘Incomplete Democratization and the Outbreak of Military Disputes,’’ International Studies Quarterly 46 ( 2002): 529-49.

Collier et al., Breaking the Conflict Trap.

For research that finds beneficial effects of democracy, see Bruce E. Moon and William J. Dixon, ‘‘Politics, the State, and Basic Human Needs: A Cross-National Study,’’ American Journal of Political Science 29 (1985): 661-93; and Thomas D. Zweifel and Patricio Navia, ‘‘Democracy, Dictatorship, and Infant Mortality,’’ Journal of Democracy 11 (2000): 99-114. For the selection effect argument, see Michael Ross, ‘‘Is Democracy Good for the Poor?’’ American Journal of Political Science 50 (2006): 860-74.

Benoit, ‘‘Democracies Really Are More Pacific (in General).’’

World Bank data concerning the armed forces and military expenditures are available starting only in 1985.

A. Reza, J.A. Mercy, and E. Krug, ‘‘Epidemiology of Violent Deaths in the World,’’ Injury Prevention 7 (2001): 104-11.

Håvard Strand, Lars Wilhelmsen, and Nils Petter Gleditsch, ‘‘Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook Version 3.0,’’ (2004), http://www.prio.no/sptrans/-1938717918/codebook_v3_0.pdf.

Stewart, FitzGerald, and Associates. War and Underdevelopment.

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, ‘‘Modified Polity P4 and P4D Data, Version 1.0’’ (2003), http://weber.ucsd.edu/~kgledits/Polity.html (accessed June 14, 2007).

J. Scott Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1997), chap. 8. For types of data appropriately analyzed as counts (including variables, such as the number of smoked cigarettes per day, that are expressed as number per time period), see Badi H. Baltagi, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 4th ed. (Chichester, UK: John Wiley, 2008), 226-35.

Paul D. Allison, ‘‘Using Panel Data to Estimate the Effects of Events,’’ Sociological Methods and Research 23 (1994): 174-99; and Charles N. Halaby, ‘‘Panel Models in Sociological Research: Theory into Practice,’’ Annual Review of Sociology 30 (2004): 507-44.

Allison, ‘‘Using Panel Data to Estimate the Effects of Events.’’

Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, chap. 8.

Gleditsch et al., ‘‘Armed Conflict 1946 to 2001.’’

Carlton-Ford, ‘‘The Impact of War, Adult HIV/AIDS, and Militarization on Young Children’s Mortality’’; and Carlton-Ford, Hamill, and Houston, ‘‘War and Children’s Mortality.’’

Kalyvas, ‘‘The Paradox of Violence in Civil War.’’

Samir Makdisi and Richard Sadaka, ‘‘The Lebanese Civil War, 1975-90,’’ in Collier and Sambanis, Understanding Civil War, vol. 2.

Stanislav Andreski, Military Organization and Society, 2nd ed. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968), Postscript to the Second Edition; Kirk Bowman, Militarization, Democracy, and Development: The Perils of Praetorianism in Latin America (University Park: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2002), chap. 6; and Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1977).